Walmart (WMT)
Market Price (8/30/2026): $103.1 | Market Cap: $820.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Walmart (WMT)
Market Price (8/30/2026): $103.1Market Cap: $820.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 19 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 43 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more. | Key risksWMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology. |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 19 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 43 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Key risksWMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 8/20/2026
Walmart (WMT) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deceleration in U.S. Comparable Sales Growth. Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, slowed to 2.6% in fiscal Q2 2027, a notable decrease from 4.1% in fiscal Q1 2027. This deceleration, coupled with a decline in transaction growth to 1.5%, raised investor concerns regarding the underlying strength of consumer demand.
2. Margin Quality Concerns from Temporary Tariff Refunds. Despite an improvement of 96 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2027 gross margin, reaching 25.4%, a significant portion was attributed to a one-time $2.9 billion tariff refund. Investors questioned the sustainability of these improved margins once this temporary benefit concludes.
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Walmart (WMT) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deceleration in U.S. Comparable Sales Growth. Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, slowed to 2.6% in fiscal Q2 2027, a notable decrease from 4.1% in fiscal Q1 2027. This deceleration, coupled with a decline in transaction growth to 1.5%, raised investor concerns regarding the underlying strength of consumer demand.
2. Margin Quality Concerns from Temporary Tariff Refunds. Despite an improvement of 96 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2027 gross margin, reaching 25.4%, a significant portion was attributed to a one-time $2.9 billion tariff refund. Investors questioned the sustainability of these improved margins once this temporary benefit concludes.
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Updated on 8/20/2026
Walmart (WMT) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deceleration in U.S. Comparable Sales Growth. Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, slowed to 2.6% in fiscal Q2 2027, a notable decrease from 4.1% in fiscal Q1 2027. This deceleration, coupled with a decline in transaction growth to 1.5%, raised investor concerns regarding the underlying strength of consumer demand.
2. Margin Quality Concerns from Temporary Tariff Refunds. Despite an improvement of 96 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2027 gross margin, reaching 25.4%, a significant portion was attributed to a one-time $2.9 billion tariff refund. Investors questioned the sustainability of these improved margins once this temporary benefit concludes.
3. Disappointing Fiscal Q3 2027 Earnings Guidance. Walmart's forecast for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal Q3 2027, projected to be between $0.62 and $0.64, fell below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $0.68. This conservative outlook indicated anticipated near-term challenges for the company.
4. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Pressured Consumers. Ongoing inflationary pressures and elevated fuel costs continued to impact lower-income consumers, a key demographic for Walmart. The company projected over $2 billion in incremental fuel-related costs for fiscal year 2027. Broader U.S. retail sales experienced an unexpected 0.6% drop in July 2026, marking the largest decline in over a year and signaling a challenging consumer spending environment.
5. Significant Insider Selling by Major Shareholder. The Walton Family Holdings Trust, a 10% owner of Walmart, executed substantial insider sales during the period, including a transaction exceeding $535 million on June 18, 2026. This significant selling activity from a major shareholder likely contributed to negative market sentiment.
Show less
Walmart (WMT) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deceleration in U.S. Comparable Sales Growth. Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, slowed to 2.6% in fiscal Q2 2027, a notable decrease from 4.1% in fiscal Q1 2027. This deceleration, coupled with a decline in transaction growth to 1.5%, raised investor concerns regarding the underlying strength of consumer demand.
2. Margin Quality Concerns from Temporary Tariff Refunds. Despite an improvement of 96 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2027 gross margin, reaching 25.4%, a significant portion was attributed to a one-time $2.9 billion tariff refund. Investors questioned the sustainability of these improved margins once this temporary benefit concludes.
3. Disappointing Fiscal Q3 2027 Earnings Guidance. Walmart's forecast for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal Q3 2027, projected to be between $0.62 and $0.64, fell below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $0.68. This conservative outlook indicated anticipated near-term challenges for the company.
4. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Pressured Consumers. Ongoing inflationary pressures and elevated fuel costs continued to impact lower-income consumers, a key demographic for Walmart. The company projected over $2 billion in incremental fuel-related costs for fiscal year 2027. Broader U.S. retail sales experienced an unexpected 0.6% drop in July 2026, marking the largest decline in over a year and signaling a challenging consumer spending environment.
5. Significant Insider Selling by Major Shareholder. The Walton Family Holdings Trust, a 10% owner of Walmart, executed substantial insider sales during the period, including a transaction exceeding $535 million on June 18, 2026. This significant selling activity from a major shareholder likely contributed to negative market sentiment.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.5% change in WMT stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 131.37 | 103.09 | -21.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 713,163 | 735,840 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.1% | 3.0% | -2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 47.8 | 37.1 | -22.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,971 | 7,954 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | -21.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.1% | -13.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.4% | 62.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.9% change in WMT stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.39 | 103.09 | -12.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 703,061 | 735,840 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 3.0% | -7.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.2 | 37.1 | -9.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,974 | 7,954 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | -12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | -1.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.9% | 68.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.3% change in WMT stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.94 | 103.09 | 6.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 685,086 | 735,840 | 7.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.7% | 3.0% | 9.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.3 | 37.1 | -10.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8,011 | 7,954 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 6.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | -2.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 9.3% | 62.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 100.4% change in WMT stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.45 | 103.09 | 100.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 622,021 | 735,840 | 18.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 3.0% | 65.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.8 | 37.1 | 0.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8,082 | 7,954 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 100.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 26.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 21.5% | 59.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WMT Return | 2% | -0% | 13% | 74% | 24% | -7% | 130% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -25% | 29% | 27% | -6% | 17% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WMT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 83% | 67% | 38% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 40% | 63% | 62% | 47% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WMT Max Drawdown | -14% | -26% | -11% | -6% | -22% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -39% | -20% | -18% | -26% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, COST, TGT, KR, HD. See WMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -11.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -10.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Walmart's stock fell -21.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | WMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 79 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Walmart's stock fell -21.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Walmart (WMT)
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is a global retail giant operating a vast network of retail, wholesale, and other units across three primary segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. The company serves customers through diverse physical store formats, including supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores. Complementing its extensive physical footprint, Walmart maintains a significant e-commerce presence with various websites and mobile applications, reaching consumers in 24 countries with approximately 10,500 stores under 46 different banners.
