Tearsheet

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $44.09 | Market Cap: $14.2 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $44.09
Market Cap: $14.2 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -104%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 61x
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  Key risks
LYB key risks include [1] significant asset write-downs in its European and Advanced Polymer Solutions segments, Show more.
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -104%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 61x
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
9 Key risks
LYB key risks include [1] significant asset write-downs in its European and Advanced Polymer Solutions segments, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LYB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the stock movement of LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. LyondellBasell reported a significant GAAP net loss in Q3 2025 due to substantial non-cash asset write-downs, primarily on European petrochemical assets, totaling $1.22 billion. Although the company exceeded adjusted earnings and revenue estimates, this large net loss highlighted underlying challenges.

2. Multiple analyst downgrades and reduced price targets occurred during the period, reflecting a deteriorating outlook. BMO Capital downgraded LyondellBasell to "Underperform" on December 15, 2025, and lowered its price target, citing "significant fundamental and financial pressures" and concern that commodity fundamentals were "worse than feared," with no meaningful earnings recovery anticipated for 2026 or 2027. Mizuho also reduced its price target in December 2025 due to compressed margins from a lack of polyethylene pricing power, higher costs, and operational outages. Fermium Research downgraded the stock to "Hold" in early December 2025, noting higher input costs, weak demand, and increasing competition.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LYB Return3%5%-1%21%-17%-36%-32%
Peers Return16%20%-16%28%-18%-21%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LYB Win Rate58%42%67%50%33%42% 
Peers Win Rate68%58%50%42%43%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LYB Max Drawdown-63%-6%-15%0%-19%-39% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-5%-32%-5%-26%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DOW, DD, WLK, EMN, CE. See LYB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLYBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-35.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-63.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven170.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven296 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to APD, PPG, DOW, EMN, HUN


In The Past

LyondellBasell Industries's stock fell -35.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -35.7% loss requires a 55.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)

Better Bets than LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LYB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
LYB_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022LYBLyondellBasell IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.0%32.6%0.0%
LYB_7312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312020LYBLyondellBasell IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
41.0%66.5%-0.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
LYB_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022LYBLyondellBasell IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.0%32.6%0.0%
LYB_7312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312020LYBLyondellBasell IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
41.0%66.5%-0.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for LyondellBasell Industries

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LYBDOWDDWLKEMNCEMedian
NameLyondell.Dow DuPont d.Westlake Eastman .Celanese  
Mkt Price43.7623.0740.6073.9863.9341.5742.66
Mkt Cap14.116.417.09.57.34.611.8
Rev LTM35,15440,91313,51811,4809,0249,71012,499
Op Inc LTM1,5234722,143331,1908561,023
FCF LTM463-1,1201,316-3653951,024429
FCF 3Y Avg2,082903658544511965780
CFO LTM2,3571,5622,0646741,0081,3881,475
CFO 3Y Avg3,8503,6451,9861,5751,1951,4331,780

Growth & Margins

LYBDOWDDWLKEMNCEMedian
NameLyondell.Dow DuPont d.Westlake Eastman .Celanese  
Rev Chg LTM-6.3%-5.3%14.0%-5.3%-3.4%-7.3%-5.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-12.9%-11.3%1.3%-10.3%-5.9%0.7%-8.1%
Rev Chg Q-11.8%-8.3%7.3%-9.0%-10.6%-8.6%-8.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.8%-2.2%1.6%-2.4%-2.8%-2.3%-2.3%
Op Mgn LTM4.3%1.2%15.9%0.3%13.2%8.8%6.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.9%3.5%14.9%6.6%12.6%9.5%8.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.8%-0.5%0.1%-2.3%-1.2%-0.6%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM6.7%3.8%15.3%5.9%11.2%14.3%8.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%8.3%15.9%12.6%12.9%13.9%12.8%
FCF/Rev LTM1.3%-2.7%9.7%-3.2%4.4%10.5%2.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%1.9%5.2%4.1%5.5%9.4%5.2%

Valuation

LYBDOWDDWLKEMNCEMedian
NameLyondell.Dow DuPont d.Westlake Eastman .Celanese  
Mkt Cap14.116.417.09.57.34.611.8
P/S0.40.42.40.90.80.50.6
P/EBIT27.5138.346.3-14.66.7-2.217.1
P/E60.5-14.4-42.3-10.310.3-1.5-5.9
P/CFO6.710.415.814.77.23.38.8
Total Yield12.7%3.7%-0.3%-8.3%12.3%-65.0%1.7%
Dividend Yield11.1%10.6%2.1%1.4%2.6%1.9%2.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.2%1.2%1.9%2.8%5.3%11.8%4.1%
D/E0.81.20.30.50.72.90.8
Net D/E0.70.90.20.30.62.60.7

Returns

LYBDOWDDWLKEMNCEMedian
NameLyondell.Dow DuPont d.Westlake Eastman .Celanese  
1M Rtn3.3%8.0%5.6%26.4%12.7%12.6%10.3%
3M Rtn-15.9%-4.6%32.9%-14.2%-1.9%-7.8%-6.2%
6M Rtn-21.4%-16.7%53.4%5.5%-12.2%-23.5%-14.4%
12M Rtn-36.3%-38.9%29.4%-35.4%-29.9%-39.1%-35.8%
3Y Rtn-33.5%-44.6%58.8%-24.4%-12.7%-57.1%-28.9%
1M Excs Rtn2.6%7.3%4.8%25.7%11.9%11.8%9.6%
3M Excs Rtn-15.9%-4.2%29.3%-13.5%-3.9%-9.9%-7.1%
6M Excs Rtn-33.8%-29.0%41.1%-6.9%-24.6%-35.9%-26.8%
12M Excs Rtn-47.6%-50.4%17.2%-47.5%-42.6%-50.3%-47.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-103.8%-114.5%-14.0%-96.3%-84.6%-127.1%-100.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Olefins and Polyolefins-Americas (O&P-Americas)11,28014,48010,5025,0325,311
Intermediates and Derivatives (I&D)11,08612,9509,9686,1447,642
Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia, International (O&P-EAI)10,47913,45512,6857,8098,764
Refining9,71411,8937,1784,3467,599
Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS)3,6984,2025,1333,9034,846
Technology663693707519565
Other-5,813-7,222   
Total41,10750,45146,17327,75334,727


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity22,418,381
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.4%
Average Daily Volume5,084,743
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.41
Basic Shares Quantity322,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/31/20252.7%-6.2%8.7%
8/1/2025-7.8%-13.4%-0.4%
4/25/20250.3%-1.6%-5.3%
1/31/2025-0.6%2.1%-3.6%
11/1/2024-0.3%0.6%-4.0%
8/2/2024-3.8%-2.0%2.0%
4/26/20242.5%-0.9%-1.1%
2/2/2024-1.8%0.4%8.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81214
# Negative161210
Median Positive1.3%2.6%5.5%
Median Negative-3.6%-3.6%-3.8%
Max Positive3.6%6.2%21.9%
Max Negative-10.1%-20.5%-10.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021