Tearsheet

Smithfield Foods (SFD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.04 | Market Cap: $8.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Smithfield Foods (SFD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.04
Market Cap: $8.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 5.2%
 
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Vegan Products, Sustainable Packaging, and Ethical Sourcing.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 5.2%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Vegan Products, Sustainable Packaging, and Ethical Sourcing.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SFD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Smithfield Foods (SFD) experienced an approximate stock decline of 13.5% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. This downturn occurred despite the company reporting strong third-quarter 2025 financial results. Key factors contributing to this stock movement include: 1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Adjustments

Several financial institutions adjusted their ratings and price targets for Smithfield Foods during this period. Notably, Zacks Research downgraded the stock from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on October 8, 2025. Simultaneously, Bank of America lowered its price target for SFD from $30.00 to $28.00, while maintaining a "buy" rating. These revisions by key analysts likely contributed to negative investor sentiment. 2. Market Skepticism Regarding Profit Durability and Valuation Concerns

Despite Smithfield Foods reporting record third-quarter adjusted operating profit and exceeding analyst expectations, market observers expressed skepticism about the sustainability of its profit growth. Analyses in November 2025 indicated that SFD shares had "slipped" and "declined more sharply over the past 3 months," suggesting "fading confidence or shifting risk perceptions." The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, trading significantly below sector peers and estimated fair value, may reflect investor uncertainty about future prospects. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SFD Return------ 
Peers Return3%10%10%-15%2%-20%-13%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SFD Win Rate-----56% 
Peers Win Rate32%35%48%30%45%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SFD Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-10%-4%-5%-25%-12%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: K, GIS, FLO, WEST, MEHA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SFD has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-17.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven682 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-24.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven404 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-33.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven605 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -17.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -17.5% loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.

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About Smithfield Foods (SFD)

Better Bets than Smithfield Foods (SFD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1How Low Can Smithfield Foods Stock Really Go?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SFD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Smithfield Foods

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SFDKGISFLOWESTMEHAMedian
NameSmithfie.KellanovaGeneral .Flowers .Westrock.Function. 
Mkt Price21.7483.1446.2011.074.150.4016.41
Mkt Cap8.528.825.02.30.4-8.5
Rev LTM15,25612,64319,1565,1351,07878,889
Op Inc LTM1,1451,8553,141320-34-0733
FCF LTM4766502,096325-1510401
FCF 3Y Avg6358952,300257-192-635
CFO LTM8041,3052,691451-530628
CFO 3Y Avg1,0071,5123,003384-43-1,007

Growth & Margins

SFDKGISFLOWESTMEHAMedian
NameSmithfie.KellanovaGeneral .Flowers .Westrock.Function. 
Rev Chg LTM7.5%-1.4%-3.3%0.3%28.9%-0.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.6%1.5%0.1%3.0%10.0%-1.6%
Rev Chg Q12.4%0.3%-6.8%3.0%60.7%8.2%5.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%0.1%-1.7%0.7%14.2%2.0%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM7.5%14.7%16.4%6.2%-3.2%-3.5%6.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.2%12.1%16.9%5.7%-2.1%-6.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%0.8%8.7%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM5.3%10.3%14.0%8.8%-4.9%0.0%7.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.0%12.2%15.2%7.5%-4.6%-7.5%
FCF/Rev LTM3.1%5.1%10.9%6.3%-14.0%0.0%4.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.4%7.2%11.7%5.0%-21.1%-5.0%

Valuation

SFDKGISFLOWESTMEHAMedian
NameSmithfie.KellanovaGeneral .Flowers .Westrock.Function. 
Mkt Cap8.528.825.02.30.4-8.5
P/S0.62.31.50.50.4-0.6
P/EBIT7.415.18.78.5-11.2-8.5
P/E10.721.39.614.2-5.0-10.7
P/CFO11.521.810.46.1-8.8-10.4
Total Yield12.8%7.5%15.2%14.6%-19.9%-12.8%
Dividend Yield3.4%2.8%4.7%7.5%0.0%-3.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.6%6.6%7.0%-32.4%-5.1%
D/E0.30.20.50.81.3-0.5
Net D/E0.20.20.50.81.2-0.5

Returns

SFDKGISFLOWESTMEHAMedian
NameSmithfie.KellanovaGeneral .Flowers .Westrock.Function. 
1M Rtn0.2%0.8%-0.5%-4.6%-6.7%--0.5%
3M Rtn-8.6%5.9%-6.0%-21.3%-22.1%--8.6%
6M Rtn-4.6%3.0%-13.3%-29.7%-38.1%--13.3%
12M Rtn-6.1%-27.1%-47.4%-46.6%--36.8%
3Y Rtn-32.1%-40.4%-57.2%-69.3%--48.8%
1M Excs Rtn0.2%0.8%-0.5%-4.6%-6.7%--0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-14.6%-0.0%-11.1%-26.6%-28.8%--14.6%
6M Excs Rtn-19.4%-11.8%-28.0%-44.4%-52.8%--28.0%
12M Excs Rtn--7.6%-40.6%-61.2%-61.9%--50.9%
3Y Excs Rtn--37.6%-110.6%-129.4%-139.4%--120.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,376,302
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.0%
Average Daily Volume1,042,043
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.28
Basic Shares Quantity393,112,711
Short % of Basic Shares0.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025812202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024325202510-K 12/29/2024
123120231292025424B4 12/31/2023
93020161026201610-Q 10/2/2016
6302016816201610-Q 7/3/2016
3312016428201610-Q 4/3/2016
12312015329201610-K 1/3/2016
93020151028201510-Q 9/27/2015
6302015812201510-Q 6/28/2015
3312015429201510-Q 3/29/2015
12312014325201510-K 12/28/2014
93020141107201410-Q 9/28/2014
6302014811201410-Q 6/29/2014
3312014514201410-Q 3/30/2014

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Watts Keller D.Chief Business Officer6132025Buy23.624,291101,3531,677,587Form
1WH Group Ltd/ADR 2212025Sell20.002,506,93650,138,7207,290,376,340Form
2WH Group Ltd/ADR 1302025Sell20.0013,043,479260,869,5807,340,515,060Form

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data