Walmart offers an extensive array of products and services designed to meet a wide range of consumer needs. Its core offerings include a comprehensive selection of groceries and consumables, such as fresh produce, packaged foods, beverages, health and beauty aids, and household essentials. Beyond daily necessities, the company provides health and wellness services through its pharmacies, optical centers, and over-the-counter drug offerings. Walmart also sells a broad range of general merchandise, encompassing home goods, apparel, electronics, toys, and automotive products.
In addition to its product offerings, Walmart provides various services like gasoline stations, tobacco, and financial services, including money transfers, prepaid cards, and bill payment solutions. The company primarily targets a broad global customer base, from individual consumers seeking everyday value and convenience in their shopping to small businesses and members benefiting from bulk purchasing options at Sam's Club. Its multi-format strategy and global reach position it as a comprehensive retailer catering to diverse market segments worldwide.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Walmart (WMT):
Amazon for everyday essentials and general merchandise, but with a massive global footprint of physical stores.
A global combination of Target and Costco.
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- Grocery and Consumables: Sells a broad range of food, beverages, household items, health and beauty aids, and pet supplies.
- Health and Wellness Products: Offers pharmacy services, over-the-counter drugs, medical products, and related health items.
- General Merchandise: Provides home goods, apparel, electronics, outdoor living, and automotive products.
- Optical and Hearing Services: Delivers eye exams, optical products, and hearing aid services.
- Fuel Sales: Operates gasoline stations at many of its retail locations.
- Financial Services: Offers money orders, prepaid cards, money transfers, check cashing, and bill payment solutions.
- Membership Warehouse Operations: Provides exclusive access and bulk purchasing opportunities through Sam's Club.
- E-commerce Retailing: Facilitates online shopping via its various websites and mobile applications.
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Walmart Inc. (WMT) primarily sells its products and services directly to individual consumers. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Budget-Conscious Consumers: Individuals and families who prioritize value and low prices for their everyday needs, including groceries, household essentials, apparel, and electronics. Walmart's "Everyday Low Prices" strategy is designed to appeal to this broad segment.
- Everyday Household Shoppers: Customers who rely on Walmart for their regular and frequent purchases across a wide array of categories, such as groceries, health and beauty aids, pet supplies, and home goods. This group values the extensive selection and availability of products for their households.
- Convenience-Oriented Shoppers: Consumers who appreciate the convenience of Walmart's vast network of physical stores (supercenters, supermarkets, discount stores, and Sam's Club warehouse clubs), as well as its robust e-commerce platforms (walmart.com, samsclub.com) and mobile applications. These customers seek a one-stop-shop experience, easy access, and flexible shopping options like in-store pickup and home delivery.
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- Procter & Gamble (PG)
- PepsiCo (PEP)
- The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Nestlé S.A. (NSRGY)
- Unilever PLC (UL)
- Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)
- The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
- Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)
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John Furner, President and CEO, Walmart Inc.
John Furner became the President and CEO of Walmart Inc. on February 1, 2026. He has been with Walmart for 32 years, previously serving as the President and CEO of Walmart U.S.
John David Rainey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
John David Rainey is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Walmart, responsible for the company's financial operations, corporate strategy, global procurement, and investor relations. He joined Walmart in May 2022. Before Walmart, he was the Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Global Customer Operations at PayPal, and prior to that, he served as Executive Vice President and CFO at United Airlines, having spent a combined 18 years with United and Continental Airlines. He began his professional career at Ernst & Young LLP. Rainey serves on the board of directors and audit committee of Microsoft Corporation, and is a member of the board of directors at PhonePe. He also served on the board of directors for NASDAQ.
Seth Dallaire, Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer, Walmart Inc.
Seth Dallaire was named Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer for Walmart Inc., effective February 1, 2026. In this role, he oversees global enterprise platforms such as Walmart Connect, Walmart+, Walmart Data Ventures, Vizio, and a global Marketplace platform. Previously, he was the EVP and Chief Growth Officer for Walmart U.S., where he helped expand Walmart U.S. beyond traditional retail by building new revenue streams.
David Guggina, President and CEO, Walmart U.S.
David Guggina became President and CEO of Walmart U.S. on February 1, 2026. Prior to this, he served as the Executive Vice President and Chief eCommerce Officer for Walmart U.S., where he was instrumental in building industry-leading delivery capabilities that serve a significant portion of U.S. households. His background is in eCommerce and supply chain operations.
Chris Nicholas, President and CEO, Walmart International
Chris Nicholas was appointed President and CEO of Walmart International, effective February 1, 2026. He previously held the position of President and CEO of Sam's Club U.S.
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Here are the key risks to Walmart's business:
- Intense Competition and E-commerce Dominance: Walmart faces fierce competition across the retail sector, particularly from e-commerce giants like Amazon. This necessitates continuous, substantial investment in its online platforms, technology, and omnichannel capabilities to maintain or grow market share in the rapidly evolving digital retail landscape. The inability to effectively compete in the e-commerce space could significantly impact Walmart's market position, sales, and overall financial performance.
- Margin Compression and High Capital Expenditure: As a mass-market retailer, Walmart operates with characteristically thin margins. To maintain its competitive edge and drive future growth, the company is undertaking significant capital expenditures in areas such as supply chain automation, artificial intelligence for inventory management, and broader technology infrastructure. While these investments are crucial for long-term success, they exert pressure on short-term profitability and require disciplined capital efficiency to ensure positive returns and prevent stagnation of its operating margins.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Disruptions: Given Walmart's immense global scale, with thousands of stores and a vast network of suppliers across many countries, its supply chain is susceptible to various disruptions. Challenges include the complexity of sourcing from diverse vendors, managing vast inventory levels, and external factors like geopolitical events, climate-related risks (such as extreme weather), and natural disasters. These vulnerabilities can lead to increased operational costs, inventory shortages, and an impaired ability to meet consumer demand.
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The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms, such as TikTok Shop, represent a clear emerging threat to traditional retailers like Walmart. These platforms allow consumers to discover and purchase products directly within social media feeds and live streams, effectively bypassing established e-commerce websites and physical retail stores for a wide range of general merchandise. This model creates a new, highly interactive, and often influencer-driven purchasing channel that can capture significant market share, particularly among younger demographics, for categories like apparel, beauty, home goods, and electronics.
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Addressable Markets for Walmart's Main Products and Services
Walmart Inc. operates across various retail, wholesale, and e-commerce segments globally, with significant addressable markets for its diverse product and service offerings.
