Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (10/31/2026): $39.08 | Market Cap: $10.3 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (10/31/2026): $39.08Market Cap: $10.3 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 8.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14% | Key risksAA key risks include [1] acute operational vulnerability to high energy costs and supply interruptions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 8.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14% |
| Key risksAA key risks include [1] acute operational vulnerability to high energy costs and supply interruptions, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Alcoa (AA) stock has lost about 25% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weakening Aluminum Prices Impacted Earnings. Alcoa's realized primary aluminum price declined by $225 per metric ton sequentially in fiscal Q3 2026, reaching $4,527. This decrease resulted in a significant $235 million unfavorable impact on adjusted EBITDA and led to a 9% sequential decline in the Aluminum segment's third-party revenue due to lower shipments and weaker average realized prices.
2. Fiscal Q3 2026 Revenue Miss. Alcoa reported revenue of $3.704 billion for fiscal Q3 2026, falling approximately 5% short of the analyst consensus estimate of $3.899 billion. This revenue shortfall was primarily attributed to the decline in the aluminum business.
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Alcoa (AA) stock has lost about 25% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weakening Aluminum Prices Impacted Earnings. Alcoa's realized primary aluminum price declined by $225 per metric ton sequentially in fiscal Q3 2026, reaching $4,527. This decrease resulted in a significant $235 million unfavorable impact on adjusted EBITDA and led to a 9% sequential decline in the Aluminum segment's third-party revenue due to lower shipments and weaker average realized prices.
2. Fiscal Q3 2026 Revenue Miss. Alcoa reported revenue of $3.704 billion for fiscal Q3 2026, falling approximately 5% short of the analyst consensus estimate of $3.899 billion. This revenue shortfall was primarily attributed to the decline in the aluminum business.
3. Analyst Price Target Reductions and Overvaluation Concerns. Several financial institutions lowered their price targets for Alcoa's stock during the period. For instance, Wells Fargo & Company reduced its price objective from $71.00 to $60.00 in September 2026, and UBS Group cut its target from $80.00 to $68.00 in June 2026. Additionally, the stock was considered modestly overvalued by 19.6% at a price of $40.42 relative to its GF Value™ of $33.80.
4. Debt Financing for AliGroup Acquisition. Alcoa completed a $2.6 billion aggregate principal amount senior notes offering in September 2026 to finance the pending acquisition of South32 Limited's interests in its bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets (AliGroup). This significant increase in debt to fund the roughly $3.1 billion cash consideration likely added pressure to the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.5% change in AA stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.90 | 39.19 | -24.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,655 | 14,312 | 13.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 10.7% | 30.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 6.8 | -48.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 264 | 264 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | -24.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 42.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 3.8% | 35.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -40.6% change in AA stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.92 | 39.19 | -40.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,831 | 14,312 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.0% | 10.7% | 18.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.8 | 6.8 | -54.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 259 | 264 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -40.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | -40.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 35.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 5.9% | 37.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.4% change in AA stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.55 | 39.19 | 20.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,777 | 14,312 | 12.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 10.7% | 35.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.4 | 6.8 | -19.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 259 | 264 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 20.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 19.3% | 43.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.9% change in AA stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 57.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.02 | 39.19 | 39.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,868 | 14,312 | 31.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.7 | 57.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 178 | 264 | -32.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 39.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 82.9% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 41.6% | 55.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AA Return | 159% | -23% | -24% | 12% | 42% | -26% | 79% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -13% | 29% | 17% | 65% | 14% | 216% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AA Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 44% | 50% | 53% | 69% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AA Max Drawdown | -29% | -64% | -58% | -37% | -43% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -48% | -37% | -32% | -31% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CENX, KALU, RS. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 544 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1193 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Alcoa's stock fell -37.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 544 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1193 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 960 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Alcoa's stock fell -37.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alcoa (AA)
Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a global leader in the production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum. The company operates across a vertically integrated value chain, starting with the mining of bauxite ore. This bauxite is then processed into alumina, a key industrial chemical, which Alcoa either sells to external customers or uses internally to produce primary aluminum through its smelting and casting businesses.
Alcoa's main products include bauxite, alumina, and various forms of primary aluminum ingot. These aluminum products are essential inputs for diverse industries such as transportation, building and construction, packaging, and wire manufacturing. In addition to its core metal production, Alcoa also owns and operates hydro power plants, generating and selling electricity to the wholesale market, serving a range of customers including traders, large industrial consumers, and distribution companies.
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The ExxonMobil of aluminum.
Like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) for the aluminum industry.
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- Bauxite: This is the raw ore mined by Alcoa, which is then processed into alumina.
- Alumina: An intermediate product derived from bauxite, sold to customers who process it into industrial chemical products or further into aluminum.
- Primary Aluminum: Offered in forms such as alloy ingot and value-add ingot, serving industries like transportation, building and construction, packaging, and wire.
- Electricity: Generated from Alcoa's owned hydropower plants and sold in the wholesale market to various consumers and companies.
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William F. Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
William F. Oplinger joined Alcoa in 2000 and has served as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a director since September 2023. Prior to his current role, he was Chief Operating Officer from February to September 2023, and Chief Financial Officer for Alcoa Corporation from 2016 to February 2023, and for Alcoa Inc. from 2013 to 2016. Mr. Oplinger has extensive experience leading Alcoa's finance function, overseeing treasury, pension, tax, controllership, financial planning and analysis, audit, investor relations, and transformation. He also served as Chief Operating Officer for Alcoa Global Primary Products, where he was responsible for the daily operations of its mining, refining, smelting, casting, and energy businesses, and oversaw significant restructuring efforts and the optimization of centers of excellence. Before joining Alcoa, he held engineering and management positions at Westinghouse and Emerson Electric.
Molly S. Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Molly S. Beerman was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective February 1, 2023. Prior to this, she served as Vice President and Controller for Alcoa Corporation since December 2016. Ms. Beerman is a seasoned financial executive known for her expertise in technical accounting, process improvement, and technology. She held various leadership roles with Alcoa Inc. from 2001 to 2012, including Director of Global Procurement Center of Excellence and Manager of North America Financial Accounting Services. She also served as Director of Global Shared Services Strategy and Solutions. From 2012 to 2015, she was Vice President of Finance and Administration for The Pittsburgh Foundation, a non-profit organization, and returned to Alcoa in 2015 in a consulting capacity for the finance department related to the separation transaction. Earlier in her career, she held financial management positions at Carnegie Mellon University, PNC Bank, and Deloitte.
Matthew T. Reed, Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Matthew T. Reed serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, responsible for the daily operations of Alcoa's global bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. He joined Alcoa in June 2023 as Vice President Operations, Australia and President, Alcoa of Australia.
Andrew Hastings, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Andrew Hastings is the Executive Vice President and General Counsel, overseeing Alcoa's global legal, security, compliance, and governance matters. Before joining Alcoa in September 2023, he served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel at Lundin Mining Corporation from February 2019 to August 2023.
Renato Bacchi, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Renato Bacchi is the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, leading the company’s sales and trading, marketing, supply chain, commercial operations, procurement, and transformation initiatives. He also oversees Alcoa's global energy assets and breakthrough technology programs. He was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer effective February 1, 2022, and previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer.
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The key risks to Alcoa's business include the volatility of commodity prices and energy costs, geopolitical factors and trade policies, and increasing environmental regulations.
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Commodity Price Volatility and High Energy Costs
Alcoa's profitability is highly sensitive to the volatile market prices of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum, its primary products. As an energy-intensive industry, aluminum production is also significantly impacted by fluctuations in electricity and natural gas prices, which represent a substantial portion of Alcoa's production costs. This dual exposure to both input and output price volatility makes the company vulnerable to market swings.
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Geopolitical Risks, Trade Restrictions, and Tariffs
Geopolitical issues, trade sanctions, and tariffs pose a significant risk to Alcoa's global operations. Such factors can disrupt supply chains for raw materials like bauxite and alumina, lead to increased transportation costs, and affect market access. For example, US tariffs on imported aluminum can directly increase costs for the company's Aluminum segment.
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Environmental Regulations and Compliance Costs
The aluminum industry faces mounting scrutiny regarding its environmental footprint, particularly concerning greenhouse gas emissions from its energy-intensive production processes. Alcoa is subject to evolving environmental regulations, which necessitate substantial capital expenditure for compliance and asset optimization. Adherence to stricter environmental policies, including those related to water pollution and land use from mining activities, can lead to increased operating expenses and impact profitability.
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Alcoa Corporation operates in three main segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. The addressable markets for these products are global.
