Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $285.39 | Market Cap: $36.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials
Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $285.39Market Cap: $36.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Construction Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -30% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 25x Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7% Key risksVMC key risks include [1] financial and reputational exposure from specific environmental liabilities, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -30% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 25x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7% |
| Key risksVMC key risks include [1] financial and reputational exposure from specific environmental liabilities, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Earnings Performance and Optimistic Outlook Supported Investor Confidence. Vulcan Materials reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.83 for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.81. Despite a revenue miss, the company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $707 million, with adjusted margins expanding 20 basis points to 32.3%. Management maintained its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook of approximately $2.4 billion and projected another year of earnings growth in 2027, anticipating mid- to high-single-digit pricing gains for aggregates. This demonstrated operational resilience and a positive future trajectory, contributing significantly to the stock's appreciation.
2. Robust Aggregates Pricing Power Offset Volume Declines. The company demonstrated strong pricing power in its core aggregates segment, with average selling prices improving by 5% year-over-year, despite a 3% decrease in aggregates shipments. This ability to increase prices effectively, even with muted demand in some areas, highlighted the company's market position and helped expand profitability margins despite persistent energy cost headwinds.
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Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Earnings Performance and Optimistic Outlook Supported Investor Confidence. Vulcan Materials reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.83 for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.81. Despite a revenue miss, the company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $707 million, with adjusted margins expanding 20 basis points to 32.3%. Management maintained its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook of approximately $2.4 billion and projected another year of earnings growth in 2027, anticipating mid- to high-single-digit pricing gains for aggregates. This demonstrated operational resilience and a positive future trajectory, contributing significantly to the stock's appreciation.
2. Robust Aggregates Pricing Power Offset Volume Declines. The company demonstrated strong pricing power in its core aggregates segment, with average selling prices improving by 5% year-over-year, despite a 3% decrease in aggregates shipments. This ability to increase prices effectively, even with muted demand in some areas, highlighted the company's market position and helped expand profitability margins despite persistent energy cost headwinds.
3. Strategic Capital Allocation, Including Substantial Share Repurchases, Enhanced Shareholder Value. Vulcan Materials returned $417 million to shareholders in fiscal Q3 2026, which included $350 million in common stock buybacks. These significant share repurchases can boost EPS by reducing the number of outstanding shares. Additionally, the company completed two strategic bolt-on acquisitions in Tennessee and southern Ohio, expanding its operational footprint.
4. Sustained Demand from Public Infrastructure and Data Center Construction Provided Key Growth Drivers. The company benefited from ongoing public construction activity, especially in highway and infrastructure projects. Furthermore, strong demand from the rapidly expanding data center market and power infrastructure projects provided crucial support for aggregates shipments, with data center construction spending estimated to increase approximately 49% in 2026. These macroeconomic tailwinds helped offset softness in residential construction.
5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets. Following the Q3 2026 earnings report, several analysts raised their price targets for Vulcan Materials. Stephens increased its price target from $285.00 to $315.00 with an "overweight" rating, and B. Riley Financial raised its target from $300.00 to $315.00 with a "buy" rating. Citi also raised its target to $326.00. The consensus rating for VMC remained a "Moderate Buy" with an average price target ranging between $308.78 and $315.00, suggesting potential upside from current levels.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.9% change in VMC stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 268.07 | 289.14 | 7.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,116 | 8,009 | -1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.7% | 13.8% | 0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.2 | 33.8 | 8.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 130 | 129 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VMC | 7.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.7% | 28.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 6.4% | 71.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.8% change in VMC stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 300.58 | 289.14 | -3.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,062 | 8,009 | -0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 13.8% | -0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.3 | 33.8 | -4.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 131 | 129 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VMC | -3.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 24.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 4.7% | 71.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.6% change in VMC stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.3% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 287.35 | 289.14 | 0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,882 | 8,009 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 13.8% | -2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.9 | 33.8 | -0.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 132 | 129 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VMC | 0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | 33.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 27.0% | 64.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.5% change in VMC stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 192.16 | 289.14 | 50.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,680 | 8,009 | 4.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.7% | 13.8% | 28.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.0 | 33.8 | 9.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 133 | 129 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VMC | 50.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.0% | 46.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 48.8% | 60.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VMC Return | 41% | -15% | 31% | 14% | 12% | 2% | 104% |
| Peers Return | 49% | -23% | 63% | 29% | 3% | -14% | 114% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VMC Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 39% | 66% | 58% | 62% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VMC Max Drawdown | -14% | -32% | -17% | -16% | -20% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -38% | -17% | -19% | -29% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MLM, CRH, EXP, KNF. See VMC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 196 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Vulcan Materials's stock fell -16.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | VMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 196 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 914 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2159 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.2% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2921 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Vulcan Materials's stock fell -16.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) is a prominent producer and supplier of construction aggregates, primarily operating across the United States. Its core business centers on providing foundational raw materials essential for various infrastructure and construction projects nationwide.
