Hormel Foods (HRL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.51 | Market Cap: $13.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Hormel Foods (HRL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.51Market Cap: $13.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Nutritional Supplements, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Nutritional Supplements, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HRL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Hormel Foods (HRL) experienced a -7.4% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors: 1. Disappointing Q3 Fiscal 2025 Results and Outlook. Hormel Foods reported diluted earnings per share of $0.33 (adjusted $0.35) for its third fiscal quarter ending July 27, 2025, falling short of analyst expectations of $0.41. The company also projected that profit recovery would be delayed until the next fiscal year, with immediate pressures continuing through the fourth quarter. 2. Escalating Commodity Input Costs. A significant factor contributing to the lower-than-expected earnings in Q3 and the anticipated struggles in Q4 was a sharp increase in commodity input costs. These elevated costs were noted by management as persisting into the fourth quarter, severely impacting profit margins. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HRL Return | 5% | 7% | -5% | -27% | 1% | -23% | -39% |
| Peers Return | -0% | 23% | 7% | -16% | 8% | 6% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HRL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 55% | 43% | 47% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HRL Max Drawdown | -11% | -11% | -8% | -31% | -10% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -7% | -12% | -25% | -10% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HSY, K, ADM, TSN, MKC. See HRL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 291 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HSY, K, ADM, TSN, MKC
In The Past
Hormel Foods's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HRL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hormel Foods
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 7/27/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/27/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2272025 | 10-Q 1/26/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-K 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2292024 | 10-Q 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-K 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3022023 | 10-Q 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-K 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3082022 | 10-Q 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12102021 | 10-K 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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