- Bauxite: The global bauxite market size was estimated at approximately USD 16.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach about USD 20.45 billion by 2034. Another estimate places the global bauxite market size at USD 17.1 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 21.5 billion by 2034. Asia-Pacific is the dominating region in the bauxite market.
- Alumina: The global alumina market size was estimated at over USD 40 billion in 2020 and is anticipated to grow to USD 46.53 billion by 2030. More recent estimates indicate the global alumina market size was approximately USD 46.83 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 70.8 billion by 2034. Smelter-grade alumina (SGA), which Alcoa produces, accounts for over 92% of global alumina demand. The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the alumina market.
- Aluminum: The global aluminum market size was estimated at USD 178.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 315.5 billion by 2034. Other estimations include a market size of USD 199.83 billion in 2024, growing to USD 307.36 billion by 2033, and USD 190.98 billion in 2025, increasing to approximately USD 347.29 billion by 2035. The Asia Pacific region accounts for the largest share of the global aluminum market.
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Alcoa Corporation (AA) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Increasing Global Aluminum Demand: The demand for aluminum is expected to grow significantly due to global trends in electrification, decarbonization, and digital infrastructure. Aluminum is a critical component in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems (like solar panels and wind turbines), modern power grids, and data centers. Additionally, traditional sectors such as transportation, building and construction, and packaging continue to drive demand.
- Enhanced Production Capacity and Shipments: Alcoa anticipates increased aluminum production and shipment volumes resulting from the restart of key smelters. Notably, the San Ciprián smelter in Spain is on track for a full restart by mid-2026, contributing to higher output. Increased production from other facilities, such as Alumar in Brazil and Lista in Norway, is also expected to boost overall capacity.
- Favorable Aluminum Pricing and Premiums: Positive market dynamics, including strong aluminum prices and regional premiums, are projected to contribute to revenue growth. Factors such as U.S. Section 232 tariffs and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe are expected to support higher Midwest premiums and overall aluminum pricing. Geopolitical tensions have also played a role in recent increases in global aluminum prices.
- Strategic Monetization of Non-Core Assets: Alcoa is actively pursuing a strategy to monetize its closed or curtailed industrial sites, including selling them to data center developers. The company expects to complete the first sale of these sites by June 2026, creating a new revenue stream by repurposing legacy assets for emerging digital infrastructure needs.
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Share Repurchases
- In July 2022, Alcoa announced an additional $500 million share repurchase program, with $275 million utilized in the second quarter of 2022.
- As of October 2025, approximately $500 million remained in the share repurchase plan, contingent on the availability of excess cash.
- Over the five-year period ending December 2025, Alcoa's 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio was -8.00%, indicating a net increase in outstanding shares despite repurchase authorizations.
Share Issuance
- In August 2024, Alcoa completed an all-stock acquisition of Alumina Limited, resulting in a significant issuance of Alcoa shares.
- As part of this transaction, 2,760,056,014 Alumina Limited shares were exchanged for 78,772,422 shares of Alcoa common stock on August 1, 2024.
- The company's shares outstanding increased by 20.22% in 2024 to 0.214 billion and by 22.06% in 2025 to 0.261 billion, largely due to the Alumina Limited acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, Alcoa acquired the remaining 40% interest in Alumina Limited, consolidating 100% ownership of the Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC) joint venture, for an implied consideration of approximately $2.7 billion in an all-stock transaction.
- In July 2025, Alcoa sold its 25.1% ownership interest in the Ma'aden Joint Venture to the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) for approximately $1.35 billion, comprising 86 million Ma'aden shares (valued at $1.2 billion) and $150 million in cash.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2024 were $580 million.
- For the full year 2025, Alcoa's capital expenditures were $618 million, primarily focused on operational efficiency and strategic asset management.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be $750 million, with a focus on smelter restarts and modernization efforts, including approximately $60 million through 2028 for the anode baking furnace at the Massena smelter.
