Tearsheet

Knife River (KNF)


Market Price (2/21/2026): $90.71 | Market Cap: $5.1 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials

Knife River (KNF)


Market Price (2/21/2026): $90.71
Market Cap: $5.1 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Construction Materials

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.7%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 35x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Green Building Materials, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6%
2   Key risks
KNF key risks include [1] margin pressures from rising operational costs and challenges converting its project backlog profitably, Show more.
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Green Building Materials, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.7%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 35x
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6%
5 Key risks
KNF key risks include [1] margin pressures from rising operational costs and challenges converting its project backlog profitably, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Knife River (KNF) stock has gained about 50% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Knife River reported a significant beat on its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue, surpassing analyst expectations. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.56 significantly exceeded the forecasted $0.41, representing a 36.59% surprise. Additionally, revenue reached $755.1 million, surpassing the anticipated $651 million by 15.99%. This strong performance also saw a 15% year-over-year increase in Q4 2025 revenue and a 47% jump in Adjusted EBITDA to $119.4 million.

2. The company provided a robust and optimistic financial outlook for 2026, coupled with a record-high backlog. Management guided for 2026 revenue between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $520 million to $560 million, exceeding analyst expectations. This positive forecast is supported by a year-end contracting services backlog that reached approximately $1.0 billion, a substantial increase from $745.6 million in the prior year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 50.0% change in KNF stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252202026Change
Stock Price ($)60.4690.7050.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,9503,0483.3%
Net Income Margin (%)5.2%4.9%-6.4%
P/E Multiple22.334.755.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)57570.0%
Cumulative Contribution50.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
KNF50.0% 
Market (SPY)1.1%23.7%
Sector (XLB)23.6%29.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 10.0% change in KNF stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252202026Change
Stock Price ($)82.4890.7010.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,9233,0484.3%
Net Income Margin (%)6.2%4.9%-21.2%
P/E Multiple25.934.734.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5757-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution10.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
KNF10.0% 
Market (SPY)9.4%19.8%
Sector (XLB)21.3%39.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -12.4% change in KNF stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120252202026Change
Stock Price ($)103.5890.70-12.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,8893,0485.5%
Net Income Margin (%)6.9%4.9%-29.4%
P/E Multiple29.534.717.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5757-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution-12.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
KNF-12.4% 
Market (SPY)15.6%52.0%
Sector (XLB)21.0%57.2%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
KNF  
Market (SPY)75.9%50.7%
Sector (XLB)32.0%52.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
KNF Return--68%54%-31%25%124%
Peers Return47%-21%54%19%13%7%159%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%0%83%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KNF Win Rate--62%50%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate75%40%62%58%67%75% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KNF Max Drawdown---11%-6%-41%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-36%-3%-4%-15%-1% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VMC, MLM, CRH, EXP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/20/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

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In The Past

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About Knife River (KNF)

Knife River Corporation provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. It operates through six segments: Pacific, Northwest, Mountain, North Central, South, and Energy Services. It mines, processes, and sells construction aggregates, including crushed stone and sand, and gravel; and produces and sells asphalt and ready-mix concrete, as well as provides contracting services to support the aggregate-based product lines, including heavy-civil construction, asphalt and concrete paving, and site development and grading. It serves various projects related to highways, airports, and other public infrastructure. The company was founded in 1917 and is based in Bismarck, North Dakota.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Knife River (KNF):

  • A regional Granite Construction (GVA).
  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) for regional infrastructure projects.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Aggregates: Production and sale of crushed stone, sand, and gravel used in various construction applications.
  • Asphalt: Manufacturing and sale of hot-mix asphalt and other asphalt products for paving and road construction.
  • Ready-Mix Concrete: Production and delivery of custom-blended concrete to construction sites for various structural uses.
  • Contracting Services: General contracting and construction services primarily focused on infrastructure projects like roads, bridges, and utilities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Knife River (KNF) primarily sells construction materials and services to other businesses and government entities. Due to the project-based nature of its business and a diverse customer base, no single customer accounted for more than 10% of its consolidated revenues in recent years, as stated in their Form 10-K filings. Therefore, specific individual "major customer" companies are not publicly disclosed and cannot be named.

Instead, Knife River's major customers can be effectively described by the following categories:

  • Government Entities: This category includes federal, state, and local government agencies. These entities are significant customers for Knife River's aggregates, asphalt, ready-mix concrete, and contracting services, primarily for infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, public buildings, and other public works.
  • General Contractors and Developers: These are private and, occasionally, public companies engaged in large-scale commercial, industrial, and residential development projects. They purchase construction materials and utilize contracting services from Knife River for the development of buildings, housing communities, industrial parks, and related infrastructure.
  • Other Construction Firms and Subcontractors: This category includes various other specialized construction companies and subcontractors who purchase specific materials like aggregates, asphalt, or ready-mix concrete from Knife River for their own projects or subcontracts, contributing to a wide array of construction activities.

