Metals Royalty (TMCR)
Market Price (10/4/2026): $3.41 | Market Cap: $195.4 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Metals Royalty (TMCR)
Market Price (10/4/2026): $3.41Market Cap: $195.4 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Key risksTMCR key risks include [1] uncertain regulatory permitting for its sole asset, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Key risksTMCR key risks include [1] uncertain regulatory permitting for its sole asset, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Metals Royalty (TMCR) stock has lost about 55% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deteriorating Earnings Forecasts and Analyst Downgrades.
Metals Royalty experienced negative revisions to its earnings outlook during the period. Diamond Equity lowered its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecast to a loss of $0.09 per share from an earlier estimate of a $0.05 loss, and projected a full-year fiscal 2026 loss of $0.46 per share. This coincided with rating downgrades from some firms; for instance, Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from "hold" to "sell" on August 15, 2026, and Weiss Ratings issued a "sell (e-)" rating on July 2, 2026.
2. Prolonged Path to Profitability and Lack of Royalty Revenue.
Despite completing its initial public offering (IPO) on April 8, 2026, and its business model focusing on royalty income, Metals Royalty reported zero revenue for the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of June 30, 2026. The company reported a quarterly loss of $0.12 per share for fiscal Q2 2026, released on August 10, 2026. Furthermore, an SEC filing on September 24, 2026, explicitly stated "No royalty revenue yet". Analysts anticipate the company to remain unprofitable through fiscal 2027, projecting a breakeven point and positive profits of $250,000 only by fiscal 2028, requiring an ambitious 77% year-on-year growth to achieve this target.
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Metals Royalty (TMCR) stock has lost about 55% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deteriorating Earnings Forecasts and Analyst Downgrades.
Metals Royalty experienced negative revisions to its earnings outlook during the period. Diamond Equity lowered its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecast to a loss of $0.09 per share from an earlier estimate of a $0.05 loss, and projected a full-year fiscal 2026 loss of $0.46 per share. This coincided with rating downgrades from some firms; for instance, Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from "hold" to "sell" on August 15, 2026, and Weiss Ratings issued a "sell (e-)" rating on July 2, 2026.
2. Prolonged Path to Profitability and Lack of Royalty Revenue.
Despite completing its initial public offering (IPO) on April 8, 2026, and its business model focusing on royalty income, Metals Royalty reported zero revenue for the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of June 30, 2026. The company reported a quarterly loss of $0.12 per share for fiscal Q2 2026, released on August 10, 2026. Furthermore, an SEC filing on September 24, 2026, explicitly stated "No royalty revenue yet". Analysts anticipate the company to remain unprofitable through fiscal 2027, projecting a breakeven point and positive profits of $250,000 only by fiscal 2028, requiring an ambitious 77% year-on-year growth to achieve this target.
3. Persistent Risks and Uncertainties Surrounding the NORI Royalty.
A significant asset for Metals Royalty, the 2.0% gross overriding royalty on the NORI Property (a deep-sea polymetallic nodule project), remains a source of investor concern. The project is still in a development stage, lacks commercial production permits, and faces an uncertain legal framework, offering no guarantee of achieving profitable operations. This ongoing risk associated with a core asset was highlighted in an August 22, 2026, article titled "The Metals Royalty Company: Mesabi Is Real, But NORI Still Carries Too Much Risk," suggesting that despite progress on other fronts, the NORI project continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
4. High Stock Volatility and "Penny Stock" Classification.
The stock exhibited significant price volatility, with an average weekly movement of 11% over the three months leading up to September 14, 2026. This high volatility is considered a minor risk for investors. Additionally, by late September 2026, market commentators began classifying TMCR as a "penny stock" due to its low share price, a designation often associated with higher speculative risk and susceptibility to sharp, short-lived price swings.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -53.1% change in TMCR stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.14 | 3.35 | -53.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 43 | 43 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMCR | -53.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 20.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | -4.5% | 24.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMCR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | -2.5% | 10.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMCR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 9.8% | 10.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMCR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 84.9% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 30.3% | 10.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMCR Return | - | - | - | - | - | -72% | -72% |
| Peers Return | 12% | -5% | -6% | 9% | 120% | -1% | 138% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMCR Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 48% | 37% | 52% | 73% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMCR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -41% | -36% | -23% | -20% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FNV, RGLD, TFPM, OR, GROY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TMCR has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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TMCR has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 171 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 459 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 701 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Metals Royalty (TMCR)
Metals Royalty (TMCR) is a public company engaged in acquiring and managing royalties, streams, and other interests related to critical metals and minerals. The company operates on a royalty-based business model, which allows it to provide capital to developers of critical mineral projects. In return, Metals Royalty receives a percentage of future revenues, participating in the long-term cash flows and commodity upside of large-scale assets while reducing exposure to the operational, development, or environmental risks typically associated with resource production.
