Smithfield Foods (SFD)
Market Price (9/30/2026): $18.95 | Market Cap: $7.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Smithfield Foods (SFD)
Market Price (9/30/2026): $18.95Market Cap: $7.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 11% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Vegan Products, Sustainable Packaging, and Ethical Sourcing. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.3% Key risksSFD key risks include [1] geopolitical tensions and potential trade disruptions due to its majority ownership by a China-based parent and [2] governance concerns related to its 'controlled company' status. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Vegan Products, Sustainable Packaging, and Ethical Sourcing. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.3% |
| Key risksSFD key risks include [1] geopolitical tensions and potential trade disruptions due to its majority ownership by a China-based parent and [2] governance concerns related to its 'controlled company' status. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Smithfield Foods (SFD) stock has lost about 25% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Smithfield Foods significantly lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook. During its second fiscal quarter 2026 (ended June 28, 2026) earnings release on August 11, 2026, the company revised its total adjusted operating profit guidance for fiscal year 2026 (which ends December 31) downwards to a range of $1.225 billion to $1.375 billion, from prior higher expectations. Additionally, the sales growth forecast was reduced to roughly flat compared to the previous low-single-digit growth projection. This revised outlook, despite a record adjusted operating profit for the second fiscal quarter, indicated a more cautious view on future profitability to investors.
2. The Fresh Pork segment faces substantial anticipated losses. Smithfield Foods expects its Fresh Pork segment to report an adjusted operating loss in the range of $70 million to $90 million for fiscal Q3 2026 (ending September 28, 2026). This projected downturn is primarily driven by "industry spread compression" and a further decline in the USDA pork cutout value.
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Smithfield Foods (SFD) stock has lost about 25% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Smithfield Foods significantly lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook. During its second fiscal quarter 2026 (ended June 28, 2026) earnings release on August 11, 2026, the company revised its total adjusted operating profit guidance for fiscal year 2026 (which ends December 31) downwards to a range of $1.225 billion to $1.375 billion, from prior higher expectations. Additionally, the sales growth forecast was reduced to roughly flat compared to the previous low-single-digit growth projection. This revised outlook, despite a record adjusted operating profit for the second fiscal quarter, indicated a more cautious view on future profitability to investors.
2. The Fresh Pork segment faces substantial anticipated losses. Smithfield Foods expects its Fresh Pork segment to report an adjusted operating loss in the range of $70 million to $90 million for fiscal Q3 2026 (ending September 28, 2026). This projected downturn is primarily driven by "industry spread compression" and a further decline in the USDA pork cutout value.
3. Lower hog prices are impacting the Hog Production segment. The company also revised its expectations for the Hog Production segment, forecasting an adjusted operating profit in the range of $25 million to $45 million for fiscal Q3 2026. This updated outlook reflects the impact of declining market hog prices on the segment's profitability.
4. Broader macroeconomic headwinds and cautious consumer spending contribute to pressure. Smithfield Foods' management cited a "cautious consumer and volatile commodity environment" as overarching factors influencing its performance. These macroeconomic pressures, including potential volatility in fuel, freight, and packaging costs, further dampened the company's financial outlook for the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.4% change in SFD stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.48 | 19.01 | -25.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,560 | 15,474 | -0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.9 | 7.1 | -28.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 393 | 394 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SFD | -25.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.3% | -18.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | -0.6% | 46.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.7% change in SFD stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.97 | 19.01 | -20.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,256 | 15,474 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.7% | 6.8% | 20.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.9 | 7.1 | -35.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 393 | 394 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SFD | -20.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | -4.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | -7.9% | 40.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.5% change in SFD stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.22 | 19.01 | -21.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,393 | 15,474 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.5% | 6.8% | 95.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.9 | 7.1 | -62.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 393 | 394 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SFD | -21.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.8% | -3.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 4.1% | 39.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SFD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 76.1% | 18.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 22.0% | 43.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SFD Return | - | - | - | - | 18% | -11% | 5% |
| Peers Return | 23% | -7% | -10% | 9% | 6% | -14% | 3% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SFD Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 58% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 48% | 52% | 42% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SFD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -26% | -27% | -20% | -28% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TSN, HRL, PPC, SEB, CAG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SFD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Smithfield Foods's stock fell -13.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.4% gain to breakeven.
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In The Past
Smithfield Foods's stock fell -13.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Smithfield Foods (SFD)
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Smithfield Foods sells its products primarily to other companies. Its major customers include:
- Walmart Inc. (Symbol: WMT)
- The Kroger Co. (Symbol: KR)
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (Symbol: COST)
- Sysco Corporation (Symbol: SYY)
- US Foods Holding Corp. (Symbol: USFD)
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Shane Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer
Shane Smith has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Smithfield Foods since July 2021. He joined the company in 2003 and has held a wide range of leadership roles across Smithfield's operations, including finance, renewables, and hog production. Smith previously served as Smithfield's Chief Strategy Officer, where he led the company's organic and mergers and acquisitions growth initiatives. His prior roles also include Executive Vice President of Smithfield's European operations and Chief Financial Officer of Smithfield Europe. He also served as an executive director and a member of the board of directors at WH Group, Smithfield's parent company, until Smithfield's IPO in January 2025.
Mark Hall, Chief Financial Officer
Mark Hall assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer in January 2023. He joined Smithfield Foods in 2014 as Vice President of Finance for the John Morrell Food Group. Hall has over 25 years of industry experience and previously served as Smithfield's Executive Vice President of Finance, overseeing various financial functions. Before joining Smithfield, he held finance positions with The Quaker Oats Company and McCain Foods USA Inc. His career began in public accounting at Arthur Andersen LLP and included work in equity research for Legg Mason Wood Walker Inc.
Keller Watts, Chief Business Officer
Keller Watts has served as Smithfield's Chief Business Officer since January 2023. With over 30 years at the company, he is responsible for executing the company's business strategy, leading its fresh and packaged business management, raw material procurement, and supply planning teams. Watts has held diverse roles within Smithfield, including sales, marketing, revenue management, supply chain, strategic sourcing, and research and development.
Doug Sutton, Ph.D., Chief Manufacturing Officer
Doug Sutton, Ph.D., has been Smithfield's Chief Manufacturing Officer since January 2023. He joined the company in 2001 and has held leadership positions such as Executive Vice President, Manufacturing, and Vice President, Research and Development. Dr. Sutton holds a Bachelor of Animal Science and a Master of Animal Science from Oklahoma State University, along with a Ph.D. in Animal Science from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Kraig Westerbeek, President, Hog Production
Kraig Westerbeek was named President, Hog Production, in February 2024, and is responsible for all of Smithfield's U.S. swine production operations. He joined the company in 1993 and has served in various leadership capacities, including Vice President, Smithfield Renewables and hog production environmental compliance. Westerbeek was also instrumental in the formation of Smithfield Renewables in 2017 and previously held the role of chief development officer for Smithfield's joint venture, Monarch.
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Key Risks to Smithfield Foods (SFD)
- Animal Disease Outbreaks and Food Safety Concerns: Smithfield Foods faces significant risks from foreign animal diseases, such as African Swine Fever, which can lead to devastating impacts on hog supply, market closures, and operational disruptions. Additionally, the business is vulnerable to food safety issues and product recalls resulting from bacterial contamination (e.g., Salmonella, Listeria, E. coli) or other hazards, which can cause substantial financial losses, harm brand reputation, and erode consumer trust.
- Commodity Price Volatility and Intense Market Competition: The profitability of Smithfield Foods, particularly its Hog Production segment, is significantly influenced by the cyclical nature of commodity markets and fluctuations in hog and feed prices. The highly competitive meatpacking industry, with major players vying for market share, necessitates continuous innovation and efficiency for Smithfield to maintain its profitability and market position.
- Regulatory and Trade Policy Shifts, and Geopolitical Risks: Changes in international trade policies, the imposition of tariffs, and ongoing scrutiny related to Smithfield's ownership by Chinese investors pose considerable risks to its export markets and overall business operations. Broader geopolitical events can also disrupt global supply chains and lead to increased input costs, further impacting the company's financial performance.
