Altria (MO)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $76.22 | Market Cap: $126.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco
Altria (MO)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $76.22Market Cap: $126.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Tobacco
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 5.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 7.1% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.1 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Product Evolution. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Alternative Nicotine Products. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.4%, Dist 3Y High is -2.4% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.1% Key risksMO key risks include [1] an accelerating decline in its core combustible cigarette volumes, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 5.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.1 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Product Evolution. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Alternative Nicotine Products. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.4%, Dist 3Y High is -2.4% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.1% |
| Key risksMO key risks include [1] an accelerating decline in its core combustible cigarette volumes, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Altria (MO) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Altria reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.52 for fiscal Q3 2026, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.51, and revenues net of excise taxes rose 3.6% to $5.44 billion, exceeding forecasts of $5.31 billion. This positive performance led the company to raise its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $5.66 to $5.74, representing a growth rate of 4.5% to 6.0% from its 2025 base of $5.42.
2. Enhanced Shareholder Returns through Dividend Increase and Expanded Share Repurchase Program.
In August 2026, Altria increased its regular quarterly dividend by 4.7% to $1.11 per share, marking the 61st dividend increase in 57 years, aligning with its progressive dividend goal. Furthermore, the board authorized a $1 billion expansion of the existing share repurchase program, which is set to expire on December 31, 2027. These actions demonstrate a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders and signal management's confidence in the company's financial health and future cash generation.
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Altria (MO) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Altria reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.52 for fiscal Q3 2026, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.51, and revenues net of excise taxes rose 3.6% to $5.44 billion, exceeding forecasts of $5.31 billion. This positive performance led the company to raise its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $5.66 to $5.74, representing a growth rate of 4.5% to 6.0% from its 2025 base of $5.42.
2. Enhanced Shareholder Returns through Dividend Increase and Expanded Share Repurchase Program.
In August 2026, Altria increased its regular quarterly dividend by 4.7% to $1.11 per share, marking the 61st dividend increase in 57 years, aligning with its progressive dividend goal. Furthermore, the board authorized a $1 billion expansion of the existing share repurchase program, which is set to expire on December 31, 2027. These actions demonstrate a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders and signal management's confidence in the company's financial health and future cash generation.
3. Resilience in Smokeable Products and Growth in Smoke-Free Portfolio.
Altria's smokeable products segment showed resilience, with adjusted operating companies income growing by 3.9% in fiscal Q3 2026 due to effective pricing strategies and a diverse product portfolio. Crucially, the company's smoke-free initiatives, particularly the on! nicotine pouch brand, continued to gain momentum with shipments increasing 13.3% to 47.8 million cans in fiscal Q3 2026, and plans for nationwide expansion of on! PLUS with new flavor extensions. This dual approach of maximizing traditional tobacco profitability while expanding into smoke-free alternatives contributed to the positive stock trend.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.2% change in MO stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.26 | 76.12 | 13.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,444 | 20,634 | 0.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 39.0% | 39.3% | 0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.1 | 15.7 | 11.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,670 | 1,669 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MO | 13.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | -19.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.9% | 65.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.0% change in MO stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.45 | 76.12 | 8.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,378 | 20,634 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 39.5% | 39.3% | -0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.6 | 15.7 | 6.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,673 | 1,669 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MO | 8.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -35.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 7.6% | 65.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 44.1% change in MO stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 56.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 52.81 | 76.12 | 44.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,166 | 20,634 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 44.0% | 39.3% | -10.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.0 | 15.7 | 56.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,680 | 1,669 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 44.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MO | 44.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | -25.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 20.5% | 63.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 136.7% change in MO stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 140.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.16 | 76.12 | 136.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,561 | 20,634 | 0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 42.6% | 39.3% | -7.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.5 | 15.7 | 140.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,773 | 1,669 | 6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 136.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MO | 136.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | -7.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 43.0% | 56.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MO Return | 24% | 4% | -4% | 41% | 18% | 38% | 187% |
| Peers Return | -8% | -19% | -6% | 22% | 2% | -12% | -23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MO Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 75% | 50% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 43% | 55% | 53% | 50% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MO Max Drawdown | -16% | -26% | -14% | -9% | -15% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -37% | -32% | -30% | -37% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PM, TPB, STZ, TAP, CGC. See MO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -11.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 819 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 414.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2246 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Altria's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 819 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 414.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2246 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Altria's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Altria (MO)
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is a prominent company within the United States tobacco industry, specializing in the manufacturing and sale of a wide range of smokeable and oral tobacco products. The company's operations are exclusively focused on the U.S. domestic market, where it provides various tobacco and nicotine offerings to adult consumers.