The company's main offering is its portfolio of royalty interests. Its core and currently only asset is a 2.0% gross overriding royalty on the NORI Property. This property, located in the north-east Pacific Ocean, is a polymetallic nodule project under development by The Metals Company. Although the NORI Property is in its development stage and not yet permitted for commercial production, Metals Royalty's interest positions it to benefit from the future economic success of this strategically significant critical metals asset once operations begin.
Metals Royalty primarily serves the critical metals and minerals value chain by offering alternative financing solutions to operators. Its strategic focus is on supporting mineral security and independence in North America. The company aims to accelerate domestic industry growth in sectors such as energy, defense, and re-industrialization by facilitating capital development opportunities. It is positioned to capitalize on the increasing global demand for critical metals and the corresponding need for funding among companies developing these essential resources.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Metals Royalty is like Franco-Nevada for deep-sea critical metals, but as a single-asset startup.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Critical Metals and Mineral Royalty Investment: The company acquires and manages royalty interests in critical metals and mineral projects, providing capital to operators in exchange for a percentage of future revenues.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Metals Royalty (TMCR) operates a royalty-based business model. In this model, the company acquires royalty interests in mineral projects and receives a percentage of future revenues or production from those projects. Therefore, its "customers" are the operating companies that hold the rights to the underlying assets and are responsible for paying the royalties.
Based on the provided description, Metals Royalty's core and only asset is the NORI Royalty, a 2.0% gross overriding royalty on the NORI Property. This property is being developed by The Metals Company. Consequently, The Metals Company is the primary entity from which Metals Royalty expects to receive royalty revenue once the project reaches commercial production.
The Metals Company is a public company, trading under the symbol TMC.
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Brian Paes-Braga, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Mr. Paes-Braga is an entrepreneur and investor, serving as a Managing Partner at SAF Group, one of Canada's largest alternative asset managers. He was the Founder and CEO of Lithium X Energy, which raised over C$50 million and was acquired in an all-cash deal for C$265 million. Since 2015, he has led company-building transactions across various sectors, involving over C$5 billion in debt and equity financings into growth-oriented businesses.
Donald Sewell, President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Sewell is a former energy investment banker and public company finance executive. He has also served as President and Executive Director at NG Energy.
Gerard Barron, Director
Mr. Barron is the Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of The Metals Company (TMC). An experienced entrepreneur, he has built multiple global companies in battery manufacturing, media, technology, and future-focused resource development.
Brian T. O'Neill, Director
Mr. O'Neill is the Chief Operating Officer of SAF Growth & Merchant Banking at SAF Group, a structured credit and merchant banking firm focused on building, financing, and advising high-growth companies. Previously, he spent nearly a decade practicing law as a corporate and tax attorney at McCarthy Tétrault LLP.
Hamed Shahbazi, Director
Mr. Shahbazi is the Founder, CEO, and Chairman of WELL Health. He previously founded TIO Networks, which he later sold to PayPal.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Metals Royalty's business are:
-
Regulatory and Permitting Uncertainty for Commercial Production of the NORI Property: The NORI Property, which is Metals Royalty's core and only asset, is in the development stage and not currently permitted for commercial production. The legal regime applicable to such permitting is uncertain, and there is no assurance that the NORI Property will ever achieve commercial production or, if it does, that operations will achieve profitable and continued production levels.
-
Dependence on The Metals Company: Metals Royalty's entire business model is dependent on The Metals Company successfully developing and operating the NORI Property. Any operational, financial, or regulatory setbacks faced by The Metals Company would directly impact Metals Royalty's ability to generate revenue.
