LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)
Market Price (7/14/2026): $58.05 | Market Cap: $18.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)
Market Price (7/14/2026): $58.05Market Cap: $18.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 8.3% Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.3% Key risksLYB key risks include [1] significant asset write-downs in its European and Advanced Polymer Solutions segments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 8.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.3% |
| Key risksLYB key risks include [1] significant asset write-downs in its European and Advanced Polymer Solutions segments, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) stock has lost about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent challenging macroeconomic environment and industry overcapacity. The chemical industry faced a difficult economic environment, with persistent structural oversupply, particularly in polyethylene, polypropylene, and other olefins, which pressured operating rates and profit margins globally. This was exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, specifically the conflict in the Middle East, which impacted global energy markets and trade flows, contributing to an expected global chemical production growth of only 0.5% in 2026.
2. Mixed fiscal Q1 2026 financial results. While LyondellBasell reported diluted earnings per share of $0.49 for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), beating analyst consensus estimates of $0.31, its revenue of $7.20 billion fell short of expectations and represented a 6.3% year-over-year decline. This revenue miss, despite an EPS beat, indicated underlying weakness in demand.
Show more
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) stock has lost about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent challenging macroeconomic environment and industry overcapacity. The chemical industry faced a difficult economic environment, with persistent structural oversupply, particularly in polyethylene, polypropylene, and other olefins, which pressured operating rates and profit margins globally. This was exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, specifically the conflict in the Middle East, which impacted global energy markets and trade flows, contributing to an expected global chemical production growth of only 0.5% in 2026.
2. Mixed fiscal Q1 2026 financial results. While LyondellBasell reported diluted earnings per share of $0.49 for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), beating analyst consensus estimates of $0.31, its revenue of $7.20 billion fell short of expectations and represented a 6.3% year-over-year decline. This revenue miss, despite an EPS beat, indicated underlying weakness in demand.
3. Significant insider selling activity. A major shareholder, Ai Investments Holdings LLC, executed a substantial sale of 385,390 shares totaling $26,256,663 on March 11, 2026. This notable insider selling occurred shortly before the start of the specified period, potentially signaling a lack of confidence from a significant stakeholder.
4. Analyst downgrades and reduced price targets. Several financial analysts adjusted their outlook on LyondellBasell negatively during the period. For example, Bank of America lowered its price objective from $68.00 to $48.00 and assigned an "underperform" rating on June 30, 2026. Similarly, Royal Bank of Canada reduced its price target from $94.00 to $65.00 on July 1, 2026. These revisions likely contributed to the negative market sentiment surrounding the stock.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.8% change in LYB stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.73 | 58.32 | -26.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30,153 | 29,673 | -1.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 0.6 | -25.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 322 | 322 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LYB | -26.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.2% | -38.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 1.2% | -17.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.7% change in LYB stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.34 | 58.32 | 37.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30,870 | 29,673 | -3.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.6 | 43.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 322 | 322 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LYB | 37.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | -24.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.0% | 11.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.6% change in LYB stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.71 | 58.32 | 8.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,767 | 29,673 | -9.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.6 | 19.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 324 | 322 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LYB | 8.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.3% | -2.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 16.9% | 31.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.5% change in LYB stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.29 | 58.32 | -22.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,541 | 29,673 | -37.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.6 | 22.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 326 | 322 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LYB | -22.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 32.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 28.8% | 52.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LYB Return | 5% | -1% | 21% | -17% | -36% | 33% | -12% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -17% | 27% | -18% | -22% | 12% | -9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LYB Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 43% | 45% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LYB Max Drawdown | -26% | -35% | -16% | -28% | -42% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -42% | -19% | -33% | -46% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DOW, DD, WLK, EMN, CE. See LYB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LYB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 138 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 185 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 62 days |
In The Past
LyondellBasell Industries's stock fell -30.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 43.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | LYB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 185 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -37.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1053 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 125 days |
In The Past
LyondellBasell Industries's stock fell -30.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 43.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is a major global chemical company specializing in the production of a wide range of chemicals and polymers. Its core operations center around the creation of olefins and polyolefins, which are fundamental building blocks for plastics such as polyethylene and polypropylene. These versatile plastic materials are crucial ingredients for manufacturing countless everyday products across various industries.
The company's product portfolio extends beyond basic plastics to include intermediate chemicals like styrene monomers, ethylene glycols, and propylene oxide and its derivatives. LyondellBasell also produces specialized compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, and advanced polymers for more demanding applications. Furthermore, LYB operates a refining segment, converting crude oil into gasoline and distillates, and a technology segment that develops, licenses, and supplies catalysts for chemical and polyolefin process technologies.
LyondellBasell serves a broad international customer base, providing essential materials to industries such as packaging, automotive, construction, electronics, and textiles. Its refined products cater to the energy sector, while its technology and catalysts support other chemical manufacturers worldwide. With operations spanning the United States, Europe, and Asia, the company maintains a significant global footprint, delivering its diverse chemical, polymer, and refining solutions to markets around the globe.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
The Dow Inc. or BASF of industrial plastics and chemicals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Olefins and Co-products: These are fundamental chemical building blocks used in various industrial processes.
- Polyolefins: A broad category of plastic resins including polyethylene (high, low, and linear low density) and polypropylene (homopolymers and copolymers).
- Propylene Oxide and Derivatives: Key intermediate chemicals with diverse applications in industries ranging from automotive to construction.
- Oxyfuels: Fuel components and related products that enhance fuel performance and reduce emissions.
- Intermediate Chemicals: A range of industrial chemicals such as styrene monomers, acetyls, ethylene glycols, and ethylene oxides used in further manufacturing.
- Advanced Polymer Solutions: Custom-engineered compounds, plastics, masterbatches, composites, colors, and powders for specialized applications.
- Refined Fuels: Products like gasoline and various distillates derived from the processing of crude oil.
- Process Technologies: Development and licensing of proprietary chemical and polyolefin manufacturing processes.
- Polyolefin Catalysts: Specialized chemical agents manufactured and sold to facilitate the production of polyolefin plastics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
LyondellBasell Industries (symbol: LYB) sells primarily to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B) rather than directly to individual consumers.
Given the nature of its products—a wide range of olefins, polyolefins, intermediate chemicals, advanced polymers, and refined petroleum products—LyondellBasell serves a highly diverse global customer base across numerous industrial sectors. Specific individual customer company names are typically not publicly disclosed for chemical and polymer producers unless a single customer represents a significant portion of their revenue, which is uncommon for companies in this sector.
Based on LyondellBasell's product portfolio, its major customers are found in various manufacturing industries that utilize these materials as raw components for their own products. Key categories of customers include:
- Plastics Converters and Manufacturers: Companies that process LyondellBasell's polyethylene and polypropylene into a vast array of plastic products for packaging (films, bottles, containers), automotive components, construction materials (pipes, insulation), consumer goods (appliances, toys), and other industrial applications.
- Automotive Industry: Manufacturers and their suppliers who use advanced polymers, polypropylene compounds, and engineered plastics for lightweighting and enhancing vehicle components.
- Building and Construction Industry: Companies utilizing polyolefins and other chemicals for infrastructure, piping, roofing, flooring, and insulation materials.
- Refining and Fuel Distribution Companies: For the gasoline and distillates produced by its Refining segment.
- Other Chemical and Manufacturing Industries: Companies that use LyondellBasell's intermediate chemicals (such as styrene monomers, ethylene glycols, and propylene oxide derivatives) as building blocks in their own chemical processes to create further specialized products, including resins, coatings, adhesives, and textiles.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Peter Vanacker
Chief Executive Officer
Peter Vanacker is the Chief Executive Officer of LyondellBasell, a role he assumed no later than June 2022. He brings over 30 years of industry experience. Before joining LyondellBasell, he served as President, CEO, and Chair of the Executive Committee at Neste Corporation, a renewable products company. His prior leadership roles also include CEO and Managing Director of CABB Group GmbH, a fine chemicals producer and a spinoff of Clariant, and CEO and Managing Director of Treofan Group, a global manufacturer of polypropylene films. Additionally, he held various executive positions at Bayer AG, including Executive Vice President and head of the global polyurethanes business and a member of the executive committee of Bayer Material Science (now Covestro). He has worked internationally in Belgium, Brazil, Germany, and the United States.
Agustin Izquierdo
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Agustin Izquierdo is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for LyondellBasell, a position he assumed on March 1, 2025. He joined LyondellBasell in November 2022 as Vice President, Strategy & Finance, Intermediates & Derivatives, and was later promoted to Senior Vice President, Olefins & Polyolefins Americas & Refining in April 2024. Prior to LyondellBasell, he spent from 2009 to 2022 in roles of increasing responsibility at BASF, including general manager, business director, and vice president of Planning, Finance, and Digital. Before his time at BASF, Izquierdo worked for nearly a decade in Morgan Stanley's Investment Banking Division, gaining experience in corporate finance, debt restructurings, mergers and acquisitions, and capital markets.
Jeffrey Kaplan
Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Jeffrey Kaplan serves as Executive Vice President and General Counsel for LyondellBasell. He is also noted as Chief Legal Officer and Executive Vice President.
Kim Foley
Executive Vice President, Global Olefins & Polyolefins
Kim Foley is the Executive Vice President, Global Olefins & Polyolefins at LyondellBasell. She is also identified as Kimberly Foley.
Aaron Ledet
Executive Vice President, Intermediates & Derivatives and Supply Chain
Aaron Ledet holds the position of Executive Vice President, Intermediates & Derivatives and Supply Chain at LyondellBasell. He is also listed as Executive Vice President, Intermediates & Derivatives.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Cyclicality and Volatility of the Chemical Industry, including Raw Material and Energy Price Fluctuations and Industry Overcapacity: LyondellBasell's operating results are significantly impacted by the cyclicality and volatility of the chemical industry. The company is heavily concentrated in basic petrochemicals and plastics, which are structurally exposed to volatile energy prices and cyclical demand. Raw material and energy costs, such as crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), represent the largest component of production costs and have historically experienced substantial fluctuations. These price swings can adversely affect operating results, especially if there's a lag in passing increased costs to customers or if a sustained decrease in crude oil prices negatively impacts North American operations. Furthermore, global capacity additions frequently lead to periods of oversupply in the petrochemical sector, compressing margins and impacting profitability, particularly in segments like olefins and polyolefins.
- Global Economic Downturns and Weak Demand: The demand for LyondellBasell's products, including plastics and other chemicals, is closely tied to overall industrial production and consumer spending. Consequently, global economic downturns and a weakening of industrial and automotive sectors directly translate into reduced demand and lower sales prices for the company's products. In 2025, the company recognized significant non-cash impairment charges due to a prolonged downturn in the European petrochemical and global automotive industries, and reported revenue declines driven by lower average sales prices and reduced demand.
- Evolving Regulatory Environment and Sustainability Pressures: As a major producer of chemicals and plastics, LyondellBasell is exposed to increasing regulatory scrutiny and environmental pressures, particularly concerning climate change, emissions, and the environmental impact of plastics. The evolving regulatory landscape can lead to increased compliance costs and operational restrictions. The global shift towards sustainability and circular economy solutions, while a strategic necessity, requires significant capital investment and operational adjustments that can pressure short-term earnings and demand a re-evaluation of current production methods and product portfolios. The company is structurally exposed to environmental scrutiny regarding its fossil-fuel-based feedstocks and industrial end markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Clear emerging threats for LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) include:
-
The accelerated global shift towards sustainability and circular economy principles, leading to increased demand for advanced mechanical and chemical recycling technologies, bio-based polymers, and truly biodegradable materials. This trend poses a significant threat to the demand for virgin fossil-fuel-derived plastics, which constitute a core part of LyondellBasell's product portfolio, including polyolefins, polyethylene, and polypropylene. Growing regulatory pressures and consumer preferences for reduced plastic waste and more sustainable alternatives could erode market share and profitability for conventional plastic producers.
-
The ongoing global energy transition and decarbonization efforts, characterized by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy sources. This shift directly threatens the demand for refined fossil fuels, such as gasoline and distillates, which are key products of LyondellBasell's refining segment. A sustained decline in demand for these products could negatively impact the profitability and long-term viability of their refining operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (symbol: LYB) operates in various chemical markets globally. The addressable market sizes for its main products and services are detailed below:
- Olefins: The global olefins market size was valued at approximately USD 264.36 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to around USD 427.75 billion by 2034.
- Polyolefins: The global polyolefins market size was valued at USD 288.31 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 742.64 billion by 2034.
- Polyethylene (a type of polyolefin): The global polyethylene market size is calculated at USD 171.25 billion in 2025 and is predicted to reach around USD 278.96 billion by 2035.