Grocery and Consumables
- Globally, the food and grocery retail market was valued at approximately USD 11.9 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.0 trillion by 2031. Other estimates place the global market at USD 11,932.5 million in 2023, projected to reach USD 14,781.1 million by 2030.
- In the U.S., the grocery and food market is valued at USD 3 trillion. The U.S. supermarkets and grocery stores market size was $900.6 billion in 2025. The online grocery market in the United States is expected to grow from US$ 183.26 billion in 2024 to reach US$ 715.54 billion by 2033.
Health and Wellness (Pharmacy)
- The global pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 1.35 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 2.06 trillion by 2030. Another report indicates the global pharmacy market size was USD 2,337.97 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 4,569.34 billion by 2034.
- For the U.S., the pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 732.44 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,707.02 billion by 2033. Another source valued the United States pharmacy market at USD 643.4 billion in 2024, expecting it to reach USD 905.8 billion by 2033.
General Merchandise
- The global general merchandise market was valued at approximately USD 2.63 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach around USD 4.28 trillion by 2033. Another source estimates the global General Merchandise Market size at USD 6,297.43 billion in 2026, expected to reach USD 9,011.84 billion by 2035.
- In the U.S., monthly general merchandise store sales were $77.72 billion in January 2026.
Warehouse Clubs (Sam's Club)
- The global Warehouse Clubs Market was valued at USD 667.81 billion in 2025 and is projected to touch USD 997.23 billion by 2033. Another estimate states the global warehouse supermarket and warehouse club market is estimated at $500 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately $850 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. Warehouse Clubs Market is expected to reach over $270 billion in 2025. The market size of the Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters in the US was $758.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $770.4 billion in 2026.
E-commerce
- The global e-commerce market size was valued at USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 83.19 trillion by 2035. Other sources indicate the global e-commerce market size was USD 21.3 trillion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 98.89 trillion by 2033.
- The U.S. e-commerce market revenue is estimated to reach approximately USD 1.45 trillion by 2025. The U.S. e-commerce market size is estimated at USD 1,381.6 billion in 2026, growing to USD 2,279.2 billion by 2031.
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Walmart Inc. (WMT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and evolving market dynamics:
- Accelerated E-commerce and Omnichannel Expansion: Walmart continues to prioritize and achieve substantial growth in its e-commerce segment, with online sales consistently increasing by 20% to 27% annually. This growth is fueled by robust store-fulfilled pickup and delivery services, and the expansion of its online marketplace. The company's digital transformation aims to serve customers more conveniently, driving increased transactions and unit volumes across both stores and digital channels.
- Growth in Higher-Margin Alternative Businesses: Walmart is actively expanding its higher-margin businesses, particularly advertising through Walmart Connect and its membership programs like Walmart+ and Sam's Club. Global advertising income has seen significant increases, with Walmart Connect in the U.S. growing by over 40%. Membership income has also demonstrated strong double-digit growth, contributing significantly to operating profit and diversifying the company's revenue streams.
- Strategic Store Development and Automation: The company has a comprehensive expansion strategy that includes building or converting more than 150 new stores and remodeling 650 existing locations over the next five years. Alongside physical expansion, Walmart is making substantial investments in digital transformation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation within its supply chain and stores. These initiatives aim to automate a significant portion of its stores and fulfillment center operations to enhance efficiency, reduce unit costs, and improve the overall customer experience.
- Increased Market Share in Grocery and Expansion of Health & Wellness Services: Walmart is the largest grocery chain in the U.S., and it continues to gain market share in food and consumables. This is a crucial driver, as grocery sales comprise a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, the company is expanding its diversification into new service areas, such as healthcare, with plans to operate over 75 Walmart Health centers by early 2025, offering primary care, dental, and behavioral health services.
- Attracting and Retaining Diverse Customer Segments: Walmart has successfully attracted an increasing number of high-income customers, with households earning over $100,000 accounting for a substantial portion of its recent sales gains. This demographic shift, coupled with the company's continuous focus on offering "Everyday Low Prices" and value to all consumers, positions Walmart as a unique defensive powerhouse in a dynamic economic environment. The expansion of its marketplace with a focus on "attainable luxury" also helps broaden its appeal.
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Share Repurchases
- Walmart announced a new $30 billion share buyback program in February 2026.
- Annual share buybacks were $4.494 billion in 2025 and $2.779 billion in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Walmart completed a 3-for-1 stock split in early 2024.
- The number of outstanding shares was approximately 7.97 billion as of March 5th, 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Walmart finalized the acquisition of VIZIO in the U.S. in December 2024.
- The company is committing substantial capital for international expansion, including a $6 billion investment for expansion in Mexico.
- Walmart's majority-owned fintech venture, "One," achieved a $2.5 billion valuation in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Walmart's annual capital expenditures were $23.783 billion in 2025, $20.606 billion in 2024, and $16.857 billion in 2023.
- For fiscal year 2026, Walmart projected capital expenditures of approximately $21 billion to $25 billion.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes technology, supply chain automation, physical store upgrades, and customer-facing initiatives, with an estimated $17 billion allocated for streamlining logistics in 2025.