Altria's main product portfolio includes leading cigarette brands, prominently featuring Marlboro. Beyond cigarettes, the company also produces cigars and pipe tobacco primarily under the Black & Mild brand. In the oral tobacco segment, Altria offers moist smokeless tobacco products through popular brands like Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky, alongside its on! oral nicotine pouches. The company distributes its products primarily to wholesalers, including various distributors, and large retail organizations such as chain stores throughout the United States.
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1. Coca-Cola for tobacco products
2. Anheuser-Busch for tobacco products
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- Cigarettes: Primarily sold under the Marlboro brand.
- Cigars and Pipe Tobacco: Offered principally under the Black & Mild brand.
- Moist Smokeless Tobacco: Products include Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands.
- Oral Nicotine Pouches: Provided under the on! brand.
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Altria (MO) sells its tobacco products primarily to other businesses, specifically wholesalers/distributors and large retail organizations (chain stores), rather than directly to individual consumers. Given the widespread distribution of tobacco products, Altria serves a broad network of such business customers across the United States. While Altria typically does not disclose a specific list of individual major customers due to the broad nature of its distribution, prominent examples of types of companies that serve as Altria's customers include:
- Wholesalers and Distributors: These companies purchase products directly from Altria and then distribute them to various smaller retail outlets (e.g., convenience stores, gas stations, independent grocers).
- Performance Food Group Company (NYSE: PFGC) - A major food service distributor whose subsidiaries, such as Core-Mark, are significant distributors of tobacco products to convenience stores and other retailers.
- Large Retail Organizations and Chain Stores: These major retailers often purchase directly from Altria due to their scale and broad reach.
- Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) - The largest retail corporation in the United States, operating numerous stores that sell tobacco products.
- The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) - One of the largest grocery retailers in the United States, selling tobacco products in many of its supermarket chains.
- Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) - A major drugstore chain in the U.S. that sells tobacco products in many of its locations.
- Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) - A large discount retailer with a broad footprint across the U.S., many of its stores sell tobacco products.
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William F. Gifford, Jr. Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Gifford was appointed Chief Executive Officer in April 2020. He has over 30 years of experience with Altria and its subsidiaries, having joined Philip Morris USA in 1994. Prior to his current role, he served as Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer. His career at Altria has included various senior leadership positions in Strategy & Business Development, Finance, Marketing Information & Consumer Research, and he also served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Philip Morris USA. Before joining Philip Morris USA, he worked at the public accounting firm Coopers & Lybrand. Mr. Gifford has also served on the Board of Directors of Anheuser-Busch InBev. He is scheduled to retire as CEO effective May 14, 2026.
Salvatore T. Mancuso Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Mancuso has served as Altria's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since 2020. He has a career spanning over 30 years with Altria, having joined Philip Morris USA in 1990. Throughout his tenure, he has held various leadership roles in Finance, Compliance, and Strategy & Business Development. Before becoming CFO, he was Senior Vice President of Finance and Procurement, overseeing critical functions such as Treasury, Tax, Audit, Financial Planning & Analysis, Controller, Procurement, and Information Services. Mr. Mancuso is also a board designee to Anheuser-Busch InBev. Effective May 14, 2026, he will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer of Altria.
Heather A. Newman Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy & Growth Officer
Ms. Newman has served as Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy & Growth Officer since March 2022. She joined the Altria family of companies in 1999 and previously held the position of Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy. In her current role, she is responsible for corporate strategy and development, international and new growth ventures, and the digital and transformation organization. Ms. Newman has also served as President and CEO of Philip Morris USA. She is slated to become Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective May 14, 2026.
Jody L. Begley Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Begley is the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and also serves as the President of Altria Group's Smokable Products segment. He joined Altria in 1995 and has extensive experience across various functions, including sales, operations, brand management, and strategy within the organization.
Murray S. Garnick Executive Vice President, General Counsel
Mr. Garnick holds the position of Executive Vice President, General Counsel for Altria Group, Inc.
