Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -22%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Green Building Materials, Show more.
  
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Green Building Materials, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -22%
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KNF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Knife River (symbol: KNF) experienced a significant movement around the requested period, with a daily percentage change of -5.52% on September 30, 2025. This decline can be attributed to several key factors influencing market sentiment regarding the company's performance and outlook:

1. A reported decrease in net income and net income per share for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, despite an increase in revenue. While the full Q3 2025 earnings were announced later, market participants may have anticipated these profitability trends towards the quarter's close.

2. Operational challenges stemming from a wet third quarter across Knife River’s Central and Mountain segments. This adverse weather led to delayed work and created various operational difficulties for the company.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KNF Return----54%-27%12%
Peers Return16%46%-28%66%11%3%132%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KNF Win Rate---71%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%73%35%65%58%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KNF Max Drawdown-----6%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-3%-40%-3%-7%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JHX, CRH, VMC, MLM, EXP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

KNF has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1761 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Knife River (KNF)

Better Bets than Knife River (KNF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KNF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Knife River

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KNFJHXCRHVMCMLMEXPMedian
NameKnife Ri.James Ha.CRH Vulcan M.Martin M.Eagle Ma. 
Mkt Price76.4819.74121.36292.59615.87224.01172.69
Mkt Cap4.38.581.638.737.17.222.8
Rev LTM3,0483,78636,9017,8827,2962,3025,541
Op Inc LTM2657945,1081,5851,7395851,189
FCF LTM-814292,6051,0551,007244718
FCF 3Y Avg88329-828764376376
CFO LTM2558255,4401,7101,8425241,267
CFO 3Y Avg303793-1,5391,524565793

Growth & Margins

KNFJHXCRHVMCMLMEXPMedian
NameKnife Ri.James Ha.CRH Vulcan M.Martin M.Eagle Ma. 
Rev Chg LTM5.5%-4.7%4.3%6.5%16.5%1.5%4.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.2%5.7%3.2%6.1%4.1%4.1%
Rev Chg Q8.9%-9.3%5.3%14.4%12.4%2.5%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.3%-2.4%1.5%3.8%2.9%0.7%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM8.7%21.0%13.8%20.1%23.8%25.4%20.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.1%22.1%12.9%18.4%29.5%27.1%20.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-1.2%0.1%0.8%0.7%-0.5%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM8.4%21.8%14.7%21.7%25.2%22.8%21.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.6%20.7%-20.1%22.5%25.0%20.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.6%11.3%7.1%13.4%13.8%10.6%11.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.2%8.5%-10.8%11.2%16.7%10.8%

Valuation

KNFJHXCRHVMCMLMEXPMedian
NameKnife Ri.James Ha.CRH Vulcan M.Martin M.Eagle Ma. 
Mkt Cap4.38.581.638.737.17.222.8
P/S1.43.12.25.25.23.33.2
P/EBIT15.820.615.324.621.712.318.2
P/E29.434.923.336.333.016.831.2
P/CFO17.114.014.823.820.614.415.9
Total Yield3.4%2.9%4.6%3.4%3.0%6.2%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.3%0.6%0.0%0.2%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.6%2.7%-2.5%2.4%5.1%2.6%
D/E0.30.20.30.10.20.20.2
Net D/E0.30.20.20.10.20.20.2

Returns

KNFJHXCRHVMCMLMEXPMedian
NameKnife Ri.James Ha.CRH Vulcan M.Martin M.Eagle Ma. 
1M Rtn25.2%-3.5%2.9%1.4%-0.4%8.8%2.1%
3M Rtn-0.2%1.8%8.8%1.7%0.9%0.1%1.3%
6M Rtn-17.7%-22.8%34.4%10.3%12.4%11.7%11.0%
12M Rtn-26.1%-46.1%20.1%2.9%5.2%-25.6%-11.4%
3Y Rtn--6.0%233.2%62.3%71.4%66.5%66.5%
1M Excs Rtn25.2%-3.4%2.9%1.4%-0.4%8.9%2.2%
3M Excs Rtn-8.0%-4.3%3.8%-5.1%-5.7%-8.9%-5.4%
6M Excs Rtn-32.4%-37.5%19.7%-4.4%-2.4%-3.0%-3.7%
12M Excs Rtn-39.7%-60.4%6.9%-11.2%-10.2%-40.7%-25.5%
3Y Excs Rtn--70.7%160.4%-6.2%2.0%-1.3%-1.3%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,749,372
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-8.9%
Average Daily Volume970,458
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.83
Basic Shares Quantity56,664,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023516202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022508202310-12B/A 12/31/2022