The company's main products and services encompass a broad range of construction materials. This includes crushed stones, sand, gravel, and other aggregates crucial for the construction and maintenance of highways, streets, public works, housing, and commercial and industrial facilities. Additionally, Vulcan Materials produces asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete, extending its reach into paving activities and the supply of concrete for structural applications, catering to both public sector projects and private commercial and residential developments.
Beyond its primary focus on construction materials, Vulcan Materials also operates a Calcium segment. This segment mines, produces, and sells calcium products for specialized industrial uses, including the animal feed, plastics, and water treatment industries. The company, headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama, maintains a significant operational footprint that primarily serves diverse markets throughout the U.S. construction and industrial sectors.
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Vulcan Materials is like **Nucor**, but for essential construction aggregates and concrete instead of steel.
Vulcan Materials is like **Home Depot** or **Lowe's**, but for bulk infrastructure and large-scale building materials.
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- Construction Aggregates: Crushed stones, sand, and gravel used in the construction and maintenance of infrastructure, housing, and commercial facilities.
- Asphalt Mix: Asphalt material provided for paving and other construction applications.
- Asphalt Paving: Construction services involving the application of asphalt in paving activities.
- Ready-Mixed Concrete: Concrete material supplied for immediate use in various construction projects.
- Calcium Products: Mined and produced calcium products for use in the animal feed, plastics, and water treatment industries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than individuals. Based on the provided company description, Vulcan Materials supplies foundational materials for construction and industrial applications. The company's major customers fall into broad categories within these sectors, as specific customer names are not disclosed in the background information.
The major categories of customers for Vulcan Materials Company are:
- Construction and Infrastructure Contractors: These companies purchase crushed stones, sand, gravel, asphalt mix, and ready-mixed concrete for various projects. This category includes a wide range of businesses involved in the construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as the construction of residential housing, commercial facilities, and industrial sites.
- Specialty Paving Contractors: Within the construction sector, companies specializing in asphalt construction and paving activities are direct customers for Vulcan's asphalt mix products and services.
- Industrial Manufacturers: For its Calcium segment, Vulcan Materials sells calcium products to companies in specific industrial sectors, including the animal feed industry, plastics manufacturing, and water treatment facilities.
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Ronnie A. Pruitt, Chief Executive Officer
Ronnie A. Pruitt became Chief Executive Officer of Vulcan Materials Company on January 1, 2026. He joined Vulcan in August 2021 as part of the company's acquisition of U.S. Concrete, Inc. Prior to joining Vulcan, he served as President and Chief Executive Officer of U.S. Concrete, where he held various leadership roles, including chief operating officer and senior vice president, since 2015. Mr. Pruitt began his career as an entrepreneur.
Mary Andrews Carlisle, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mary Andrews Carlisle is senior vice president and chief financial officer for Vulcan Materials Company. She joined Vulcan in May 2006 and has held various leadership roles within the company's accounting and finance departments. Before her current position, Ms. Carlisle was vice president of finance, and also served as vice president of financial planning, analysis and reporting, vice president of business development, and vice president of finance for the Company's Southern and Gulf Coast Division.
Thompson S. Baker II, President
Thompson S. Baker II is president for Vulcan Materials Company. Prior to his current role, Mr. Baker served as chief operating officer and as senior vice president with management responsibility for several divisions. Before that, he was president and chief executive officer of Patriot Transportation Holding, Inc. and Florida Rock Properties. Mr. Baker also served as president of Vulcan's Florida Rock Division from 2008 to 2010 and spent 24 years in various leadership capacities at Florida Rock Industries, Inc., before its acquisition by Vulcan in 2007.
Stanley G. Bass, Chief Strategy Officer
Stanley G. Bass serves as Chief Strategy Officer for Vulcan Materials Company. He has held various operations and general management assignments since joining the company in 1996. Before his current role, Mr. Bass was senior vice president of the West Region, and he also served as senior vice president of the Central Region and president of the Midsouth and Southwest Divisions.
Jerry F. Perkins, Senior Vice President, Business Development, Commercial Excellence, Land and Logistics
Jerry F. Perkins holds the title of Senior Vice President, Business Development, Commercial Excellence, Land and Logistics. He has a bachelor's degree in accounting from the University of Alabama and a law degree from the University of Alabama School of Law. Mr. Perkins serves on the board of directors for the Birmingham Zoo and the Greater Alabama Council of the Boy Scouts of America.
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The key risks for Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) primarily stem from its deep ties to the cyclical nature of the construction industry and the operational demands of its business. These include:
- Dependence on Construction Industry Cycles and Public Infrastructure Spending: Vulcan Materials' business is highly reliant on activity within the construction industry, which is inherently cyclical and sensitive to economic conditions, interest rates, demographic shifts, and overall financial health. A downturn in construction spending, particularly in the company's key markets, could materially impact its revenue and profitability. Furthermore, a significant portion of the company's products are used in public infrastructure projects (highways, bridges, etc.), making it susceptible to the timing and amount of federal, state, and local government funding for such initiatives. Weak investor confidence can also lead to reduced project starts, directly lowering aggregate consumption.
- Regulatory and Environmental Scrutiny: As a major producer of construction aggregates, asphalt, and concrete, Vulcan Materials operates in an industry subject to extensive and increasing regulatory oversight. This includes environmental regulations concerning climate change, land use, air emissions, water discharges, and waste management. Challenges in securing and maintaining permits for new quarry sites or existing operations, as well as the potential for stricter environmental standards, could lead to increased operational costs, delays, or limitations on expansion.
- Fluctuations in Input Costs and Operational Efficiency: The production of asphalt and concrete is energy-intensive, and the company's operations depend on raw materials and fuel sources such as electricity, natural gas, and diesel. Volatility in the prices of these input costs, including crude oil for asphalt binder, can significantly impact Vulcan Materials' cost of goods sold and, consequently, its profit margins. Maintaining exceptional operational efficiency and cost discipline is crucial for the company to sustain its margin expansion and navigate pricing pressures within a competitive industry landscape.
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Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) operates in several key markets across the United States. The estimated addressable market sizes for their main products and services are as follows:
- Aggregates: The U.S. aggregates market was valued at approximately USD 164.65 billion in 2024. This market is anticipated to reach USD 170.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 222.24 billion by 2033.
- Asphalt Mix: The market size for Asphalt Manufacturing in the U.S. was an estimated USD 36.1 billion in 2024, with a projected increase to USD 36.7 billion in 2025.
- Ready-mixed Concrete: The U.S. ready-mix concrete market was valued at over USD 130 billion in 2024.
- Calcium Products: For calcium products, specifically calcium carbonate which has applications in industries like plastics and construction, the U.S. market size was USD 8.7 billion in 2024.
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For Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), several key drivers are expected to fuel future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Public Construction Demand and Infrastructure Spending: A significant tailwind for Vulcan Materials is the ongoing robust public construction activity, heavily influenced by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). This multi-year federal funding is expected to continue driving elevated demand for aggregates, particularly for highways, streets, bridges, and other public works through 2026 and 2027. Approximately 60% of the IIJA funds are still to be spent, ensuring a long tail of public strength.