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Brian R. Gray

President and Chief Executive Officer

Brian R. Gray assumed the role of President of Knife River on January 1, 2023, and became Chief Executive Officer on March 1, 2023. He has 30 years of experience with the company. Before his promotion, he served as president of Knife River's Northwest segment from 2012 to 2022, where he was responsible for leading the acquisition of eight companies and played a key role in developing the Knife River Training Center and corporate-wide safety, training, and sustainability programs. Mr. Gray initially joined Morse Brothers, a construction materials supplier, after earning his degree, which was subsequently acquired by Knife River in 1998. He holds a civil engineering degree from Oregon State University and was inducted into Oregon State's Academy of Distinguished Engineers in 2022. He has served on numerous industry boards, including the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association and the Oregon-Columbia chapter of the Associated General Contractors.

Nathan W. Ring

Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Nathan W. Ring is the Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Knife River. He brings 21 years of experience with Knife River and its former affiliated businesses, including MDU Construction Services Group, Centennial Energy, and MDU Resources Group. From 2017 to 2022, he led Knife River's acquisition strategy as vice president of business development. Mr. Ring also held the position of vice president, controller, and chief accounting officer for MDU Resources from 2014 to 2016. Furthermore, he served as CFO of Starion Bank between March 2016 and October 2017. He is a certified public accountant and holds a Bachelor of Accountancy from the University of North Dakota.

Trevor J. Hastings

Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Trevor J. Hastings serves as the Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for Knife River. He has 27 years of experience with the company and its former affiliated businesses, such as MDU Resources Group, WBI Energy, and Centennial Energy. From 2017 to 2023, Mr. Hastings was the President and CEO of WBI Energy. He also previously spent 10 years with Knife River, holding roles such as vice president of business development and operations support. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of North Dakota.

Sarah L. Stevens

Vice President and Chief People Officer

Sarah L. Stevens was promoted to Vice President and Chief People Officer in April 2025. She has 19 years of experience at Knife River, where she previously served as Vice President of Human Resources and Senior Director of Human Resources. Ms. Stevens holds a Master of Business Administration from George Fox University and an undergraduate degree from the University of Puget Sound.

Glenn R. Pladsen

Vice President and Chief Excellence Officer

Glenn R. Pladsen is the Vice President and Chief Excellence Officer, a role that took effect on January 1, 2025. He joined Knife River in 2007 as director of information technology and oversees information technology, safety, environmental management, training, capital budgeting, and national accounts. He began overseeing capital budgeting and national account programs in 2012 and took on a leadership role for the company's safety and environmental programs in 2015. He was named vice president of support services in 2019, adding corporate training program responsibilities, and is tasked with leading core elements of the company's "Competitive EDGE" strategy. Mr. Pladsen holds a degree in mechanical engineering from North Dakota State University.

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Key Risks to Knife River (KNF)

  • Cyclical Nature of the Construction Materials Industry and Economic Volatility: Knife River's business is highly susceptible to economic downturns and the cyclical nature of the construction materials industry. Unfavorable economic conditions can negatively impact the level and timing of public and private expenditures on construction projects, directly affecting demand for Knife River's products and services. This also increases the risk of non-payment or delayed payments from customers.
  • Operational Challenges and Margin Pressures: The company faces ongoing operational challenges that put pressure on its margins. These include rising aggregate costs, disruptions due to severe weather events, and increasing selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses. The ability to convert its project backlog into consistent and profitable earnings, especially when costs are rising faster than revenue, is a significant concern.
  • Dependence on Government-Funded Projects and Potential Funding Delays: A substantial portion of Knife River's project backlog is dependent on public infrastructure spending, particularly government-funded Department of Transportation (DOT) work. This reliance exposes the company to risks if public infrastructure funding is delayed, reduced, or if there are changes in government spending priorities, which could impact revenue and profitability.

