Mosaic (MOS)


Market Price (8/13/2026): $22.65 | Market Cap: $7.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Mosaic (MOS)


Market Price (8/13/2026): $22.65
Market Cap: $7.2 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 3.9%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Nutrient Management, and Crop Nutrient Optimization.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 81%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 485x

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0%

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.7%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.3%

Key risks
MOS key risks include [1] concentrated exposure to volatile geopolitical, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 3.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Nutrient Management, and Crop Nutrient Optimization.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 81%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 485x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0%
8 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.7%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.3%
10 Key risks
MOS key risks include [1] concentrated exposure to volatile geopolitical, Show more.

MOS in ETFs

Weight = MOS's share of each fund

VOO0.01%
IVV0.01%
VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
RSP0.22%
VYM0.03%
VB0.08%
+24 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 8/4/2026

Mosaic (MOS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Operational Headwinds and Net Losses in Fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026.

The Mosaic Company reported a net loss of $258 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.05 for fiscal Q1 2026, significantly missing analysts' expectations of $0.21. These results were heavily impacted by $442 million in charges related to the idling of Araxá and Patrocínio operations in Brazil. Subsequently, for fiscal Q2 2026, Mosaic reported another net loss of $273 million and adjusted EPS of $0.13, falling short of analyst estimates of $0.1453. This continued underperformance was primarily attributed to challenging business conditions.

2. High Sulfur Costs and Phosphate Production Curtailments.

A core reason for the pressure on Mosaic's profitability was the increased cost and limited availability of sulfur, a critical raw material for phosphate fertilizer production. This led Mosaic to withdraw its full-year phosphate production guidance for 2026 and initiate partial curtailments of its phosphate operations starting in May 2026. Sulfur availability and affordability continued to be a significant challenge into fiscal Q2 2026, impacting production volumes and margins.

Show more
Updated on 8/4/2026

Mosaic (MOS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Operational Headwinds and Net Losses in Fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026.

The Mosaic Company reported a net loss of $258 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.05 for fiscal Q1 2026, significantly missing analysts' expectations of $0.21. These results were heavily impacted by $442 million in charges related to the idling of Araxá and Patrocínio operations in Brazil. Subsequently, for fiscal Q2 2026, Mosaic reported another net loss of $273 million and adjusted EPS of $0.13, falling short of analyst estimates of $0.1453. This continued underperformance was primarily attributed to challenging business conditions.

2. High Sulfur Costs and Phosphate Production Curtailments.

A core reason for the pressure on Mosaic's profitability was the increased cost and limited availability of sulfur, a critical raw material for phosphate fertilizer production. This led Mosaic to withdraw its full-year phosphate production guidance for 2026 and initiate partial curtailments of its phosphate operations starting in May 2026. Sulfur availability and affordability continued to be a significant challenge into fiscal Q2 2026, impacting production volumes and margins.

3. Resilient Potash Market and Long-Term Demand Outlook.

Despite the headwinds in phosphate, the potash market demonstrated resilience. Potash prices increased more than 5% in fiscal Q1 2026 and were nearly 17% higher year-over-year. Analysts maintained a cautiously optimistic view on Mosaic, with a mean price target around $27.45 as of early August 2026, anticipating a recovery in phosphate margins. This optimism was further supported by a new US-China trade deal, wherein China committed to buying at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural products from 2026-2028, and a US Department of Agriculture commitment of $500 million to expand domestic fertilizer production, signaling positive long-term demand for fertilizers.

4. Strategic Cost Management and Capital Expenditure Reductions.

In response to the volatile market and operational challenges, Mosaic implemented measures to control costs and strengthen its financial position. The company reduced its anticipated capital expenditures for 2026 from an initial $1.25 billion to $1.2 billion and focused on curtailing uneconomic production and carefully managing working capital. These actions aimed to preserve cash and maintain flexibility to ramp up production when market conditions improve.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.9% change in MOS stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020268122026Change
Stock Price ($)23.0422.60-1.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,05212,2481.6%
P/S Multiple0.60.6-3.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)318318-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution-1.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MOS-1.9% 
Market (SPY)7.5%31.2%
Sector (XLB)2.2%51.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -16.3% change in MOS stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120268122026Change
Stock Price ($)27.0022.60-16.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,89512,2483.0%
P/S Multiple0.70.6-18.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)317318-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-16.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MOS-16.3% 
Market (SPY)11.9%23.6%
Sector (XLB)7.2%50.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -35.0% change in MOS stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120258122026Change
Stock Price ($)34.7922.60-35.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,06412,24810.7%
P/S Multiple1.00.6-41.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)317318-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-35.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MOS-35.0% 
Market (SPY)23.3%19.9%
Sector (XLB)21.6%47.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -39.3% change in MOS stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120238122026Change
Stock Price ($)37.2522.60-39.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)18,80712,248-34.9%
P/S Multiple0.70.6-11.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3353185.5%
Cumulative Contribution-39.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MOS-39.3% 
Market (SPY)74.7%30.1%
Sector (XLB)29.5%49.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MOS Return72%13%-16%-29%1%-2%14%
Peers Return49%6%-22%-3%2%18%45%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MOS Win Rate75%58%50%25%50%62% 
Peers Win Rate60%55%40%52%50%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MOS Max Drawdown-23%-44%-44%-33%-37%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-38%-42%-22%-36%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTR, CF, IPI, FMC, CTVA. See MOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/12/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMOSS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-15.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven8 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-19.3%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven24.0%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven603 days24 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-61.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven161.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven145 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-17.5%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven21.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven807 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-48.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven95.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven2074 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-52.0%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven108.2%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven2078 days15 days

Compare to NTR, CF, IPI, FMC, CTVA

In The Past

Mosaic's stock fell -15.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMOSS&P 500
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-61.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven161.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven145 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-48.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven95.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven2074 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-52.0%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven108.2%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven2078 days15 days
2013 Taper Tantrum
  % Loss-32.2%-0.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.5%0.2%
  Time to Breakeven3128 days1 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-35.3%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven54.5%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven3808 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-25.4%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.0%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven47 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-76.2%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven319.5%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven4893 days1085 days

Compare to NTR, CF, IPI, FMC, CTVA

In The Past

Mosaic's stock fell -15.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mosaic (MOS)

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a global leader in the production and marketing of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Essentially, Mosaic supplies essential mineral-based fertilizers that are critical for supporting global agriculture and improving crop yields. The company achieves this through its extensive mining operations and processing facilities, distributing its products across North America and international markets.

Mosaic's main product offerings include various forms of phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), alongside diverse potash products. Beyond these primary soil amendments, Mosaic also produces phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, sold under brands like Biofos and Nexfos, and a specialized double sulfate of potash magnesia product known as K-Mag. The company further diversifies its portfolio by providing nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and related ancillary services, including the trading of phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products.

Mosaic serves a broad and diverse customer base within the agricultural industry. Its products are sold to large wholesale distributors, retail chains, agricultural cooperatives, and independent retailers. Additionally, Mosaic directly supplies farmers and national accounts, ensuring that its crucial crop nutrient solutions reach various segments of the agricultural market globally.

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  • John Deere for crop nutrients.
  • The Monsanto of soil fertilizers.
  • The ExxonMobil of essential crop minerals.

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  • Phosphate Crop Nutrients: Concentrated fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and ammoniated phosphate products.
  • Potash Crop Nutrients: Fertilizers derived from potash, including the double sulfate of potash magnesia product known as K-Mag.
  • Animal Feed Ingredients: Phosphate-based ingredients (e.g., Biofos, Nexfos) and nitrogen-based ingredients.
  • Industrial Potash: Potash sold for applications such as de-icing and as a water softener regenerant.
  • Nitrogen Products: Nitrogen-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, which the company purchases and sells.

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The Mosaic Company (MOS) primarily sells its products to other companies. Based on the provided background, its major customers fall into the following categories:

  • Wholesale distributors
  • Retail chains
  • Cooperatives
  • Independent retailers
  • National accounts

The company also sells directly to farmers.

The provided background information does not list the names of specific customer companies, nor their public symbols.

