Tearsheet

Mosaic (MOS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.12 | Market Cap: $7.7 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Mosaic (MOS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.12
Market Cap: $7.7 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Nutrient Management, and Crop Nutrient Optimization.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Nutrient Management, and Crop Nutrient Optimization.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MOS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the approximate 27% stock movement for Mosaic (MOS) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Significant Q2 2025 Earnings Miss: The Mosaic Company reported second-quarter 2025 earnings on August 5th and 6th, which significantly missed analyst expectations. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.51 fell short of the forecasted $0.72, and revenue of $3.01 billion was below the $3.16 billion forecast. This substantial miss led to an initial stock decline of over 11% following the announcement.

2. Preliminary Q3 Production Shortfalls and Shipping Delays: On October 10, 2025, Mosaic announced preliminary third-quarter volumes that were lower than anticipated, particularly in its phosphate segment. Phosphate production reached approximately 1.7 million tonnes but was below expected levels due to unexpected mechanical issues at the Riverview sulfuric acid plant and utility interruptions at the Bartow facility. Additionally, phosphate sales volumes lagged production primarily due to shipment delays, causing the stock to drop 10% in early trading.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MOS Return8%72%13%-16%-29%1%25%
Peers Return-4%94%1%-27%-18%6%19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MOS Win Rate75%75%58%50%25%60% 
Peers Win Rate52%58%50%42%52%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MOS Max Drawdown-68%0%-1%-27%-31%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-11%-21%-42%-30%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CF, FMC, CMP, LXU, IPI. See MOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMOSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-59.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven146.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-68.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven214.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven251 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-52.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven109.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven619 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven622.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to CF, FMC, CMP, LXU, IPI


In The Past

Mosaic's stock fell -59.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -59.4% loss requires a 146.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mosaic (MOS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
MOS_12312024_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312024MOSMosaicDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
51.9%1.4%-6.6%
MOS_12312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312022MOSMosaicDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-19.0%-16.4%-26.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
MOS_12312024_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312024MOSMosaicDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
51.9%1.4%-6.6%
MOS_12312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312022MOSMosaicDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-19.0%-16.4%-26.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mosaic

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MOSCFFMCCMPLXUIPIMedian
NameMosaic CF Indus.FMC Compass .LSB Indu.Intrepid. 
Mkt Price-------
Mkt Cap-------
Rev LTM-------
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-------
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Growth & Margins

MOSCFFMCCMPLXUIPIMedian
NameMosaic CF Indus.FMC Compass .LSB Indu.Intrepid. 
Rev Chg LTM-------
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Rev Chg Q-------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-------
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CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-------
FCF/Rev LTM-------
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Valuation

MOSCFFMCCMPLXUIPIMedian
NameMosaic CF Indus.FMC Compass .LSB Indu.Intrepid. 
Mkt Cap-------
P/S-------
P/EBIT-------
P/E-------
P/CFO-------
Total Yield-------
Dividend Yield-------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
D/E-------
Net D/E-------

Returns

MOSCFFMCCMPLXUIPIMedian
NameMosaic CF Indus.FMC Compass .LSB Indu.Intrepid. 
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
12M Rtn-------
3Y Rtn-------
1M Excs Rtn-------
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Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Phosphates10,2969,5708,7767,0227,184
Potash8,9729,5828,3137,6157,219
Mosaic Fertilizantes5,2565,5634,9084,1283,975
Corporate, Eliminations and Other-1,491-1,329391,025921
Total23,03323,38622,03619,79019,298


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,337,719
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.7%
Average Daily Volume8,275,982
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.73
Basic Shares Quantity317,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Kuzenko Jody Lynne 11132025Buy25.5368517,488218,818Form