Mosaic (MOS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.12 | Market Cap: $7.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Mosaic (MOS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.12Market Cap: $7.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Nutrient Management, and Crop Nutrient Optimization. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Nutrient Management, and Crop Nutrient Optimization. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MOS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the approximate 27% stock movement for Mosaic (MOS) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Q2 2025 Earnings Miss: The Mosaic Company reported second-quarter 2025 earnings on August 5th and 6th, which significantly missed analyst expectations. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.51 fell short of the forecasted $0.72, and revenue of $3.01 billion was below the $3.16 billion forecast. This substantial miss led to an initial stock decline of over 11% following the announcement.
2. Preliminary Q3 Production Shortfalls and Shipping Delays: On October 10, 2025, Mosaic announced preliminary third-quarter volumes that were lower than anticipated, particularly in its phosphate segment. Phosphate production reached approximately 1.7 million tonnes but was below expected levels due to unexpected mechanical issues at the Riverview sulfuric acid plant and utility interruptions at the Bartow facility. Additionally, phosphate sales volumes lagged production primarily due to shipment delays, causing the stock to drop 10% in early trading.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MOS Return | 8% | 72% | 13% | -16% | -29% | 1% | 25% |
| Peers Return | -4% | 94% | 1% | -27% | -18% | 6% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MOS Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MOS Max Drawdown | -68% | 0% | -1% | -27% | -31% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -11% | -21% | -42% | -30% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CF, FMC, CMP, LXU, IPI. See MOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 214.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 619 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 622.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to CF, FMC, CMP, LXU, IPI
In The Past
Mosaic's stock fell -59.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -59.4% loss requires a 146.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 12312024 | MOS | Mosaic | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 51.9% | 1.4% | -6.6% |
| 12312022 | MOS | Mosaic | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.0% | -16.4% | -26.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 12312024 | MOS | Mosaic | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 51.9% | 1.4% | -6.6% |
| 12312022 | MOS | Mosaic | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.0% | -16.4% | -26.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mosaic
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Kuzenko Jody Lynne | 11132025 | Buy | 25.53 | 685 | 17,488 | 218,818 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |