Boston Beer (SAM)
Market Price (9/20/2026): $171.56 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Brewers
Boston Beer (SAM)
Market Price (9/20/2026): $171.56Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Brewers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Adult Beverage Innovation. Themes include Craft & Premium Alcoholic Beverages, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.3% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.1% Key risksSAM key risks include [1] declining volumes in its key Truly and Samuel Adams brands amid shifting consumer preferences, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Adult Beverage Innovation. Themes include Craft & Premium Alcoholic Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.1% |
| Key risksSAM key risks include [1] declining volumes in its key Truly and Samuel Adams brands amid shifting consumer preferences, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Boston Beer (SAM) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Boston Beer Company reported disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 results (for the 13 weeks ended June 27, 2026), significantly missing earnings expectations. The company announced non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.65, substantially missing analysts' consensus estimates of $4.83 by $1.18. While net revenue of $568.34 million slightly surpassed expectations, it still represented a 3.3% decrease year-over-year.
2. The company experienced continued declines in core brand volumes and faced intensified competitive pressures. Depletions decreased 6% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, and shipments were down 4.5%. This decline was driven by several key brands, including Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams, Hard Mountain Dew, and Dogfish Head, despite modest increases in Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard brands. This indicates ongoing challenges in market share, particularly within the highly competitive "beyond beer" categories such as hard seltzer, even as the broader hard seltzer market is projected to grow.
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Boston Beer (SAM) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Boston Beer Company reported disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 results (for the 13 weeks ended June 27, 2026), significantly missing earnings expectations. The company announced non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.65, substantially missing analysts' consensus estimates of $4.83 by $1.18. While net revenue of $568.34 million slightly surpassed expectations, it still represented a 3.3% decrease year-over-year.
2. The company experienced continued declines in core brand volumes and faced intensified competitive pressures. Depletions decreased 6% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, and shipments were down 4.5%. This decline was driven by several key brands, including Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams, Hard Mountain Dew, and Dogfish Head, despite modest increases in Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard brands. This indicates ongoing challenges in market share, particularly within the highly competitive "beyond beer" categories such as hard seltzer, even as the broader hard seltzer market is projected to grow.
3. Analyst downgrades and reduced price targets followed the weak financial performance and outlook. In the wake of the Q2 2026 earnings report on July 23, 2026, several brokerage firms adjusted their ratings and price objectives. For example, on July 24, 2026, Roth Capital reaffirmed a "buy" rating but lowered its price target from $315.00 to $295.00, while Citigroup cut its price objective from $195.00 to $185.00 and maintained a "neutral" rating. Additionally, Zacks Research downgraded Boston Beer from a "hold" to a "strong sell" rating on the same day, reflecting diminished confidence in the company's near-term prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.2% change in SAM stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 177.28 | 171.57 | -3.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,945 | 1,925 | -1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.0 | 0.9 | -3.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10 | 10 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAM | -3.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | -14.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | -0.1% | 56.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.3% change in SAM stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 226.78 | 171.57 | -24.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,965 | 1,925 | -2.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 0.9 | -24.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 11 | 10 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAM | -24.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | -10.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | -7.5% | 36.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.4% change in SAM stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 221.09 | 171.57 | -22.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,050 | 1,925 | -6.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 0.9 | -22.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 11 | 10 | 6.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAM | -22.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | -3.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 4.6% | 39.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -53.0% change in SAM stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 365.43 | 171.57 | -53.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,057 | 1,925 | -6.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 0.9 | -57.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 12 | 10 | 18.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -53.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAM | -53.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 22.6% | 38.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAM Return | -49% | -35% | 5% | -13% | -35% | -12% | -83% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 4% | 7% | -6% | -4% | 1% | 15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAM Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 53% | 57% | 48% | 52% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAM Max Drawdown | -66% | -44% | -28% | -31% | -38% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -17% | -19% | -21% | -26% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: STZ, TAP, MNST, KDP, PEP. See SAM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SAM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -19.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 841 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 813 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Boston Beer's stock fell -7.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 8.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | SAM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 841 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 813 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 155 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Boston Beer's stock fell -7.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 8.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Boston Beer (SAM)
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is a leading producer and seller of alcoholic beverages, primarily operating within the United States but with a growing international presence. Established in 1984, the company has evolved significantly from its origins as a craft beer pioneer to a diversified player in the adult beverage industry.
The company's product portfolio is extensive and includes several well-known brands across various categories. Its flagship product remains Samuel Adams Boston Lager, complemented by other popular beer brands like Dogfish Head. Beyond beer, Boston Beer is a significant player in hard ciders with Angry Orchard, a major force in the hard seltzer market with Truly Hard Seltzer, and offers the popular ready-to-drink Twisted Tea. This broad range allows the company to cater to diverse consumer tastes in the alcoholic beverage sector.
Boston Beer primarily serves its markets through an indirect distribution model. In the United States, it sells its products to a network of approximately 400 wholesalers, who in turn distribute to various retail outlets such as grocery stores, club stores, convenience stores, liquor stores, bars, and restaurants. The company also extends its reach internationally, selling its products through wholesalers and importers in Canada, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, and parts of Central and South America, among other regions.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Boston Beer (SAM):
The PepsiCo of alcoholic beverages.
A smaller, craft-focused Anheuser-Busch InBev.
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- Samuel Adams: Produces a range of beers, most notably its flagship Samuel Adams Boston Lager.
- Twisted Tea: Offers hard ciders and hard seltzers under this brand.
- Truly Hard Seltzer: Specializes in hard seltzers.
- Angry Orchard: Known for its range of hard ciders.
- Dogfish Head: Produces various beers.
- Angel City: Offers various beers.
- Coney Island: Produces various beers.
- Concrete Beach: Offers various beers.
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The Boston Beer Company (SAM) sells its products primarily to other businesses. Its major customers are a network of approximately 400 wholesalers in the United States, as well as international wholesalers, importers, and other agencies that in turn sell to various retailers. The provided background information does not list the specific names of these customer companies.
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- Malteurop
- Hopsteiner
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Jim Koch, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Koch founded The Boston Beer Company in 1984, bringing to life a generations-old family recipe for Samuel Adams Boston Lager. Prior to establishing the brewery, he worked as a consultant for an international consulting firm with a focus on manufacturing. He previously served as President and CEO from 1984 until January 2001 and reassumed the role of Chief Executive Officer in August 2025. His career began as a consultant with the Boston Consulting Group.
Diego Reynoso, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Diego Reynoso joined Boston Beer as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer in September 2023. He brings over 25 years of experience in finance and operations within the alcoholic beverage and food industries. Before his tenure at Boston Beer, Mr. Reynoso served as the Chief Financial Officer of the Prepared Foods division of Tyson Foods from 2021 to 2023. From 2017 to 2021, he was the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the $5 billion beer division at Constellation Brands. He also held various senior financial and operational roles at Beam Suntory Inc. from 2005 to 2017. Earlier in his career, he held positions at Allied-Domecq, Danone, and Procter & Gamble. He is currently a member of the Board of Directors of SunOpta Inc.
Phil Hodges, Chief Operating Officer
Phil Hodges was named Chief Operating Officer of The Boston Beer Company in October 2025. He previously served as the Chief Supply Chain Officer (CSCO) for the company since May 2023, after providing supply chain consulting services since 2022. Mr. Hodges possesses more than 30 years of experience in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector, including roles as CSCO of Carlsberg, Chief Financial Officer of Kraft Foods International, and General Manager of Mondelez in Southeast Asia.
Michael Crowley, Chief Sales Officer
Michael Crowley was appointed Chief Sales Officer of Boston Beer in January 2024. He has a long history with the company, having worked in senior sales roles since 1996. His previous positions include Atlantic Division Senior Sales Director from 2014 to 2023, Senior National Account Manager from 2011 to 2014, and Regional Sales Manager for New York and New Jersey from 1996 to 2011.
Matt Murphy, Chief Accounting Officer and Vice President of Finance
Matt Murphy serves as the Chief Accounting Officer and Vice President of Finance at Boston Beer. He also held the role of Interim Chief Financial Officer from April 2023 to September 2023. Mr. Murphy was appointed Chief Accounting Officer in August 2015 and previously served as the Corporate Controller of Boston Beer since September 2006.
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The Boston Beer Company (SAM) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from challenges in maintaining brand volume and navigating an intensely competitive and evolving alcoholic beverage market.
- Declining Brand Volumes and Shifting Consumer Preferences: The most significant risk to Boston Beer is the persistent decline in volumes for key brands, notably Truly Hard Seltzer and Samuel Adams, with recent indications of declines even in Twisted Tea. This volume pressure is a number one internal risk, driven by a rapidly shifting consumer landscape that includes moderation trends, new industry headwinds like weight loss medications, and a growing shift toward cannabis use. Despite efforts to improve gross margins through price increases and operational efficiencies, the core issue of declining demand for its flagship products remains a major drag on the company's financial performance.
- Intense Competition and Market Volatility: The alcoholic beverage market is characterized by intense competition from both large international and domestic players (e.g., Anheuser-Busch InBev, Molson Coors, Constellation Brands) and numerous smaller craft brewers. Boston Beer's reliance on "Beyond Beer" categories, particularly hard seltzers, exposes it to significant market volatility. The hard seltzer category, which once saw rapid growth, has experienced significant declines in recent years, with dollar sales dropping approximately 8% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. This over-saturation of the market with similar products has led to consumer confusion and a challenging environment for maintaining market share.
- Supply Chain and Contractual Obligations: The company is subject to supply chain risks, including contractual obligations with third-party producers that have resulted in "shortfall fees" negatively impacting gross margins. For example, the company still anticipates an unfavorable cost impact from contractual obligations, with shortfall fees and non-cash expenses from third-party production pre-payments negatively impacting gross margins. Additionally, reliance on independent distributors and foreign suppliers for raw materials could lead to complications within the supply chain and potential drops in production volume. Regulatory risks, such as tariffs, also contribute to an unfavorable cost impact on the company's bottom line.
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The addressable markets for Boston Beer's main products are as follows:
Beer
- The global beer market size was valued at approximately USD 902.12 billion in 2025.
- In the United States, the beer market size reached approximately USD 109.3 billion in 2025.
Hard Cider
- The global hard cider market size was valued at approximately USD 17.42 billion in 2025.
- In the United States, hard cider sales reached USD 502 million in 2025.
Hard Seltzer
- The global hard seltzer market size was calculated to be approximately USD 34.07 billion in 2025.
- In North America, the hard seltzer market accounted for approximately USD 19.13 billion in 2025.
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For The Boston Beer Company (SAM), several key initiatives and market trends are expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Continued Growth and Innovation in the "Beyond Beer" Category, especially Twisted Tea and Sun Cruiser: Boston Beer has a significant presence in the "Beyond Beer" segment, which constitutes a large portion of its total volume and is expected to continue growing. Twisted Tea remains a strong performer and a consistent growth driver for the company, with plans for increased advertising and new product variations to expand drinker occasions. Additionally, Sun Cruiser Iced Tea & Vodka, launched in 2024, has shown rapid growth in volumes (over 300% year-over-year in 2025) and is considered a key, margin-accretive innovation with further expansion planned for 2026.
- Strategic Pricing and Favorable Product Mix: The company has been successful in driving revenue through price increases and an optimized product mix, focusing on higher-margin offerings. This strategy helps to offset volume pressures in certain categories and contributes to overall revenue expansion.
- Increased Brand Investments and Marketing: Boston Beer plans to significantly increase advertising and promotional spending for its core brands, including Twisted Tea and Truly, as well as new innovations. These investments in media and local marketing are aimed at enhancing brand visibility, improving market share trends, and driving long-term performance.
- Disciplined Launch and Expansion of New Products and Innovations: Despite headwinds in the broader hard seltzer market, Boston Beer maintains a "fewer things better" approach to innovation. Successful new products like Truly Unruly (an 8% ABV hard seltzer) have become top growth drivers in their sub-categories. The company is actively testing new brands and intends to expand successful innovations like Sun Cruiser, while also launching additional new brands in the coming years.
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Share Repurchases
- Boston Beer repurchased approximately $199.2 million in shares during 2025, with an additional $13.7 million repurchased through February 20, 2026.
- The company repurchased $238.614 million in shares in 2024.
- As of February 20, 2026, approximately $215 million remained on the $1.6 billion share repurchase authorization.
Share Issuance
- No significant large-scale share issuances for cash were reported. Equity awards, such as performance-based stock options and restricted stock, were granted to executives as part of compensation, with vesting schedules extending through 2027.
Inbound Investments
- No information available.
Outbound Investments
- No information available.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 were $54.563 million, reduced from an earlier forecast.
- Capital expenditures were $76.277 million in 2024 and $64.087 million in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $70 million and $90 million, primarily focused on company-owned breweries to build capabilities, improve efficiency, and expand local capacity.
Peer Outperformance in Brewers
null| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAM | Boston Beer | -2.1% | -25.4x | -23.1% | -53.8% | -67.3% | — |
| TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | -0.2% | -3.1x | -15.8% | -35.5% | -1.8% | +65pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail | 12 | 5.2% | 35.8% | 55.2% | NGVC 255% · VLGEA 147% · WMT 139% |
| Food Retail | 6 | -6.4% | 50.7% | 47.9% | CASY 228% · SFM 216% · KR 65% |
| Tobacco | 6 | -38.5% | 10.6% | 42.4% | PM 136% · MO 112% · TPB 59% |
| Food Distributors | 9 | -1.3% | 34.7% | 18.5% | CHEF 266% · USFD 179% · ANDE 165% |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages | 12 | -5.7% | -18.9% | 1.1% | COKE 427% · BRFH 176% · CCHGY 112% |
| Brewers ← | 3 | -15.8% | -35.5% | -1.8% | BUD 46% · TAP -2% · SAM -67% |
| Agricultural Products & Services | 11 | -3.4% | 6.9% | -10.3% | BG 71% · ADM 62% · INGR 29% |
| Household Products | 19 | 2.0% | -11.4% | -16.5% | IPAR 88% · ACU 85% · CL 29% |
| Personal Care Products | 4 | -3.4% | -8.7% | -25.5% | ELF 232% · PG 16% · EL -68% |
| Packaged Foods & Meats | 47 | -26.2% | -36.7% | -40.8% | MAMA 450% · LWAY 325% · SENEA 304% |
| Distillers & Vintners | 5 | -45.5% | -59.7% | -76.4% | STZ -38% · BF-B -58% · MGPI -76% |
| Drug Retail | 3 | -41.0% | -85.8% | -93.3% | HITI -58% · PETS -93% · SCNX -99% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 81.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 31.4 |
| Rev LTM | 10,151 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,776 |
| FCF LTM | 1,880 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,634 |
| CFO LTM | 2,383 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,060 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -7.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 31.4 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.4 |
| P/EBIT | 13.2 |
| P/E | 14.6 |
| P/CFO | 10.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -27.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -98.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $171.57 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/21/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $178.83 | $202.67 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -4.1% | -15.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.9% | 38.0% |
| Downside Capture | -47.55 | -7.23 |
| Upside Capture | -55.96 | -36.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -20.5% | -3.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.33 | -0.47 | -0.57 | -0.35 | -0.10 | 0.36 |
| Up Beta | -0.39 | -1.44 | -0.71 | -0.34 | 0.14 | 0.48 |
| Down Beta | -1.94 | -0.03 | -0.24 | -0.40 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| Up Capture | 56% | -15% | -52% | -39% | -21% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 36 | 65 | 130 | 365 |
| Down Capture | 174% | -23% | -80% | -11% | -26% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 28 | 62 | 121 | 385 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SAM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAM | -24.0% | 37.8% | -0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.3% | 14.5% | 0.13 | 39.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | -3.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.3% | 20.6% | 1.73 | -7.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 31.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.6% | 44.3% | -0.70 | 4.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SAM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAM | -20.1% | 38.4% | -0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.5% | 13.7% | 0.18 | 37.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 32.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.5% | 0.45 | -0.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 35.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.5% | 0.42 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SAM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAM | -0.1% | 40.8% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.1% | 14.9% | 0.34 | 35.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 32.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 31.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.6% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 11.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/25/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | 3.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% |