Peer Outperformance in Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
WMT has outperformed 82% of its 11 Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail peers over 5Y. Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail ranks 2nd of 12 industries in Consumer Staples by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail constituents that WMT has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
54%
of 13 industry peers · 7.2% return
3Y
73%
of 11 industry peers · 98.0% return
5Y
82%
of 11 industry peers · 122.9% return
No Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten WMT by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Staples sector, ranked by 5Y. Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail is WMT's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food Distributors | 8 | 3.4% | 31.1% | 64.6% | CHEF 286% · USFD 221% · ANDE 132% |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail ← | 12 | 4.3% | 39.3% | 50.4% | NGVC 187% · VLGEA 140% · WMT 123% |
| Tobacco | 6 | -15.4% | 14.1% | 49.0% | PM 135% · MO 103% · TPB 74% |
| Food Retail | 6 | -13.0% | 67.1% | 32.6% | CASY 280% · SFM 230% · KR 39% |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages | 12 | -3.8% | -13.5% | 15.1% | COKE 418% · BRFH 205% · CCHGY 113% |
| Brewers | 3 | -13.4% | -26.3% | 4.7% | BUD 41% · TAP 5% · SAM -68% |
| Agricultural Products & Services | 11 | -2.5% | -3.3% | -15.4% | BG 74% · ADM 56% · INGR 37% |
| Household Products | 19 | 4.2% | -4.5% | -24.7% | IPAR 81% · ACU 71% · CL 32% |
| Personal Care Products | 4 | -5.8% | -23.8% | -26.6% | ELF 238% · PG 14% · EL -68% |
| Packaged Foods & Meats | 47 | -18.5% | -27.8% | -30.4% | MAMA 550% · LWAY 390% · SENEA 310% |
| Distillers & Vintners | 5 | -45.5% | -59.1% | -72.6% | STZ -32% · BF-B -57% · MGPI -73% |
| Drug Retail | 3 | -38.8% | -83.4% | -92.6% | HITI -65% · PETS -93% · SCNX -99% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Walmart Earnings Notes | 08/19/2026 | |
| Walmart stock vs Dollar Tree stock: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/05/2026 | |
| The Number That Could Test Walmart Stock | 06/13/2026 | |
| The Bear Case: How WMT Behaves During Market Shocks | 05/27/2026 | |
| Walmart Stock Hands $68 Bil Back - Worth a Look? | 05/19/2026 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Walmart Stock | 02/19/2026 | |
| How Walmart Stock Gained 30% | 02/13/2026 | |
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Walmart Stock | 02/07/2026 | |
| Why Walmart Stock May Drop Soon | 01/13/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| What Could Lift Walmart Stock Is Not On Its Shelves | 08/27/2026 | |
| The Questions That Defined WMT’s Earnings Call | 08/25/2026 | |
| The Premium On WMT Stock Vs What Its Peers Deliver | 08/24/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: NDSN, COIN, DE | Losers: MRNA, WMT, ISRG | 08/21/2026 | |
| How Will Walmart Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 08/19/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 214.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 374.0 |
| Rev LTM | 231,382 |
| Op Inc LTM | 16,124 |
| FCF LTM | 6,631 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,464 |
| CFO LTM | 16,890 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,009 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 374.0 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.3 |
| P/EBIT | 17.9 |
| P/E | 29.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 62.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart United States (U.S.) | 485,599 | 465,009 | 443,802 | 422,398 | 393,247 |
| Walmart International | 131,988 | 123,363 | 116,049 | 102,604 | 100,959 |
| Sam's Club United States (U.S.) | 95,540 | 92,561 | 88,230 | 86,253 | 73,556 |
| Corporate and support | 36 | 52 | 44 | 34 | 0 |
| Membership and other income | 4,992 | ||||
| Total | 713,163 | 680,985 | 648,125 | 611,289 | 572,754 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart United States (U.S.) | 25,158 | 23,882 | 22,154 | 20,620 | 21,587 |
| Walmart International | 5,103 | 5,501 | 4,909 | 2,965 | 3,758 |
| Sam's Club United States (U.S.) | 2,442 | 2,404 | 2,192 | 1,964 | 2,259 |
| Corporate and support | -2,878 | -2,439 | -2,243 | -5,121 | -1,662 |
| Total | 29,825 | 29,348 | 27,012 | 20,428 | 25,942 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart United States (U.S.) | 165,627 | 150,006 | 137,782 | 130,659 | 125,044 |
| Walmart International | 86,093 | 80,016 | 86,136 | 86,766 | 91,403 |
| Sam's Club United States (U.S.) | 17,186 | 16,862 | 15,682 | 15,490 | 14,678 |
| Corporate and support | 15,762 | 13,939 | 12,799 | 13,735 | |
| Corporate | 10,282 | ||||
| Total | 284,668 | 260,823 | 252,399 | 243,197 | 244,860 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $103.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 821.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/25/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $111.77 | $118.04 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.8% | -12.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.9% | 26.0% |
| Downside Capture | 2.67 | -30.54 |
| Upside Capture | -50.94 | -15.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -13.9% | -3.4% |
WMT Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.74 | -0.53 | -0.52 | -0.09 | -0.09 | 0.39 |
| Up Beta | -2.61 | -0.77 | -0.11 | 0.91 | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| Down Beta | -0.59 | -0.57 | -0.31 | -0.29 | -0.24 | 0.40 |
| Up Capture | -36% | -52% | -84% | -29% | -7% | 10% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 28 | 65 | 131 | 413 |
| Down Capture | -9% | -33% | -44% | -48% | -54% | 11% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 34 | 59 | 118 | 336 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 8.2% | 25.9% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.0% | 14.4% | 0.31 | 63.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.1% | 12.8% | 1.16 | -3.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 30.9% | 29.0% | 0.92 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 39.9% | 20.3% | 1.54 | -8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.9% | 13.7% | 0.44 | 21.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.5% | 43.6% | -0.61 | -11.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 16.8% | 22.3% | 0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.9% | 13.7% | 0.21 | 59.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 31.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.7% | 18.7% | 0.85 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 19.6% | 0.46 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.0% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 30.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 8.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 17.3% | 22.1% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.3% | 14.9% | 0.35 | 61.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 39.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.3% | 0.61 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 9.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 32.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.1% | 1.04 | 9.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/30/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/20/2026 | -9.2% | -8.5% | |
| 5/21/2026 | -7.3% | -9.1% | -10.4% |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.4% | -0.7% | -4.4% |
| 11/20/2025 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% |
| 8/21/2025 | -4.5% | -6.3% | -0.2% |
