Turning Point Brands (TPB)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $93.39 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco
Turning Point Brands (TPB)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $93.39Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Tobacco
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Adult Consumer Lifestyles. Themes include Niche Consumer Goods, Direct-to-Consumer Channels, and Heritage & Lifestyle Brands. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 101x Key risksTPB key risks include [1] substantial and increasing regulatory challenges from the FDA, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Adult Consumer Lifestyles. Themes include Niche Consumer Goods, Direct-to-Consumer Channels, and Heritage & Lifestyle Brands. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 101x |
| Key risksTPB key risks include [1] substantial and increasing regulatory challenges from the FDA, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Disappointing Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings and Weak First Quarter 2026 Guidance.
Turning Point Brands reported a significant earnings miss for Q4 2025, with diluted EPS of $0.42, a 52% shortfall compared to the consensus estimate of $0.87 per share. Concurrently, the company issued weak adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q1 2026, projecting $24 million to $27 million, a decline from the $30.0 million reported in Q4 2025. This financial outlook signaled rising costs impacting near-term profitability and led to a sharp stock sell-off of 21% following the March 2, 2026 earnings report.
2. Increased Strategic Investments Impacting Short-Term Profitability.
The company has aggressively invested in its Modern Oral segment (FRE and ALP nicotine pouches) for sales, marketing, and distribution. This strategy resulted in consolidated selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increasing 38.2% year-over-year in Q4 2025 and 53.2% to $55.8 million in Q1 2026. While Modern Oral net sales surged by 133% year-over-year to $52.0 million in Q1 2026, the heavy investment phase contributed to a 19.0% decrease in net income to $11.7 million and a 6.5% decrease in Adjusted EBITDA to $25.9 million in Q1 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.8% change in TPB stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 121.04 | 93.42 | -22.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 436 | 481 | 10.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.0% | 11.5% | -4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.2 | 32.4 | -23.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 19 | -5.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TPB | -22.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 20.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.4% | 41.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.1% change in TPB stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.75 | 93.42 | 4.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 407 | 481 | 18.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.7% | 11.5% | 7.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.8 | 32.4 | -12.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 19 | -6.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TPB | 4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 18.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 11.9% | 34.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.7% change in TPB stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.17 | 93.42 | 52.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 361 | 481 | 33.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.0% | 11.5% | 4.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 32.4 | 17.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 19 | -6.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TPB | 52.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 12.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.7% | 25.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 300.8% change in TPB stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 218.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.31 | 93.42 | 300.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 321 | 481 | 49.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.6% | 11.5% | 218.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.1 | 32.4 | -7.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 19 | -8.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 300.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TPB | 300.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 24.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 18.0% | 28.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPB Return | -15% | -42% | 23% | 130% | 81% | -17% | 110% |
| Peers Return | -3% | -20% | -13% | -2% | -10% | -6% | -44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPB Win Rate | 42% | 17% | 58% | 67% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 46% | 44% | 54% | 50% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPB Max Drawdown | -20% | -48% | -7% | -16% | -9% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -33% | -28% | -28% | -28% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MO, PM, UVV, GNLN. See TPB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 639 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Turning Point Brands's stock fell -21.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | TPB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 639 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Turning Point Brands's stock fell -21.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Turning Point Brands (TPB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Turning Point Brands (TPB):
- Like Altria, but focused on smokeless tobacco, Zig-Zag rolling papers, and vaping products.
- The 'non-cigarette' tobacco and vaping company, similar to a smaller British American Tobacco that specializes in chew, cigar wraps, and e-cigarettes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Zig-Zag Smoking Products: This segment markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, and make-your-own cigar wraps under the Zig-Zag brand.
- Stoker's Tobacco Products: Manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products under various brands including Stoker's and Beech-Nut.
- NewGen CBD Products: Markets and distributes cannabidiol (CBD) isolate.
- NewGen Vapor & Nicotine-Free Products: Distributes liquid vapor products and other consumer products without tobacco and/or nicotine.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Turning Point Brands (TPB) primarily sells its products to other companies. While specific major customer names are not provided in the background information, the company distributes its products through the following types of businesses:
- Wholesale distributors
- Retail merchants, including:
- Independent and chain convenience stores
- Tobacco outlets
- Food stores
- Mass merchandising stores
- Drug stores
Additionally, for its NewGen Products segment, Turning Point Brands also sells directly to individual consumers through its VaporFi B2C online platform.
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Graham H. Purdy, Chief Executive Officer
Appointed CEO in October 2022, Graham Purdy previously served as Chief Operating Officer from 2019 to 2022. He joined Turning Point Brands in 2004 and has held various leadership positions, including President of the New Ventures Division and Senior Vice-President Sales. During his tenure, he oversaw the successful brand extensions of Zig-Zag Cigar Wraps and Stoker's MST and built an effective sales organization. Before joining TPB, he spent seven years at Philip Morris, USA, in senior sales and sales management positions.
Andrew Flynn, Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Flynn was appointed Chief Financial Officer in March 2024, with an effective date on or before April 1, 2024, succeeding Louie Reformina. Prior to joining Turning Point Brands, he served as the CFO at Connected Cannabis Co., where he was responsible for driving profitable growth, geographical expansion, and recapitalizing the company. He also held senior leadership roles at JUUL Labs, James Hardie, and Arrow Electronics.
Summer Frein, Chief Revenue Officer
Summer Frein joined Turning Point Brands as Chief Marketing Officer in early 2022 and was appointed Chief Revenue Officer in December 2022. She is responsible for leading the company's unified revenue strategy and overseeing marketing and sales functions. Before her time at Turning Point Brands, she held a variety of senior leadership roles over 15 years at Cronos Group and Altria Group, Inc.
Alicia Carrasco, Chief People Officer
Alicia Carrasco began with Turning Point Brands as Chief People Officer in 2022. Her responsibilities include ensuring that the people and culture agenda supports TPB's business objectives through strategic workforce initiatives, employee development, and engagement. Previously, she was the Vice President of Human Resources, Consumer Self-Care Americas at Perrigo Company, where she developed and implemented the human resource strategy for North America and also led Perrigo's Global Talent Management function.
David E. Glazek, Executive Chairman
David Glazek transitioned from Non-Executive to Executive Board Chairman, effective January 2023. He is confident in the CEO's ability to oversee Turning Point's brand strategy and sharpen the company's operational focus.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Turning Point Brands (TPB) primarily revolve around the highly regulated nature of its industry, intense competition, and its reliance on third-party suppliers.
- Regulatory Challenges and Shifting Consumer Preferences: Turning Point Brands operates in a heavily regulated environment, with significant oversight from entities like the FDA, particularly concerning tobacco and non-tobacco nicotine products. The company faces risks from potential federal excise tax increases and unresolved outcomes regarding flavor bans, which could impact its Stoker's moist snuff tobacco and NewGen vapor products segments. There's also a threat from declining sales of traditional tobacco products due to increasing health concerns and evolving consumer preferences. The evolving market for novel nicotine and cannabinoid products also presents uncertainty due to a rapidly changing regulatory landscape and shifting consumer demands, with the risk of tighter nicotine regulation potentially impacting future earnings.
- Intense Competition: Turning Point Brands faces substantial competition within the "other tobacco products" (OTP) industry from larger, more resource-rich "big tobacco" companies. Industry consolidation could further disadvantage TPB given its smaller scale, potentially affecting its market share and profitability. The company also faces the threat of larger Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies entering the rolling papers and accessories market, especially if cannabis legalization expands. Furthermore, heavy investments to expand its modern oral products could pressure margins if growth in this segment slows or if regulations tighten.
- Reliance on Third-Party Relationships and Supply Chain Disruptions: Turning Point Brands' business model is significantly dependent on outsourced supplier relationships for product manufacturing. The company's reliance on a limited number of key suppliers, such as Swedish Match and RTI, poses a critical risk. Any disruptions in these essential relationships or broader supply chain issues could adversely affect TPB's ability to deliver products to the market and impact its overall operations.
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The rise of tobacco-free oral nicotine pouches directly threatening its traditional moist snuff and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products.
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Addressable Markets for Turning Point Brands' Main Products and Services:
-
Finished Cigars and Make-Your-Own Cigar Wraps (Zig-Zag Products):
- The U.S. cigar and cigarillos market was valued at approximately USD 13.07 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 24.97 billion by 2033.
- Globally, the cigar market was estimated at USD 54.79 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 102.17 billion in 2033.
-
Rolling Papers (Zig-Zag Products):
- The U.S. rolling paper market size is projected at USD 485.74 million in 2025.
- The global rolling paper market reached an estimated US$ 745 million in value in 2023 and is projected to reach US$ 2.5 billion by 2033.
-
Moist Snuff Tobacco (Stoker's Products):
- The U.S. smokeless tobacco market, which includes moist snuff, is estimated to be US$ 4.02 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to US$ 5.3 billion by 2033.
- The global moist snuff market was estimated at USD 5.7 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach approximately USD 9.4 billion by 2032.
-
Loose-Leaf Chewing Tobacco (Stoker's Products):
- The global chewing tobacco market was valued at USD 23.18 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach nearly USD 32.01 billion by 2030.
-
Cannabidiol (CBD) Isolate (NewGen Products):
- The global CBD isolate market was valued at USD 2.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 9.2 billion by 2032.
- North America is currently the largest market for CBD isolate. The overall North American cannabidiol market (which includes isolates) held over 40.4% of the global market in 2024, with the global market at USD 9.81 billion in 2024.
-
Liquid Vapor Products (NewGen Products):
- The U.S. e-cigarette and vape market was valued at US$ 13.7 billion. More specifically, the U.S. e-liquid market is estimated to be approximately USD 687 million in 2024 (based on North America holding 38% of the global e-liquid market, with the U.S. contributing nearly 80% of that regional demand, and the global market being USD 2.26 billion).
- The global e-liquid market size was estimated at USD 2.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 4.93 billion by 2030.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Turning Point Brands (TPB)
Turning Point Brands (TPB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives, primarily focusing on its Modern Oral segment and strategic market expansion.
- Modern Oral Nicotine Pouch Expansion: The most significant driver of future revenue growth is anticipated to come from the continued expansion and market share capture of its Modern Oral nicotine pouch brands, FRE and ALP. The company reported a 266% increase in Modern Oral net sales in Q4 2025 and provided 2026 guidance for Modern Oral gross revenue of $220-$240 million and net revenue of $180-$190 million. This growth is supported by expanding distribution to large regional and national accounts, as well as increased presence in bricks-and-mortar retail for ALP.
- Increased Sales and Marketing Investments: TPB is making significant investments in sales, marketing, and trade promotions for its Modern Oral products to capitalize on the rapidly growing nicotine pouch category and achieve a double-digit market share over time. These investments are a strategic priority to support distribution and brand building for its white pouch brands.
- International Expansion for Zig-Zag Products: The "Zig-Zag Everywhere" initiative involves geographic expansion into Western Europe and parts of South America. This strategy aims to leverage increasing international demand for rolling papers, which rose 14% year-over-year through 2024-2025.
- Growth in Legacy Stoker's Products: While Modern Oral is a primary focus, the legacy Stoker's products, particularly moist snuff tobacco (MST), continue to generate durable cash flows and have shown high-single-digit growth. This segment's stable performance provides funding for investments in future growth.
- Product Category Diversification and Strategic Acquisitions: Turning Point Brands is pursuing bolt-on acquisitions in the active ingredients space to integrate innovative brands and further diversify its product portfolio. The company also focuses on the development and launch of novel consumables with active ingredients.
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Share Repurchases
- Turning Point Brands reported annual share buybacks of $5.051 million in 2024.
- The company plans to amend its buyback authorization to allow for $200 million of capacity, indicating a future intent for share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- In the third quarter of 2025, Turning Point Brands raised $97.5 million in net proceeds at an average price of $98.59 per share through an "At the Market" offering program.
- The capital raised from the ATM offering program in Q3 2025 is intended to accelerate the growth of the Modern Oral segment.
