Intrepid Potash (IPI)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $36.93 | Market Cap: $484.6 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Intrepid Potash (IPI)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $36.93Market Cap: $484.6 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.3% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Specialty Chemicals for Performance. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 42x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% Key risksIPI key risks include [1] production vulnerability due to its complete reliance on weather-dependent solar solution mining, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Specialty Chemicals for Performance. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 42x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% |
| Key risksIPI key risks include [1] production vulnerability due to its complete reliance on weather-dependent solar solution mining, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Intrepid Potash announced the strategic sale of its Intrepid South Ranch for $70 million. This divestiture, which closed on April 1, 2026, allows the company to refocus on core fertilizer operations, boost potash and Trio production, reduce costs, and fund high-return investments. The $70 million in cash, including an $8 million deposit received in December 2025, provided a significant cash infusion and enhanced balance sheet flexibility after amending its credit facility.
2. The company reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. Intrepid Potash surpassed analyst expectations, reporting an EPS of $0.49 against a consensus estimate of $0.26 and revenue of $75.9 million compared to an estimated $65.25 million for Q4 2025. The company also highlighted a debt-free balance sheet with $83.5 million in cash and an adjusted EBITDA of $63.1 million for the full year 2025.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.1% change in IPI stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.73 | 36.91 | 33.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 278 | 298 | 7.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 1.6 | 25.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IPI | 33.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | -5.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 14.5% | 29.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.7% change in IPI stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.58 | 36.91 | 20.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 283 | 298 | 5.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 1.6 | 15.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IPI | 20.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 7.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 16.5% | 35.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.6% change in IPI stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.39 | 36.91 | 25.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 255 | 298 | 17.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 1.6 | 9.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IPI | 25.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 20.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.6% | 35.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.7% change in IPI stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 775.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.60 | 36.91 | 33.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 338 | 298 | -11.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.4% | 3.7% | -82.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.9 | 43.3 | 775.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IPI | 33.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 25.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 35.9% | 43.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IPI Return | 77% | -32% | -17% | -8% | 27% | 35% | 55% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 13% | -19% | -2% | 19% | 34% | 117% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IPI Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 55% | 40% | 47% | 53% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IPI Max Drawdown | -8% | -34% | -39% | -25% | -1% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -12% | -33% | -27% | -18% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTR, MOS, CMP, CF, WTTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IPI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 579.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 288.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -57.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 710 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 410.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NTR, MOS, CMP, CF, WTTR
In The Past
Intrepid Potash's stock fell -85.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -85.3% loss requires a 579.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Intrepid Potash (IPI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Intrepid Potash (IPI):
- Like a Compass Minerals (an essential minerals producer) that strongly focuses on potash fertilizers and dedicated oilfield services.
- Imagine a smaller, U.S.-based Nutrien (the fertilizer giant) that also supplies key minerals and water services to the oil and gas industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Muriate of Potash (Potassium Chloride): A primary fertilizer input also used in industrial processes, oil and gas drilling fluids, and animal feed.
- Trio: A specialty fertilizer that delivers potassium, sulfate, and magnesium in a single particle.
- Water Sales: Sells water for use in the oil and gas services industry.
- Potassium Chloride Mixing Services: Provides real-time mixing of potassium chloride on location for hydraulic fracturing operations.
- Trucking Services: Offers trucking services, primarily supporting the oil and gas services industry.
- Salt: Sells salt for various applications including animal feeds, industrial uses, pool salts, and de-icing roads.
- Magnesium Chloride: A product used for deicing and dedusting of roads.
- Brines: Provides brines for well development and completion activities in the oil and gas industry.
- Metal Recovery Salt: A combination of potash and salt designed to enhance aluminum recovery in recycling facilities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intrepid Potash (IPI) primarily sells its products and services to other companies (B2B) across various industries, rather than directly to individual consumers. The provided background information does not list specific customer company names or their symbols. Therefore, the major customers can be described by the following categories of companies that Intrepid Potash serves:
- Agricultural Sector: This category includes agricultural distributors, fertilizer blenders, large-scale farming operations, and animal feed manufacturers. These customers purchase muriate of potash (potassium chloride) and Trio specialty fertilizer for use as fertilizer inputs, and potash as a nutrient supplement for animal feed.
- Oil and Gas Industry: Intrepid Potash supplies various products and services to oil and gas service companies and exploration and production (E&P) companies. This includes muriate of potash for drilling and fracturing fluids, water sales, potassium chloride real-time mixing services on location for hydraulic fracturing operations, trucking services, and brines for well development and completion activities.
- General Industrial & Municipal Sector: This broad category encompasses a diverse range of industrial customers and governmental entities. It includes industrial manufacturers (e.g., chemical companies, aluminum recycling facilities purchasing metal recovery salt), as well as municipalities or road maintenance companies that utilize salt and magnesium chloride for deicing, dedusting, and managing road conditions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Kevin S. Crutchfield, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Crutchfield was appointed CEO and a Class III director of Intrepid Potash effective December 2, 2024. He brings over three decades of global mining experience and more than twenty years of leadership experience in public companies, including previous CEO roles at Compass Minerals (2019–2024), Contura Energy (now Alpha Metallurgical Resources), and Alpha Natural Resources. He has also held various operating and executive management positions at Pittston Coal Company, Cyprus Amax Minerals Company, and El Paso Corporation. Mr. Crutchfield holds a B.S. in Mining & Mineral Engineering from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and completed the Executive Program at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business.
Matthew D. Preston, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Preston has served as Chief Financial Officer of Intrepid Potash since December 2021. Prior to this role, he held positions as Vice President of Finance from November 2019 to December 2021 and Director of Budget and Forecast from April 2016 to November 2019. He joined Intrepid in 2008 and has since served in increasingly senior finance roles, including Senior Manager of Budget and Forecast, Manager of Budget and Forecast, and Financial Analyst.
Christina C. Sheehan, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Ms. Sheehan has served as Interim General Counsel since May 2022 and Deputy General Counsel since December 2021. Before joining Intrepid, she was a partner at Modrall, Sperling, Roehl, Harris & Sisk, P.A., where she specialized in environmental and regulatory law. Her legal expertise encompasses water rights, water quality, mining, energy, air quality, natural resources, and environmental compliance.
Cris Ingold, Chief Accounting Officer
Mr. Ingold has served as Intrepid’s Corporate Controller since November 2019. He joined Intrepid in 2011 and has held successively more senior accounting roles within the company. Before his tenure at Intrepid, Mr. Ingold worked in various accounting capacities at public companies and also at Deloitte & Touche LLP, providing audit services to a wide range of public and private clients across diverse industries. He is a certified public accountant and a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Intrepid Potash's business are primarily driven by its significant exposure to the cyclical nature of the agricultural and oil and gas industries.
- Dependence on Agricultural Market Conditions: A substantial portion of Intrepid Potash's business, particularly its Potash and Trio segments, relies on demand from the agricultural sector for fertilizers. This exposes the company to fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices, global crop demand, weather patterns, and farmer spending, which can directly impact the demand, pricing, and profitability of its fertilizer products.
- Volatility in the Oil and Gas Industry: Intrepid Potash's Oilfield Solutions segment, as well as a portion of its Potash segment (used in drilling and fracturing fluids) and other products like brines for well development, are highly dependent on the activity and economic health of the oil and gas industry. Declines in oil and gas prices, reduced drilling and completion activity, or adverse changes in regulatory environments can significantly impact revenue and profitability from these operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The global energy transition, characterized by increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, poses an emerging threat to Intrepid Potash's Oilfield Solutions segment. This shift reduces the long-term demand for fossil fuels, consequently diminishing the need for oil and gas exploration, hydraulic fracturing operations, and well development activities. As a result, the demand for IPI's water sales, potassium chloride real-time mixing services, trucking services, and brines used in the oil and gas industry could significantly decline.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) operates in several key markets. The addressable market sizes for their main products and services are as follows:
Potash
- The global potash market was valued at approximately USD 62.37 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 93.50 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2025 to 2032. Other estimates place the global market at USD 65.9 billion in 2025, expanding to USD 106.8 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 5.5%.
- The U.S. potash market generated revenues of approximately USD 5.54 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 8.69 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 5.9% from 2025 to 2032. Another report estimated the U.S. market at USD 13.0 billion in 2025, with a forecast to reach USD 20.4 billion by 2034, reflecting a CAGR of 5.2%.
Trio (Specialty Fertilizers)
- The global specialty fertilizers market was estimated at USD 40.04 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 62.15 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 5.7% from 2026 to 2033. Other sources estimate the global market at USD 32.48 billion in 2024, expecting to reach USD 54.08 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 6.59% from 2025 to 2032.
- The United States specialty fertilizer market was valued at USD 6.77 billion in 2024. It is expected to reach USD 11.49 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.05% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate for the U.S. market is USD 7.04 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 9.17 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.43%.
Oilfield Solutions (Water sales, Potassium Chloride real-time mixing services, Trucking services)
- The U.S. midstream water market for oil and gas is projected to total US$156 billion between 2025 and 2030, averaging over US$26 billion per year.
- The U.S. hydraulic fracturing fluids and chemicals industry is projected to grow from USD 14.4 billion in 2025 to USD 29.7 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 7.5%.
- The global drilling and completion fluids market was valued at USD 8.6 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 12.9 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2023 to 2032.
Salt (Animal feeds, industrial applications, pool salts, de-icing)
- The global industrial salt market is estimated at USD 13.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 17.1 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.6%. Other estimates indicate the market reached USD 15.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 19.2 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 2.15%.
- The U.S. salt market size was valued at USD 4.12 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 4.91 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 2.0% during the forecast period. The U.S. industrial salts market was estimated at USD 1.63 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2.33 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 3%.
Magnesium Chloride (Deicing and dedusting of roads)
- The global magnesium chloride market is expected to reach USD 680 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.3% from 2023 to 2030. More specifically, the de-icing agent segment of the magnesium chloride market held USD 193.24 million in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 276.96 million by 2032. Another report indicates the global magnesium chloride market is anticipated to expand from USD 3.2 billion in 2024 to USD 5.7 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of approximately 5.9%.
Brines (Well development and completion activities)
- This market is primarily covered under the "Oilfield Solutions" segment.
Metal Recovery Salt (Potash and salt for aluminum recycling)
- null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of increased production volumes, strong performance in its specialty fertilizer segment, the development of new critical mineral projects, and growth in its oilfield solutions and byproduct sales.
Here are 4 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Intrepid Potash:
-
Increased Production Volumes and Improved Unit Economics in Potash and Trio Segments: Intrepid Potash anticipates a significant increase in its potash production. The company projected a 10–15% increase in potash production in 2024, followed by an additional 15–20% rise in 2025, driven by higher-grade brines and enhanced pond harvests. For 2026, potash production is projected to be between 270,000 and 285,000 tons. The Trio segment also expects continued momentum, with full-year production estimated at 235,000 to 245,000 tons in 2025 and approximately 7% growth projected for 2026. These production increases, coupled with improving unit economics, are expected to lead to higher sales volumes and enhanced profitability.
-
Strong Demand and Favorable Pricing for Trio: The Trio specialty fertilizer segment has been a significant contributor to Intrepid's performance. The company reported record Trio sales volumes of 303,000 tons in 2025, with pricing nearly equal to potash. Strong demand and price increases have been noted, with Trio pricing exceeding potash for the first time since 2016 in 2024. This trend of robust demand and strong pricing for Trio is expected to continue, contributing to revenue growth.
-
Advancement of the Lithium Project: Intrepid Potash is diversifying its revenue streams through the development of its White Silver lithium project at Wendover, Utah. The project aims to produce approximately 5,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate from industrial brine. Testing has shown a high lithium extraction rate (92.9%) meeting battery-grade specifications. The company plans to include maiden resource estimates for lithium and magnesium in its 2025 10-K filing, indicating a potential new product line and significant growth opportunity in the domestic critical mineral production market.
-
Growth in Oilfield Solutions and Byproduct Sales: The Oilfield Solutions segment, which provides water and mixing services for the oil and gas industry, and the company's overall byproduct sales, are also expected to drive revenue growth. The Oilfield Solutions segment experienced a doubling of its segment margin in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the prior year, primarily due to increased water sales. Additionally, brine sales in 2024 reached a company record of $11.1 million, surpassing the previous best year in 2023. The continued growth in these high-margin byproduct sales further supports overall revenue expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) has made several capital allocation decisions over the last three to five years, focusing on operational improvements, strategic growth initiatives, and shareholder returns.
Share Repurchases
- Intrepid Potash announced a share repurchase program in March 2022, authorizing the repurchase of up to $35 million worth of its shares.
- Despite the authorization, the company did not purchase any shares under the program during 2025.
- Opportunistic share repurchases were listed as a capital allocation priority for 2025.
Share Issuance
- The number of common shares outstanding for Intrepid Potash has remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations. As of February 28, 2026, there were 13,406,913 common shares outstanding.
- At the end of 2025, the company had 13.03 million shares outstanding, a 0.95% increase from 2024.
- The company's Amended and Restated Equity Incentive Plan, most recently amended in May 2022, allows for the issuance of common stock, restricted shares, restricted stock units, and non-qualified stock option awards.
Inbound Investments
- In 2024, Intrepid Potash received a $45 million payment as part of the Third Amendment to the Cooperative Development Agreement with XTO.
- The company anticipates receiving up to $150 million in remaining payments from XTO, including a guaranteed $50 million, which could influence future capital return decisions.
- As of the end of 2025, Intrepid Potash held an $8 million deposit related to the potential sale of the majority of its assets at Intrepid South.
Outbound Investments
- Intrepid Potash entered a joint development agreement in 2025 to evaluate a 5,000-metric-ton lithium extraction facility using brine from its Wendover operation.
- The company has progressed its Wendover lithium project through a joint development agreement with Aquatech and Adionics, including an updated Technical Report Summary for the White Silver Lithium Project.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 totaled $30.2 million, primarily consisting of sustaining capital, including the completion of the AMAX test well, the replacement of a continuous miner, and other equipment purchases.
- For 2026, Intrepid Potash expects capital expenditures to be in the range of $40 million to $50 million, primarily allocated to the construction of Primary Pond 8 at Wendover and sustaining capital at the East Mine.
- The company's capital allocation priorities include reinvesting in core assets and ensuring operational reliability.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Intrepid Potash Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Intrepid Potash Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to IPI.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | IFF | International Flavors & Fragrances | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.1% |
| 03132026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -4.2% | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -16.7% |
| 03062026 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.8% | 9.8% | -6.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,246 |
| Op Inc LTM | 597 |
| FCF LTM | 60 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 108 |
| CFO LTM | 520 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 878 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 56.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -16.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.1 |
| P/EBIT | 16.1 |
| P/E | 14.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 49.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $36.91 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/22/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $38.84 | $31.83 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.0% | 16.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 74.9% | 55.3% |
| Downside Capture | -0.52 | 0.06 |
| Upside Capture | -47.16 | 19.84 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -12.1% | 5.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.07 | 0.50 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.95 |
| Up Beta | -3.18 | -0.07 | -0.02 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| Down Beta | 0.57 | 1.99 | 1.74 | 1.46 | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Up Capture | -101% | 112% | 197% | 165% | 66% | 117% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 60 | 118 | 366 |
| Down Capture | -207% | -79% | -75% | 55% | 53% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 29 | 64 | 130 | 379 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPI | 24.0% | 56.3% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 29.5% | 16.4% | 1.39 | 26.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 5.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | 22.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | 40.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | -0.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 8.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPI | 4.9% | 61.2% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.8% | 18.9% | 0.26 | 44.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 31.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 35.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 29.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 11.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPI | 13.8% | 72.0% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.6% | 20.6% | 0.46 | 44.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 34.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 32.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 28.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 10.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/4/2026 | 10.6% | 22.4% | 21.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | -8.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | -5.3% | -6.5% | -8.4% |
| 3/3/2025 | -2.0% | 4.5% | 20.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 7.7% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 7/10/2024 | 8.7% | 12.4% | -5.0% |
| 3/6/2024 | 5.8% | -10.1% | 0.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | -6.2% | 3.1% | -1.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -11.2% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.6% | 22.4% | 23.4% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -23.1% | -22.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Potash sales volumes | 95,000 | 0.10 Mil | 0.10 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Average potash net realized sales price per ton | 345 | 350 | 355 | ||||
| Q1 2026 Trio sales volumes | 0.10 Mil | 0.11 Mil | 0.12 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Average Trio net realized sales price per ton | 380 | 385 | 390 | ||||
| 2026 Potash production | 0.27 Mil | 0.28 Mil | 0.28 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Trio production | 0.28 Mil | 0.29 Mil | 0.30 Mil | 303.4% | Raised | Guidance: 72,500 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | 40.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 32.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 30.00 Mil | 32.00 Mil | 34.00 Mil | -7.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 34.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Trio Production Rate | 70,000 | 72,500 | 75,000 | ||||
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.