| 4/30/2026 | -9.6% | -14.4% | -29.4% |
| 2/24/2026 | -4.3% | -0.5% | -1.4% |
| 10/23/2025 | 5.5% | -6.2% | -10.8% |
| 7/24/2025 | 6.5% | 2.6% | 10.8% |
| 4/24/2025 | 2.3% | 1.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/25/2025 | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | -2.0% | -3.6% | 3.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.8% | -7.2% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 19.7% | 15.1% | 13.4% |
| Max Negative | -26.0% | -25.5% | -37.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | 3.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% |
| 4/30/2026 | -9.6% | -14.4% | -29.4% |
| 2/24/2026 | -4.3% | -0.5% | -1.4% |
| 10/23/2025 | 5.5% | -6.2% | -10.8% |
| 7/24/2025 | 6.5% | 2.6% | 10.8% |
| 4/24/2025 | 2.3% | 1.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/25/2025 | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | -2.0% | -3.6% | 3.6% |
| 7/25/2024 | 7.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | -1.4% | -2.9% | -9.2% |
| 2/27/2024 | -15.8% | -19.7% | -16.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | -12.4% | -8.7% | -7.9% |
| 7/27/2023 | 16.8% | 14.3% | 13.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | 0.4% | -3.7% | 0.5% |
| 2/15/2023 | -14.7% | -14.5% | -21.0% |
| 10/20/2022 | 19.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% |
| 7/21/2022 | 6.2% | 12.3% | 9.6% |
| 4/21/2022 | 1.4% | 9.0% | -4.8% |
| 2/16/2022 | -2.7% | -8.2% | -1.6% |
| 10/21/2021 | 1.6% | -4.0% | -10.1% |
| 7/22/2021 | -26.0% | -25.5% | -37.9% |
| 4/22/2021 | 3.0% | -2.9% | -16.1% |
| 2/17/2021 | -8.0% | -10.9% | -12.7% |
| 10/22/2020 | 18.8% | 15.1% | 2.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.8% | -7.2% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 19.7% | 15.1% | 13.4% |
| Max Negative | -26.0% | -25.5% | -37.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/29/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Price Increases | Reported | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.01 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Tariff Costs | Reported | 20.00 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Advertising, Promotion, and Selling Expense Year Over Year Change | Reported | 0 | 10.00 Mil | 20.00 Mil | -66.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 30.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Spending | Reported | 60.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | -12.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 80.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin | Reported | 48.5% | 49.25% | 50.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 49.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Tax Rate | Reported | -12.0% | -11.5% | -11.0% | -1.5% | Lowered | Guidance: -10.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non GAAP Tax Rate | Reported | 29.0% | 29.5% | 30.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 29.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | -6.23 | -5.23 | -4.23 | -13.1% | Raised | Guidance: -6.02 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non GAAP EPS | Reported | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.5 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Price Increases | Reported | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.01 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Tariff Costs | Reported | 20.00 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Advertising, Promotion, and Selling Expense Year Over Year Change | Reported | 20.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 30.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Spending | Reported | 70.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 80.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin (including Tariffs) | Reported | 48.0% | 49.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 49.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Tax Rate (Benefit)/ Provision | Reported | -10.5% | -10.0% | -9.5% | ||||
| 2026 Non GAAP Tax Rate Provision | Reported | 29.0% | 29.5% | 30.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 29.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS (Income/ (Loss)) | Reported | -7.02 | -6.02 | -5.02 | ||||
| 2026 Non GAAP EPS | Reported | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | -2.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.75 for 2026 | |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 20, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Brewers Resources |
| Brewers Association |
| Master Brewers Association (MBAA) |
| Craft Beer & Brewing - Industry Guide |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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