- Strong Aggregates Pricing Power: Vulcan Materials has consistently demonstrated its ability to implement price increases for its aggregates, with management forecasting 4-6% growth in freight-adjusted average selling prices for aggregates in 2026. This pricing discipline is a key component of their strategy to enhance profitability and revenue.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Portfolio Optimization: The company actively pursues strategic bolt-on acquisitions to expand its aggregates reserves and strengthen its market position in high-growth regions. Furthermore, Vulcan Materials engages in portfolio optimization, including divestitures of non-core assets like certain ready-mixed concrete operations, to sharpen its focus on the aggregates-led strategy and deploy capital effectively towards growth projects.
- Operational Efficiencies and Technology Adoption: Investments in "The Vulcan Way of Operating" and "The Vulcan Way of Selling" through technology integration and operational enhancements are anticipated to boost quarry productivity, improve logistics, and refine processing equipment. These initiatives aim to enhance cash gross profit per ton, control costs, and improve overall margins, indirectly supporting top-line growth through improved competitiveness and capacity.
- Improving Private Non-Residential Construction Demand: While public demand leads, Vulcan Materials expects an improving trend in private non-residential construction activity to complement the robust public sector. This diversified demand across both public and private sectors provides revenue resilience amidst cyclical market flows.
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Share Repurchases
- Vulcan Materials engaged in aggressive share repurchases between 2022 and 2025.
- In 2024, the company repurchased $69 million of common stock.
- For the full year 2025, share repurchases amounted to $438 million, including $400.20 million in the quarter ending December 31, 2025.
Share Issuance
- Information regarding significant share issuances for Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama, is not available within the provided search results for the specified timeframe.
Inbound Investments
- No specific large inbound investments made in Vulcan Materials by third-parties were identified in the provided information for the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- In 2021, Vulcan Materials acquired U.S. Concrete for $1.3 billion, which significantly expanded its aggregates-led business and concrete markets.
- The company acquired Wake Stone in September 2024 and Superior Ready Mix in December 2024, strengthening its presence in North Carolina and California, respectively, through additional aggregates operations, concrete plants, and asphalt facilities.
- Since 2022, Vulcan Materials' capital deployment has included approximately $3 billion in acquisitions.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $678 million.
Peer Outperformance in Construction Materials
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | 1.5% | 33.8x | 0.6% | 42.3% | 54.3% | — |
| CRH | CRH | 4.7% | 18.0x | -17.7% | 79.9% | 109.8% | +56pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel | 14 | 21.4% | 46.4% | 148.8% | STLD 332% · HCC 262% · RS 222% |
| Copper | 7 | 36.2% | 100.8% | 141.1% | SCCO 265% · TGB 237% · HBM 226% |
| Gold | 36 | 3.3% | 154.6% | 91.8% | IAG 476% · OGC 350% · AGI 280% |
| Silver | 6 | 19.2% | 217.7% | 72.7% | AYA 245% · HL 135% · EXK 45% |
| Construction Materials ← | 6 | -7.5% | 26.8% | 47.0% | USLM 380% · CRH 110% · VMC 54% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 13.2% | 118.4% | 42.1% | CENX 154% · AA -11% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | 12.7% | 18.9% | 12.5% | GEF 51% · ATR 20% · SLGN 13% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 25.5% | 20.9% | 3.5% | PKG 124% · CCK 23% · AMCR 4% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 24 | -54.5% | -6.8% | -8.7% | USAR 29615% · MTRN 157% · SKE 157% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 14.3% | 1.2% | -15.0% | NEU 147% · ESI 49% · ECL 44% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 3 | 14.9% | 2.8% | -15.4% | CBT 51% · ASH -15% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 13 | 9.2% | -18.3% | -30.7% | HWKN 341% · MEOH 64% · DOW -23% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | -14.6% | 130.3% | -50.0% | PPTA 260% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -41.6% | -54.9% | -58.4% | CF 137% · NTR 23% · MOS -43% |
| Paper Products | 4 | -37.3% | -61.7% | -81.8% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 194.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,688 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,417 |
| FCF LTM | 781 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 753 |
| CFO LTM | 1,514 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,531 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.2 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.9 |
| P/EBIT | 11.7 |
| P/E | 17.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -41.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregates | 6,297 | 5,950 | 5,919 | 5,281 | 4,345 |