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Smithfield Foods (SFD) operates in the pork production and processed meats markets, offering a wide range of products including fresh pork, bacon, sausage, hot dogs, and deli meats.
Addressable Markets for Smithfield Foods' Main Products and Services:
- Global Pork Meat Market: The global pork meat market was estimated at USD 293.18 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 424.44 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2024 to 2030. Another estimate placed the global pork meat market size at USD 302.28 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 441.65 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 3.86% from 2026 to 2035. The fresh pork segment alone was valued at USD 383.9 billion globally in 2024.
- U.S. Pork Meat Market: The North American pork meat market was valued at USD 51.81 billion in 2023. The U.S. pork meat market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.5% from 2024 to 2030.
- Global Processed Meat Market: The global processed meat market was valued at USD 740.61 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,260.84 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 6.09% from 2025 to 2034.
- U.S. Processed Meat Market: In the U.S., the processed meat market was valued at USD 128.28 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 235.60 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.25% from 2025 to 2034.
- Global Bacon Market: The global bacon market was estimated at US$75.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$97.2 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.2%. Another report estimated the global bacon market size at USD 75.16 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 95.92 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 2.75%.
- U.S. Bacon Market: The bacon market in the U.S. was estimated at US$19.9 billion in 2024. The North America bacon market holds the largest share globally, accounting for approximately 38% of the total market.
- Global Sausage Market: The global sausage market was valued at USD 99933.35 million (approximately USD 99.93 billion) in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 149127.59 million (approximately USD 149.13 billion) by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2025 to 2033.
- North America Hot Dog and Sausages Market: This market was valued at USD 39.85 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 51.39 billion by the end of 2030, with a CAGR of 3.7%.
- U.S. Sausage Market: Annual sales of sausage in the United States are estimated at $12 billion. The breakfast sausage market globally was estimated at USD 6.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 13.6 billion in 2034.
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Share Issuance
- Smithfield Foods returned to the public market through an initial public offering (IPO) on January 28, 2025, trading under the ticker symbol "SFD" on the Nasdaq Global Select Market.
- The company offered 26,086,958 shares of common stock at $20.00 per share, raising a total of $522 million.
- Of the shares offered, 13,043,479 were sold by Smithfield Foods, and an equal number were sold by an existing shareholder.
Peer Outperformance in Packaged Foods & Meats
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail | 12 | 4.5% | 45.9% | 63.1% | NGVC 222% · VLGEA 152% · WMT 145% |
| Food Distributors | 8 | 4.1% | 34.6% | 55.7% | CHEF 242% · USFD 170% · ANDE 133% |
| Food Retail | 6 | -6.4% | 46.5% | 30.7% | CASY 227% · SFM 179% · KR 68% |
| Tobacco | 6 | -43.5% | 6.3% | 23.8% | PM 155% · MO 122% · TPB 31% |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages | 12 | -7.8% | -15.4% | 2.2% | COKE 407% · CCHGY 119% · BRFH 107% |
| Brewers | 3 | -17.8% | -36.9% | -8.4% | BUD 42% · TAP -8% · SAM -68% |
| Household Products | 19 | 4.8% | -7.0% | -16.6% | ACU 111% · IPAR 74% · CL 29% |
| Agricultural Products & Services | 11 | -12.4% | -5.9% | -18.5% | ADM 52% · BG 52% · INGR 25% |
| Personal Care Products | 4 | -0.6% | -7.4% | -22.6% | ELF 250% · PG 21% · COTY -66% |
| Packaged Foods & Meats ← | 47 | -28.5% | -35.0% | -41.1% | MAMA 434% · LWAY 278% · SENEA 276% |
| Distillers & Vintners | 5 | -47.2% | -60.8% | -78.4% | STZ -41% · BF-B -56% · MGPI -78% |
| Drug Retail | 3 | -44.2% | -86.3% | -94.1% | HITI -55% · PETS -94% · SCNX -99% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.1 |
| Rev LTM | 13,810 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,102 |
| FCF LTM | 794 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 833 |
| CFO LTM | 1,188 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,331 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -15.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packaged Meats | 8,757 | 8,319 | 9,262 | 8,515 |
| Fresh Pork | 8,344 | 7,873 | 9,190 | 9,145 |
| Hog Production | 3,393 | 3,002 | 4,456 | 3,866 |
| Other | 528 | 471 | 524 | 247 |
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | ||
| Unallocated | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Intersegment | -5,492 | -5,524 | -7,234 | -6,765 |
| Total | 15,530 | 14,141 | 16,198 | 15,008 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packaged Meats | 1,094 | 1,168 | 1,047 | 879 |
| Fresh Pork | 214 | 266 | 31 | -9 |
| Hog Production | 176 | -144 | -134 | 52 |
| Other | 45 | 35 | 61 | 61 |
| Intersegment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unallocated | -109 | -55 | 111 | -462 |
| Corporate | -128 | -153 | ||
| Total | 1,292 | 1,117 | 1,116 | 521 |
| $ Mil | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 1,423 | 1,380 | 1,032 | 1,289 |
| Hog Production | 2,299 | 2,145 | 2,074 | 2,556 |
| International | 1,703 | 1,651 | 1,885 | 1,115 |
| Pork | 2,291 | 2,246 | 2,620 | 2,579 |
| Other | 169 | |||
| Total | 7,716 | 7,422 | 7,612 | 7,709 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $19.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $22.54 | $23.95 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -15.7% | -20.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.0% | 25.4% |
| Downside Capture | 94.05 | 3.45 |
| Upside Capture | -42.75 | -15.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -11.1% | -3.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.07 | -0.45 | -0.53 | -0.14 | -0.10 | 0.05 |
| Up Beta | -0.21 | -1.02 | -0.98 | 0.22 | 0.13 | -0.19 |
| Down Beta | -0.81 | -0.61 | -0.59 | -0.70 | -0.14 | -0.02 |
| Up Capture | -104% | -47% | -58% | -13% | -13% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 125 | 205 |
| Down Capture | 230% | 27% | 2% | 2% | -19% | 9% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 24 | 36 | 65 | 125 | 191 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SFD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFD | -14.6% | 25.3% | -0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.2% | 14.4% | 0.25 | 40.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 13.0% | 0.90 | -3.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 10.5% | 29.6% | 0.34 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.5% | 20.8% | 1.52 | -11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 13.6% | -0.02 | 32.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.6% | 44.7% | -0.50 | -3.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SFD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFD | 0.9% | 28.1% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.8% | 13.7% | 0.20 | 43.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 18.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.2% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.6% | 0.42 | -2.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 38.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 52.4% | 0.46 | 9.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SFD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFD | 0.4% | 28.1% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.3% | 14.9% | 0.35 | 43.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 18.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | -2.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 38.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.5% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 9.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -2.3% | -6.2% | -14.9% |
| 4/28/2026 | -6.4% | -7.4% | -5.9% |
| 10/28/2025 | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 8/12/2025 | -2.6% | 2.4% | -3.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 8.8% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # Negative | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 2.4% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -6.8% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.4% | -7.4% | -14.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -2.3% | -6.2% | -14.9% |
| 4/28/2026 | -6.4% | -7.4% | -5.9% |
| 10/28/2025 | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 8/12/2025 | -2.6% | 2.4% | -3.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 8.8% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # Negative | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 2.4% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -6.8% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.4% | -7.4% | -14.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 01/29/2025 | 424B4 |
| 09/30/2016 | 10/26/2016 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2016 | 08/16/2016 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 04/28/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 03/29/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 10/28/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 08/12/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 04/29/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 03/25/2015 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 01/29/2025 | 424B4 |
| 09/30/2016 | 10/26/2016 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2016 | 08/16/2016 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 04/28/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 03/29/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 10/28/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 08/12/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 04/29/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 03/25/2015 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2014 | 11/07/2014 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2014 | 08/11/2014 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2014 | 05/14/2014 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2013 | 03/20/2014 | 10-KT |
| 07/31/2013 | 09/06/2013 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2013 | 06/18/2013 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2013 | 03/08/2013 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2012 | 12/06/2012 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2012 | 09/06/2012 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2012 | 06/18/2012 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2012 | 03/09/2012 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2011 | 12/09/2011 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/28/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Packaged Meats segment adjusted operating profit | Reported | 1.07 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.15 Bil | -3.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.15 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Fresh Pork segment adjusted operating profit | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | 240.00 Mil | -8.