Monster Beverage (MNST)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $77.2 | Market Cap: $75.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Monster Beverage (MNST)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $77.2Market Cap: $75.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Nutritional Supplements. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.1x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x Key risksMNST key risks include [1] regulatory and health scrutiny targeting its core energy and alcohol products, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Nutritional Supplements. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.1x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Key risksMNST key risks include [1] regulatory and health scrutiny targeting its core energy and alcohol products, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Elevated commodity costs and delayed margin recovery expectations have put pressure on profitability. Monster Beverage's management indicated that aluminum cost pressure would be "a little bit higher" in the first and second quarters of 2026. This outlook has led analysts to anticipate a "more prolonged inflationary backdrop," pushing expectations for significant gross margin recovery into late 2026 and 2027.
2. Multiple analyst price targets were reduced in April 2026, signaling a more cautious outlook from Wall Street. For instance, TD Cowen adjusted its price target from $88 to $80, RBC from $88 to $86, Wells Fargo from $90 to $85, and UBS from $92 to $80. These revisions contributed to a dampening of investor sentiment during the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.4% change in MNST stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.76 | 77.20 | -4.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,975 | 8,294 | 4.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.7% | 23.0% | 6.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.7 | 39.6 | -13.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 977 | 978 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNST | -4.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 42.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.4% | 61.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.5% change in MNST stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 66.83 | 77.20 | 15.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,659 | 8,294 | 8.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 23.0% | 11.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.4 | 39.6 | -4.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 976 | 978 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNST | 15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 11.9% | 49.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.4% change in MNST stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 60.12 | 77.20 | 28.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,493 | 8,294 | 10.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.1% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.7 | 39.6 | 2.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 973 | 978 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNST | 28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 14.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.8% | 50.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.9% change in MNST stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.00 | 77.20 | 37.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,311 | 8,294 | 31.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.9% | 23.0% | 21.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 49.1 | 39.6 | -19.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,045 | 978 | 6.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNST | 37.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 25.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 18.0% | 50.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MNST Return | 4% | 6% | 13% | -9% | 46% | -1% | 64% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 12% | 10% | -12% | 10% | 2% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 6% | 93% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MNST Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 43% | 52% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MNST Max Drawdown | -12% | -25% | -6% | -22% | -12% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -17% | -15% | -17% | -16% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PEP, KO, CELH, KDP, FIZZ. See MNST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MNST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.2% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -16.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Monster Beverage's stock fell -0.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | MNST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 62 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Monster Beverage's stock fell -0.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Monster Beverage (MNST)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Monster Beverage is like **the Coca-Cola of energy drinks**.
Alternatively, think of it as **a PepsiCo focused on the energy drink and specialty beverage market**.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Energy Drinks: Carbonated and non-carbonated beverages formulated to provide an energy boost, including flagship Monster Energy products and brands like Reign, NOS, and Full Throttle.
- Ready-to-Drink Coffee & Dairy Beverages: Prepared coffee and dairy-based drinks, often with an added energy or protein component, found under brands like Java Monster and Muscle Monster.
- Juice-Based Beverages: A variety of juice cocktails, single-serve juices, and fruit beverages offered through lines such as Punch Monster and Juice Monster.
- Hydration and Sports Drinks: Still waters, flavored energy waters, and performance-enhancing sports drinks, including the Monster Hydro and Monster Super Fuel series.
- Iced Teas and Lemonades: Ready-to-drink teas and lemonades, such as the Monster Dragon Tea products.
- Sparkling Juices and Flavored Sodas: Natural sparkling juices and flavored sparkling beverages, exemplified by the True North brand.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) primarily sells its products to other companies, acting as a business-to-business (B2B) supplier.
Its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Beverage Bottlers and Distributors: These companies purchase concentrates and/or finished Monster products for bottling, distribution, and sale in various markets globally. The most significant customer in this category, fitting the description of a "bottler" and "full-service beverage distributor" for Monster globally, is The Coca-Cola Company (KO). Through a strategic partnership, The Coca-Cola Company serves as a primary distributor for Monster's products in many regions, purchasing products for onward distribution to retailers.
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Direct Retail and Wholesale Channels: Monster also sells directly to a wide array of retail and wholesale partners. While specific company names for these direct sales relationships are not provided in the background description, these customers represent various types of businesses that directly purchase and resell Monster's beverages. These include:
- Retail grocery and speciality chains
- Wholesalers
- Club stores
- Mass merchandisers
- Convenience chains
- Drug stores
- Foodservice customers
- Value stores
- E-commerce retailers
- The military (selling to entities like commissaries and base exchanges)
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Rodney C. Sacks, Chairman of the Board
Rodney Sacks, born in South Africa in 1949 or 1950, is a billionaire businessman. He earned a law degree from the University of the Witwatersrand and was the youngest partner at Werksmans, a prominent South African corporate law firm, before emigrating to California in 1989. In 1990, he co-led a consortium with Hilton Schlosberg to acquire Hansen Natural Corporation for $14.5 million, which was later rebranded as Monster Beverage Corporation in 2012. He served as Co-Chief Executive Officer until June 2025, when he transitioned to solely the Chairman of the Board role. Under his leadership, the company launched the highly successful Monster Energy drink line in 2002. Beyond Monster, Sacks and Schlosberg also acquired Thrifty Ice Cream through their holding company, Hilton Holdings, in June 2025.
Hilton H. Schlosberg, Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chairman
Hilton Schlosberg, a South African-born British billionaire businessman born in 1952, holds an MBA from the University of the Witwatersrand. In 1992, he partnered with Rodney Sacks to acquire Hansen Natural Corporation, where he initially served as President and Chief Operating Officer. He also held the position of Chief Financial Officer for over 23 years until 2021. Effective June 13, 2025, Schlosberg assumed the role of sole Chief Executive Officer, having previously served as Co-Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chairman. He was instrumental in revitalizing the company and launching the Monster Energy brand in 2002. Along with Rodney Sacks, he acquired Thrifty Ice Cream through their company, Hilton Holdings.
Thomas J. Kelly, Chief Financial Officer
Thomas J. Kelly serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Monster Beverage Corporation, a role he took on in 2021. He is responsible for overseeing all financial aspects of the company, including financial planning and analysis, corporate finance, and accounting. Kelly is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) with extensive expertise in finance and accounting.
Mark J. Hall, President, Beverage Alcohol and Director
Mark J. Hall has been a Director on Monster Beverage Corporation's Board since January 2014. He currently serves as the President of Beverage Alcohol, a position he has held since May 2023. Prior to this, he played key roles in product ideation, design, and development at Monster Energy Company, which he joined in 1997. Hall was notably instrumental in the launch of the Monster Energy drink in 2002. He also previously held the position of Vice President-Sales at Arizona Beverage Co.
Guy P. Carling, President, EMEA & OSP
Guy P. Carling serves as the President of EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) & OSP for Monster Beverage Corporation. He joined the company in 2010 and has been crucial in expanding Monster's market presence and share across the EMEA region. Carling's strategic approach and deep understanding of diverse markets have been vital in driving the company's international performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Monster Beverage (MNST):
- Intensified Competition and Market Share Erosion: Monster Beverage operates in a fiercely competitive beverage industry, facing challenges from both established players like Red Bull and numerous new entrants. This intense competition can lead to price wars, increased marketing expenditures, and difficulty in maintaining or expanding market share, which could materially impact the company's revenues and operating results.
- Changing Consumer Preferences and Regulatory Scrutiny: There is a growing global trend towards health and wellness, which could reduce demand for energy drinks with high caffeine and sugar content. Coupled with this, the energy drink industry faces increasing regulatory scrutiny regarding the health effects of its ingredients, particularly caffeine. Potential regulatory changes, such as new restrictions on product formulations, marketing practices (especially concerning minors), or the imposition of taxes on sugary drinks, could negatively impact Monster Beverage's product offerings, consumer demand, and financial performance.
- Currency Fluctuations: Given Monster Beverage's significant international sales and operations, its financial performance is susceptible to adverse currency exchange rate fluctuations. Changes in exchange rates can affect the value of international sales and profits when translated back into U.S. dollars, impacting the company's reported financial results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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The addressable market for Monster Beverage's main products, primarily energy drinks, is substantial both globally and in the U.S. Monster Beverage is a significant player in the energy drink market, holding approximately 30.1% of the U.S. energy drink category by retail dollar sales as of Q1 2025. The company's core Monster Energy Drinks segment was its primary revenue generator, contributing 91.6% of net sales in 2024.Global Energy Drink Market
The global energy drinks market was estimated at approximately USD 79.39 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to about USD 125.11 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0% from 2025 to 2030.U.S. Energy Drink Market
In the U.S., the energy drinks market was valued at approximately USD 25.01 billion in 2024. It is expected to expand at a CAGR of 7.2% from 2024 to 2030. Another source indicates the U.S. market was valued at USD 23.19 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 43.08 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 8.1%.AI Analysis | Feedback
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
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International Market Expansion: Monster Beverage has demonstrated significant growth in its international markets, with foreign currency favorably impacting Q4 2025 sales and international net sales rising 26.9% in the same quarter, representing approximately 42% of total sales. The EMEA region, in particular, saw a 32.6% increase in dollar sales, contributing substantially to offshore growth.
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Product Innovation and Portfolio Expansion, particularly in Zero Sugar Offerings: The company continues to expand its product portfolio with innovative offerings, and a strategic focus on zero-sugar products has been a crucial element of its success. Monster Beverage has a robust innovation pipeline planned for 2026 and beyond, with staggered launches expected. The volume mix of no-sugar products reached 40.3% of the portfolio in Q4 2025, aligning with broader consumer trends.
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Strategic Pricing Initiatives: Higher pricing has already contributed to a strong increase in net income for Monster Beverage in Q4 2025. The company is actively conducting an ongoing review of pricing opportunities, both domestically and internationally, to further enhance revenue through improved pricing power.
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Continued Growth of the Core Monster Energy Drinks Segment: The Monster Energy Drinks segment, which includes key brands such as Monster Energy, Reign Total Body Fuel, and Bang Energy drinks, remains a primary driver of the company's performance. This segment experienced an 18.9% increase in net sales in the fourth quarter of 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Monster Beverage authorized a new share repurchase program for up to an additional $500.0 million on November 8, 2023, with approximately $282.8 million remaining under a previously authorized program at that time.
- As of February 26, 2026, approximately $500.0 million remained available under the share repurchase program.
- The company repurchased approximately $3.8 billion of common stock in 2024, which included a $3.0 billion tender offer completed in June 2024.
Share Issuance
- Monster Beverage's shares outstanding have generally declined over the last few years, with 0.984 billion shares outstanding in 2025, a 2.83% decrease from 2024.
- Shares outstanding were 1.013 billion in 2024, a 4.24% decrease from 2023, and 1.058 billion in 2023, a 0.79% decrease from 2022.
Outbound Investments
- On July 31, 2023, Monster Beverage acquired substantially all the assets of Vital Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and certain affiliates (Bang Energy), which included the Bang Energy® drink business and a beverage production facility in Phoenix, Arizona.
- In 2022, Monster Beverage completed the acquisition of Monster Brewing Company, marking its entry into the alcohol beverage sector.
Capital Expenditures
- Monster Beverage's capital expenditures were $264.1 million in fiscal year 2024, which was a peak for the last five years.
- Capital expenditures increased in 2022 to $188.7 million, in 2023 to $221.4 million, and in 2024 to $264.1 million, following a low of $43.868 million in 2021.
- Capital expenditures for the latest twelve months were $195.4 million, and for Q4 2025, they were $28.2 million.