| Asphalt | 1,294 | 1,246 | 1,141 | 990 | 778 |
| Concrete | 847 | 654 | 1,249 | 1,594 | 767 |
| Aggregates intersegment sales | -497 | -431 | -527 | -550 | -344 |
| Calcium | 7 | ||||
| Total | 7,941 | 7,418 | 7,782 | 7,315 | 5,552 |
| $ Mil | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Materials | 383 | 400 | 376 | 307 | 229 |
| Chemicals | -74 | -20 | -20 | 69 | 76 |
| Total | 309 | 381 | 356 | 377 | 305 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregates | 14,381 | 14,295 | 11,753 | 11,579 | 10,918 |
| Concrete | 1,013 | 1,066 | 962 | 1,436 | 1,680 |
| Asphalt | 719 | 806 | 613 | 598 | 602 |
| General corporate assets | 398 | 338 | 268 | 460 | 237 |
| Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash | 189 | 601 | 949 | 162 | 242 |
| Calcium | 4 | ||||
| Total | 16,700 | 17,105 | 14,546 | 14,235 | 13,683 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $289.14 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 37.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/05/1988 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $255.98 | $279.41 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 13.0% | 3.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.0% | 29.4% |
| Downside Capture | 66.55 | 82.01 |
| Upside Capture | 88.74 | 72.55 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 20.6% | 34.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.05 | 0.51 | 0.81 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Up Beta | -3.12 | -0.64 | 0.79 | 0.14 | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| Down Beta | -0.45 | -0.60 | -0.14 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| Up Capture | 160% | 124% | 117% | 62% | 57% | 57% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 23 | 34 | 63 | 135 | 406 |
| Down Capture | -73% | 76% | 95% | 92% | 86% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 30 | 63 | 116 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMC | 0.5% | 29.4% | 0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 26.4% | 17.7% | 1.16 | 64.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | 33.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.3% | 28.6% | -0.09 | 19.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.9% | 1.60 | -29.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.50 | 41.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.8% | 43.6% | -0.66 | 9.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMC | 9.5% | 26.7% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.6% | 19.1% | 0.23 | 66.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 58.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.6% | 0.31 | -1.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 51.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 24.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMC | 11.0% | 30.5% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.7% | 20.7% | 0.46 | 63.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 54.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 48.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.3% | 1.01 | 17.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 5.8% | ||
| 7/29/2026 | -1.6% | -1.2% | -4.9% |
| 4/29/2026 | 1.6% | 0.0% | -4.9% |
| 2/17/2026 | -7.8% | -5.1% | -18.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | -1.7% | -3.3% | -0.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.7% | 3.2% | 6.9% |
| 4/30/2025 | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% |
| 2/18/2025 | 0.9% | -7.0% | -12.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 3.9% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -6.0% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -8.7% | -18.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 5.8% | ||
| 7/29/2026 | -1.6% | -1.2% | -4.9% |
| 4/29/2026 | 1.6% | 0.0% | -4.9% |
| 2/17/2026 | -7.8% | -5.1% | -18.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | -1.7% | -3.3% | -0.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.7% | 3.2% | 6.9% |
| 4/30/2025 | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% |
| 2/18/2025 | 0.9% | -7.0% | -12.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 6.4% | 5.2% | 10.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | -4.4% | -6.0% | -8.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | 1.8% | 3.2% | -1.4% |
| 2/16/2024 | 5.2% | 6.1% | 11.3% |
| 10/26/2023 | -4.6% | 0.2% | 4.3% |
| 8/3/2023 | 1.4% | 0.1% | -2.0% |
| 5/4/2023 | 6.5% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| 2/16/2023 | -5.2% | -6.6% | -17.4% |
| 11/2/2022 | -1.1% | 4.7% | 11.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | 2.5% | 5.0% | 0.2% |
| 5/4/2022 | 4.8% | -8.7% | -4.5% |
| 2/16/2022 | 1.4% | -7.3% | -3.0% |
| 11/4/2021 | -0.5% | 2.7% | -1.7% |
| 8/4/2021 | -0.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| 5/4/2021 | 5.3% | 6.2% | 0.7% |
| 2/16/2021 | -1.2% | -1.5% | 2.7% |
| 11/5/2020 | 0.8% | 3.9% | 7.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 3.9% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -6.0% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -8.7% | -18.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net earnings attributable to Vulcan | Reported | 1.12 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Depreciation, depletion, accretion and amortization | Reported | 710.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.40 Bil | -4.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Projected EBITDA | Reported | 2.37 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Projected Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.40 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Interest expense, net | Reported | 215.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Income tax expense, including discontinued operations | Reported | 320.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Aggregates Pricing Gains | Reported | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.09 | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.40 Bil | 2.50 Bil | 2.60 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Bil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.40 Bil | 2.50 Bil | 2.60 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Aggregates Shipments Growth | Reported | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Freight-adjusted Price Improvement | Reported | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ||||
| 2026 Net Earnings | Reported | 1.10 Bil | 1.20 Bil | 1.30 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Asphalt and Concrete Cash Gross Profit | Reported | 290.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Selling, Administrative and General Expense | Reported | 580.00 Mil | 585.00 Mil | 590.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.40 Bil | 2.50 Bil | 2.60 Bil | 4.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.40 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest Expense | Reported | 225.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 22.0% | 22.5% | 23.0% | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 750.00 Mil | 775.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/25/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hill, J Thomas | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 276.17 | 14,000 | 3,866,404 | 16,075,589 | Form | |
| 2 | Clement, David P | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8102026 | 285.10 | 2,000 | 570,200 | 1,914,732 | Form |
| 3 | Clement, David P | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 292.29 | 2,212 | 646,545 | 2,547,600 | Form |
| 4 | Anderson, Melissa H | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 303.72 | 1,137 | Form | |||
| 5 | Baker, Thompson S II | President | As Trustee of Thompson S. Baker II Revocable Trust | Sell | 12152025 | 300.81 | 7,135 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hill, J Thomas | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 276.17 | 14,000 | 3,866,404 | 16,075,589 | Form | |
| 2 | Clement, David P | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8102026 | 285.10 | 2,000 | 570,200 | 1,914,732 | Form |
| 3 | Clement, David P | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 292.29 | 2,212 | 646,545 | 2,547,600 | Form |
| 4 | Anderson, Melissa H | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 303.72 | 1,137 | Form | |||
| 5 | Baker, Thompson S II | President | As Trustee of Thompson S. Baker II Revocable Trust | Sell | 12152025 | 300.81 | 7,135 | Form | ||
| 6 | Franklin, Denson N Iii | SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 295.00 | 665 | 196,175 | 2,443,780 | Form |
| 7 | Clement, David P | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 288.55 | 2,000 | 577,100 | 240,074 | Form |
| 8 | Baker, Thompson S II | President | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 295.63 | 4,853 | 1,434,714 | 12,264,400 | Form |
| 9 | Baker, Thompson S II | President | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 289.76 | 4,243 | 1,229,452 | 12,020,694 | Form |
| 10 | Hall, Grayson | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 290.74 | 4,658 | Form | |||
| 11 | Bass, Stanley G | Chief Strategy Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 288.00 | 3,333 | 959,904 | 7,954,629 | Form |
| 12 | Baker, Thompson S II | President | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 292.26 | 5,818 | Form | ||
| 13 | Clement, David P | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 298.56 | 698 | 208,395 | 845,522 | Form |
| 14 | Pigg, Randy L | Vice President and Controller | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 286.56 | 650 | 186,264 | 336,135 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $152.1 Mil | 10.7% | 13 | ADD +36.6% | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $310.9 Mil | 7.5% | 16 | TRIM -13.3% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $146.8 Mil | 7.1% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $481.8 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | ADD +84.3% | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $58.3 Mil | 4.1% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $12.6 Mil | 2.7% | 36 | TRIM -6.4% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $99.1 Mil | 2.1% | 44 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 1.1% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $7.2 Mil | 0.9% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $39.3 Mil | 0.3% | 36 | TRIM -91.