Mosaic (MOS)
Market Price (4/29/2026): $23.2 | Market Cap: $7.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Mosaic (MOS)
Market Price (4/29/2026): $23.2Market Cap: $7.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Nutrient Management, and Crop Nutrient Optimization. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4% Key risksMOS key risks include [1] concentrated exposure to volatile geopolitical, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Nutrient Management, and Crop Nutrient Optimization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4% |
| Key risksMOS key risks include [1] concentrated exposure to volatile geopolitical, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Q4 2025 Earnings Miss and Negative Guidance Impacted Sentiment. Mosaic reported a Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $0.48 by $0.26. Quarterly revenue also fell short at $2.97 billion, below the $3.02 billion consensus. This underperformance led to a 5.30% decline in the stock price on February 24, 2026.
2. Strategic Restructuring in Brazil Resulted in Significant Near-Term Charges. On April 8, 2026, Mosaic announced plans to idle its Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex and related Patrocínio mining in Brazil, which is expected to reduce annual phosphate production by approximately 1 million tonnes. This decision is projected to incur a substantial pre-tax charge of $350 million to $400 million in Q1 2026, including $275 million to $300 million in asset impairments. While this move is anticipated to generate long-term annual savings of $70 million to $80 million in operating expenses and $20 million to $30 million in capital expenditures, the immediate financial hit weighed on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.9% change in MOS stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -56.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.89 | 23.19 | -2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,895 | 12,052 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 4.5% | -56.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.2 | 13.6 | 120.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 317 | 318 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MOS | -2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 12.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.8% | 48.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.9% change in MOS stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.08 | 23.19 | -31.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,253 | 12,052 | 7.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.4% | 4.5% | -46.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.5 | 13.6 | 18.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 317 | 318 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MOS | -31.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 20.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.8% | 51.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.5% change in MOS stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.20 | 23.19 | -11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,123 | 12,052 | 8.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 4.5% | 185.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 47.6 | 13.6 | -71.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 317 | 318 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MOS | -11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.9% | 48.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -44.9% change in MOS stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -76.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.11 | 23.19 | -44.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,125 | 12,052 | -37.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.7% | 4.5% | -76.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.0 | 13.6 | 240.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 340 | 318 | 7.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -44.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MOS | -44.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 29.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 35.2% | 49.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MOS Return | 72% | 13% | -16% | -29% | 1% | -3% | 13% |
| Peers Return | 49% | 6% | -22% | -3% | 2% | 29% | 60% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 91% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MOS Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 55% | 40% | 52% | 50% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MOS Max Drawdown | 0% | -1% | -27% | -31% | -7% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -13% | -36% | -17% | -19% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTR, CF, IPI, FMC, CTVA. See MOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 214.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 619 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 622.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NTR, CF, IPI, FMC, CTVA
In The Past
Mosaic's stock fell -59.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -59.4% loss requires a 146.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Mosaic (MOS)
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- John Deere for crop nutrients.
- The Monsanto of soil fertilizers.
- The ExxonMobil of essential crop minerals.
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- Phosphate Crop Nutrients: Concentrated fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and ammoniated phosphate products.
- Potash Crop Nutrients: Fertilizers derived from potash, including the double sulfate of potash magnesia product known as K-Mag.
- Animal Feed Ingredients: Phosphate-based ingredients (e.g., Biofos, Nexfos) and nitrogen-based ingredients.
- Industrial Potash: Potash sold for applications such as de-icing and as a water softener regenerant.
- Nitrogen Products: Nitrogen-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, which the company purchases and sells.
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) primarily sells its products to other companies. Based on the provided background, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Wholesale distributors
- Retail chains
- Cooperatives
- Independent retailers
- National accounts
The company also sells directly to farmers.
The provided background information does not list the names of specific customer companies, nor their public symbols.
