Gold Royalty (GROY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.96 | Market Cap: $676.8 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Gold Royalty (GROY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.96Market Cap: $676.8 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 46x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 325x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 91x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Investment in Precious Metals. Themes include Gold as an Inflation Hedge / Store of Value, Diversification & Alternative Assets, and Mining Productivity & Returns. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 218% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 92% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% | ||
| Key risksGROY key risks include [1] its dependence on the performance of third-party operators over whom it has limited control, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Investment in Precious Metals. Themes include Gold as an Inflation Hedge / Store of Value, Diversification & Alternative Assets, and Mining Productivity & Returns. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 46x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 325x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 91x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 218% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 92% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% |
| Key risksGROY key risks include [1] its dependence on the performance of third-party operators over whom it has limited control, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GROY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, for Gold Royalty (GROY) saw a dynamic stock performance driven by several key factors. While there isn't a single 9.9% movement highlighted across the entire period, various news and financial updates influenced the stock's fluctuations, including an 8.99% surge on August 29, 2025, and a 4.57% decline after Q3 earnings on November 6, 2025, followed by a slight recovery.
1. Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results and Analyst Upgrades: Gold Royalty Corp. experienced an 8.99% surge on August 29, 2025, following impressive Q2 financial results. The company reported a zero-cent EPS, outperforming expectations, and $3.8 million in revenue. This performance led to Scotiabank increasing its price target to $3.30, and H.C. Wainwright boosting its target to $6.25 while maintaining a strong buy rating.
2. Record Q3 2025 Revenue Despite EPS Miss: Gold Royalty reported preliminary third-quarter 2025 results with record total revenue of $4.6 million (revenue $4.1 million), a 76% increase compared to Q3 2024. However, the company's Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) registered at $0, missing the anticipated loss of $0.0016, which led to a 4.57% decline in the stock post-earnings, though it saw a 2.06% premarket recovery.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GROY Return | � | � | -52% | -36% | -18% | 236% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | -6% | 8% | 117% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GROY Win Rate | � | 67% | 25% | 25% | 50% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 50% | 40% | 52% | 77% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GROY Max Drawdown | � | � | -56% | -47% | -20% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -19% | -12% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FNV, RGLD, OR, TFPM, MTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GROY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 445.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Gold Royalty's stock fell -81.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/24/2021. A -81.7% loss requires a 445.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Gold Royalty Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GROY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gold Royalty
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 294 |
| Op Inc LTM | 182 |
| FCF LTM | 4 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4 |
| CFO LTM | 249 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 188 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 40.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 73.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 14.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 61.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 51.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 76.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 74.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 29.4 |
| P/EBIT | 36.7 |
| P/E | 28.5 |
| P/CFO | 34.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 99.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 91.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 24.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 88.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 14.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3272023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 12272022 | 20-F 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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