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Knife River (KNF) operates primarily in the western, central, and southern U.S., focusing on essential construction materials and contracting services. The addressable markets for their main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:

  • Aggregates: The U.S. construction aggregates market was valued at approximately USD 35.4 billion in 2023. Other estimates indicate the market was USD 39 billion in 2024. Another source states the U.S. construction aggregate market was valued at USD 75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 151 billion by 2035. The North American construction aggregates market, dominated by the U.S., was valued at USD 79.2 billion in 2024.
  • Asphalt: The U.S. asphalt market size was approximately USD 32.6 million in 2024, projected to reach USD 52.9 million by 2032. Another report states the U.S. asphalt market is set to reach USD 70.72 million by 2027. However, these figures appear to be unusually low for the U.S. asphalt market and may contain unit errors in the original source, as the global asphalt market was valued at USD 4.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow.
  • Ready-Mix Concrete: The U.S. ready-mix concrete market was valued at over USD 130 billion in 2024. Another estimate places the U.S. concrete production and delivery industry revenue at USD 68 billion in 2024. The North American ready-mix concrete market was estimated at USD 72.63 billion in 2025, with the U.S. accounting for 84.51% of that revenue, equating to approximately USD 61.39 billion.
  • Construction Services: Knife River provides various contracting services. The overall U.S. construction market, which includes construction services, was valued at approximately USD 2.1 trillion in 2024. This market is estimated to reach USD 2.24 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3.27 trillion by 2033. Another source estimates the market size of construction in the U.S. at USD 3.7 trillion in 2025.

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Knife River (KNF) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market conditions:

  1. Strategic Acquisitions and Market Expansion: Knife River explicitly states that mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are a core component of its "Competitive EDGE strategy" to drive long-term value. The company has recently completed significant acquisitions, such as Strata Corporation and Kalama River Quarry, which have contributed to record revenue and backlog. Knife River plans to continue pursuing aggregates-led, margin-accretive targets in its mid-sized, high-growth markets. Additionally, the Central segment, particularly in Texas, has demonstrated strong growth and a record backlog, partially fueled by acquisitions.
  2. Dynamic Pricing and Margin Optimization: Management has emphasized optimizing prices and controlling costs as crucial elements of their strategy. The implementation of dynamic pricing is reportedly 50% complete as of Q2 2025, and this approach has already led to improved gross margins across its aggregates, ready-mix, and asphalt product lines. This focus on pricing and cost management is expected to enhance profitability and, by extension, revenue growth.
  3. Robust Backlog and Public Infrastructure Spending: Knife River boasts a record backlog of secured work backed by dedicated public funding. A significant portion of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) funds in the company's 14 operating states remains unspent, providing a substantial foundation for future growth. Specific legislative developments, such as a 10-year, $4.3 billion transportation funding package in Oregon, are also expected to bolster future bid schedules and maintain funding levels.
  4. Organic Growth Initiatives and Operational Efficiencies: Beyond acquisitions, Knife River is investing in organic growth projects, including aggregates expansion and greenfield developments. The company's "Competitive EDGE" strategy also focuses on operational process improvements and cost reduction to enhance margins and ensure sustainable growth. These internal initiatives aim to optimize performance and contribute to overall revenue expansion.

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Share Issuance

  • Knife River became an independent public company in 2023, which involved a spin-off from its parent company.
  • The number of outstanding shares slightly increased from 56.57 million in 2023 to 56.66 million in 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • Knife River completed $131 million in acquisitions during 2024.
  • The company announced and subsequently closed the acquisition of Strata Corporation for $454 million in March 2025.
  • For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Knife River invested $528.0 million on acquisitions as part of its growth initiatives.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $160 million in 2021, $116 million in 2022, and $155 million in 2023.
  • In 2024, the company spent $170.5 million on capital expenditures, primarily for the replacement of depleting aggregate reserves, construction equipment, plant improvements, and buildings.
  • For the full year 2025, Knife River anticipates capital expenditures for maintenance and improvement to be between 5% and 7% of its revenue guidance, with an additional $32 million expected for organic growth projects in the remainder of 2025.

Trade Ideas

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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KNFVMCMLMCRHEXPMedian
NameKnife Ri.Vulcan M.Martin M.CRH Eagle Ma. 
Mkt Price90.70305.29685.94124.04235.30235.30
Mkt Cap5.140.341.483.47.540.3
Rev LTM3,0487,8827,29636,9012,3007,296
Op Inc LTM2651,5851,7395,1085651,585
FCF LTM-811,0551,0072,6052321,007
FCF 3Y Avg88828764-342553
CFO LTM2551,7101,8425,4405751,710
CFO 3Y Avg3031,5391,524-5621,043

Growth & Margins

KNFVMCMLMCRHEXPMedian
NameKnife Ri.Vulcan M.Martin M.CRH Eagle Ma. 
Rev Chg LTM5.5%6.5%16.5%4.3%1.4%5.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.2%6.1%5.7%3.3%4.5%
Rev Chg Q8.9%14.4%12.4%5.3%-0.4%8.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.3%3.8%2.9%1.5%-0.1%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM8.7%20.1%23.8%13.8%24.6%20.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.1%18.4%29.5%12.9%26.8%18.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.8%0.7%0.1%-0.9%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM8.4%21.7%25.2%14.7%25.0%21.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.6%20.1%22.5%-24.7%21.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.6%13.4%13.8%7.1%10.1%10.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.2%10.8%11.2%-15.1%11.0%

Valuation

KNFVMCMLMCRHEXPMedian
NameKnife Ri.Vulcan M.Martin M.CRH Eagle Ma. 
Mkt Cap5.140.341.483.47.540.3
P/S1.75.15.72.33.33.3
P/EBIT18.724.423.615.812.618.7
P/E34.736.135.924.117.434.7
P/CFO20.223.622.515.313.020.2
Total Yield2.9%3.4%2.8%4.4%6.0%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.0%0.3%0.2%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.9%2.4%2.3%-4.7%2.3%
D/E0.20.10.10.20.20.2
Net D/E0.20.10.10.20.20.2

Returns

KNFVMCMLMCRHEXPMedian
NameKnife Ri.Vulcan M.Martin M.CRH Eagle Ma. 
1M Rtn12.9%2.1%7.0%2.5%4.5%4.5%
3M Rtn28.4%6.1%13.9%12.6%12.3%12.6%
6M Rtn-1.2%4.6%13.1%9.8%-1.4%4.6%
12M Rtn-10.5%18.9%36.3%22.7%1.5%18.9%
3Y Rtn130.2%73.1%94.1%181.8%73.5%94.1%
1M Excs Rtn12.4%1.6%6.5%2.0%4.0%4.0%
3M Excs Rtn28.6%3.9%11.4%9.9%12.7%11.4%
6M Excs Rtn-3.4%-1.2%6.5%4.7%-3.8%-1.2%
12M Excs Rtn-24.3%3.6%20.0%6.2%-14.1%3.6%
3Y Excs Rtn63.2%1.3%29.0%122.4%-1.5%29.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil202420232022
Contracting services public-sector1,004918777
Ready-mix concrete654610584
Aggregates548497444
Asphalt452427340
Contracting services private-sector304270241
Liquid asphalt253207166
Other249200178
Internal sales-633-594-501
Total2,8302,5352,229


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$90.70 
Market Cap ($ Bil)5.1 
First Trading Date05/25/2023 
Distance from 52W High-11.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$76.75$79.22
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA18.2%14.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility54.3%48.4%
Downside Capture41.46144.13
Upside Capture173.27113.75
Correlation (SPY)30.0%51.9%
KNF Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.702.291.280.991.33-0.13
Up Beta4.713.201.862.701.53-0.30
Down Beta4.683.721.250.290.98-0.44
Up Capture-6%55%149%29%101%199%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days11193056117362
Down Capture117%181%90%122%135%107%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days9223169133308

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with KNF
KNF-9.1%48.3%-0.05-
Sector ETF (XLB)19.6%20.8%0.7656.7%
Equity (SPY)13.5%19.4%0.5351.9%
Gold (GLD)74.5%25.6%2.15-5.7%
Commodities (DBC)7.2%16.9%0.251.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.1%16.7%0.2449.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-30.6%44.9%-0.6815.7%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with KNF
KNF19.2%41.5%0.89-
Sector ETF (XLB)9.4%18.9%0.3952.2%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.0%0.6250.7%
Gold (GLD)22.6%17.1%1.081.9%
Commodities (DBC)10.9%19.0%0.465.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%18.8%0.1738.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.2%57.1%0.3517.6%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with KNF
KNF9.2%41.5%0.89-
Sector ETF (XLB)12.7%20.6%0.5552.2%
Equity (SPY)16.1%17.9%0.7750.7%
Gold (GLD)14.8%15.6%0.791.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.405.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.0%20.7%0.3038.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.8%66.7%1.0717.6%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 11520267.1%
Average Daily Volume0.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity56.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/20258.4%17.6%21.2%
8/5/20251.9%4.7%-9.2%
5/6/2025-5.3%2.7%-4.2%
2/13/20254.3%4.2%-4.1%
11/4/2024-8.5%3.7%6.2%
8/6/20243.0%2.9%5.9%
5/7/2024-2.3%-4.4%-15.9%
2/15/20240.7%4.7%9.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive796
# Negative314
Median Positive4.3%4.2%7.7%
Median Negative-5.3%-4.4%-6.7%
Max Positive8.4%17.6%21.2%
Max Negative-8.5%-4.4%-15.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/04/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202302/27/202410-K
09/30/202311/06/202310-Q
06/30/202308/08/202310-Q
03/31/202305/16/202310-Q
12/31/202205/08/202310-12B/A