- Polypropylene (a type of polyolefin): The global polypropylene market size accounted for USD 193.91 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 293.54 billion by 2035.
- Propylene Oxide: The global propylene oxide market size was valued at USD 23.0 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 33.8 billion by 2034.
- Styrene Monomers: The global Styrene Monomer (SM) market size was valued at approximately USD 49 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach an impressive USD 73 billion by 2032.
- Acetyls: The global acetyls market size was valued at USD 31.89 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 52.08 billion by 2033.
- Ethylene Glycols: The global ethylene glycols market size was estimated at USD 18.79 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 31.55 billion by 2034.
- Ethylene Oxides: The global ethylene oxide market size was valued at USD 38.38 billion in 2025. The market is projected to grow from USD 40.18 billion in 2026 to USD 57.96 billion by 2034.
- Advanced Polymers: The global Advanced Polymers Market size was valued at USD 235 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand to a value of USD 450 billion by 2033.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Circular & Low Carbon Solutions (CLCS) Business: LyondellBasell is strategically investing in and building a profitable Circular & Low Carbon Solutions business. The company expects this segment to significantly contribute to future earnings, with a target of at least $1 billion in incremental EBITDA by 2030, driven by impressive volume growth in recycled and renewable polymers.
- Optimizing and Growing Core Businesses through Strategic Investments and Portfolio Management: The company aims to accelerate growth, expand margins, and improve returns by focusing on businesses where it has leading positions in expanding and well-positioned markets. This includes disciplined reinvestment in core assets, such as the successful ramp-up of new PO/TBA capacity and the Flex-2 expansion of propylene production, which is expected to generate over $150 million in EBITDA benefits. LyondellBasell is also actively managing its portfolio by divesting non-core assets and making strategic acquisitions, such as a 35% stake in the NATPET joint venture, to focus on higher-return opportunities and leverage advantaged feedstock positions.
- Realization of Benefits from Value Enhancement Program (VEP) / Cash Improvement Plan (CIP): LyondellBasell's Value Enhancement Program and subsequent Cash Improvement Plan are expected to deliver substantial recurring annual EBITDA improvement. These programs achieve this by expanding capacity through low-cost debottlenecks, improving operational reliability, and reducing costs. The Cash Improvement Plan is specifically targeted to deliver $1.3 billion by the end of 2026, which will contribute to increased profitability and, indirectly, revenue growth through enhanced production capabilities and efficiency.
- Recovery in Petrochemical Market Conditions: After a period of challenging market conditions, LyondellBasell anticipates a gradual recovery in key end markets over the next 2-3 years. This expected recovery is driven by signs of improved domestic demand for U.S. polyolefins, anticipated seasonal demand improvements in Europe, and overall normalization of the petrochemical cycle. The company expects to benefit from reductions in interest rates and inflation, alongside increased demand for durable goods.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- LyondellBasell’s specific share repurchases amounted to $201 million in 2025, $195 million in 2024, and $211 million in 2023.
- Shareholders authorized a program in May 2025 to repurchase up to 10% of the company's share capital, equivalent to 34,042,250 shares, with this authorization valid until November 23, 2026. However, in January 2026, the company stated no further share buybacks were planned for 2025 or 2026.
- The total purchase cost for share repurchases, from program inception through December 31, 2025, was $23.3 billion.
Outbound Investments
- LyondellBasell made several acquisitions, including APK (plastic recycling solutions) in August 2024, PreZero in February 2024, QCP in May 2023, Mepol in March 2023, and Poly Pacific in June 2021.
- The company secured a new feedstock allocation in Saudi Arabia for a long-term joint project with Sipchem, which will support a 1.5 million metric ton ethylene cracker and downstream olefin derivatives.
- LyondellBasell plans to sell select olefins and polyolefins assets and the associated business in Europe, with divestment of four European assets on track for completion in Q2 2026. Additionally, the Houston refinery is being shuttered by the end of 2025 to redeploy capital to higher-return, lower-carbon businesses.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $1.9 billion in 2025, $1.8 billion in 2024, and $1.5 billion in 2023.
- For 2026, expected capital expenditures are approximately $1.2 billion, with $400 million allocated for growth and $800 million for maintenance.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes maintaining safe and reliable operations, continuing construction of the MoReTec-1 chemical recycling plant in Germany, growing low-cost propylene capacity with Flex-2, increasing chemical recycling capacity with MoReTec-2 in Houston, and expanding cost-advantaged Middle East production.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 62.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.3 |
| Rev LTM | 10,234 |
| Op Inc LTM | 712 |
| FCF LTM | 168 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 545 |
| CFO LTM | 1,092 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,282 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -49.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -31.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.3 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.3 |
| P/EBIT | -9.4 |
| P/E | -6.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.1 |
| Total Yield | -3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -22.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -26.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -31.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia, International (O&P-EAI) | 10,227 | 10,867 | 10,479 | 13,455 | 12,685 |
| Olefins and Polyolefins-Americas (O&P-Americas) | 9,801 | 11,533 | 11,280 | 14,480 | 10,502 |
| Intermediates and Derivatives (I&D) | 9,069 | 10,424 | 11,086 | 12,950 | 9,968 |
| Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS) | 3,472 | 3,634 | 3,698 | 4,202 | 5,133 |
| Technology | 549 | 671 | 663 | 693 | 707 |
| Other | -2,965 | -3,735 | -5,813 | -7,222 | |
| Refining | 9,714 | 11,893 | 7,178 | ||
| Total | 30,153 | 33,394 | 41,107 | 50,451 | 46,173 |
| $ Mil | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olefins and Polyolefins– Americas | 3,253 | 2,650 | 1,857 | 1,363 |
| Inter mediates &Derivatives | 1,300 | 1,430 | 862 | 669 |
| Olefins and Polyolefins – Europe,Asia&International | 377 | 127 | 475 | 526 |
| Technology | 157 | 122 | 107 | 108 |
| Refining and Oxyfuels | 22 | 334 | 718 | 142 |
| Other | -7 | 13 | -21 | -63 |
| Current cost adjustment | 199 | |||
| Total | 5,102 | 4,676 | 3,998 | 2,944 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $58.32 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 18.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/28/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $64.70 | $56.30 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -9.9% | 3.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.3% | 45.9% |
| Downside Capture | -33.13 | -25.52 |
| Upside Capture | -120.45 | -22.78 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -27.7% | -2.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.38 | -0.49 | -1.05 | -0.80 | -0.07 | 0.74 |
| Up Beta | -1.99 | -2.23 | -2.51 | -1.85 | -0.62 | 0.85 |
| Down Beta | -0.27 | -0.32 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 0.77 | 1.08 |
| Up Capture | -127% | -105% | -93% | -34% | -12% | 11% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 4 | 12 | 24 | 59 | 117 | 357 |
| Down Capture | 112% | 108% | 19% | -176% | -31% | 83% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 17 | 29 | 39 | 66 | 135 | 392 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LYB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYB | -3.8% | 45.8% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 11.3% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 29.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.8% | 12.6% | 1.23 | -3.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.0% | 27.9% | 0.64 | -1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.6% | 18.9% | 1.16 | 43.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.3% | 13.9% | 0.66 | 10.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.8% | 42.7% | -1.28 | 13.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LYB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYB | -4.5% | 32.9% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.1% | 19.1% | 0.21 | 61.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 41.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.3% | 0.75 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.29 | 39.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 35.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.6% | 53.5% | 0.44 | 17.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LYB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYB | 5.0% | 36.6% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 71.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 54.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.3% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 41.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 47.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.7% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 15.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.5% | -4.1% | -9.1% |
| 1/30/2026 | -1.9% | 7.9% | 17.3% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -6.2% | 8.7% |
| 8/1/2025 | -7.8% | -13.4% | -0.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | 0.3% | -1.6% | -5.3% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.6% | 2.1% | -3.6% |
| 11/1/2024 | -0.3% | 0.6% | -4.0% |
| 8/2/2024 | -3.8% | -2.0% | 2.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | 2.8% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.8% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 3.6% | 7.9% | 21.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -13.4% | -9.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.5% | -4.1% | -9.1% |