Peer Outperformance in Aluminum
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel | 14 | 25.8% | 48.3% | 138.2% | STLD 308% · HCC 297% · RS 224% |
| Copper | 7 | 35.9% | 103.0% | 132.9% | SCCO 265% · TGB 249% · HBM 215% |
| Gold | 36 | -1.7% | 157.5% | 91.5% | IAG 458% · OGC 344% · AGI 283% |
| Silver | 6 | 15.9% | 236.6% | 68.9% | AYA 209% · HL 139% · EXK 43% |
| Construction Materials | 6 | -11.3% | 34.4% | 47.9% | USLM 360% · CRH 102% · VMC 54% |
| Aluminum ← | 3 | 13.7% | 126.6% | 43.5% | CENX 155% · AA -10% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | 7.5% | 16.3% | 9.2% | GEF 49% · ATR 21% · SLGN 9% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 25.1% | 23.1% | 0.8% | PKG 117% · CCK 21% · SON 4% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 23 | -55.2% | -5.8% | -10.0% | USAR 32182% · MTRN 215% · MP 17% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 3 | 12.8% | 4.8% | -14.0% | CBT 55% · ASH -14% · CC -43% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 11.9% | 8.4% | -17.2% | NEU 155% · ESI 61% · ECL 44% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 13 | 3.9% | -14.7% | -33.4% | HWKN 336% · MEOH 74% · DOW -18% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | -17.8% | 132.3% | -48.9% | PPTA 250% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -42.6% | -54.5% | -60.7% | CF 141% · NTR 18% · SMG -49% |
| Paper Products | 4 | -39.4% | -61.7% | -82.6% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| What Could Fuel a Real Turnaround for Alcoa Stock? | 07/17/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock In Shambles: Down 24% With 8-Day Losing Streak | 06/25/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock Plummets 20% With 7-Day Losing Streak | 06/24/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 6-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls 15% | 06/23/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock Surges 19%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree | 05/27/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 14% | 05/23/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 5-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls 16% | 03/24/2026 | |
| Alcoa Earnings Notes | 12/26/2025 | |
| With Alcoa Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Can Alcoa Stock Jump 50%? | 10/30/2026 | |
| What Could Fuel A Real Turnaround For Alcoa Stock? | 07/17/2026 | |
| The Two Speeds Of Alcoa Stock | 07/02/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock In Shambles: Down -24% With 8-Day Losing Streak | 06/25/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 7-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls -20% | 06/24/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 77.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 9,409 |
| Op Inc LTM | 955 |
| FCF LTM | 322 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 234 |
| CFO LTM | 571 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 613 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 33.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 80.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 150.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.1 |
| Total Yield | 15.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -34.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 103.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -41.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 8,379 | 7,246 | 6,940 | 8,762 | 8,784 |
| Alumina | 6,557 | 6,925 | 5,261 | 5,432 | 4,927 |
| Other | 25 | 3 | 13 | -8 | 11 |
| Elimination of intersegment sales | -2,130 | -2,279 | -1,663 | -1,735 | -1,570 |
| Total | 12,831 | 11,895 | 10,551 | 12,451 | 12,152 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 6,151 | 6,129 | 5,854 | 6,358 | 6,251 |
| Alumina | 5,671 | 6,138 | 6,153 | 4,447 | 4,385 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,597 | 1,138 | 944 | 1,363 | 1,814 |
| Noncurrent marketable securities | 1,397 | 0 | |||
| Deferred income taxes | 687 | 284 | 333 | 296 | 506 |
| Corporate fixed assets, net | 414 | 366 | 392 | 364 | 374 |
| Other | 243 | 106 | 371 | 364 | 222 |
| Pension assets | 131 | 128 | 125 | 146 | 164 |
| Corporate goodwill | 0 | 139 | 142 | 141 | 140 |
| Elimination of intersegment receivables | -162 | -364 | -159 | -197 | -261 |
| Bauxite | 1,474 | 1,430 | |||
| Total | 16,129 | 14,064 | 14,155 | 14,756 | 15,025 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $39.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/07/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -53.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $44.55 | $56.13 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -12.0% | -30.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 41.4% | 53.2% |
| Downside Capture | 186.14 | 210.08 |
| Upside Capture | 88.78 | 186.89 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 35.2% | 39.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.93 | 1.27 | 1.76 | 1.43 | 1.68 | 1.66 |
| Up Beta | 0.38 | 1.16 | 1.97 | -0.73 | 0.49 | 1.38 |
| Down Beta | -1.85 | 1.10 | 2.03 | 2.91 | 1.57 | 1.66 |
| Up Capture | 46% | 101% | 109% | 100% | 364% | 736% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 19 | 29 | 60 | 124 | 372 |