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Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer
Bruce Bodine was named President of The Mosaic Company and became a member of the board of directors in August 2023, assuming the Chief Executive Officer role in January 2024. He began his career with Mosaic in 1999, as part of a predecessor company. Throughout his tenure, he has held various executive positions including Senior Vice President – North America, Senior Vice President – Phosphates, Senior Vice President – Potash, and Vice President – Supply Chain. Bodine led the integration of Mosaic's North America Businesses and currently oversees enterprise-wide operations. He serves on the boards of Canpotex, The International Fertilizer Association (IFA), The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), the National Manufacturer's Association (NAM), and the Miski Mayo mining company, a joint venture where Mosaic is the operating partner.
Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Luciano Siani Pires became Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Mosaic Company on January 1, 2025. He was previously a member of Mosaic's Board of Directors from 2018 to 2022. Prior to joining Mosaic, Mr. Siani Pires held several senior leadership roles at Vale S.A., a global mining company, including Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development from 2021 to 2023 and Chief Financial Officer from 2012 to 2021. He also served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of VLI S.A. from 2017 to 2023. His experience also includes roles as a senior business development advisor for Accenture's Natural Resources Group and as a consultant at McKinsey & Company. From 2007 to 2008, he was chief of staff and executive secretary to the president at Brazil's National Development Bank, where he had previously headed the Capital Markets and Export Finance departments.
Karen Swager, Executive Vice President, Operations
Karen Swager serves as Executive Vice President, Operations at The Mosaic Company. She was previously the Senior Vice President—Supply Chain.
Yijun "Jenny" Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial
Yijun "Jenny" Wang was named Executive Vice President, Commercial, in January 2024. In this role, she leads enterprise-wide commercial organizations, the Mosaic Biosciences initiative, and Global Strategic Marketing, with responsibility for global sales, marketing, product management, new product research and development, and market and strategic analysis. Ms. Wang joined Mosaic in 2011, and prior to her current role, she was SVP-Global Strategic Marketing, Head of China and India, effective January 1, 2022. Before joining Mosaic, she spent 16 years at Syngenta, holding various leadership roles in Sales, Marketing, Strategy, Business Development, Global Product Management, and as Country Managing Director in China, Vietnam, and Switzerland. She also serves on the Board of Directors at Canpotex.
Phil Bauer, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Phil Bauer was promoted to Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary in January 2023. He joined Mosaic in 2007 and has managed legal support for business development, potash operations, offshore finance, commercial transactions, and corporate governance. Prior to his promotion, he was the Vice President—Growth and Development. Before joining Mosaic, Mr. Bauer was a partner at an international law firm, focusing his practice on mergers and acquisitions, public and private securities offerings, public company compliance matters, and general business advising.
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) faces several key risks inherent to its operations in the global agricultural input industry.Key Risks to The Mosaic Company (MOS)
- Market Volatility and Commodity Price Fluctuations: The Mosaic Company's financial performance is highly susceptible to the unpredictable and volatile prices of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, as well as the costs of key raw materials such as sulfur and ammonia. The cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry, coupled with fluctuating agricultural market conditions, including crop prices and farming economics, directly impacts the demand for its products and, consequently, its revenues and profitability.
- Operational Risks and Production Disruptions: The company faces significant operational risks stemming from its complex supply chains and large-scale production facilities. These risks include potential equipment failures, labor issues, and disruptions caused by adverse weather events, such as hurricanes, which have previously led to production losses. Challenges in implementing new technologies or optimizing production processes can also impede the achievement of operational goals and impact production volumes and costs.
- Geopolitical Tensions, Trade Policy, and Regional Market Instability: Global geopolitical instability and trade wars pose considerable risks to Mosaic's business by potentially disrupting supply chains, imposing trade restrictions or tariffs, and hindering expansion strategies in key international markets. Additionally, specific regional economic challenges, such as ongoing credit issues within the Brazilian agricultural market, directly impact the sales volume and cash flow of Mosaic's Fertilizantes segment.
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```htmlThe addressable markets for Mosaic's main products are substantial globally and within North America.
Phosphates
- Globally, the phosphate market size was valued at approximately USD 180.60 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to about USD 300.13 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% during the forecast period.
- In North America, the phosphate market reached a value of USD 18.63 billion in 2025.
Potash
- The global potash market size accounted for USD 66.11 billion in 2025. It is predicted to increase to approximately USD 106.09 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 4.84% from 2026 to 2035.
- In North America, the potash market generated a revenue of USD 9.44 billion in 2024. This market is expected to reach a projected revenue of USD 14.23 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2025 to 2032.
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and favorable market dynamics.
- Strong Global Demand and Favorable Pricing for Phosphate and Potash: Mosaic anticipates continued demand growth for its core phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company projects a 1.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for phosphate and a 2% CAGR for potash through 2030, driven by the overall recovery and increase in global fertilizer use. Phosphate prices saw an increase for the third consecutive year in 2025, and potash prices also climbed, indicating a supportive pricing environment. Emerging U.S. demand for phosphate, as farmers prepare for spring planting, further contributes to this positive outlook.
- Significant Volume Growth in Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil Market Expansion): Expansion within the high-growth Brazilian agricultural market is a crucial revenue driver. Mosaic completed a $350 million expansion of its Coronel terminal in 2024, significantly increasing its blending and storage capacity by over 40%. Through a strategic partnership with distributor Maurello & Maurello, Mosaic is deepening its penetration into the South American market. The company expects Mosaic Fertilizantes' sales volumes to grow from 9.2 million tonnes in 2024 to 13-14 million tonnes by 2027, capitalizing on the expanding market.
- Expansion of Performance Products, Including Mosaic Biosciences: Mosaic is strategically focusing on higher-margin performance products, such as its MicroEssentials premium fertilizer line and the growing Mosaic Biosciences portfolio. The MicroEssentials line achieved double-digit annual growth in 2024, with sales reaching approximately 3.5 million metric tons. Mosaic Biosciences demonstrated substantial growth, doubling net sales to $68 million in 2025, with a goal to double net sales again in 2026, supported by 8 to 10 new product launches. This segment is expected to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2025, with long-term aspirations of generating $250-500 million in adjusted EBITDA.
- Increased Production Volumes and Improved Operational Performance in Core Segments: The company is focused on enhancing its operational efficiency and increasing production volumes in its phosphate and potash segments. Mosaic has made progress in improving phosphate production performance and is on track to deliver stronger results through improved operational foundation and lower operating costs. The ramp-up of the K3 potash mine, with first production scheduled for late 2027, is anticipated to add an estimated 2.5 million tonnes of annual potash capacity, significantly bolstering its position as a low-cost producer and contributing to future revenue streams.
- Cost Reductions and Operational Efficiencies: While not a direct revenue driver, significant cost reductions and operational efficiencies enhance profitability and indirectly support revenue growth by allowing for competitive pricing and reinvestment. Mosaic achieved its $150 million cost savings objective ahead of schedule in 2025 and has expanded its target to $250 million in savings by 2026. These savings are driven by initiatives such as a $300 million overhaul of its enterprise business software platform, expected to yield $70 million in annualized savings by the end of 2025.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2023, Mosaic returned $1.1 billion to shareholders, including $756 million in share repurchases.
- In 2022, share repurchases totaled $1.7 billion.
- As of December 31, 2024, the company completed a buyback program, initiated in August 2022, repurchasing 26,679,815 shares for approximately $1.07 billion.
- In August 2021, Mosaic's board approved a new $1 billion share buyback authorization, which replaced an earlier authorization that had $700 million remaining.
Share Issuance
- Mosaic's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the past few years due to share repurchases. For instance, shares outstanding declined by 3.75% in 2024 from 2023, 6.4% in 2023 from 2022, and 6.71% in 2022 from 2021.
Outbound Investments
- In 2023, Mosaic sold the Streamsong golf resort for $160 million.
- In December 2024, the company converted its 25% equity investment in the Ma'aden Wa'ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (MWSPC) joint venture into shares of Ma'aden, and also signed an agreement to sell its Patos de Minas mine in Brazil.