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $481.8 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | ADD +84.3% | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $310.9 Mil | 7.5% | 16 | TRIM -13.3% | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $152.1 Mil | 10.7% | 13 | ADD +36.6% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $146.8 Mil | 7.1% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $99.1 Mil | 2.1% | 44 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $58.3 Mil | 4.1% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $39.3 Mil | 0.3% | 36 | TRIM -91.4% | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $12.6 Mil | 2.7% | 36 | TRIM -6.4% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 1.1% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $7.2 Mil | 0.9% | 34 | New | 13F |
VMC Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on management's explicit guidance for mid- to high-single-digit price growth in 2027. This pricing power has expanded unit profitability even with softer volumes and cost pressures. The primary uncertainty is whether the current muted demand environment deteriorates further, which would challenge the company's ability to realize these price increases.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical Industrial / Materials Producer(Volume of Aggregates Shipped * Average Selling Price) + Downstream Product Sales Expansion of Aggregates cash gross profit per ton, driven by price increases exceeding unit cost inflation.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The company is successfully trading modest volume declines for significant price increases, expanding core profitability.
- Aggregates cash gross profit per ton grew to $11.95 in Q3 2026.
- Management guides for mid- to high-single-digit aggregates price growth in 2027.
- Mix-adjusted average selling prices improved 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- The Aggregates segment generates approximately 90% of company gross profit.
PRIMARY RISK
A sharper-than-expected construction downturn could force a reversal on pricing to support volumes, compressing margins and invalidating the 2027 earnings growth story.
- Aggregates shipments decreased 3% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- Latest-quarter total revenue declined 4.7% year-over-year.
- Residential construction activity is limited by a challenging rate environment.
- 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered by 4.0%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregates Shipments (Volume Growth) | A 3% year-over-year decline in Q3 2026 - Decelerating | Management attributed the Q3 decline to a difficult comparison against the prior-year period, which benefited from favorable weather and outsized shipments following a slow start to the 2025 construction season. |
| Aggregates Cash Gross Profit per Ton | $11.95 per ton in Q3 2026 - Stable | Management emphasized that unit profitability expanded despite significant energy-related cost headwinds of approximately $40 million in the quarter. The focus remains on compounding this metric higher over time. |
| Aggregates Freight-Adjusted Sales Price | $22.84 per ton (Q3 2026) | Represents the realized price per unit for the core product, excluding pass-through delivery costs. It is a key indicator of pricing power and profitability. |
2027 Pricing Power vs. 2026 Volume Weakness
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the 2027 guidance for 'mid to high single digits' price growth, betting it will expand unit profitability and drive earnings even if volumes remain flat, as demonstrated in Q3.
CORE TENSION
Can guided 2027 price growth offset the current reality of a 3% decline in shipment volumes, which prompted a recent 4.0% cut to 2026 EBITDA guidance?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market's positive 6.0% reaction to the earnings report indicates investors are prioritizing the forward-looking pricing guidance over the trailing volume softness.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the 3% Q3 shipment decline as the start of a cyclical slide that will make aggressive 2027 price hikes impossible, leading to future guidance cuts.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
1/27/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Eagle Materials (EXP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/9/2027 | Peer Reports Signal Sector Slowdown Watch: Peer commentary on demand trends, shipment volumes, pricing power, and the impact of energy costs. |
2/15/2027 | Disappointing 2027 Guidance Watch: Initial 2027 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA, revenue growth, and aggregates pricing relative to the preliminary outlook. |
2/16/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer CRH (CRH) is scheduled to report earnings. |
Second quarter 2027 | Debt Maturity Event Watch: A $400.0 million debt maturity is due. |
