Knife River (KNF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $76.99 | Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials
Knife River (KNF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $76.99Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Construction Materials
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Green Building Materials, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Green Building Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KNF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Knife River (symbol: KNF) experienced a significant movement around the requested period, with a daily percentage change of -5.52% on September 30, 2025. This decline can be attributed to several key factors influencing market sentiment regarding the company's performance and outlook:
1. A reported decrease in net income and net income per share for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, despite an increase in revenue. While the full Q3 2025 earnings were announced later, market participants may have anticipated these profitability trends towards the quarter's close.
2. Operational challenges stemming from a wet third quarter across Knife River’s Central and Mountain segments. This adverse weather led to delayed work and created various operational difficulties for the company.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KNF Return | - | - | - | - | 54% | -27% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 46% | -28% | 66% | 11% | 3% | 132% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KNF Win Rate | - | - | - | 71% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 73% | 35% | 65% | 58% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KNF Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -6% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -3% | -40% | -3% | -7% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JHX, CRH, VMC, MLM, EXP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KNF has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1761 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Knife River Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| Does Knife River Stock Lead the Pack? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Why Knife River Stock Moved: KNF Stock Has Lost 27% Since 2024 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| Knife River (KNF) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Knife River (KNF) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Knife River (KNF) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Knife River (KNF) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Knife River (KNF) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 31st, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 28th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 17th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: MDB, KSS, VIR | Losers: OPEN, KNF, SMMT | August 27th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KNF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Knife River
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 172.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,541 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,189 |
| FCF LTM | 718 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 376 |
| CFO LTM | 1,267 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 793 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.8 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 31.2 |
| P/CFO | 15.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 5082023 | 10-12B/A 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |