Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -33%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 319x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 89x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Investment in Precious Metals. Themes include Gold as an Inflation Hedge / Store of Value, Diversification & Alternative Assets, and Mining Productivity & Returns.
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 152%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 189%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 92%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Investment in Precious Metals. Themes include Gold as an Inflation Hedge / Store of Value, Diversification & Alternative Assets, and Mining Productivity & Returns.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -33%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 319x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 89x
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 152%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 189%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 92%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

GROY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting the reasons for Gold Royalty (GROY) stock movement for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025: 1. Strong Financial Performance and Positive Cash Flow. Gold Royalty reported record revenue and adjusted EBITDA in its Q2 2025 earnings, announced on August 6, 2025. The company achieved positive free cash flow for both the quarter and the half-year, along with record revenues and cash margins, reflecting growth within its portfolio of assets. This strong cash generation underscored the effectiveness of its royalty and streaming model and outperformed expectations, contributing to a stock surge of 10.37% on August 30, 2025.

2. Key Asset Milestones and Increased Production Outlook. Gold Royalty maintained its 2025 production guidance of 5,700-7,000 Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs), with a significant portion of this production anticipated in the latter half of the year as operations like Côté, Vareš, and Borborema continue to ramp up. Notably, its Borborema asset achieved commercial production on September 23, 2025, operating above 80% of design capacity with consistently high gold recoveries.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GROY Return---52%-36%-18%212%-21%
Peers Return38%-9%-6%-3%-0%90%113%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GROY Win Rate-67%25%25%50%90% 
Peers Win Rate37%35%38%40%37%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GROY Max Drawdown---56%-47%-20%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-22%-26%-19%-17%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGROYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-81.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven445.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM


In The Past

Gold Royalty's stock fell -81.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/24/2021. A -81.7% loss requires a 445.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Gold Royalty (GROY)

Better Bets than Gold Royalty (GROY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GROY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-1.5%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-22.4%-22.4%-22.9%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.6%11.6%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
6.1%6.1%-7.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-1.5%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-22.4%-22.4%-22.9%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.6%11.6%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
6.1%6.1%-7.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Gold Royalty

Financials

GROYBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameGold Roy.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Mkt Price3.7836.42197.058.401.3489.7222.41
Mkt Cap0.662.538.02.6-98.438.0
Rev LTM1413,8241,5461,352-21,5031,546
Op Inc LTM-05,3511,069426-9,3591,069
FCF LTM5--856226-6,122115
FCF 3Y Avg-25--16124-2,63654
CFO LTM7-1,310455-9,224883
CFO 3Y Avg1-1,056339-5,616698

Growth & Margins

GROYBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameGold Roy.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Rev Chg LTM86.3%16.9%41.1%68.1%-26.6%41.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg80.9%5.9%7.7%26.7%-23.9%23.9%
Rev Chg Q101.4%16.4%76.9%38.3%-20.0%38.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM16.9%3.9%15.9%5.4%-4.5%5.4%
Op Mgn LTM-2.1%38.7%69.1%31.5%-43.5%38.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-129.4%29.4%64.1%22.0%-23.9%23.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM11.9%3.2%0.8%2.9%-4.5%3.2%
CFO/Rev LTM50.2%-84.7%33.7%-42.9%46.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-37.3%-81.3%35.4%-32.6%34.0%
FCF/Rev LTM31.8%--55.4%16.7%-28.5%22.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-425.4%-4.6%11.7%-13.8%8.2%

Valuation

GROYBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameGold Roy.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Mkt Cap0.662.538.02.6-98.438.0
P/S44.74.524.61.9-4.64.6
P/EBIT318.611.032.45.5-9.411.0
P/E-100.922.641.311.2-13.713.7
P/CFO89.0-29.05.7-10.719.8
Total Yield-1.0%5.3%2.8%8.9%-8.4%5.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.3%0.0%-1.1%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-11.8%-0.4%6.2%-3.6%2.0%
D/E0.10.00.00.1-0.10.1
Net D/E0.10.0-0.0-0.1--0.0-0.0

Returns

GROYBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameGold Roy.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
1M Rtn3.8%9.4%-5.7%-8.4%-57.9%-0.9%-3.3%
3M Rtn23.1%55.1%11.3%15.7%-54.3%31.5%19.4%
6M Rtn152.0%105.1%24.4%54.4%-81.5%81.5%
12M Rtn188.5%121.8%75.7%85.0%-122.0%121.8%
3Y Rtn32.2%142.2%44.4%136.6%-112.1%112.1%
1M Excs Rtn-2.6%4.0%-6.9%-13.9%-54.5%-5.1%-6.0%
3M Excs Rtn20.3%47.5%6.8%10.6%-57.3%25.4%15.5%
6M Excs Rtn138.1%91.3%10.6%40.5%-67.6%67.6%
12M Excs Rtn169.8%101.8%56.6%74.4%-103.9%101.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-33.5%75.2%-24.2%87.3%-48.4%48.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,913,198
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520257.4%
Average Daily Volume4,499,573
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.31
Basic Shares Quantity170,913,113
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110620256-K 9/30/2025
630202580620256-K 6/30/2025
331202550820256-K 3/31/2025
12312024320202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024110520246-K 9/30/2024
630202481320246-K 6/30/2024
331202451420246-K 3/31/2024
12312023328202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111420236-K 9/30/2023
630202381020236-K 6/30/2023
331202351120236-K 3/31/2023
12312022327202320-F 12/31/2022
93020221227202220-F 9/30/2022
630202281520226-K 6/30/2022
331202251620226-K 3/31/2022
1231202121420226-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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