| 5/15/2025 | -0.5% | -0.4% | -2.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -6.5% | -7.5% | -17.5% |
| 11/19/2024 | 3.0% | 6.4% | 11.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -3.3% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/20/2026 | -9.2% | -8.5% | |
| 5/21/2026 | -7.3% | -9.1% | -10.4% |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.4% | -0.7% | -4.4% |
| 11/20/2025 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% |
| 8/21/2025 | -4.5% | -6.3% | -0.2% |
| 5/15/2025 | -0.5% | -0.4% | -2.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -6.5% | -7.5% | -17.5% |
| 11/19/2024 | 3.0% | 6.4% | 11.5% |
| 8/15/2024 | 6.6% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| 5/16/2024 | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| 2/20/2024 | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% |
| 11/16/2023 | -8.1% | -8.9% | -9.7% |
| 8/17/2023 | -2.2% | -0.7% | 3.4% |
| 5/18/2023 | 1.3% | -1.3% | 4.0% |
| 2/21/2023 | 0.6% | -3.4% | -3.7% |
| 11/15/2022 | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% |
| 8/16/2022 | 5.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| 5/17/2022 | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
| 2/17/2022 | 4.0% | 0.7% | 9.3% |
| 11/16/2021 | -2.5% | -1.4% | -0.4% |
| 8/17/2021 | -0.0% | -0.2% | -4.1% |
| 5/18/2021 | 2.2% | 2.1% | -1.3% |
| 2/18/2021 | -6.5% | -9.5% | -11.3% |
| 11/17/2020 | -2.0% | -1.0% | -4.2% |
| 8/18/2020 | -0.7% | -3.1% | 0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -3.3% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2026 | 08/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2026 | 08/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/01/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 06/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 03/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/04/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/21/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Net sales (cc) growth | 3.0% | 3.38% | 3.75% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Operating income (cc) growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EPS | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.64 | ||||
| 2027 Net sales (cc) growth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adj. operating income (cc) growth | 7.0% | 7.75% | 8.5% | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 7.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | 2.8 | 2.83 | 2.87 | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.8 for 2027 | |
Prior: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 5/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2027 Net sales (cc) growth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | ||||
| Q2 2027 Operating income (cc) growth | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | ||||
| Q2 2027 Adjusted EPS | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.74 | ||||
| 2027 Net sales (cc) growth | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.5% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adj. operating income (cc) growth | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | ||||
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | 2.75 | 2.8 | 2.85 | 7.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.6 for 2027 | |
Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Net Sales Growth | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | ||||
| Q1 2027 Adjusted EPS | 0.59 | 0.6 | 0.61 | ||||
| 2027 Net Sales Growth | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | -29.3% | -1.4% | Lower New | Actual: 4.95% for 2026 |
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | 2.55 | 2.6 | 2.65 | -0.2% | Lower New | Actual: 2.6 for 2026 | |
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/20/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net sales growth | 4.8% | 4.95% | 5.1% | 16.5% | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 4.25% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted operating income growth | 4.8% | 5.15% | 5.5% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 2.58 | 2.6 | 2.63 | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.57 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 0.04 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/27/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danker, Daniel | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 105.35 | 50,644 | 5,335,345 | 21,246,118 | Form |
| 2 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 106.34 | 2,900 | 308,383 | 60,523,246 | Form |
| 3 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 113.10 | 3,710 | 419,601 | 70,834,364 | Form |
| 4 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 114.14 | 2,900 | 330,998 | 65,292,507 | Form |
| 5 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 109.64 | 3,775 | 413,891 | 69,074,136 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danker, Daniel | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 105.35 | 50,644 | 5,335,345 | 21,246,118 | Form |
| 2 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 106.34 | 2,900 | 308,383 | 60,523,246 | Form |
| 3 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 113.10 | 3,710 | 419,601 | 70,834,364 | Form |
| 4 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 114.14 | 2,900 | 330,998 | 65,292,507 | Form |
| 5 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 109.64 | 3,775 | 413,891 | 69,074,136 | Form |
| 6 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 118.19 | 2,900 | 342,752 | 67,953,957 | Form |
| 7 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 121.09 | 4,424,704 | 535,788,409 | 60,824,317,250 | Form | |
| 8 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 119.83 | 1,385 | 165,965 | 75,946,281 | Form |
| 9 | Guggina, David W | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 119.82 | 11,978 | 1,435,204 | 14,985,578 | Form |
| 10 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 113.32 | 1,771,333 | 200,723,322 | 57,521,912,322 | Form | |
| 11 | McMillon, C Douglas | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 118.63 | 19,416 | 2,303,252 | 495,215,661 | Form | |
| 12 | Watkins, Latriece | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 118.97 | 11,000 | 1,308,670 | 14,300,594 | Form |
| 13 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 119.01 | 207,649 | 24,712,827 | 60,623,514,238 | Form | |
| 14 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 119.05 | 254,178 | 30,260,908 | 60,669,375,276 | Form | |
| 15 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 119.21 | 532,340 | 63,461,675 | 60,780,536,310 | Form | |
| 16 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 120.00 | 1,591,500 | 190,975,799 | 61,430,603,529 | Form | |
| 17 | Furner, John R | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 124.08 | 13,125 | 1,628,574 | 82,022,743 | Form |
| 18 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 123.92 | 2,900 | 359,368 | 71,607,577 | Form |
| 19 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 133.77 | 1,250 | 167,212 | 85,023,213 | Form |
| 20 | McMillon, C Douglas | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 132.21 | 19,416 | 2,566,987 | 554,487,621 | Form | |
| 21 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 124.72 | 2,900 | 361,696 | 74,335,673 | Form |
| 22 | Furner, John R | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 124.84 | 13,125 | 1,638,530 | 84,162,702 | Form |
| 23 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 124.63 | 1,335 | 166,381 | 79,369,685 | Form |