| Down Capture | 300% | 187% | 225% | 229% | 155% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 22 | 34 | 65 | 127 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 1.8% | 53.2% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 22.5% | 17.6% | 0.98 | 42.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 38.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | 43.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | 17.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | -4.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.3% | 43.5% | -0.71 | 22.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | -3.4% | 55.0% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.5% | 19.1% | 0.22 | 59.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 28.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 35.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 35.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.8% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 24.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 6.0% | 55.3% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.5% | 20.7% | 0.45 | 60.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 51.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 19.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 39.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 36.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 19.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/26/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/15/2026 | 2.5% | -4.3% | |
| 7/16/2026 | -6.1% | -3.4% | 6.9% |
| 4/16/2026 | -6.8% | -7.2% | -11.2% |
| 1/22/2026 | -1.5% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
| 10/22/2025 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
| 4/16/2025 | -7.0% | 5.5% | 17.3% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.7% | -9.4% | -11.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 17 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 5.5% | 15.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -8.3% | -10.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 13.4% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/15/2026 | 2.5% | -4.3% | |
| 7/16/2026 | -6.1% | -3.4% | 6.9% |
| 4/16/2026 | -6.8% | -7.2% | -11.2% |
| 1/22/2026 | -1.5% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
| 10/22/2025 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
| 4/16/2025 | -7.0% | 5.5% | 17.3% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.7% | -9.4% | -11.3% |
| 10/16/2024 | -4.1% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 7/17/2024 | -3.2% | -10.8% | -12.5% |
| 4/17/2024 | -0.2% | 1.5% | 12.9% |
| 1/17/2024 | -1.6% | 9.5% | 0.8% |
| 10/18/2023 | -8.6% | -10.1% | -1.5% |
| 7/19/2023 | -6.2% | 0.0% | -16.2% |
| 4/19/2023 | -2.4% | -14.0% | -10.4% |
| 1/18/2023 | -7.4% | -2.4% | -8.8% |
| 10/19/2022 | 3.4% | 13.4% | 26.2% |
| 7/20/2022 | 0.2% | 6.0% | 19.7% |
| 4/20/2022 | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
| 1/19/2022 | 2.7% | 1.9% | 28.2% |
| 10/14/2021 | 15.2% | 2.9% | 7.1% |
| 7/15/2021 | -4.6% | 7.8% | 31.0% |
| 4/15/2021 | 8.5% | 1.1% | 20.9% |
| 1/20/2021 | -12.4% | -18.3% | 1.3% |
| 10/14/2020 | -5.4% | 2.5% | 20.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 17 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 5.5% | 15.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -8.3% | -10.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 13.4% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/26/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/15/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Other Income | Reported | |||||||
| Q4 2026 Operational Tax Expense | Reported | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | -17.6% | Lower New | Guidance: 85.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Segment Production | Reported | 9.50 Mil | 9.55 Mil | 9.60 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.55 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Segment Shipments | Reported | 11.50 Mil | 11.55 Mil | 11.60 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.55 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Production | Reported | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Shipments | Reported | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.70 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest Expense | Reported | 185.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Operational Tax Expense | Reported | 80.00 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | -26.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 115.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Production | Reported | 9.50 Mil | 9.55 Mil | 9.60 Mil | -2.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.80 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Shipments | Reported | 11.50 Mil | 11.55 Mil | 11.60 Mil | -2.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 11.90 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Production | Reported | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Shipments | Reported | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.70 Mil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Alumina Segment Production | Reported | 9.70 Mil | 9.80 Mil | 9.90 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.80 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Segment Shipments | Reported | 11.80 Mil | 11.90 Mil | 12.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.90 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Production | Reported | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Shipments | Reported | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.70 Mil for 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operational Tax Expense | Reported | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 64.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 70.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Operational tax expense | Reported | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 55.6% | Higher New | Actual: 45.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Alumina segment production | Reported | 9.70 Mil | 9.80 Mil | 9.90 Mil | 2.1% | Higher New | Actual: 9.60 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Alumina shipments | Reported | 11.80 Mil | 11.90 Mil | 12.00 Mil | -9.8% | Lower New | Actual: 13.20 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Aluminum segment production | Reported | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 4.2% | Higher New | Actual: 2.40 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Aluminum shipments | Reported | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 5.9% | Higher New | Actual: 2.55 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bacchi, Renato | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 51.02 | 700 | 35,714 | 3,822,876 | Form |
| 2 | Jones, Tammi A | EVP & CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 50.60 | 15,628 | 790,733 | 2,014,730 | Form |
| 3 | Hastings, Andrew | EVP & Gen. Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 50.90 | 6,000 | 305,412 | 1,910,454 | Form |
| 4 | Reed, Matthew T | EVP, Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 46.82 | 4,600 | 215,372 | 3,360,271 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bacchi, Renato | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 51.02 | 700 | 35,714 | 3,822,876 | Form |
| 2 | Jones, Tammi A | EVP & CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 50.60 | 15,628 | 790,733 | 2,014,730 | Form |
| 3 | Hastings, Andrew | EVP & Gen. Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 50.90 | 6,000 | 305,412 | 1,910,454 | Form |
| 4 | Reed, Matthew T | EVP, Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 46.82 | 4,600 | 215,372 | 3,360,271 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 31, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $45.4 Mil | 12.2% | 6 | ADD +8.7% | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.7 Mil | 11.2% | 14 | TRIM -54.9% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $59.9 Mil | 1.9% | 44 | TRIM -72.3% | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $7.3 Mil | 1.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $59.9 Mil | 1.9% | 44 | TRIM -72.3% | 13F |
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $45.4 Mil | 12.2% | 6 | ADD +8.7% | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.7 Mil | 11.2% | 14 | TRIM -54.9% | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $7.3 Mil | 1.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
AA Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on a tight aluminum market with historically low inventories. Alcoa's profitability is inflecting, led by its Aluminum segment's $862 million adjusted EBITDA in Q3. However, significant operating expense growth of 46.2% year-over-year presents a material risk to margins if commodity prices soften.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity Producer(Volume of tons sold) x (Market Price [LME/API] + Regional/Product Premiums) The spread between realized commodity prices and the cost of production, particularly energy and key raw materials.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a favorable supply/demand backdrop supporting prices and profitability.
- Latest-quarter revenue grew 23.7% year-over-year, accelerating from 11.2% on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
- The Aluminum segment generated $862 million in Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2026.
- Global aluminum inventories remain historically low at approximately 42 days of consumption.
- The alumina market is tightening outside China, with the API price index rising sequentially.
- The company's order book is solid with most products sold out or tightly committed for 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
Operating expenses are growing significantly faster than revenue, which could erase pricing gains and compress profitability, especially if the commodity cycle turns.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating expenses grew 46.2% year-over-year, far outpacing 11.2% revenue growth.
- Q4 2026 guidance anticipates higher production and raw material costs.
- The Alumina segment reported an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $1 million in Q3 2026.
- Management missed a key deadline, pushing Australian mine approvals into 2027.
- Basic share count has increased by 48.3% over the last three years, indicating dilution.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Aluminum Segment Shipments & Realized Price | 693 kmt in shipments and an average realized price of $4,527 per metric ton for the third quarter of 2026. - Stable | The Aluminum segment is experiencing strong year-over-year growth driven by significantly higher prices. The sequential decline in Q3 reflects a normalization from a particularly strong Q2 and moderating metal prices from recent highs, rather than a structural weakening of demand. |
| Alumina Segment Shipments & Realized Price | 1,652 kmt in shipments and an average realized price of $353 per metric ton for the third quarter of 2026. - Turning around | The Alumina segment is showing a clear sequential improvement in both volume and price after a period of year-over-year weakness. Management commentary points to recovering demand and supply-side constraints supporting this positive momentum. |
Market Tailwinds vs. Internal Cost Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the tight ex-China market and low inventories provide pricing power that will more than offset rising costs, driving strong earnings and cash flow.