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| 12312024 | MNST | Monster Beverage | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.9% | 45.9% | -12.2% |
| 05312024 | MNST | Monster Beverage | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 23.2% | -13.3% |
| 03312022 | MNST | Monster Beverage | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 10.2% | 35.2% | 0.0% |
| 12312018 | MNST | Monster Beverage | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 31.6% | 29.1% | -2.5% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 57.1 |
| Rev LTM | 12,619 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,014 |
| FCF LTM | 1,758 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,531 |
| CFO LTM | 2,081 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,916 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 57.1 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.6 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 24.6 |
| P/CFO | 21.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -81.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monster Energy® Drinks | 6,865 | 6,555 | 5,833 | 5,221 | 4,305 |
| Strategic Brands | 432 | 377 | 353 | 295 | 266 |
| Alcohol Brands | 172 | 185 | 101 | ||
| Other | 24 | 23 | 23 | 26 | 27 |
| Corporate and unallocated | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 7,493 | 7,140 | 6,311 | 5,541 | 4,599 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monster Energy® Drinks | 2,462 | 2,339 | 1,850 | 1,991 | 1,820 |
| Strategic Brands | 234 | 207 | 198 | 174 | 155 |
| Other | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Corporate overhead expenses, excluding payroll | -193 | ||||
| Alcohol Brands | -200 | -81 | -32 | ||
| Corporate payroll expenses | -377 | ||||
| Corporate and unallocated | -515 | -435 | -374 | -348 | |
| Total | 1,930 | 1,953 | 1,585 | 1,797 | 1,633 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $77.20 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 75.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/18/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $76.20 | $72.18 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.3% | 6.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.0% | 22.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.41 | 0.02 |
| Upside Capture | 34.41 | 32.44 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.9% | 14.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| Up Beta | 1.19 | 1.44 | 1.18 | 0.96 | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| Down Beta | 3.20 | 1.12 | 0.65 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| Up Capture | 56% | 19% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 14% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 20 | 34 | 72 | 141 | 405 |
| Down Capture | 33% | 103% | 68% | 14% | 6% | 60% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 23 | 30 | 53 | 110 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNST | 27.2% | 22.6% | 1.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.3% | 12.6% | 0.21 | 50.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.5% | 12.5% | 1.78 | 14.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.9% | 18.0% | 2.20 | -18.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 26.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -14.2% | 42.1% | -0.25 | -3.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNST | 9.6% | 23.9% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.7% | 13.2% | 0.29 | 55.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 42.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.9% | 19.1% | 0.60 | -2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 40.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.7% | 56.1% | 0.37 | 13.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNST | 14.2% | 26.2% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.7% | 14.7% | 0.39 | 58.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 52.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.7% | 16.0% | 0.71 | 6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 44.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 9.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -1.6% | -11.5% | -17.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.2% | 7.2% | 10.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | 5.3% | 7.3% | 11.4% |
| 11/7/2024 | -1.1% | 2.2% | -2.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -10.9% | -8.5% | -3.7% |
| 2/28/2024 | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -6.6% | -2.6% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 9.0% | 13.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.9% | -11.5% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelly, Thomas J | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 77.22 | 8,000 | 617,760 | 4,731,501 | Form |
| 2 | Tirre, Emelie | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 73.31 | 30,000 | 2,199,300 | 4,687,368 | Form |
| 3 | Sacks, Rodney C | Hilrod Holdings XVIII, L.P. | Sell | 12162025 | 73.58 | 16,997 | 1,250,639 | 26,558,554 | Form | |
| 4 | Sacks, Rodney C | Hilrod Holdings XXIII, L.P. | Sell | 12162025 | 73.58 | 52,342 | Form | |||
| 5 | Sacks, Rodney C | Hilrod Holdings XXVI, L.P. | Sell | 12162025 | 73.58 | 137,204 | 10,095,470 | 21,060,656 | Form |
MNST Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Despite a strong fundamental outlook (Regime B), the current premium valuation creates an unfavorable risk/reward skew. The potential downside from a multiple compression (-32.5%) meaningfully outweighs the earnings-driven upside (+17.5%). The resulting probability-adjusted skew of 0.81x is below the 1.0x threshold, indicating that investors are not being adequately compensated for the risk of a growth deceleration.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderThe company exhibits accelerating double-digit growth, commands a premium valuation (P/E >40x), and its investment thesis hinges on the durability of this growth and its competitive moat against new entrants. This aligns with a Type A archetype, where growth sustainability is prioritized over mature cash flow metrics.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Monster's primary value driver is its significant and accelerating growth in international markets, which now represent ~43% of sales and are growing at 23.3%, coupled with continued market share gains in the core U.S. market, where sales growth (16.8%) is outpacing the broader category (12.2%).