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Key Risks to Altria (MO) Business
- Declining cigarette volumes and market share: Altria faces a significant risk from the continuous decline in domestic cigarette shipment volumes, which directly impacts its core smokeable products segment. This decline is driven by broader industry trends and is further exacerbated by the growth of illicit e-vapor products in the market.
- Evolving regulatory environment and product restrictions: The company is subject to increasing regulatory scrutiny and potential restrictions from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Key regulatory risks include potential flavor bans for cigarettes (such as menthol) and increased restrictions on e-vapor products, which could significantly impact Altria's product portfolio and revenue streams. Additionally, the company faces ongoing litigation and investigations related to its products, including its NJOY e-vapor devices.
- Intense competition in the alternative nicotine market: While Altria is diversifying into smoke-free products like oral nicotine pouches (on!) and e-vapor (NJOY), it faces aggressive competition in these emerging categories. The company's "on!" pouches have lost market share to competitors like Philip Morris International's Zyn, and its NJOY e-vapor products have faced challenges including patent infringement rulings and declining shipment volumes.
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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies and market dynamics:
- Continued Pricing Power in Traditional Smokeable Products: Despite declining volumes in the traditional cigarette market, Altria has demonstrated consistent pricing power, particularly with its premium Marlboro brand. This ability to implement price increases helps to offset volume declines and sustain revenue in its core smokeable products segment.
- Growth and Expansion of the on! Oral Nicotine Pouch Brand: The on! oral nicotine pouch brand has shown positive shipment volume growth and retail price increases. Altria is actively expanding this smoke-free portfolio with new product introductions, such as on! Plus, which has garnered high purchase intent scores. Regulatory advancements, including the FDA's pilot program to streamline the review process for oral nicotine pouches, could further accelerate market penetration for Altria's products in this category.
- Introduction and Market Penetration of Heated Tobacco Products: Altria is strategically moving into the heated tobacco segment, as evidenced by its Horizon subsidiary filing Pre-Market Tobacco Applications (PMTA) and Modified Risk Tobacco Product Applications (MRTPA) for its Plume and Marlboro heated tobacco sticks. This initiative represents an important avenue for future revenue growth as the company expands its smoke-free offerings.
- Benefiting from Increased Enforcement Against Illicit E-Vapor Products: Stricter regulatory enforcement against illicit and unregulated e-vapor products is anticipated to reduce competition in the broader nicotine market. This shift could direct consumers toward Altria's compliant, regulated smoke-free alternatives, thereby contributing to its revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2024, Altria completed a $3.4 billion share repurchase program, repurchasing 73.5 million shares. A new $1 billion share repurchase program was subsequently authorized, with an expectation for completion by December 31, 2025.
- By October 2025, Altria's Board expanded its ongoing share repurchase program from $1 billion to $2 billion, which is set to expire on December 31, 2026.
- For the full year 2025, Altria repurchased over 17 million shares for $1 billion under its then-$2 billion share repurchase program, with $1 billion remaining under the authorization at the close of the fourth quarter.
Share Issuance
- Altria's shares outstanding decreased by 2.04% in 2025 to 1.683 billion from 1.718 billion in 2024.
- Shares outstanding declined by 3.32% in 2024 (1.718 billion from 1.777 billion in 2023) and by 1.5% in 2023 (1.777 billion from 2022).
Outbound Investments
- In 2023, Altria acquired the vaping company Njoy Holdings for $2.75 billion as part of its strategy to grow in smoke-free products.
- In October 2025, Altria formed a strategic collaboration with KT&G aimed at advancing international modern oral and U.S. non-nicotine growth, as well as optimizing traditional tobacco operations. Additionally, Altria agreed to acquire an ownership interest in Another Snus Factory, which produces the LOOP Nicotine Pouch brand.
- The company continues to hold an 8% interest in Anheuser-Busch InBev and a 41% stake in cannabis manufacturer Cronos, though earlier investments in Juul and Cronos have resulted in billions of dollars in losses.
Capital Expenditures
- Altria's capital expenditures for 2025 reached $216 million, marking a 52.1% increase from the prior year, primarily driven by investments in manufacturing capabilities and innovative products.
- For 2026, the company anticipates capital expenditures to be in the range of $300 million to $375 million, with funding expected from operating cash flows. These expenditures are projected to support contract manufacturing capabilities.
- In 2024, capital expenditures decreased by 27.6% to $142 million.