| 24 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 122.96 | 2,979,763 | 366,404,040 | 63,145,100,897 | Form | |
| 25 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 122.33 | 299,237 | 36,604,974 | 63,182,773,151 | Form | |
| 26 | Furner, John R | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 121.96 | 13,125 | 1,600,718 | 83,821,173 | Form |
| 27 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 126.28 | 1,325 | 167,328 | 80,592,250 | Form |
| 28 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 123.82 | 1,389,792 | 172,079,239 | 63,993,150,036 | Form | |
| 29 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 124.23 | 1,389,794 | 172,655,055 | 64,379,848,043 | Form | |
| 30 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 128.00 | 67,796 | 8,677,990 | 66,511,888,803 | Form | |
| 31 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 128.16 | 682,539 | 87,476,860 | 66,739,535,868 | Form | |
| 32 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 128.10 | 314,572 | 40,297,994 | 66,795,884,051 | Form | |
| 33 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 127.79 | 20,000 | 2,555,714 | 62,201,465 | Form |
| 34 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 127.75 | 1,701,466 | 217,366,533 | 66,761,022,031 | Form | |
| 35 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 127.12 | 21,770 | 2,767,376 | 66,646,151,456 | Form | |
| 36 | McMillon, C Douglas | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 126.71 | 19,416 | 2,460,118 | 509,763,550 | Form | |
| 37 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 127.17 | 65,537 | 8,334,406 | 66,714,820,324 | Form | |
| 38 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 127.01 | 3,734 | 474,272 | 66,640,990,981 | Form | |
| 39 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 125.86 | 1,200,000 | 151,026,483 | 66,033,366,519 | Form | |
| 40 | Watkins, Latriece | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 121.46 | 10,000 | 1,214,630 | 13,153,740 | Form |
| 41 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 122.00 | 34,082 | 4,158,004 | 65,082,832 | Form |
| 42 | Furner, John R | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 129.10 | 13,125 | 1,694,479 | 76,310,749 | Form |
| 43 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 133.21 | 1,255 | 167,179 | 78,104,824 | Form |
| 44 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 122.27 | 20,000 | 2,445,353 | 61,960,838 | Form |
| 45 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 119.17 | 19,416 | 2,313,875 | 509,449,955 | Form |
| 46 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 120.00 | 1,388 | 166,560 | 77,477,080 | Form |
| 47 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 119.99 | 13,125 | 1,574,866 | 87,251,179 | Form |
| 48 | Danker, Daniel | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1152026 | 120.19 | 4,365 | 524,629 | 28,675,236 | Form |
| 49 | Morris, Donna | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1152026 | 120.19 | 9,384 | 1,127,863 | 64,459,314 | Form |
| 50 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 111.83 | 19,416 | 2,171,217 | 482,567,288 | Form |
| 51 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 114.26 | 872,000 | 99,638,227 | 60,098,814,172 | Form | |
| 52 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 115.21 | 4,000 | 460,840 | 118,833,935 | Form |
| 53 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 114.91 | 13,125 | 1,508,202 | 84,326,068 | Form |
| 54 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 115.31 | 261,000 | 30,095,086 | 60,808,154,056 | Form | |
| 55 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 117.00 | 1,425 | 166,725 | 75,039,431 | Form |
| 56 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 111.23 | 2,200 | 244,706 | 68,664,280 | Form |
| 57 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 109.57 | 19,416 | 2,127,330 | 474,940,061 | Form |
| 58 | Chojnowski, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 106.65 | 7,000 | 746,550 | 14,535,222 | Form |
| 59 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 105.96 | 4,145,744 | 439,271,765 | 56,258,172,976 | Form | |
| 60 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 104.75 | 13,125 | 1,374,908 | 92,164,981 | Form |
| 61 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 101.63 | 4,000 | 406,520 | 105,741,445 | Form |
| 62 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 102.58 | 1,630 | 167,205 | 65,937,158 | Form |
| 63 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 101.18 | 2,200 | 222,602 | 62,684,420 | Form |
| 64 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10242025 | 107.18 | 19,416 | 2,080,951 | 466,666,408 | Form |
| 65 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10222025 | 107.75 | 4,000 | 431,000 | 112,540,030 | Form |
| 66 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 107.78 | 13,125 | 1,414,592 | 96,239,649 | Form |
| 67 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 107.46 | 1,550 | 166,563 | 69,249,122 | Form |
| 68 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 101.33 | 2,200 | 222,933 | 63,000,616 | Form |
| 69 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9262025 | 103.21 | 19,416 | 2,003,987 | 451,410,753 | Form |
| 70 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 103.74 | 13,125 | 1,361,624 | 93,997,628 | Form |
| 71 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9192025 | 103.83 | 4,000 | 415,320 | 108,861,086 | Form |
| 72 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 103.45 | 2,389,000 | 247,148,739 | 55,415,857,897 | Form | |
| 73 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 103.71 | 1,610 | 166,973 | 66,993,306 | Form |
| 74 | Kumar, Suresh | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 103.47 | 30,000 | 3,103,968 | 184,913,761 | Form |
| 75 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 97.37 | 2,200 | 214,221 | 60,752,773 | Form |
| 76 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 95.97 | 19,416 | 1,863,447 | 421,615,823 | Form |
| 77 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 96.63 | 1,371,230 | 132,498,527 | 52,771,002,654 | Form | |
| 78 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 96.22 | 767,418 | 73,842,725 | 52,681,654,403 | Form | |
| 79 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 96.09 | 398,852 | 38,325,888 | 52,683,235,558 | Form | |
| 80 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 96.05 | 688,586 | 66,138,134 | 52,852,580,272 | Form | |
| 81 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 96.69 | 317,287 | 30,679,558 | 53,311,738,831 | Form | |
| 82 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 97.41 | 565,627 | 55,095,613 | 53,735,682,867 | Form | |
| 83 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 98.55 | 13,125 | 1,293,508 | 90,588,790 | Form |
| 84 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 100.96 | 4,000 | 403,840 | 106,255,860 | Form |
| 85 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 100.38 | 1,655 | 166,124 | 65,001,773 | Form |
| 86 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 98.30 | 2,200 | 216,258 | 61,546,871 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 30, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narus Financial Partners, LLC | $167.5 Mil | 43.9% | 163 | Hold | 13F |
| Heritage Oak Wealth Advisors LLC | $135.3 Mil | 43.0% | 73 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Hexagon Capital Partners LLC | $273.6 Mil | 40.0% | 252 | Hold | 13F |
| Churchill Financial Advisors, LLC | $124.4 Mil | 26.1% | 123 | ADD +59.3% | 13F |
| Uniting Wealth Partners, LLC | $99.7 Mil | 21.2% | 205 | Hold | 13F |
| Legacy Capital Wealth Partners, LLC | $61.0 Mil | 12.6% | 385 | TRIM -6.1% | 13F |
| New Wave Wealth Advisors LLC | $35.0 Mil | 12.2% | 186 | Hold | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $36.9 Mil | 9.0% | 24 | TRIM -12.0% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $31.2 Mil | 6.3% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $32.0 Mil | 6.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $81.0 Mil | 5.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $243.4 Mil | 4.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $77.1 Mil | 4.7% | 44 | TRIM -14.6% | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $11.9 Mil | 4.2% | 35 | ADD +25.5% | 13F |
| Joho Capital LLC | $14.9 Mil | 4.0% | 10 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $20.9 Mil | 3.4% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $1.0 Bil | 3.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| WS Management LLLP | $15.3 Mil | 2.0% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Legacy CG, LLC | $6.9 Mil | 1.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $81.0 Mil | 5.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Joho Capital LLC | $14.9 Mil | 4.0% | 10 | New | 13F |
| Churchill Financial Advisors, LLC | $124.4 Mil | 26.1% | 123 | ADD +59.3% | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $11.9 Mil | 4.2% | 35 | ADD +25.5% | 13F |
| Heritage Oak Wealth Advisors LLC | $135.3 Mil | 43.0% | 73 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cypress Funds LLC | $36.2 Mil | 6.0% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $35.6 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $17.0 Mil | 1.6% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $77.1 Mil | 4.7% | 44 | TRIM -14.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $36.9 Mil | 9.0% | 24 | TRIM -12.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Legacy Capital Wealth Partners, LLC | $61.0 Mil | 12.6% | 385 | TRIM -6.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $1.0 Bil | 3.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Hexagon Capital Partners LLC | $273.6 Mil | 40.0% | 252 | Hold | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $243.4 Mil | 4.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Narus Financial Partners, LLC | $167.5 Mil | 43.9% | 163 | Hold | 13F |
| Heritage Oak Wealth Advisors LLC | $135.3 Mil | 43.0% | 73 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Churchill Financial Advisors, LLC | $124.4 Mil | 26.1% | 123 | ADD +59.3% | 13F |
| Uniting Wealth Partners, LLC | $99.7 Mil | 21.2% | 205 | Hold | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $81.0 Mil | 5.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $77.1 Mil | 4.7% | 44 | TRIM -14.6% | 13F |
| Legacy Capital Wealth Partners, LLC | $61.0 Mil | 12.6% | 385 | TRIM -6.1% | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $36.9 Mil | 9.0% | 24 | TRIM -12.0% | 13F |
| New Wave Wealth Advisors LLC | $35.0 Mil | 12.2% | 186 | Hold | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $32.0 Mil | 6.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $31.2 Mil | 6.3% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $20.9 Mil | 3.4% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| WS Management LLLP | $15.3 Mil | 2.0% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Joho Capital LLC | $14.9 Mil | 4.0% | 10 | New | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $11.9 Mil | 4.2% | 35 | ADD +25.5% | 13F |
| Legacy CG, LLC | $6.9 Mil | 1.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
WMT Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on the successful scaling of high-margin businesses like advertising, which grew 38% last quarter. This is structurally improving profitability, providing a buffer against decelerating core sales. The primary uncertainty is whether current price investments can stabilize core transaction growth, with Q3 results providing the next major data point.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Structurally Protected TransactionalRevenue = (Number of Transactions) x (Average Ticket Size) + Membership Fees The scaling of high-margin businesses, including Advertising, Marketplace, and Membership, which are growing faster than core retail sales and improving the overall profit mix.
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INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful pivot is underway, with new, high-margin businesses driving profit growth faster than overall sales.
Mechanism:
As advertising (38% growth) and marketplace (52% growth) become a larger part of the mix, they lift the company's overall operating margin, leading to higher earnings.
Supporting Evidence:
- Global advertising business grew 38% in Q2 FY27.
- Walmart U.S. Marketplace sales grew 52% in Q2 FY27.
- Full-year operating income growth is guided to 7.0% to 8.5%.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded by 0.2 percentage points.
- Global membership fee revenue grew 17% in the latest quarter.
PRIMARY RISK
Walmart's core U.S. comparable sales growth has slowed for three consecutive quarters, raising concerns that weakness in the primary business could overwhelm gains from newer initiatives.
Mechanism:
A failure to achieve guided Q3 sales growth of 3.0% to 3.75% would confirm the negative trend.
Supporting Evidence:
- U.S. comparable sales growth slowed to 3.3% from 4.6% two quarters ago.
- Q3 sales growth is guided to decelerate further to 3.0% to 3.75%.
- Inventory grew 6.7% in Q2, outpacing revenue growth of 5.9%.
- Operating expenses grew 6.8%, also faster than revenue at 6.2%.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. Comparable Sales Growth | 3.3% for the three months ended July 31, 2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year growth rate for Walmart U.S. comparable sales has decelerated for three consecutive quarters. Management attributes part of the latest quarter's slowdown to a 125 basis point headwind from new "maximum fair pricing" regulations on certain drugs. Excluding the health and wellness category, management notes that core category comps have been consistent in the 3% to 4% range. |
| Global eCommerce Sales Growth | 23% for Q2 FY27 - Stable | Growth remains robust and has been above 20% for ten consecutive quarters in the U.S. segment. The growth is led by store-fulfilled pickup & delivery and marketplace sales. |
| Global Advertising Business Growth | 38% (Q2 FY2027) | Indicates the growth of a key high-margin revenue stream. Strong growth demonstrates the company's ability to monetize its vast customer traffic and data, contributing to improved profitability. |
| Membership Fee Revenue Growth | 17% (Q2 FY2027) | Reflects the health and growth of recurring revenue streams from Sam's Club and Walmart+. Strong growth indicates a growing base of loyal, high-spending customers. |
Core Investment Debate
Platform Profits vs. Retail Price Wars
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the rapid scaling of high-margin advertising and marketplace businesses will structurally improve profitability, more than offsetting any pressure from reinvesting in lower prices to gain market share in the core retail segment.
CORE TENSION
Can 38% advertising growth offset decelerating U.S. comps, a trend the market punished with a -9% stock drop?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management raised full-year guidance for operating income to grow faster than sales, indicating confidence that the positive mix shift is winning.
BEAR VIEW
Bears fear the heavy price investments, funded by a one-time tariff refund, are masking a persistent slowdown in the core U.S. business and will lead to lower margins once the one-time benefit is gone.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
September 8, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: The company is scheduled to pay its third quarter fiscal 2027 dividend of $0.2475 per share. |
11/17/2026 | Negative Peer Read-Across Watch: Peers' comparable sales, commentary on consumer spending trends, and any guidance revisions for the holiday quarter. |
11/19/2026 | Guidance Miss on Price Investment Watch: Q3 operating income relative to guidance and management commentary on price investment ROI and market share. |
11/19/2026 | Slowing Revenue Growth Confirmation Watch: Reported Q3 revenue growth versus guidance and the Q4 sales outlook, particularly for the Walmart U.S. segment. |
11/19/2026 | Next Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
November 23, 2026 | Asda Litigation Headlines Watch: News flow from the UK Employment Tribunal regarding the hearing and any commentary on potential liability size. |
November 23, 2026 | Asda Legal Hearing Watch: A hearing on the third phase of the Asda Equal Value Claims is scheduled to begin. |
12/2/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Kroger (KR) is scheduled to report earnings. |
12/9/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Costco Wholesale (COST) is scheduled to report earnings. |
January 4, 2027 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: The company is scheduled to pay its fourth quarter fiscal 2027 dividend of $0.2475 per share. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-20 | Q2 Earnings and Negative Reaction Details: Walmart reported Q2 revenue growth of 5.9% and raised full-year guidance. The company also disclosed receiving $2.9 billion in tariff refunds. The stock reacted negatively, falling -9.0%. | -9.1% $114.03 -> $103.70 |
2026-07-06 | Summer Price Reduction Initiative Details: The company announced thousands of lower prices through its signature Rollbacks program to help customers save during the summer season. | -0.3% $111.57 -> $111.27 |
2026-06-22 | Medicare Weight Management Support Details: Walmart and Sam's Club launched a nationwide effort to help Medicare beneficiaries understand new prescription drug coverage options for weight management. | +1.9% $116.90 -> $119.14 |
2026-05-21 | Stock Falls on Q1 Report Details: The stock fell after the Q1 earnings report on May 21, 2026, which included a softer-than-expected profit outlook. The two-day stock reaction was -8.0%. | -8.1% $130.54 -> $119.98 |
2026-03-24 | Board of Directors Investigation Details: A national law firm advised shareholders of an investigation into the Board for potential breaches of fiduciary duties. | +1.9% $120.20 -> $122.53 |
2026-02-26 | FTC Settlement on Spark Driver Details: The company agreed to a $100 million settlement regarding investigations into payment and operational practices of its Spark Driver platform. | +1.7% $124.96 -> $127.14 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: WMT trades at roughly 22% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 12% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market), around the 26th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AMZN - Amazon.com
Digital-Native LeaderAmazon offers exposure to the high-margin cloud computing market and has a more mature digital advertising and marketplace business, reflected in its 12.1% operating margin versus Walmart's 4.4%.
Core Thesis: Investing in Amazon is a bet on continued dominance in e-commerce and the hyper-growth of its cloud infrastructure business.
COST - Costco Wholesale
Membership Model Pure-PlayCostco has a simpler, highly focused business model built on membership loyalty, which delivers higher revenue growth (9.2%) and superior free-cash-flow margins (3.0%) compared to Walmart.
Core Thesis: Costco's value proposition is centered on a curated product selection and membership fee income, creating a highly loyal customer base.
How Is The Market Pricing WMT?
Walmart is an omnichannel retail giant successfully leveraging its massive physical store footprint as a logistics network to power a high-growth, higher-margin digital ecosystem.
Walmart is in the midst of a business model transformation, evolving from a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer into a tech-powered platform. Its vast network of stores acts as forward-deployed fulfillment centers, enabling rapid delivery and supporting the growth of its eCommerce, advertising, and marketplace businesses. This strategic shift is improving the company's overall profitability and creating a more durable, resilient model that can gain market share in any economic environment.
What will confirm the thesis
Continued double-digit growth in eCommerce and advertising, sustained market share gains in grocery, and operating margin expansion.
What will damage the thesis
A stall in eCommerce growth, significant market share losses to competitors like Amazon or Target, or an inability to maintain operating leverage as digital sales grow.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Short-term fluctuations in in-store-only comparable sales, as management is increasingly channel-agnostic and focused on total segment growth powered by an integrated omnichannel model.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing recognition of the success and profitability of Walmart's platform strategy, as evidenced by the strong Q2 FY27 results and subsequent raised full-year guidance.
What WMT Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2027
Walmart International
$137.4B TTM (19% of Total) · 4% MarginWhat It Is
This segment consists of operations in 18 countries outside of the U.S., including through wholly-owned subsidiaries in Canada, Chile, and China, and majority-owned subsidiaries in India (Flipkart) and Mexico. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, and eCommerce sites, selling a broad scope of merchandise to international consumers.
Who Pays & How
International consumers pay for merchandise, attracted by a combination of low prices and convenience, tailored to local markets with both global and market-specific private brands.
The merchandising strategy is similar to the U.S., focusing on value through a mix of brand name and private label merchandise.
Competition
Competes with a wide range of local and global retailers in each of its 18 countries of operation.
Leverages its global ecosystem, deep local expertise, and ability to scale platforms and innovations across markets.
WMT Evolution: Price Return by Era
1962-1991 · Brick-and-Mortar Foundation
The company was founded on the operation of variety and discount stores, completing its IPO in 1970. It expanded its physical footprint by opening the first Sam's Club in 1983 and the first supercenter in 1988, establishing its dominance in physical retail.
1991-2018 · International and Early Digital Expansion
Walmart began its international expansion with a joint venture in Mexico in 1991. It launched its first eCommerce initiatives in 1996 with walmart.com and samsclub.com, followed by its 'Site-to-Store' service in 2007, marking the initial steps toward an omnichannel model.
2018-Present · Omnichannel and Platform Acceleration
+257%
The company accelerated its digital transformation with the 2018 acquisition of a majority stake in India's Flipkart. This era is defined by heavy investment in supply chain automation, AI, and scaling high-margin platform businesses like Marketplace, Advertising, and Membership, leveraging its store network as a key competitive advantage for fulfillment and delivery.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-3
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-10 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Downtrend · Death Cross
▾
2
Momentum
Deteriorating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Underperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Distribution
▾
5
Volatility
Expanded
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Falling
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Consistent Pressure
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Walmart — Investor Video Playlist
Investor / Analyst
Crypto Rallies & Tech Slumps, WMT Falls on Earnings Beat & Raise
Investor / Analyst
Walmart FY2027 Q2 Earnings Release
Investor / Analyst
FY2027 Q1 Earnings Release
Investor / Analyst
Analyzing Profit Zones For Walmart, Quanta Services And Guardant Health Ahead Of Earnings | IBD
Investor / Analyst
Walmart | Earnings Call Q2 2025 | $WMT | 🔴 WATCH LIVE
Products & Services
Introducing the Walmart Discovered Pass on Roblox
Products & Services
Introducing the Walmart Discovered AR Experience
Products & Services
Explore newly launched: Walmart Realm
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail Resources |
| Mass Market Retailers |
| Store Brands |
| Retail Dive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 8/29/2026