Gold Royalty (GROY)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $3.82 | Market Cap: $652.9 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Gold Royalty (GROY)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $3.82Market Cap: $652.9 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 319x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 89x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Investment in Precious Metals. Themes include Gold as an Inflation Hedge / Store of Value, Diversification & Alternative Assets, and Mining Productivity & Returns. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 152%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 189% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 92% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Investment in Precious Metals. Themes include Gold as an Inflation Hedge / Store of Value, Diversification & Alternative Assets, and Mining Productivity & Returns. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 319x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 89x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 152%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 189% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 92% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
GROY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting the reasons for Gold Royalty (GROY) stock movement for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025:
1. Strong Financial Performance and Positive Cash Flow. Gold Royalty reported record revenue and adjusted EBITDA in its Q2 2025 earnings, announced on August 6, 2025. The company achieved positive free cash flow for both the quarter and the half-year, along with record revenues and cash margins, reflecting growth within its portfolio of assets. This strong cash generation underscored the effectiveness of its royalty and streaming model and outperformed expectations, contributing to a stock surge of 10.37% on August 30, 2025.
2. Key Asset Milestones and Increased Production Outlook. Gold Royalty maintained its 2025 production guidance of 5,700-7,000 Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs), with a significant portion of this production anticipated in the latter half of the year as operations like Côté, Vareš, and Borborema continue to ramp up. Notably, its Borborema asset achieved commercial production on September 23, 2025, operating above 80% of design capacity with consistently high gold recoveries.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GROY Return | - | - | -52% | -36% | -18% | 212% | -21% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -9% | -6% | -3% | -0% | 90% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GROY Win Rate | - | 67% | 25% | 25% | 50% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 35% | 38% | 40% | 37% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GROY Max Drawdown | - | - | -56% | -47% | -20% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -22% | -26% | -19% | -17% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GROY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 445.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM
In The Past
Gold Royalty's stock fell -81.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/24/2021. A -81.7% loss requires a 445.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Gold Royalty Stock Down 7.7% In A Week, How Confident Are You? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GROY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.4% | -22.4% | -22.9% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.1% | 6.1% | -7.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.4% | -22.4% | -22.9% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.1% | 6.1% | -7.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gold Royalty
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 38.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,546 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,069 |
| FCF LTM | 115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 54 |
| CFO LTM | 883 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 698 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 41.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 38.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 38.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 46.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 38.0 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 11.0 |
| P/E | 13.7 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 81.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 121.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 112.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 67.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 101.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 48.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3272023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 12272022 | 20-F 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
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