Peer Outperformance in Tobacco
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail | 12 | 23.1% | 55.9% | 55.7% | WMT 167% · PSMT 128% · COST 117% |
| Tobacco ← | 6 | -28.6% | -9.2% | 37.2% | PM 164% · MO 147% |
| Food Retail | 6 | 9.2% | 60.5% | 34.5% | CASY 251% · SFM 103% · KR 78% |
| Food Distributors | 8 | 10.8% | 26.1% | 34.1% | CHEF 183% · USFD 177% · PFGC 121% |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages | 13 | 25.0% | -5.8% | 12.7% | COKE 402% · COCO 358% · MNST 100% |
| Brewers | 3 | 10.6% | -24.0% | 2.1% | BUD 48% · TAP 2% · SAM -56% |
| Personal Care Products | 4 | 21.8% | 7.3% | -13.8% | ELF 271% · PG 29% · COTY -56% |
| Household Products | 19 | 22.1% | 4.5% | -19.8% | IPAR 61% · CL 40% · CHD 31% |
| Packaged Foods & Meats | 48 | -21.7% | -33.5% | -36.2% | CALM 127% · TR 43% · SJM 24% |
| Agricultural Products & Services | 11 | -9.4% | -11.4% | -40.8% | ADM 25% · BG 22% · INGR 8% |
| Distillers & Vintners | 5 | -23.1% | -56.8% | -75.0% | STZ -30% · BF-B -53% |
| Drug Retail | 3 | -66.7% | -82.9% | -95.5% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Years of Rewards: $43 Bil From Altria Stock | 05/28/2026 | |
| Altria Earnings Notes | 04/29/2026 | |
| Altria Stock Slides 6.8% With A 7-Day Losing Spree | 03/25/2026 | |
| Altria Stock Plummets 5.2% With 6-Day Losing Streak | 03/24/2026 | |
| MO Stock Surges 13% With A 7-day Winning Spree On FDA Approval | 01/17/2026 | |
| MO Stock Surges 13% With A 6-day Winning Spree On UBS Upgrade To Buy | 01/16/2026 | |
| MO Stock Falls -5.3% With A 5-day Losing Spree On Sector Headwinds | 01/08/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Bonds Now Pay More Than Stocks. Is 60/40 Back? | 11/07/2026 | |
| What If You Add Gold And Cash To A Dividend Portfolio? | 11/07/2026 | |
| Are Dividends The New Bonds? | 11/07/2026 | |
| Is Altria’s Dividend Enough To Make Up For Its Share Price? | 11/05/2026 | |
| What Just Happened To Altria Stock? | 10/30/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 72.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.9 |
| Rev LTM | 10,123 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,164 |
| FCF LTM | 1,504 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,457 |
| CFO LTM | 2,240 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,318 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -9.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smokeable products | 20,485 | 21,204 | 21,756 | 22,476 | 22,866 |
| Oral tobacco products | 2,802 | 2,776 | 2,667 | 2,580 | 2,608 |
| All other | 5 | -2 | -2 | 40 | 45 |
| E-vapor products | -13 | 40 | 62 | ||
| Wine | 494 | ||||
| Total | 23,279 | 24,018 | 24,483 | 25,096 | 26,013 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smokeable products | 10,984 | 10,821 | 10,670 | 10,688 | 10,394 |
| Oral tobacco products | 1,828 | 1,449 | 1,722 | 1,632 | 1,659 |
| Amortization of intangibles | -132 | -139 | -128 | -73 | -72 |
| All other | -229 | -243 | -58 | -36 | -97 |
| General corporate expenses | -255 | -476 | -643 | -292 | -345 |
| E-vapor products | -2,297 | -171 | -16 | ||
| Wine | 21 | ||||
| Total | 9,899 | 11,241 | 11,547 | 11,919 | 11,560 |
| $ Mil | 2007 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Tobacco | 14,274 | ||||
| European Union | 3,477 | ||||
| Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa | 1,596 | ||||
| Asia | 1,521 | ||||
| Latin America | 499 | ||||
| Financial Services | 9,231 | 8,864 | 8,402 | ||
| Beer | 1,782 | 1,751 | 1,769 | ||
| Financial Services and Real Estate | 7,711 | ||||
| Food | 30,462 | ||||
| Tobacco | 16,102 | ||||
| Total | 21,367 | 9,231 | 10,646 | 10,153 | 56,044 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $76.12 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 127.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $71.15 | $67.70 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.0% | 12.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.3% | 25.4% |
| Downside Capture | -112.04 | -81.40 |
| Upside Capture | -25.60 | -24.33 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -32.1% | -28.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.15 | -0.88 | -0.77 | -1.02 | -0.58 | -0.11 |
| Up Beta | 0.55 | -0.67 | -0.49 | -1.66 | -0.83 | -0.05 |
| Down Beta | -0.88 | -1.54 | -1.84 | -1.04 | -0.46 | -0.01 |
| Up Capture | -7% | -19% | -15% | -49% | -16% | 0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 416 |
| Down Capture | -248% | -152% | -127% | -143% | -162% | -159% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 32 | 58 | 112 | 331 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO | 42.4% | 25.4% | 1.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 21.2% | 15.8% | 1.01 | 63.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | -25.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | -19.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -2.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | -13.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO | 20.5% | 21.4% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.5% | 14.0% | 0.31 | 54.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 10.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | -4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 28.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 3.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO | 8.9% | 23.5% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.4% | 15.0% | 0.42 | 60.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 33.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | -2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 13.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 41.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 6.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 5.2% | 6.9% | |