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Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer

Bruce Bodine was named President of The Mosaic Company and became a member of the board of directors in August 2023, assuming the Chief Executive Officer role in January 2024. He began his career with Mosaic in 1999, as part of a predecessor company. Throughout his tenure, he has held various executive positions including Senior Vice President – North America, Senior Vice President – Phosphates, Senior Vice President – Potash, and Vice President – Supply Chain. Bodine led the integration of Mosaic's North America Businesses and currently oversees enterprise-wide operations. He serves on the boards of Canpotex, The International Fertilizer Association (IFA), The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), the National Manufacturer's Association (NAM), and the Miski Mayo mining company, a joint venture where Mosaic is the operating partner.

Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Luciano Siani Pires became Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Mosaic Company on January 1, 2025. He was previously a member of Mosaic's Board of Directors from 2018 to 2022. Prior to joining Mosaic, Mr. Siani Pires held several senior leadership roles at Vale S.A., a global mining company, including Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development from 2021 to 2023 and Chief Financial Officer from 2012 to 2021. He also served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of VLI S.A. from 2017 to 2023. His experience also includes roles as a senior business development advisor for Accenture's Natural Resources Group and as a consultant at McKinsey & Company. From 2007 to 2008, he was chief of staff and executive secretary to the president at Brazil's National Development Bank, where he had previously headed the Capital Markets and Export Finance departments.

Karen Swager, Executive Vice President, Operations

Karen Swager serves as Executive Vice President, Operations at The Mosaic Company. She was previously the Senior Vice President—Supply Chain.

Yijun "Jenny" Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial

Yijun "Jenny" Wang was named Executive Vice President, Commercial, in January 2024. In this role, she leads enterprise-wide commercial organizations, the Mosaic Biosciences initiative, and Global Strategic Marketing, with responsibility for global sales, marketing, product management, new product research and development, and market and strategic analysis. Ms. Wang joined Mosaic in 2011, and prior to her current role, she was SVP-Global Strategic Marketing, Head of China and India, effective January 1, 2022. Before joining Mosaic, she spent 16 years at Syngenta, holding various leadership roles in Sales, Marketing, Strategy, Business Development, Global Product Management, and as Country Managing Director in China, Vietnam, and Switzerland. She also serves on the Board of Directors at Canpotex.

Phil Bauer, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary

Phil Bauer was promoted to Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary in January 2023. He joined Mosaic in 2007 and has managed legal support for business development, potash operations, offshore finance, commercial transactions, and corporate governance. Prior to his promotion, he was the Vice President—Growth and Development. Before joining Mosaic, Mr. Bauer was a partner at an international law firm, focusing his practice on mergers and acquisitions, public and private securities offerings, public company compliance matters, and general business advising.

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The Mosaic Company (MOS) faces several key risks inherent to its operations in the global agricultural input industry.

Key Risks to The Mosaic Company (MOS)

  1. Market Volatility and Commodity Price Fluctuations: The Mosaic Company's financial performance is highly susceptible to the unpredictable and volatile prices of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, as well as the costs of key raw materials such as sulfur and ammonia. The cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry, coupled with fluctuating agricultural market conditions, including crop prices and farming economics, directly impacts the demand for its products and, consequently, its revenues and profitability.
  2. Operational Risks and Production Disruptions: The company faces significant operational risks stemming from its complex supply chains and large-scale production facilities. These risks include potential equipment failures, labor issues, and disruptions caused by adverse weather events, such as hurricanes, which have previously led to production losses. Challenges in implementing new technologies or optimizing production processes can also impede the achievement of operational goals and impact production volumes and costs.
  3. Geopolitical Tensions, Trade Policy, and Regional Market Instability: Global geopolitical instability and trade wars pose considerable risks to Mosaic's business by potentially disrupting supply chains, imposing trade restrictions or tariffs, and hindering expansion strategies in key international markets. Additionally, specific regional economic challenges, such as ongoing credit issues within the Brazilian agricultural market, directly impact the sales volume and cash flow of Mosaic's Fertilizantes segment.

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The addressable markets for Mosaic's main products are substantial globally and within North America.