- International sales grew 23.3% YoY in Q3 2025, reaching a record ~43% of total revenue.
- Q3 2025 net sales growth of 16.8% outpaced the U.S. energy drink category growth of 12.2%, indicating market share gains.
- Gross margins expanded to 55.7% in Q3 2025, driven by pricing power and supply chain efficiencies, funding further marketing and brand investment.
PRIMARY RISK
The single largest risk is the full integration of Celsius and Alani Nu into the formidable PepsiCo U.S. distribution system. This creates a powerful, unified competitor with a strong 'wellness' brand positioning that directly targets Monster's growth and could lead to an accelerated loss of shelf space and pricing power.
- Celsius Holdings and PepsiCo significantly strengthened their strategic partnership in August 2025, making Celsius the strategic energy lead for PepsiCo in the U.S.
- Celsius's 'performance wellness' positioning is a direct counter to Monster's primary brand image deficit among health-conscious consumers.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| International Sales Growth Rate | > 20% YoY | This is the primary growth engine. Any significant deceleration below this level would challenge the 'durable compounder' thesis and the premium valuation. |
| U.S. Nielsen Market Share vs. Celsius/PepsiCo | Stable to slight share gain | This is the leading indicator for the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. Any sustained loss of share would confirm the competitive threat is materializing, triggering a potential de-rating. |
| Gross Margin % | > 55% | Sustained high gross margins are evidence of pricing power and brand strength. A compression below this level would signal that competitive pressure is forcing discounting. |
International Growth Engine vs. US Competitive Siege
BULL VIEW
International markets (>20% growth) provide a long runway, while brand loyalty and innovation will allow Monster to defend its profitable U.S. share against new competition.
CORE TENSION
Can rapid international expansion and brand strength offset the imminent, full-scale competitive assault in the core U.S. market from the newly integrated PepsiCo/Celsius partnership?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Currently, the Bull case is holding; Q3 2025 net sales growth of 16.8% outpaced the U.S. energy drink category's 12.2% growth, indicating continued market share gains even as the threat mounts.
BEAR VIEW
PepsiCo's distribution muscle will enable Celsius to rapidly take shelf space and capture new 'wellness' consumers, forcing Monster into a margin-compressing defensive price war.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
This Quarter (Q1 2026) | Q1 2026 Nielsen Data Release Watch: U.S. market share change for MNST vs. Celsius/Alani Nu post-Pepsi integration. |
Late February 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & 2026 Guidance Watch: FY 2026 Gross Margin guidance; commentary on aluminum/input costs. |
Mid-2026 | European Union AVMSD Revision Draft Watch: Draft language targeting marketing/sales of high-caffeine drinks to minors. |
Ongoing / Slow Burn | Macro: 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement Watch: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield holding above 4.5%. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
8/7/2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: Reported strong Q2 results with net sales increasing 11.4% year-over-year, demonstrating continued robust demand in the core business. | +6.40% (Surged) $60.80 -> $64.69 |
8/28/2025 | PepsiCo/Celsius Partnership Strengthened Details: Competitor Celsius and partner PepsiCo announced a major strategic partnership expansion, creating a more formidable, unified competitor in the U.S. market. | +0.63% (Flat) $62.02 -> $62.41 |
10/29/2025 | Pre-Earnings Market Pullback Details: Amid a lack of specific company news, the stock saw a notable decline, likely attributable to broader market weakness or investor de-risking ahead of the Q3 earnings report. | -3.98% (Fell notably) $69.32 -> $66.56 |
11/6/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Reported record Q3 sales of $2.2 billion (+16.8% YoY) and expanding gross margins (55.7%), driven by accelerating international growth of 23.3%. | +5.16% (Surged) $66.31 -> $69.73 |
1/2/2026 | European Regulatory Risk Crystallizes Details: A new law in a European country banning energy drink sales to minors became effective, setting a precedent and highlighting risk ahead of a broader 2026 EU directive review. | -0.66% (Muted) $76.67 -> $76.16 |
1/23/2026 | New 52-Week High Details: Stock reached a new 52-week high, reflecting strong business momentum carried over from the robust performance reported in late 2025. | +1.37% (Modest gain) $80.89 -> $82.00 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The stock's volatility regime is moderate. However, the Bearish sentiment from mounting competitive risks, a 'Contested' moat, and only 'Medium' forward visibility forces a Conservative sizing to manage potential downside.
Diversification Alternatives
PEP
SECTOROwns the distribution network that is MNST's primary threat. Highly diversified across snacks/beverages, providing stability and a lower valuation multiple, mitigating risk.
KDP
SECTOROffers a strong, owned distribution network and a more diversified beverage portfolio (coffee, soft drinks), reducing single-category risk compared to MNST at a lower valuation.
Monster is a brand-driven growth company leveraging a world-class distribution network to capture share in the expanding global energy drink market, with its valuation primarily dependent on sustaining premium international growth and defending margins against rising competition.
Filter all news through the lens of international market share gains and domestic margin defense.
International sales growth >+20% YoY, particularly in EMEA and APAC regions; market share gains against Red Bull outside the U.S.; successful launch and ramp of new product innovations like Monster Energy Ultra® family extensions; gross margin expansion above 55%.
Sustained market share gains by Celsius in the U.S. market pressuring Monster's pricing power; significant deceleration in EMEA growth; negative regulatory action in key markets regarding caffeine content or marketing to young consumers; deterioration in the Coca-Cola distribution partnership.
Quarterly fluctuations in aluminum costs — largely managed through pricing and hedging; minor new flavor launches from competitors — brand loyalty is the primary moat; short-term changes in the struggling Alcohol Brands segment — it is too small to impact the core thesis.
Repricing Catalyst
Sustained high-teens percentage growth in the core Monster Energy Drinks segment, driven by international expansion which now accounts for a record 43% of sales (Q3 2025 Earnings Call). The key driver is successfully leveraging the Coca-Cola distribution system to close the market share gap with Red Bull in EMEA and Asian markets, which could add several billion in incremental revenue over the next 3-5 years.
Core Monster & Reign Energy Drinks
$7.9B TTM (92% of Total) · 55.7% MarginWhat It Is
Monster Energy®, Monster Energy Ultra®, Reign Total Body Fuel®, Bang Energy®, Java Monster®, Juice Monster®
Who Pays & How
Global distributors, primarily Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (13% of FY2023 sales) and Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (10% of FY2023 sales), pay for Monster products because of high consumer demand and brand velocity, which drives retail traffic and profitable sales per square foot. The lock-in is Monster's powerful brand equity and its exclusive energy partnership with the vast Coca-Cola global distribution system.
Competition
Acquired & Partner Energy Brands
$0.5B TTM (6% of Total) · 55.7% MarginWhat It Is
NOS®, Full Throttle®, Burn®, Mother®, Relentless®, Predator®, Fury®. These are brands acquired from The Coca-Cola Company.
Who Pays & How
The same distributors and retailers as the core Monster brand. These brands often serve value-oriented or regional consumer segments, filling out the portfolio.
Competition
Alcohol & Other Brands
$0.2B TTM (2% of Total) · 55.7% MarginWhat It Is
Craft beers and hard seltzers from the CANarchy acquisition (Jai Alai® IPA, Dale's Pale Ale®) and The Beast Unleashed flavored malt beverage.
Who Pays & How
Beer and alcohol distributors in the United States. This is a diversification effort to enter a new beverage category.
Competition
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