| 7/30/2026 | -9.3% | -8.6% | -9.7% |
| 4/30/2026 | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | -5.3% | 3.2% | 9.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | -7.8% | -7.8% | -4.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 11.9% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | -0.2% | 6.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -8.6% | -9.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 5.2% | 6.9% | |
| 7/30/2026 | -9.3% | -8.6% | -9.7% |
| 4/30/2026 | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | -5.3% | 3.2% | 9.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | -7.8% | -7.8% | -4.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 11.9% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | -0.2% | 6.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.0% | -2.1% | 5.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 6.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.0% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | -8.3% | -6.8% | -3.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.5% | -2.9% | -2.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.1% | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| 2/1/2023 | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | -1.9% | -3.2% | -3.4% |
| 7/28/2022 | -0.2% | 0.4% | 5.3% |
| 4/28/2022 | 0.5% | 2.7% | -0.8% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | -6.1% | -5.3% | -7.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | 2.1% | -1.2% | 2.4% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| 1/28/2021 | 2.0% | 0.4% | 4.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -8.6% | -9.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 5.66 | 5.7 | 5.74 | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 5.67 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 4.5% | 5.25% | 6.0% | ||||
| 2027 Share Repurchase Program Expansion | Reported | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 5.61 | 5.67 | 5.72 | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 5.64 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 375.00 Mil | 412.50 Mil | 450.00 Mil | ||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 5.56 | 5.64 | 5.72 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.64 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.0% for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization Expenses | Reported | 225.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 22.5% | 23.0% | 23.5% | -0.5% | Lower New | Actual: 23.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 5.56 | 5.64 | 5.72 | 4.2% | Higher New | Actual: 5.41 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 337.50 Mil | 375.00 Mil | 68.8% | Higher New | Actual: 200.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McQuade, Kathryn B | Direct | Buy | 9112026 | 67.62 | 1,500 | 101,430 | 7,771,499 | Form | |
| 2 | Kelly, Ennis Debra J | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 72.25 | 5,790 | 418,318 | 5,332,575 | Form | |
| 3 | Strahlman, Ellen R | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 72.56 | 2,000 | 145,118 | 1,821,376 | Form | |
| 4 | Whitaker, Charles N | SVP, Chief HR Off. & CCO | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 67.57 | 27,908 | 1,885,718 | 12,221,156 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McQuade, Kathryn B | Direct | Buy | 9112026 | 67.62 | 1,500 | 101,430 | 7,771,499 | Form | |
| 2 | Kelly, Ennis Debra J | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 72.25 | 5,790 | 418,318 | 5,332,575 | Form | |
| 3 | Strahlman, Ellen R | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 72.56 | 2,000 | 145,118 | 1,821,376 | Form | |
| 4 | Whitaker, Charles N | SVP, Chief HR Off. & CCO | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 67.57 | 27,908 | 1,885,718 | 12,221,156 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
MO Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Altria is successfully managing its transition. The rate of decline in its core cigarette business is moderating, with adjusted volumes down 4% in Q3. Simultaneously, its `on!` nicotine pouch growth engine has re-accelerated to 13.3% volume growth. This execution prompted a raised 2026 EPS growth forecast of 4.5% to 6.0%, underpinning substantial cash returns to shareholders.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Consumption / Brand Franchise(Price per Unit) x (Volume of Units Sold) Pricing power on the high-margin, dominant Marlboro brand within the smokeable products segment.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The core cigarette business shows moderating volume declines while the `on!` oral nicotine business is re-accelerating, supported by new product launches.
- Adjusted domestic cigarette volume decline moderated to 4% in Q3 from 4.5% in Q2.
- `on!` nicotine pouch shipment volume rebounded to 13.3% growth in Q3 2026.
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to a range of $5.66 to $5.74.
- Marlboro's share of the premium cigarette segment expanded to 60% in the latest quarter.
- The company maintains a 1.9x debt-to-EBITDA ratio, in line with its target of 2x.
PRIMARY RISK
The core cigarette business could re-accelerate its decline from the current 4% rate if external factors reverse. Concurrently, intense competition in the oral nicotine pouch market could stall growth for the on! brand, creating a gap in profit generation that pricing and buybacks cannot fill. The 37.3% growth in accounts receivable is a warning sign.
- Accounts receivable grew year-over-year, far outpacing 3.6% revenue growth.
- The discount cigarette segment grew to 34.1% of the market, up 2.0 share points.
- The oral tobacco category faces 'elevated' competitive investment from rivals.
- The Skoal trademark's fair value exceeds its carrying value by only 7%, risking impairment.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic Cigarette Shipment Volume | 2.9% year-over-year decline for Q3 2026 - Turning around | Management attributes the moderating decline to reduced cross-category movement from illicit e-vapor products. When adjusted for trade inventory, the decline also improved to an estimated 4% in Q3 from 4.5% in Q2, confirming the trend of slower volume erosion. |
| on! (Nicotine Pouch) Shipment Volume | 13.3% year-over-year growth for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The Q2 decline was attributed to trade inventory movements and difficult comparisons. The strong Q3 rebound reflects progress from the nationwide expansion of the on! PLUS product line and new flavor introductions. |
| Adjusted Domestic Cigarette Volume Decline | 4% (Q3 2026) | Measures the rate of decline in the company's core cigarette business volume, adjusted for trade inventory movements. A moderating decline is a positive signal for the stability of the primary profit engine. |
| Marlboro Share of Premium Segment | 60% (Q3 2026) | Measures the brand's dominance within the most profitable segment of the cigarette market. Maintaining or growing this share is key to the profitability of the smokeables business. |
| Discount Retail Share of Cigarette Category | 34.1% (Q3 2026) | Indicates the level of consumer trade-down to lower-priced products, often driven by economic pressure. A rising share suggests headwinds for premium brands like Marlboro. |
Smokeable Cash vs. Smoke-Free Growth
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe moderating cigarette declines (4% adjusted) and rebounding `on!` growth (13.3%) show the transition is working. Strong pricing power funds the pivot and shareholder returns, justifying the recent guidance raise to 4.5%-6.0% EPS growth.
CORE TENSION
Can 13.3% growth in the smaller `on!` business offset a 4% decline in the massive cigarette franchise, which the market rewarded post-earnings?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The combination of moderating declines, accelerating `on!` growth, and a raised full-year EPS forecast demonstrates successful execution of the company's strategy.