Phosphates

  • Globally, the phosphate market size was valued at approximately USD 180.60 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to about USD 300.13 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% during the forecast period.
  • In North America, the phosphate market reached a value of USD 18.63 billion in 2025.

Potash

  • The global potash market size accounted for USD 66.11 billion in 2025. It is predicted to increase to approximately USD 106.09 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 4.84% from 2026 to 2035.
  • In North America, the potash market generated a revenue of USD 9.44 billion in 2024. This market is expected to reach a projected revenue of USD 14.23 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2025 to 2032.
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and favorable market dynamics.

  1. Strong Global Demand and Favorable Pricing for Phosphate and Potash: Mosaic anticipates continued demand growth for its core phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company projects a 1.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for phosphate and a 2% CAGR for potash through 2030, driven by the overall recovery and increase in global fertilizer use. Phosphate prices saw an increase for the third consecutive year in 2025, and potash prices also climbed, indicating a supportive pricing environment. Emerging U.S. demand for phosphate, as farmers prepare for spring planting, further contributes to this positive outlook.
  2. Significant Volume Growth in Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil Market Expansion): Expansion within the high-growth Brazilian agricultural market is a crucial revenue driver. Mosaic completed a $350 million expansion of its Coronel terminal in 2024, significantly increasing its blending and storage capacity by over 40%. Through a strategic partnership with distributor Maurello & Maurello, Mosaic is deepening its penetration into the South American market. The company expects Mosaic Fertilizantes' sales volumes to grow from 9.2 million tonnes in 2024 to 13-14 million tonnes by 2027, capitalizing on the expanding market.
  3. Expansion of Performance Products, Including Mosaic Biosciences: Mosaic is strategically focusing on higher-margin performance products, such as its MicroEssentials premium fertilizer line and the growing Mosaic Biosciences portfolio. The MicroEssentials line achieved double-digit annual growth in 2024, with sales reaching approximately 3.5 million metric tons. Mosaic Biosciences demonstrated substantial growth, doubling net sales to $68 million in 2025, with a goal to double net sales again in 2026, supported by 8 to 10 new product launches. This segment is expected to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2025, with long-term aspirations of generating $250-500 million in adjusted EBITDA.
  4. Increased Production Volumes and Improved Operational Performance in Core Segments: The company is focused on enhancing its operational efficiency and increasing production volumes in its phosphate and potash segments. Mosaic has made progress in improving phosphate production performance and is on track to deliver stronger results through improved operational foundation and lower operating costs. The ramp-up of the K3 potash mine, with first production scheduled for late 2027, is anticipated to add an estimated 2.5 million tonnes of annual potash capacity, significantly bolstering its position as a low-cost producer and contributing to future revenue streams.
  5. Cost Reductions and Operational Efficiencies: While not a direct revenue driver, significant cost reductions and operational efficiencies enhance profitability and indirectly support revenue growth by allowing for competitive pricing and reinvestment. Mosaic achieved its $150 million cost savings objective ahead of schedule in 2025 and has expanded its target to $250 million in savings by 2026. These savings are driven by initiatives such as a $300 million overhaul of its enterprise business software platform, expected to yield $70 million in annualized savings by the end of 2025.

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Share Repurchases

  • In 2023, Mosaic returned $1.1 billion to shareholders, including $756 million in share repurchases.
  • In 2022, share repurchases totaled $1.7 billion.
  • As of December 31, 2024, the company completed a buyback program, initiated in August 2022, repurchasing 26,679,815 shares for approximately $1.07 billion.
  • In August 2021, Mosaic's board approved a new $1 billion share buyback authorization, which replaced an earlier authorization that had $700 million remaining.

Share Issuance

  • Mosaic's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the past few years due to share repurchases. For instance, shares outstanding declined by 3.75% in 2024 from 2023, 6.4% in 2023 from 2022, and 6.71% in 2022 from 2021.