No set date | Adverse Mexico Arbitration News Watch: Any procedural rulings, official statements, or news reports regarding the new ICSID arbitration against Mexico. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-30 | New Mexico Arbitration Filed Details: The company's subsidiaries filed a new Request for Arbitration against Mexico with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). | +0.3% $280.31 -> $281.25 |
2026-10-30 | Mexico Arbitration Ruling Details: A NAFTA arbitration tribunal issued a decision on the company's claim against Mexico, awarding only negligible monetary damages for violations. | +0.3% $280.31 -> $281.25 |
2026-10-29 | Q3 Results and Guidance Cut Details: The company reported Q3 results and lowered its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance by 4.0%, citing significant energy headwinds. | +6.1% $265.00 -> $281.25 |
2026-07-29 | Negative Q2 Earnings Reaction Details: Following the Q2 earnings report, the stock experienced a negative two-day reaction of -6.0% while the S&P 500 remained flat. | -6.0% $287.89 -> $270.74 |
2026-06-08 | Portfolio Reshaped Details: The company divested its California concrete business and acquired aggregates operations in Dallas-Fort Worth and Colorado, sharpening its aggregates focus. | -0.8% $280.86 -> $278.48 |
2026-05-08 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: | -2.2% $287.82 -> $281.62 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: VMC trades at roughly 28% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.8x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MLM - Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
Pure-Play PeerMartin Marietta Materials currently exhibits a slightly higher operating margin at 21.2% versus Vulcan's 19.9%, suggesting a potential advantage in cost structure or regional mix.
CRH - CRH plc
Global Diversified LeaderCRH offers significantly larger scale, with revenue 4.9 times that of Vulcan, and greater geographic diversification. It is also pursuing growth through large acquisitions like Arcosa.
A logistics and real estate company monetizing a finite, strategically-located, and hard-to-replicate asset base (permitted quarries) whose value is dictated by proximity to demand.
Vulcan Materials is the dominant U.S. aggregates producer with a durable moat based on the high weight-to-price ratio of its products, which makes its vast network of permitted reserves near growing cities invaluable. The business model relies on compounding price increases and operational efficiencies to drive unit profitability. Its performance is tied to construction cycles but is partly stabilized by multi-year public infrastructure spending.
Sustained or increased public infrastructure spending, continued strength in large-scale private projects like data centers, and successful implementation of price increases that outpace cost inflation.
A sharp, prolonged downturn in construction activity, significant cost inflation (e.g., diesel) that cannot be passed through via price increases, or new regulations that impede operations at key facilities.
Quarter-to-quarter shipment volatility due to weather, which can affect the timing of production and construction activity but typically does not alter underlying annual demand.
Repricing Catalyst
Management's ability to execute on its guided mid- to high-single-digit price increases for 2027, which would expand unit profitability and drive earnings growth despite a flat demand environment and energy cost headwinds.
Aggregates
$6.5B TTM (80% of Total)What It Is
Sells crushed stone, sand, and gravel to the construction industry for public infrastructure projects (highways, airports) and private construction (residential, commercial, industrial).
Who Pays & How
Construction contractors pay for aggregates. They choose Vulcan because its 16.6 billion tons of reserves are strategically located near high-growth metropolitan areas, minimizing prohibitive transportation costs. Significant barriers to entry from zoning and permitting increase the value of Vulcan's existing, permitted locations.
Competition
Asphalt
$1.3B TTM (16% of Total)What It Is
Sells asphalt mix, an aggregates-intensive product (approx. 95% aggregates by weight), to customers in Alabama, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Texas for projects like road paving.
Who Pays & How
Construction contractors pay for asphalt mix. This segment functions as an internal customer to the Aggregates segment, leveraging its materials. Proximity is key as asphalt hardens rapidly, so delivery is typically close to the production facility.
Competition
Concrete
$823M TTM (10% of Total)What It Is
Sells ready-mixed concrete, which is approximately 80% aggregates by weight, to construction customers in Maryland, Virginia, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Washington D.C.
Who Pays & How
Construction contractors pay for ready-mixed concrete. Like the Asphalt segment, this business is vertically integrated with Vulcan's aggregates operations. Delivery is time-constrained as concrete hardens rapidly, limiting the service radius.
Competition
Vulcan Materials — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Construction Materials Resources |
| Construction Europe |
| Aggregates Business |
| Concrete Products |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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