Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.34 | Market Cap: $38.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.34Market Cap: $38.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KDP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) stock moved by -1.7% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Ongoing Investor Anxiety Regarding the JDE Peet's Acquisition and Planned Company Split.
Keurig Dr Pepper announced on August 25, 2025, its plan to acquire JDE Peet's for approximately $18.4 billion and subsequently separate into two independent companies. This announcement, made just before the requested period, caused an immediate and significant drop in KDP's stock, with shares falling 8.2% to 12%. Investor concerns over the high cost of the deal, the substantial premium paid for JDE Peet's, and the complexity of unwinding the 2018 merger and splitting into two entities likely continued to fuel negative sentiment and put downward pressure on the stock within the specified period.
2. Concerns Over Increased Debt and Negative Credit Watch.
The significant all-cash acquisition of JDE Peet's for €15.7 billion (approximately $18.4 billion) raised substantial concerns about Keurig Dr Pepper's financial leverage and increased debt levels. S&P Global placed KDP on a negative credit watch, indicating a potential downgrade to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating, which further dampened investor confidence and contributed to the stock's decline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KDP Return | 13% | 17% | -1% | -4% | -1% | -10% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 11% | 14% | 6% | 1% | -7% | -7% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KDP Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 55% | 55% | 53% | 47% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KDP Max Drawdown | -32% | -4% | -6% | -20% | -13% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -9% | -11% | -13% | -10% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, MDLZ, KHC, STZ. See KDP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KDP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KO, PEP, MDLZ, KHC, STZ
In The Past
Keurig Dr Pepper's stock fell -30.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -30.4% loss requires a 43.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KDP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 12312018 | KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.3% | 15.4% | -1.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 12312018 | KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.3% | 15.4% | -1.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Keurig Dr Pepper
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Refreshment Beverages | 8,821 | ||||
| US Coffee | 4,071 | ||||
| International | 1,922 | ||||
| Beverage Concentrates | 1,486 | 1,325 | 1,414 | ||
| Coffee Systems | 4,716 | 4,433 | 4,233 | ||
| Latin America Beverages | 599 | 497 | 528 | ||
| Packaged Beverages | 5,882 | 5,363 | 4,945 | ||
| Total | 14,814 | 12,683 | 11,618 | 11,120 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Refreshment Beverages | 2,483 | ||||
| US Coffee | 1,158 | ||||
| International | 475 | ||||
| Unallocated corporate costs | -924 | -755 | -647 | -638 | |
| Beverage Concentrates | 1,047 | 932 | 955 | ||
| Coffee Systems | 1,446 | 1,268 | 1,219 | ||
| Latin America Beverages | 133 | 105 | 85 | ||
| Packaged Beverages | 1,023 | 822 | 757 | ||
| Total | 3,192 | 2,894 | 2,480 | 2,378 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