Outbound Investments

  • In 2023, Mosaic sold the Streamsong golf resort for $160 million.
  • In December 2024, the company converted its 25% equity investment in the Ma'aden Wa'ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (MWSPC) joint venture into shares of Ma'aden, and also signed an agreement to sell its Patos de Minas mine in Brazil.
  • Mosaic is advancing strategic alternatives for its Brazilian assets and working on the monetization of Florida land holdings.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $1.4 billion in 2023 and approximately $1.25 billion in 2024.
  • Expected capital expenditures are in the range of $1.2 to $1.3 billion for 2025, and projected to be $1.5 billion for 2026.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures includes maintaining assets, investing in high-returning projects to grow the business, and completing major projects such as the Esterhazy K3 potash mine and a new fertilizer blending and distribution facility in Palmeirante, Brazil.

Better Bets vs. Mosaic (MOS)

Peer Outperformance in Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

MOS has outperformed 56% of its 9 Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is NTR. Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals ranks 14th of 15 industries in Materials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals constituents that MOS has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
33%
of 9 industry peers · -25.0% return
3Y
44%
of 9 industry peers · -40.7% return
5Y
56%
of 9 industry peers · -24.1% return
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals peers with revenue growth within 4pp of MOS's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
MOS Mosaic -8.8% -11.3x -25.0%-40.7%-24.1%
NTR Nutrien -4.8% 13.5x 24.0%13.5%25.7% +50pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Materials sector, ranked by 5Y. Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals is MOS's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Copper 6 104.5%73.3%233.6% TGB 390% · HBM 324% · SCCO 258%
Silver 6 152.3%268.4%161.1% AYA 244% · HL 202% · SVM 187%
Steel 13 28.3%51.4%132.1% HCC 496% · AMR 360% · NWPX 319%
Gold 33 53.7%189.5%131.6% IAG 635% · AU 579% · OGC 445%
Aluminum 4 109.2%122.2%62.8% CENX 292% · KALU 78% · CSTM 47%
Construction Materials 9 -11.2%20.5%45.9% USLM 300% · CRH 97% · TGLS 97%
Diversified Metals & Mining 25 12.3%-18.5%32.7% ATLX 223471% · USAR 61679% · FMST 1710%
Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials 7 11.0%16.2%-2.1% PKG 103% · CCK 18% · SON 8%
Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers 12 14.2%12.9%-9.9% KRT 156% · MYE 74% · GEF 64%
Specialty Chemicals 41 14.6%-2.7%-15.7% LWLG 1152% · ODC 467% · NEU 203%
Precious Metals & Minerals 9 48.4%142.0%-24.5% ASM 587% · PPTA 380% · ELE 105%
Commodity Chemicals 13 22.6%5.6%-26.3% HWKN 265% · MEOH 75% · KOP 51%
Diversified Chemicals 4 19.0%-30.3%-26.6% CBT 74% · ASH -5% · CC -48%
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals ← 10 6.9%-13.6%-38.0% CF 174% · CTVA 73% · NTR 26%
Paper Products 3 -12.3%-49.5%-95.2% CLW -32% · MERC -95% · ITP -96%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MOSNTRCFIPIFMCCTVAMedian
NameMosaic Nutrien CF Indus.Intrepid.FMC Corteva  
Mkt Price22.6067.18120.0136.4410.2475.5351.81
Mkt Cap7.232.218.40.51.350.512.8
Rev LTM12,24828,2057,7392943,25117,8129,993
Op Inc LTM3264,1443,045101923,0421,684
FCF LTM-9472,0871,9043085629357
FCF 3Y Avg-1592,1791,321281451,575733
CFO LTM4444,1842,977621561,211828
CFO 3Y Avg1,1944,2852,498632262,1541,674

Growth & Margins

MOSNTRCFIPIFMCCTVAMedian
NameMosaic Nutrien CF Indus.Intrepid.FMC Corteva  
Rev Chg LTM8.8%8.6%20.0%6.9%-21.3%3.7%7.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.8%-4.8%-1.0%-0.8%-14.6%0.6%-2.9%
Rev Chg Q-6.0%3.6%17.6%-1.3%-17.5%-1.2%-1.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.5%1.3%4.5%-0.3%-5.3%-0.4%-0.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM-59.1%39.4%61.6%521.6%-72.4%20.7%30.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-42.7%-6.2%7.4%164.8%-32.9%15.0%0.6%
Op Mgn LTM2.7%14.7%39.3%3.4%5.9%17.1%10.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.4%12.7%32.2%-0.8%12.3%14.9%12.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.2%0.0%4.4%-0.1%-1.4%0.5%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM3.6%14.8%38.5%21.2%4.8%6.8%10.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.1%15.9%37.2%23.3%5.9%12.5%14.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-7.7%7.4%24.6%10.1%2.6%3.5%5.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.3%8.1%19.0%10.3%3.7%9.2%8.6%