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 230.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Hog Production segment adjusted operating profit | Reported | 75.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | -42.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 175.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Company adjusted operating profit | Reported | 1.23 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 1.38 Bil | -7.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.40 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Annual dividend rate | Reported | 1.25 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.25 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Effective tax rate | Reported | 22.5% | 23.5% | 24.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 23.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 350.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Packaged Meats Adjusted Operating Profit | Reported | 1.10 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.20 Bil | 6.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.08 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Fresh Pork Adjusted Operating Profit | Reported | 200.00 Mil | 230.00 Mil | 260.00 Mil | 31.4% | Raised | Guidance: 175.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Hog Production Adjusted Operating Profit | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 27.3% | Raised | Guidance: 137.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total Company Adjusted Operating Profit | Reported | 1.32 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 1.48 Bil | 9.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.27 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Annual Dividend Rate | Reported | 1.25 | ||||||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 22.5% | 23.5% | 24.5% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 24.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 350.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | 6.7% | Raised | Guidance: 375.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Packaged Meats segment adjusted operating profit | Reported | 1.06 Bil | 1.08 Bil | 1.11 Bil | -1.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.10 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Fresh Pork segment adjusted operating profit | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | -12.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 200.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Hog Production segment adjusted operating profit | Reported | 125.00 Mil | 137.50 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 175.0% | Raised | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Total Company adjusted operating profit | Reported | 1.23 Bil | 1.27 Bil | 1.32 Bil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | 24.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 24.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 350.00 Mil | 375.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | -16.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 450.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France, Steven | President, Packaged Meats | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 26.82 | 82,825 | 2,221,366 | 3,900,406 | Form |
| 2 | Starling, Raymond A | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 26.77 | 3,960 | 106,029 | 320,095 | Form | |
| 3 | Hall, Mark L | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 26.36 | 78,579 | 2,071,342 | 3,551,351 | Form |
| 4 | France, Steven | President, Packaged Meats | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 2,500 | 58,125 | 1,627,500 | Form |
| 5 | Hall, Mark L | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 2,000 | 46,500 | 1,674,000 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France, Steven | President, Packaged Meats | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 26.82 | 82,825 | 2,221,366 | 3,900,406 | Form |
| 2 | Starling, Raymond A | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 26.77 | 3,960 | 106,029 | 320,095 | Form | |
| 3 | Hall, Mark L | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 26.36 | 78,579 | 2,071,342 | 3,551,351 | Form |
| 4 | France, Steven | President, Packaged Meats | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 2,500 | 58,125 | 1,627,500 | Form |
| 5 | Hall, Mark L | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 2,000 | 46,500 | 1,674,000 | Form |
| 6 | Wan, Long | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 1,800,000 | 41,850,000 | 117,645,000 | Form | |
| 7 | Watts, Keller D | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 3,833 | 89,117 | 1,740,425 | Form |
| 8 | He, Hank Shenghua | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 10,000 | 232,500 | 2,022,750 | Form | |
| 9 | Sutton, Doug | Chief Manufacturing Officer | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 3,920 | 91,140 | 1,602,390 | Form |
| 10 | Owens, Donovan | President, U.S. Fresh Pork | Direct | Buy | 9092025 | 23.25 | 12,000 | 279,000 | 1,790,250 | Form |
| 11 | Wh, Group Ltd | See footnote | Sell | 9082025 | 23.25 | 22,461,452 | 522,228,759 | 7,952,338,604 | Form | |
| 12 | Watts, Keller D | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Buy | 6132025 | 23.62 | 4,291 | 101,353 | 1,677,587 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 30, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Packaged Foods & Meats Resources |
| USDA Data |
| Food Processing |
| Meat+Poultry |
| Just Food |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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