| 1/30/2026 | -1.9% | 7.9% | 17.3% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -6.2% | 8.7% |
| 8/1/2025 | -7.8% | -13.4% | -0.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | 0.3% | -1.6% | -5.3% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.6% | 2.1% | -3.6% |
| 11/1/2024 | -0.3% | 0.6% | -4.0% |
| 8/2/2024 | -3.8% | -2.0% | 2.0% |
| 4/26/2024 | 2.5% | -0.9% | -1.1% |
| 2/2/2024 | -1.8% | 0.4% | 8.8% |
| 10/27/2023 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 5.0% |
| 8/4/2023 | -0.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| 4/28/2023 | 3.6% | -1.2% | -3.0% |
| 2/3/2023 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| 10/28/2022 | -5.5% | -5.7% | 2.9% |
| 7/29/2022 | 0.6% | -3.5% | -0.6% |
| 4/29/2022 | -0.1% | 5.0% | 10.3% |
| 1/28/2022 | 0.2% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| 10/29/2021 | -3.7% | -5.5% | -6.3% |
| 7/30/2021 | -1.2% | -3.8% | 3.5% |
| 4/30/2021 | -3.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% |
| 1/29/2021 | -1.7% | 4.2% | 21.9% |
| 10/30/2020 | -5.2% | 2.8% | 19.3% |
| 7/31/2020 | -4.2% | 0.2% | 6.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | 2.8% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.8% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 3.6% | 7.9% | 21.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -13.4% | -9.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/01/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/02/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 European O&P assets operating rate | 0.8 | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.75 for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Intermediates & Derivatives segment operating rate | 0.75 | -10.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.85 for Q1 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Olefins & Polyolefins Americas Operating Rate | 0.85 | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Olefins & Polyolefins EAI Operating Rate | 0.75 | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Intermediates & Derivatives Operating Rate | 0.85 | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 1.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Cash Improvement Plan Target | 1.30 Bil | 18.2% | Raised | Guidance: 1.10 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/31/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Operating Rate - North American O&P | 0.8 | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Operating Rate - European O&P | 0.6 | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Operating Rate - Intermediates & Derivatives | 0.75 | ||||||
| 2025 Cash Improvement Plan Target | 600.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Cash Improvement Plan Target | 1.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.10 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 1.20 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaplan, Jeffrey A | EVP, Chief PC, Leg & Corp Ofc | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 74.16 | 10,000 | 741,573 | 7,169,083 | Form |
| 2 | Ai, Investments Holdings Llc | LLC | Sell | 3112026 | 68.13 | 384,548 | 26,199,298 | 359,108,227 | Form | |
| 3 | Ai, Investments Holdings Llc | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 68.13 | 842 | 57,365 | 52,129,744 | Form | |
| 4 | Foley, Kimberly A | EVP, Global O&P and Refining | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 43.56 | 5,661 | 246,621 | 2,948,801 | Form |
| 5 | Vanacker, Peter Z E | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 53.57 | 20,000 | 1,071,422 | 8,590,179 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaplan, Jeffrey A | EVP, Chief PC, Leg & Corp Ofc | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 74.16 | 10,000 | 741,573 | 7,169,083 | Form |
| 2 | Ai, Investments Holdings Llc | LLC | Sell | 3112026 | 68.13 | 384,548 | 26,199,298 | 359,108,227 | Form | |
| 3 | Ai, Investments Holdings Llc | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 68.13 | 842 | 57,365 | 52,129,744 | Form | |
| 4 | Foley, Kimberly A | EVP, Global O&P and Refining | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 43.56 | 5,661 | 246,621 | 2,948,801 | Form |
| 5 | Vanacker, Peter Z E | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 53.57 | 20,000 | 1,071,422 | 8,590,179 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 14, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercuria Capital Strategies, LLC | $32.8 Mil | 12.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $33.8 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | TRIM -30.7% | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $15.7 Mil | 4.2% | 25 | TRIM -17.8% | 13F |
| Muhlenkamp & Co Inc | $15.1 Mil | 4.0% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $5.2 Mil | 1.3% | 37 | New | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $49.7 Mil | 1.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointState Capital LP | $49.7 Mil | 1.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $33.8 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | TRIM -30.7% | 13F |
| Mercuria Capital Strategies, LLC | $32.8 Mil | 12.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $15.7 Mil | 4.2% | 25 | TRIM -17.8% | 13F |
| Muhlenkamp & Co Inc | $15.1 Mil | 4.0% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $5.2 Mil | 1.3% | 37 | New | 13F |
LyondellBasell Industries — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Specialty Chemicals Resources |
| SpecialChem |
| Chemical Week |
| ICIS |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.