CORE TENSION
Can strong realized prices, with aluminum at $4,527/ton, overcome severe cost inflation, where opex growth is outpacing revenue growth by more than four-to-one?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls, cautiously. The market reacted positively to Q3 results, rewarding the strong Aluminum segment profitability and the turnaround in the Alumina segment's volumes and pricing.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that opex growth of 46.2% is unsustainable and signals a loss of cost control that will crush margins as soon as aluminum prices inevitably moderate.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 13, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share will be paid. |
1/20/2027 | Margin Squeeze From Costs Watch: Q4 operating margin results versus expectations and any commentary on the persistence of cost inflation into 2027. |
1/20/2027 | Next Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
2/16/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer company Reliance (RS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/16/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer company Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Australian Mine Approval Newsflow Watch: Announcements from the Western Australia EPA or the company regarding the Myara North, Holyoake, or rolling five-year mine plans. |
No set date | Commodity Price Weakness Watch: London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices and regional premiums (e.g., Midwest premium), which directly impact revenue and profitability. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-15 | Reported Strong Q3 Results Details: The stock reacted positively, with a two-day reaction of 3.0%. | +3.4% $39.98 -> $41.34 |
2026-09-09 | Completed Major Debt Offering Details: The company announced the pricing and closing of a $2.6 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes to finance the cash portion of the South32 asset acquisition. | -6.6% $51.61 -> $48.18 |
2026-07-16 | Reported Record Quarterly Revenue Details: The company reported second quarter 2026 results that included record quarterly revenue. The stock reacted negatively, falling -9.0% over the two days around the earnings call. | -9.5% $48.36 -> $43.78 |
2026-07-14 | Launched Gallium Joint Venture Details: Partners announced the final investment decision for a gallium production plant in Western Australia. The company contributed $24 million to the joint venture. | -0.3% $48.50 -> $48.36 |
2026-06-30 | Announced Transformative Acquisition Details: The company entered a definitive agreement to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for $4.1 billion in a cash and stock transaction. | -11.2% $53.23 -> $47.27 |
2026-05-11 | Announced Major Capital Investment Details: The company announced a $65 million investment to expand foundry production capabilities at its Mosjøen smelter in Norway. | +7.0% $62.79 -> $67.21 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AA trades at roughly 41% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (4.0x the market). A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
RS - Reliance
Scale and Margin LeaderReliance offers greater scale with $17.4 billion in revenue and superior gross margins of 28.1% compared to Alcoa's 21.9%, suggesting a more efficient cost structure.
CENX - Century Aluminum
Higher Operating MarginCentury Aluminum demonstrates a superior operating margin of 14.6% versus Alcoa's 11.4%, indicating a potentially more profitable operational model at a smaller scale.
A low-cost, vertically integrated commodity producer whose earnings are highly leveraged to global aluminum/alumina prices and regional supply-demand imbalances.
Alcoa is a pure-play upstream aluminum company whose profitability swings with the cyclicality of commodity markets. Recent performance has been strong, driven by high aluminum prices and tight market conditions. The company is focused on operational stability, cost discipline, and is advancing a large acquisition (AliGroup) to increase scale. Its financial health is directly tied to the LME and API price indices.
Sustained or rising LME and API prices, strengthening regional premiums, successful and accretive integration of the AliGroup acquisition, and progress on its asset monetization strategy.
A global economic slowdown causing a collapse in commodity prices, a supply glut from new capacity in Indonesia or China, or significant operational disruptions at key facilities.
Short-term stock price volatility that is disconnected from underlying commodity price trends and supply/demand fundamentals.
Repricing Catalyst
The pending acquisition of AliGroup, expected to close in the first half of 2027, which will significantly increase the company's scale and is expected to be accretive to earnings and cash flow.
Alumina
$6.6B TTM (51% of Total)What It Is
This segment operates global bauxite mining and alumina refining systems. It sells bauxite to external customers and uses it internally. It sells alumina to internal and external aluminum smelters, as well as to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products.
Who Pays & How
External aluminum smelters and industrial chemical companies pay for alumina as a critical raw material for their production processes. Customers partner with Alcoa due to its low-cost position and reputation as a reliable supplier of choice for long-term partnerships.
Competition
Aluminum
$8.4B TTM (65% of Total)What It Is
This segment consists of a worldwide smelting and casthouse system that processes alumina into primary aluminum, as well as a portfolio of energy assets. It sells commodity-grade and value-add aluminum products (foundry, billet, rod, slab) to external customers and traders for use in transportation, building, packaging, and other industrial markets.
Who Pays & How
Fabrication companies and traders pay for primary aluminum products. Customers choose Alcoa for its regional presence in key deficit markets (North America and Europe), reliable supply, and a differentiated, value-add product portfolio.
Competition
Alcoa — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Aluminum Resources |
| Light Metal Age |
| Aluminium International Today |
| The Aluminum Association |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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