- The number of voting common shares outstanding increased from 17,747,117 as of February 28, 2025, to 19,141,208 as of February 23, 2026.
Outbound Investments
- By July 2021, Turning Point Brands increased its minority stake in Turning Point Brands Canada to a 65% ownership to enhance marketing and distribution of cannabis accessories and tobacco products in Canada.
- The company is significantly investing in sales and marketing for its Modern Oral products, including preparations for the Q2 2026 launch of the ALK brand in physical retail stores.
- Turning Point Brands is committed to increasing investment in its white pouch brands, with some of this investment expected to be accounted for as contra revenue.
Capital Expenditures
- Over the past five years (as of 2024), Turning Point Brands' capital expenditures have ranged between $4.7 million and $7.7 million annually.
- Budgeted capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be $4 million to $5 million, excluding projects for the Modern Oral business, with an additional $3 million to $5 million allocated for Modern Oral Premarket Tobacco Applications (PMTAs).
- Capital expenditures in 2025 were directed towards building infrastructure improvements, such as HVAC, electrical, and plumbing systems, to enhance operational efficiency.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,912 |
| Op Inc LTM | 228 |
| FCF LTM | 53 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 61 |
| CFO LTM | 101 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 123 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.2 |
| P/EBIT | 9.7 |
| P/E | 15.8 |
| P/CFO | 13.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 88.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $93.42 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/11/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $85.65 | $98.82 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 9.1% | -5.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 80.1% | 50.6% |
| Downside Capture | 0.46 | 0.12 |
| Upside Capture | -79.07 | 44.08 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.3% | 12.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.39 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 0.78 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| Up Beta | 1.08 | 2.61 | 2.22 | 0.99 | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| Down Beta | 31.56 | 1.42 | 0.98 | 1.40 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | 1% | -111% | -36% | 26% | 56% | 76% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 33 | 70 | 140 | 398 |
| Down Capture | 570% | 196% | 152% | 64% | 56% | 80% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 31 | 55 | 111 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TPB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPB | 15.8% | 51.1% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.2% | 12.6% | 0.20 | 28.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 11.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | -21.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 11.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | -4.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TPB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPB | 15.2% | 42.1% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.5% | 13.2% | 0.27 | 25.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 24.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | -0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 27.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TPB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPB | 25.6% | 48.4% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.7% | 14.7% | 0.39 | 25.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 28.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 28.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/2/2026 | -20.8% | -33.1% | -37.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | 14.2% | 22.0% | 21.8% |
| 3/6/2025 | -8.1% | -11.6% | -13.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | -2.8% | 7.8% | 25.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 1.3% | -0.8% | 5.2% |
| 2/28/2024 | 7.6% | 13.8% | 27.7% |
| 11/8/2023 | 4.6% | 5.5% | 13.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -11.6% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 14.2% | 22.0% | 27.7% |
| Max Negative | -20.8% | -33.1% | -37.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Modern Oral Gross Sales | 280.00 Mil | 290.00 Mil | 300.00 Mil | 26.1% | Raised | Guidance: 230.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Modern Oral Net Sales | 210.00 Mil | 217.50 Mil | 225.00 Mil | 17.6% | Raised | Guidance: 185.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 70.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 24.00 Mil | 25.50 Mil | 27.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Modern Oral Gross Revenue | 220.00 Mil | 230.00 Mil | 240.00 Mil | 80.4% | Higher New | Actual: 127.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Revenue | 180.00 Mil | 185.00 Mil | 190.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flynn, Andrew | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 97.57 | 2,000 | 195,140 | 921,354 | Form |
| 2 | Glazek, David Edward | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 110.26 | 30,000 | 3,307,800 | 14,012,172 | Form |
| 3 | Diao, H.c. Charles | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 108.20 | 2,000 | 216,400 | 1,060,793 | Form | |
| 4 | Baxter, Gregory HA | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 98.23 | 1,500 | 147,345 | 3,823,013 | Form | |
| 5 | Usher, Stephen | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 102.54 | 1,000 | 102,540 | 428,104 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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