Valuation

MOSNTRCFIPIFMCCTVAMedian
NameMosaic Nutrien CF Indus.Intrepid.FMC Corteva  
Mkt Cap7.232.218.40.51.350.512.8
P/S0.61.12.41.60.42.81.4
P/Op Inc22.07.86.148.56.716.612.2
P/EBIT485.48.25.638.3-0.628.718.5
P/E-11.313.58.818.3-0.550.011.2
P/CFO16.27.76.27.78.241.78.0
Total Yield-5.0%10.7%13.1%5.5%-201.8%2.6%4.1%
Dividend Yield3.9%3.3%1.7%0.0%12.9%0.6%2.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.0%7.9%8.5%7.3%3.5%3.4%5.4%
D/E0.80.40.20.03.30.10.3
Net D/E0.80.40.1-0.43.00.00.2

Returns

MOSNTRCFIPIFMCCTVAMedian
NameMosaic Nutrien CF Indus.Intrepid.FMC Corteva  
1M Rtn1.3%-0.6%-0.8%2.3%-6.1%-12.2%-0.7%
3M Rtn0.2%-4.9%-4.0%-19.7%-19.0%-9.2%-7.0%
6M Rtn-26.1%-6.6%25.0%3.6%-35.4%0.7%-2.9%
12M Rtn-25.0%24.0%47.9%26.0%-69.8%7.4%15.7%
3Y Rtn-40.7%13.5%60.9%32.3%-87.0%48.9%22.9%
1M Excs Rtn-4.2%-4.8%-2.0%-0.7%-7.2%-13.8%-4.5%
3M Excs Rtn-2.7%-10.5%-12.3%-26.6%-26.3%-13.0%-12.7%
6M Excs Rtn-35.2%-15.6%14.2%-4.8%-46.9%-9.4%-12.5%
12M Excs Rtn-49.6%1.9%26.8%5.3%-91.4%-16.3%-7.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-112.2%-57.7%-11.8%-35.1%-158.8%-28.4%-46.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Mosaic Fertilizantes4,8474,4225,6858,2875,088
Phosphates4,5764,5194,7246,1844,923
Potash2,6622,3893,2345,2082,627
Corporate, Eliminations and Other-33-20754-555-281
Total12,05211,12313,69619,12512,357


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Potash6386041,1522,768837
Mosaic Fertilizantes27723874910746
Phosphates1352253761,3471,180
Corporate, Eliminations and Other-229-446-264-240-294
Total8226221,3384,7852,468


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Phosphates10,2399,4209,4959,5708,776
Potash6,6116,4816,9159,5828,313
Mosaic Fertilizantes4,6184,3725,2065,5634,908
Corporate, Eliminations and Other3,0122,6521,418-1,32939
Total24,48022,92423,03323,38622,036


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$22.60 
Market Cap ($ Bil)7.2 
First Trading Date01/26/1988 
Distance from 52W High-35.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$22.17$24.48
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA2.0%-7.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility45.2%43.7%
Downside Capture91.5084.33
Upside Capture76.3132.17
Correlation (SPY)33.4%22.2%
MOS Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.631.001.050.820.700.75
Up Beta-1.170.380.460.470.230.75
Down Beta1.971.421.791.991.720.99
Up Capture106%78%74%25%9%17%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days13203057116368
Down Capture40%119%112%92%88%93%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days9223266132380

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MOS
MOS-28.1%43.8%-0.63-
Sector ETF (XLB)21.1%17.8%0.9247.3%
Equity (SPY)22.6%12.8%1.3222.2%
Gold (GLD)31.4%28.4%0.9527.5%
Commodities (DBC)37.9%20.1%1.4813.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.3%13.8%0.7311.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-46.5%42.9%-1.3311.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MOS
MOS-3.6%42.1%0.04-
Sector ETF (XLB)6.9%19.1%0.2550.4%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.2%0.6035.2%
Gold (GLD)19.0%18.6%0.8318.3%
Commodities (DBC)9.8%19.6%0.3931.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.2%18.9%0.0130.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.9%52.8%0.3715.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MOS
MOS0.0%45.0%0.16-
Sector ETF (XLB)10.2%20.7%0.4458.8%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7344.8%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.2%0.6110.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%18.0%0.3636.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%20.7%0.1936.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)60.9%66.1%1.0114.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity31.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 71520267.4%
Average Daily Volume7.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity317.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares10.0%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/13/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/20263.1%1.7% 
5/11/2026-1.8%-1.9%-3.1%
2/24/2026-5.3%-6.0%-7.3%
11/4/2025-1.2%-3.2%-10.3%
8/5/2025-13.3%-12.6%-8.6%
2/27/2025-4.7%-0.6%9.6%
11/12/2024-7.7%-7.9%-3.7%
8/6/2024-1.4%4.1%-0.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111311
# Negative131112
Median Positive3.1%5.6%9.6%
Median Negative-5.3%-7.9%-6.5%
Max Positive13.5%34.5%54.1%
Max Negative-13.3%-13.9%-22.4%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/20263.1%1.7% 
5/11/2026-1.8%-1.9%-3.1%
2/24/2026-5.3%-6.0%-7.3%
11/4/2025-1.2%-3.2%-10.3%
8/5/2025-13.3%-12.6%-8.6%
2/27/2025-4.7%-0.6%9.6%
11/12/2024-7.7%-7.9%-3.7%
8/6/2024-1.4%4.1%-0.9%
5/1/2024-5.1%-1.2%3.3%
2/21/20246.6%2.2%6.7%
11/7/20232.6%12.5%13.1%
8/1/20231.2%3.8%-3.5%
5/3/2023-10.0%-13.9%-22.4%
2/22/20232.6%8.5%-13.6%
11/7/20225.9%6.4%-4.9%
8/1/20221.6%1.8%11.6%
5/2/20228.7%-10.5%-5.7%
2/22/20222.3%17.4%54.1%
11/1/2021-9.2%-9.0%-18.7%
8/2/20214.7%8.8%7.6%
5/3/2021-2.0%1.4%6.7%
2/17/2021-9.1%5.6%10.2%
11/2/2020-12.1%-13.1%8.8%
8/3/202013.5%34.5%36.7%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111311
# Negative131112
Median Positive3.1%5.6%9.6%
Median Negative-5.3%-7.9%-6.5%
Max Positive13.5%34.5%54.1%
Max Negative-13.3%-13.9%-22.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/11/202610-Q
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202403/03/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/11/202610-Q
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202403/03/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
06/30/202208/02/202210-Q
03/31/202205/03/202210-Q
12/31/202102/23/202210-K
09/30/202111/02/202110-Q
06/30/202108/03/202110-Q
03/31/202105/04/202110-Q
12/31/202002/22/202110-K
09/30/202011/03/202010-Q
06/30/202008/04/202010-Q
03/31/202005/05/202010-Q
12/31/201902/20/202010-K
09/30/201911/05/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 8/5/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Phosphate Sales Volumes1.10 Mil1.25 Mil1.40 Mil-19.4% Lower NewGuidance: 1.55 Mil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 DAP FOB Plant Prices8208308407.8% Higher NewGuidance: 770 for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Potash Sales Volumes2.00 Mil2.10 Mil2.20 Mil5.0% Higher NewGuidance: 2.00 Mil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 MOP FOB Mine Prices2702802903.7% Higher NewGuidance: 270 for Q2 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures 1.20 Bil -4.0% LoweredGuidance: 1.25 Bil for 2026
2026 Potash Production Volumes 9.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 9.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization1.10 Bil1.15 Bil1.20 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.15 Bil for 2026
2026 Selling, General, and Administrative Expense510.00 Mil520.00 Mil530.00 Mil-1.9% LoweredGuidance: 530.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Net Interest Expense220.00 Mil230.00 Mil240.00 Mil9.5% RaisedGuidance: 210.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Cash Tax250.00 Mil275.00 Mil300.00 Mil-8.3% LoweredGuidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Mosaic Biosciences Net Sales 136.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 136.00 Mil for 2026

Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Potash Production Volumes 9.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 9.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Total Capital Expenditures 1.25 Bil -16.7% LoweredGuidance: 1.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization1.10 Bil1.15 Bil1.20 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.15 Bil for 2026
2026 Selling, General, and Administrative Expense520.00 Mil530.00 Mil -1.9% LoweredGuidance: 540.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Net Interest Expense200.00 Mil210.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 210.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Cash Tax275.00 Mil300.00 Mil    
Q2 2026 Phosphate Sales Volumes1.40 Mil1.55 Mil -13.9% Lower NewGuidance: 1.80 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 DAP FOB Plant Prices760770 17.6% Higher NewGuidance: 655 for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Potash Sales Volumes1.90 Mil2.00 Mil -4.8% Lower NewGuidance: 2.10 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 MOP FOB Mine Prices260270 1.9% Higher NewGuidance: 265 for Q1 2026
2026 Revenue 136.00 Mil    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Phosphate Sales Volumes1.70 Mil1.80 Mil1.90 Mil0 Same NewActual: 1.80 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 DAP FOB Plant Prices640655670-8.4% Lower NewActual: 715 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Potash Sales Volumes2.00 Mil2.10 Mil2.20 Mil-14.3% Lower NewActual: 2.45 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 MOP FOB Mine Prices255265275-3.6% Lower NewActual: 275 for Q4 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures 1.50 Bil 15.4% Higher NewActual: 1.30 Bil for 2025
2026 Phosphate Production Volumes 7.00 Mil 9.4% Higher NewActual: 6.40 Mil for 2025
2026 Potash Production Volumes 9.00 Mil -2.7% Lower NewActual: 9.25 Mil for 2025
2026 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization1.10 Bil1.15 Bil1.20 Bil0 Same NewActual: 1.15 Bil for 2025
2026 Selling, General, and Administrative Expense530.00 Mil540.00 Mil550.00 Mil0 Same NewActual: 540.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Net Interest Expense200.00 Mil210.00 Mil220.00 Mil10.5% Higher NewActual: 190.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 4/26/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Kuzenko, Jody Lynne DirectBuy1113202525.5368517,488218,818Form
2Precourt, Walter F IiiSVP - Chief Admin OfficerDirectSell602202535.7318,000643,1404,592,949Form
3Bodine, Bruce MPresident and CEODirectSell509202531.56180,708  Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Kuzenko, Jody Lynne DirectBuy1113202525.5368517,488218,818Form
2Precourt, Walter F IiiSVP - Chief Admin OfficerDirectSell602202535.7318,000643,1404,592,949Form
3Bodine, Bruce MPresident and CEODirectSell509202531.56180,708  Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 13, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Colrain Capital LLC$12.8 Mil4.9%26ADD +90.4%13F
Aegis Financial Corp$21.8 Mil3.7%37Hold13F
Randolph Co Inc$35.2 Mil3.4%43Hold13F
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC$23.5 Mil1.3%43ADD +104.5%13F
Perseverance Asset Management International$7.7 Mil0.8%33New13F
Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd$12.8 Mil0.7%47New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd$12.8 Mil0.7%47New13F
Perseverance Asset Management International$7.7 Mil0.8%33New13F
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC$23.5 Mil1.3%43ADD +104.5%13F
Colrain Capital LLC$12.8 Mil4.9%26ADD +90.4%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
GMT Capital Corp$22.8 Mil1.2%38Exited13F
Bornite Capital Management LP$7.2 Mil0.7%28Exited13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Randolph Co Inc$35.2 Mil3.4%43Hold13F
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC$23.5 Mil1.3%43ADD +104.5%13F
Aegis Financial Corp$21.8 Mil3.7%37Hold13F
Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd$12.8 Mil0.7%47New13F
Colrain Capital LLC$12.8 Mil4.9%26ADD +90.4%13F
Perseverance Asset Management International$7.7 Mil0.8%33New13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/12/2026