Tearsheet

Hormel Foods (HRL)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $23.98 | Market Cap: $13.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Hormel Foods (HRL)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $23.98
Market Cap: $13.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  Key risks
HRL key risks include [1] losing market share to lower-cost private-label products as consumer preferences shift and [2] significant brand and financial damage from food contamination leading to product recalls.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Nutritional Supplements, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Nutritional Supplements, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9%
5 Key risks
HRL key risks include [1] losing market share to lower-cost private-label products as consumer preferences shift and [2] significant brand and financial damage from food contamination leading to product recalls.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HRL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Hormel Foods lowered its full-year 2025 earnings and operating income expectations in late August, despite reporting higher sales for the third quarter. This "guidance cut" signaled anticipated profitability pressures to investors.

2. The company faced significant and persistent input cost inflation throughout fiscal 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter. This included substantial increases in commodity costs for pork (pork bellies up approximately 25%, pork cutout up about 10%, and pork trim up approximately 20%) and continued high beef costs, which heavily impacted gross margins across various segments.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HRL Return5%7%-5%-27%1%-21%-38%
Peers Return2%11%14%-16%0%-19%-11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HRL Win Rate58%42%58%42%42%33% 
Peers Win Rate53%50%63%43%50%37% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HRL Max Drawdown-11%-11%-8%-31%-10%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-9%-11%-27%-6%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSN, KHC, CAG, GIS, CPB. See HRL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHRLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-17.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven34 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven291 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-41.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven563 days1,480 days

Compare to HSY, K, ADM, TSN, MKC


In The Past

Hormel Foods's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Hormel Foods (HRL)

Better Bets than Hormel Foods (HRL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HRL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hormel Foods

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HRLTSNKHCCAGGISCPBMedian
NameHormel F.Tyson Fo.Kraft He.Conagra .General .Campbell. 
Mkt Price23.9958.5024.7517.9248.6128.7126.73
Mkt Cap13.619.329.38.626.19.416.4
Rev LTM12,10654,44125,16411,45018,77710,15815,441
Op Inc LTM8951,4414,8951,3482,9121,2941,395
FCF LTM5341,1773,6311,1411,7836871,159
FCF 3Y Avg7748163,0471,1332,300698974
CFO LTM8452,1554,4741,5442,3601,1301,849
CFO 3Y Avg1,0532,1664,0661,5203,0051,1521,843

Growth & Margins

HRLTSNKHCCAGGISCPBMedian
NameHormel F.Tyson Fo.Kraft He.Conagra .General .Campbell. 
Rev Chg LTM1.6%2.1%-3.7%-4.1%-5.7%2.7%-1.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.9%0.7%-0.8%-0.9%-0.9%4.5%-0.8%
Rev Chg Q1.5%2.2%-2.3%-5.8%-7.2%-3.4%-2.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%0.5%-0.6%-1.4%-2.0%-0.9%-0.8%
Op Mgn LTM7.4%2.6%19.5%11.8%15.5%12.7%12.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.2%2.0%19.6%15.1%17.1%12.9%14.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.7%-0.9%-0.7%-0.9%-0.5%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM7.0%4.0%17.8%13.5%12.6%11.1%11.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.8%4.0%15.6%12.8%15.3%11.8%12.3%
FCF/Rev LTM4.4%2.2%14.4%10.0%9.5%6.8%8.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.4%1.5%11.7%9.6%11.7%7.1%8.3%

Valuation

HRLTSNKHCCAGGISCPBMedian
NameHormel F.Tyson Fo.Kraft He.Conagra .General .Campbell. 
Mkt Cap13.619.329.38.626.19.416.4
P/S1.10.41.20.81.40.91.0
P/EBIT---5.55.79.0-5.7
P/E28.540.7-7.110.310.316.313.3
P/CFO16.18.96.95.711.08.38.6
Total Yield8.2%4.3%-8.0%17.3%14.8%9.8%9.0%
Dividend Yield4.6%1.8%6.2%7.6%5.1%3.7%4.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--8.3%9.5%6.5%-8.3%
D/E--0.70.90.5-0.7
Net D/E--0.60.90.5-0.6

Returns

HRLTSNKHCCAGGISCPBMedian
NameHormel F.Tyson Fo.Kraft He.Conagra .General .Campbell. 
1M Rtn7.7%11.1%2.7%4.7%3.5%-6.6%4.1%
3M Rtn-2.4%9.1%-2.3%-3.2%0.1%-11.7%-2.3%
6M Rtn-18.7%9.6%-0.7%-13.4%-5.9%-7.6%-6.8%
12M Rtn-22.2%2.0%-16.1%-31.3%-22.9%-30.3%-22.6%
3Y Rtn-41.7%5.0%-28.0%-45.0%-37.6%-44.0%-39.6%
1M Excs Rtn6.9%10.4%1.9%3.9%2.8%-7.3%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-4.0%7.9%-4.9%-3.8%-2.6%-14.8%-3.9%
6M Excs Rtn-31.1%-2.8%-13.0%-25.8%-18.3%-20.0%-19.2%
12M Excs Rtn-35.2%-10.9%-28.3%-43.2%-34.9%-41.3%-35.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-112.0%-67.8%-97.1%-114.1%-105.9%-112.3%-109.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Perishable8,5498,5128,7376,2715,329
Shelf-stable3,3723,5983,7212,6612,093
Miscellaneous   353301
Poultry   2,1001,886
Total11,92112,11012,45911,3869,608


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,083,292
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.2%
Average Daily Volume4,710,140
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.63
Basic Shares Quantity550,512,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/4/20250.7%-1.9% 
8/28/20250.9%1.7%-2.3%
5/29/20251.0%1.1%-0.4%
2/27/20250.9%2.2%7.0%
12/4/20242.7%3.6%-4.1%
9/4/20243.5%1.1%0.3%
5/30/20240.6%0.3%-1.2%
2/29/2024-5.5%-3.8%-1.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive13119
# Negative111315
Median Positive1.1%3.6%5.2%
Median Negative-4.6%-5.0%-4.1%
Max Positive7.4%13.6%16.5%
Max Negative-6.6%-9.3%-10.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251205202510-K 10/26/2025
7312025828202510-Q 7/27/2025
4302025529202510-Q 4/27/2025
1312025227202510-Q 1/26/2025
103120241205202410-K 10/27/2024
7312024904202410-Q 7/28/2024
4302024530202410-Q 4/28/2024
1312024229202410-Q 1/28/2024
103120231206202310-K 10/29/2023
7312023831202310-Q 7/30/2023
4302023601202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023302202310-Q 1/29/2023
103120221206202210-K 10/30/2022
7312022901202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022602202210-Q 5/1/2022
1312022308202210-Q 1/30/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Murano Elsa A3312025Sell30.404,500136,8002,902,835Form
1LYKKEN STEVEN JGROUP VICE PRESIDENT12102024Buy32.474,904159,246230,538Form

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data