- Mosaic is advancing strategic alternatives for its Brazilian assets and working on the monetization of Florida land holdings.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $1.4 billion in 2023 and approximately $1.25 billion in 2024.
- Expected capital expenditures are in the range of $1.2 to $1.3 billion for 2025, and projected to be $1.5 billion for 2026.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes maintaining assets, investing in high-returning projects to grow the business, and completing major projects such as the Esterhazy K3 potash mine and a new fertilizer blending and distribution facility in Palmeirante, Brazil.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -16.7% |
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| 12312024 | MOS | Mosaic | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 51.9% | 1.1% | -6.6% |
| 12312022 | MOS | Mosaic | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.0% | -16.4% | -26.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| Rev LTM | 9,568 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,727 |
| FCF LTM | 913 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 850 |
| CFO LTM | 1,788 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,975 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 34.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -17.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.6 |
| P/EBIT | 8.7 |
| P/E | 14.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 20.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/26/1988 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -37.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $26.23 | $28.49 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -11.6% | -18.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.6% | 42.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.49 | 0.24 |
| Upside Capture | -16.42 | 5.27 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 17.1% | 13.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.38 | 1.04 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Up Beta | -2.26 | 0.37 | -0.01 | 0.24 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Down Beta | 2.97 | 3.61 | 2.16 | 1.91 | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Up Capture | 72% | -10% | 32% | 17% | 23% | 20% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 32 | 57 | 127 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 122% | 56% | 3% | 99% | 56% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 29 | 66 | 122 | 376 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS | -18.0% | 42.1% | -0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 27.0% | 16.4% | 1.28 | 39.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.92 | 14.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.6% | 27.2% | 1.18 | 22.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.9% | 18.0% | 1.95 | 25.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 13.4% | 0.75 | 14.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 42.1% | -0.39 | 9.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS | -4.9% | 41.8% | 0.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.5% | 18.9% | 0.24 | 51.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 35.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 17.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.8% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 36.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 14.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS | -0.1% | 44.9% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.6% | 0.45 | 59.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 45.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 38.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 36.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 14.4% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/24/2026 | -5.3% | -6.0% | -7.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.2% | -3.2% | -10.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | -13.3% | -12.6% | -8.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | -4.7% | -0.6% | 9.6% |
| 11/12/2024 | -7.7% | -7.9% | -3.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | -1.4% | 4.1% | -0.9% |
| 5/1/2024 | -5.1% | -1.2% | 3.3% |
| 2/21/2024 | 6.6% | 2.2% | 6.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 6.0% | 9.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -8.0% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 34.5% | 54.1% |
| Max Negative | -13.3% | -13.9% | -22.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Phosphate Sales Volumes | 1.70 Mil | 1.80 Mil | 1.90 Mil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 1.80 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 DAP FOB Plant Prices | 640 | 655 | 670 | -8.4% | Lower New | Actual: 715 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Potash Sales Volumes | 2.00 Mil | 2.10 Mil | 2.20 Mil | -14.3% | Lower New | Actual: 2.45 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 MOP FOB Mine Prices | 255 | 265 | 275 | -3.6% | Lower New | Actual: 275 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 1.50 Bil | 15.4% | Higher New | Actual: 1.30 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Phosphate Production Volumes | 7.00 Mil | 9.4% | Higher New | Actual: 6.40 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Potash Production Volumes | 9.00 Mil | -2.7% | Lower New | Actual: 9.25 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization | 1.10 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.20 Bil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 1.15 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Selling, General, and Administrative Expense | 530.00 Mil | 540.00 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 540.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | 200.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 10.5% | Higher New | Actual: 190.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuzenko, Jody Lynne | Direct | Buy | 11132025 | 25.53 | 685 | 17,488 | 218,818 | Form | |
| 2 | Precourt, Walter F Iii | SVP - Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022025 | 35.73 | 18,000 | 643,140 | 4,592,949 | Form |
| 3 | Bodine, Bruce M | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5092025 | 31.56 | 180,708 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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