-
Lack of Revenue and Speculative Nature of Business: Metals Royalty has not received any royalty revenue from the NORI Royalty to date. The company's future prospects and ability to generate cash flow are entirely dependent on the successful, and uncertain, development and commercial production of the NORI Property.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Metals Royalty (TMCR) over the next 2-3 years:
- Achievement of Commercial Production at the NORI Property: The primary driver of revenue growth for Metals Royalty is the NORI Property achieving commercial production. The company's core asset is a 2.0% gross overriding royalty on the NORI Property, and it has not yet received any royalty revenue to date as the property is in the development stage.
- Successful Permitting and Regulatory Approvals for NORI: Progress in obtaining the necessary permits and navigating the legal regime for commercial production is critical. The Metals Company, through its affiliates, has submitted exploration and commercial recovery permit applications to the United Nations International Seabed Authority (UNISA) and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
- Increased Production and Sales Volume of Polymetallic Nodules: Once commercial production commences, the volume of polymetallic nodules extracted and sold from the NORI Property will directly determine the royalty revenue generated for Metals Royalty.
- Favorable Commodity Price Movements for Critical Metals and Minerals: Metals Royalty's business model is designed to allow participation in the commodity upside of strategically significant critical metals and mineral assets. As such, an increase in the market prices of the critical metals contained within the polymetallic nodules would enhance royalty revenues.
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Share Issuance
- Issued approximately 13.9 million Common Shares to The Metals Company in 2023 as part of the acquisition of the NORI Royalty.
Outbound Investments
- Acquired the NORI Royalty, a 2.0% gross overriding royalty on the NORI Property, in 2023.
- The acquisition of the NORI Royalty involved a payment of $5,000,000 in cash to The Metals Company.
Peer Outperformance in Diversified Metals & Mining
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel | 8 | 18.6% | 46.3% | 178.5% | STLD 318% · HCC 287% · AMR 222% |
| Gold | 3 | 16.9% | 241.8% | 157.9% | CDE 182% · RGLD 158% · NEM 146% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 25.2% | 126.2% | 58.3% | CENX 157% · KALU 58% · AA -11% |
| Construction Materials | 5 | -23.5% | 22.1% | 46.8% | USLM 373% · CRH 84% · VMC 47% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 3 | 25.6% | 16.6% | 45.6% | HWKN 263% · KOP 46% · DOW -38% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 5 | -8.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | GEF 45% · ATR 6% · SLGN 0% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 22 | 12.5% | 15.7% | -6.1% | NEU 195% · ESI 75% · SXT 51% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 8.2% | 4.7% | -8.2% | PKG 91% · CCK 12% · SON -2% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 4 | -4.8% | -26.3% | -31.8% | CBT 64% · ASH -17% · CC -47% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 5 | -33.9% | -32.4% | -58.6% | CF 108% · MOS -35% · SMG -59% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.3 |
| Rev LTM | 426 |
| Op Inc LTM | 290 |
| FCF LTM | -21 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 144 |
| CFO LTM | 349 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 275 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 73.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 39.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 62.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 90.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 52.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 63.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 60.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 76.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 78.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.83 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 0.04 | -0.95 | 0.19 |
| Up Beta | 0.28 | 0.72 | 0.02 | 1.07 | 0.91 | -0.17 |
| Down Beta | -6.26 | 4.64 | 2.10 | 2.48 | -0.02 | -1.94 |
| Up Capture | -50% | 44% | 128% | -1% | -0% | -0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 19 | 25 | 47 | 47 | 47 |
| Down Capture | 585% | 401% | 380% | 275% | 142% | 82% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 39 | 73 | 73 | 73 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMCR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMCR | -76.2% | 90.1% | -2.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.8% | 17.9% | 0.37 | 10.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 13.0% | 0.85 | 21.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 7.7% | 29.6% | 0.25 | 15.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.7% | 20.8% | 1.64 | -6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 13.6% | -0.16 | -0.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.0% | 44.5% | -0.58 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMCR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMCR | -24.9% | 90.1% | -2.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.6% | 19.1% | 0.18 | 10.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 21.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.9% | 0.80 | 15.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.40 | -6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 18.9% | -0.08 | -0.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.2% | 52.3% | 0.43 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMCR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMCR | -13.3% | 90.1% | -2.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.5% | 20.7% | 0.41 | 10.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 21.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 15.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | -6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.17 | -0.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.9% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Diversified Metals & Mining Resources |
| Mining Technology |
| International Mining |
| Northern Miner |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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