BEAR VIEW
Bears fear the 4% cigarette decline is still too steep and its moderation is temporary. They see `on!` as a challenger in a competitive market and view a jump in accounts receivable as a sign of weakness.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
11/9/2026 | Oral Tobacco Competitive Pressure Watch: TPB's Modern Oral segment growth and commentary on the promotional environment, which could signal continued margin pressure for on!. |
1/5/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Constellation Brands (STZ) is scheduled to report earnings. |
1/28/2027 | Accounts Receivable Unwinds Watch: The next quarter's A/R growth versus revenue, and any management commentary on collections, allowances, or channel inventory levels. |
1/28/2027 | Smokeable Volume Declines Re-accelerate Watch: The company's reported domestic cigarette shipment volume and its estimate for the total industry decline rate. |
2/4/2027 | International Peer Signals Headwinds Watch: PM's IQOS user growth, ZYN international performance, and commentary on regulatory developments outside the U.S. |
2/16/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
November | New Flavor Launch Watch: The on! PLUS portfolio will be expanded with a Watermelon Mint flavor in select retail locations. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-29 | Strong Q3 and Guidance Raise Details: On October 29, 2026, Altria reported strong Q3 results, growing adjusted diluted EPS by 4.8%, and raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. The stock reacted positively with a 7.0% gain. | +6.9% $72.99 -> $78.03 |
2026-10-29 | on! PLUS National Expansion Details: During the third quarter, the company's Helix subsidiary completed the national expansion of its on! PLUS 12-milligram nicotine pouch product across mint, wintergreen, and tobacco varieties. | +6.9% $72.99 -> $78.03 |
2026-08-27 | Quarterly Dividend Increased Details: The company announced on August 27, 2026, that it was increasing its quarterly dividend by 4.7% to $1.11 per share, marking its 61st increase in 57 years. | -0.7% $68.03 -> $67.57 |
2026-08-24 | Manufacturing Deal with PMI Details: On August 24, 2026, the company announced a contract manufacturing arrangement with Philip Morris International to leverage its combustible cigarette manufacturing capabilities and enhance operational efficiency. | +3.0% $65.05 -> $67.00 |
2026-07-30 | Negative Q2 Earnings Reaction Details: Following the Q2 earnings release on July 30, 2026, the stock experienced a significant negative two-day reaction of -9.0% versus a 2.0% gain for the S&P 500. | -8.8% $73.74 -> $67.26 |
2026-05-29 | Positive Post-Earnings Narrative Details: Following strong Q1 2026 results that beat estimates, analyst notes in May highlighted intensifying enforcement against illicit vapes, improving the competitive landscape and supporting a more optimistic profit growth outlook. | -4.6% $69.79 -> $66.58 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MO trades at roughly 24% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.4x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
PM - Philip Morris International
Global Smoke-Free LeaderPhilip Morris International offers exposure to international markets and the leading heated-tobacco product category, providing geographic and product diversification away from the U.S. combustible market.
TPB - Turning Point Brands
High-Growth Oral CompetitorTurning Point Brands provides more concentrated exposure to the high-growth U.S. modern oral market, with recent net sales growth of 128% in that segment.
A high-yield cash-generation machine managing the secular decline of its core cigarette business through disciplined pricing, while funding a strategic pivot to the growing oral nicotine pouch market.
Altria is maximizing profitability from its dominant but declining Marlboro franchise by consistently raising prices. This cash flow funds a large dividend, share buybacks, and investments in its smoke-free future, primarily the on! nicotine pouch brand. The success of this transition hinges on on! PLUS capturing significant share in a competitive market and navigating a complex regulatory landscape plagued by illicit products.
Continued moderation in cigarette volume declines, successful price increases without significant volume loss, and accelerating market share gains for on! PLUS.
An acceleration of cigarette volume declines, an inability to pass through price increases, on! PLUS failing to gain traction against competitors, or adverse regulatory actions like flavor bans.
Quarter-to-quarter trade inventory movements, minor litigation announcements, and short-term fluctuations in gas prices.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful national rollout and consumer adoption of the expanded on! PLUS portfolio, including new flavors and higher nicotine strengths, which could accelerate growth in the oral tobacco segment.
Smokeable products
$20.5B TTM (88% of Total) · 54% MarginWhat It Is
Sells combustible cigarettes, including brands like Marlboro, Virginia Slims, Parliament, a recently discussed product, and Basic, as well as cigars like Black & Mild, primarily to wholesalers and retailers for resale to adult consumers in the U.S.
Who Pays & How
Wholesalers and retailers pay for these products because of the strong, consistent demand from adult smokers, driven by the dominant brand equity of Marlboro in the premium segment and competitive offerings like Basic in the discount segment.
Competition
Oral tobacco products
$2.8B TTM (12% of Total) · 65% MarginWhat It Is
Sells smoke-free products, including moist smokeless tobacco (MST) like Copenhagen and Skoal, and oral nicotine pouches under the on! and on! PLUS brands, to wholesalers and retailers for adult consumers.
Who Pays & How
Wholesalers and retailers pay for these products to meet growing consumer demand for smoke-free nicotine alternatives. Consumers are drawn to the category for harm reduction and social convenience, with growth driven by innovation in flavors and higher nicotine strengths.
Competition
Altria — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Tobacco Resources |
| Tobacco Reporter |
| Tobacco Journal International |
| CSP Daily News - Tobacco |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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