Hormel Foods (HRL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $23.98 | Market Cap: $13.2 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Hormel Foods (HRL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $23.98Market Cap: $13.2 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | Key risksHRL key risks include [1] losing market share to lower-cost private-label products as consumer preferences shift and [2] significant brand and financial damage from food contamination leading to product recalls. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Nutritional Supplements, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Nutritional Supplements, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9% |
| Key risksHRL key risks include [1] losing market share to lower-cost private-label products as consumer preferences shift and [2] significant brand and financial damage from food contamination leading to product recalls. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HRL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Hormel Foods lowered its full-year 2025 earnings and operating income expectations in late August, despite reporting higher sales for the third quarter. This "guidance cut" signaled anticipated profitability pressures to investors.
2. The company faced significant and persistent input cost inflation throughout fiscal 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter. This included substantial increases in commodity costs for pork (pork bellies up approximately 25%, pork cutout up about 10%, and pork trim up approximately 20%) and continued high beef costs, which heavily impacted gross margins across various segments.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HRL Return | 5% | 7% | -5% | -27% | 1% | -21% | -38% |
| Peers Return | 2% | 11% | 14% | -16% | 0% | -19% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HRL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 50% | 63% | 43% | 50% | 37% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HRL Max Drawdown | -11% | -11% | -8% | -31% | -10% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -9% | -11% | -27% | -6% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSN, KHC, CAG, GIS, CPB. See HRL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 291 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HSY, K, ADM, TSN, MKC
In The Past
Hormel Foods's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HRL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hormel Foods
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.4 |
| Rev LTM | 15,441 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,395 |
| FCF LTM | 1,159 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 974 |
| CFO LTM | 1,849 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,843 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.4 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 13.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 9.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -39.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -109.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/4/2025 | 0.7% | -1.9% | |
| 8/28/2025 | 0.9% | 1.7% | -2.3% |
| 5/29/2025 | 1.0% | 1.1% | -0.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | 0.9% | 2.2% | 7.0% |
| 12/4/2024 | 2.7% | 3.6% | -4.1% |
| 9/4/2024 | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 5/30/2024 | 0.6% | 0.3% | -1.2% |
| 2/29/2024 | -5.5% | -3.8% | -1.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 1.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -5.0% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 7.4% | 13.6% | 16.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -9.3% | -10.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12052025 | 10-K 10/26/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 7/27/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/27/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2272025 | 10-Q 1/26/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-K 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2292024 | 10-Q 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-K 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3022023 | 10-Q 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-K 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3082022 | 10-Q 1/30/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |