LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $46.14 | Market Cap: $14.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $46.14Market Cap: $14.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LYB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -16% stock movement for LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Q3 2025 Net Loss Driven by Asset Write-downs. LyondellBasell reported a GAAP net loss of $890 million for the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to $1.2 billion in non-cash asset write-downs, which overshadowed better-than-expected adjusted earnings per share and revenue.
2. Weak Q4 2025 Outlook. The company provided a challenging outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, forecasting impacts from year-end seasonality, lower operating rates, increased maintenance activities, and higher energy and feedstock costs in North America. Persistent weak industrial and consumer demand in Europe and pricing pressures in the Advanced Polymer Solutions segment were also noted as contributing factors to an expected challenging Q4.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LYB Return | 3% | 5% | -1% | 21% | -17% | -29% | -25% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 22% | -16% | 7% | -11% | -26% | -16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LYB Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 53% | 43% | 47% | 48% | 28% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LYB Max Drawdown | -63% | -6% | -15% | 0% | -19% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -5% | -31% | -10% | -20% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APD, PPG, DOW, EMN, HUN. See LYB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LYB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 170.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to APD, PPG, DOW, EMN, HUN
In The Past
LyondellBasell Industries's stock fell -35.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -35.7% loss requires a 55.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LYB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 09302022 | LYB | LyondellBasell Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.0% | 32.6% | 0.0% |
| 07312020 | LYB | LyondellBasell Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.0% | 66.5% | -0.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 09302022 | LYB | LyondellBasell Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.0% | 32.6% | 0.0% |
| 07312020 | LYB | LyondellBasell Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.0% | 66.5% | -0.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for LyondellBasell Industries
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Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olefins and Polyolefins-Americas (O&P-Americas) | 11,280 | 14,480 | 10,502 | 5,032 | 5,311 |
| Intermediates and Derivatives (I&D) | 11,086 | 12,950 | 9,968 | 6,144 | 7,642 |
| Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia, International (O&P-EAI) | 10,479 | 13,455 | 12,685 | 7,809 | 8,764 |
| Refining | 9,714 | 11,893 | 7,178 | 4,346 | 7,599 |
| Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS) | 3,698 | 4,202 | 5,133 | 3,903 | 4,846 |
| Technology | 663 | 693 | 707 | 519 | 565 |
| Other | -5,813 | -7,222 | |||
| Total | 41,107 | 50,451 | 46,173 | 27,753 | 34,727 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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