Tearsheet

Turning Point Brands (TPB)


Market Price (11/16/2025): $100.92 | Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco

Turning Point Brands (TPB)


Market Price (11/16/2025): $100.92
Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Tobacco

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 50%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Adult Consumer Lifestyles. Themes include Niche Consumer Goods, Direct-to-Consumer Channels, and Heritage & Lifestyle Brands.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Adult Consumer Lifestyles. Themes include Niche Consumer Goods, Direct-to-Consumer Channels, and Heritage & Lifestyle Brands.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7%
6 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 50%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

TPB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Turning Point Brands (TPB) experienced a 22.1% stock movement between July 31, 2025, and November 6, 2025, primarily driven by several key factors:

1. Exceptional Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Turning Point Brands reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025, with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.27, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.81 per share, representing a 29.63% positive surprise. The reported EPS also exceeded the forecasted $0.78, indicating a 62.82% positive surprise. Net income for the quarter also saw a substantial increase of 70.3% to $21.1 million.

2. Robust Revenue Growth Driven by Modern Oral Segment: The company's consolidated net sales for Q3 2025 increased by 31.2% year-over-year, reaching $119.0 million, which also exceeded analyst estimates. A significant contributor to this growth was the Modern Oral segment, which saw sales surge by an impressive 627.6% year-over-year to $36.7 million, now constituting 30.8% of the total company net sales.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TPB Return57%-15%-42%23%130%69%270%
Peers Return12%47%-7%-11%-8%16%45%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TPB Win Rate67%42%17%58%67%70% 
Peers Win Rate40%52%43%40%56%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TPB Max Drawdown-48%-20%-48%-7%-16%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-3%-18%-17%-26%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RILY, RGP, PM, MO, WNS. See TPB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTPBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-66.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven202.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven697 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-62.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven166.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven467 days120 days

Compare to RILY, RGP, PM, MO, WNS


In The Past

Turning Point Brands's stock fell -66.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -66.9% loss requires a 202.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Turning Point Brands (TPB)

Better Bets than Turning Point Brands (TPB)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TPB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.8%-7.8%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.5%-7.5%-7.9%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.2%-27.2%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.8%-7.8%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.5%-7.5%-7.9%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.2%-27.2%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Turning Point Brands

Financials

TPBRILYRGPPMMOWNSMedian
NameTurning .B. Riley.Resource.Philip M.Altria WNS  
Mkt Price101.225.014.80155.4358.19-58.19
Mkt Cap1.80.20.2242.098.0-1.8
Rev LTM4361,20553539,99220,259-1,205
Op Inc LTM93-349214,81911,961-93
FCF LTM39256910,1238,728-256
FCF 3Y Avg5392389,2678,710-92
CFO LTM502641111,5268,876-264
CFO 3Y Avg60984010,6798,887-98

Growth & Margins

TPBRILYRGPPMMOWNSMedian
NameTurning .B. Riley.Resource.Philip M.Altria WNS  
Rev Chg LTM53.5%-21.7%-10.8%7.5%-0.2%--0.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.4%-1.0%-13.4%8.0%-0.9%--0.9%
Rev Chg Q31.2%-22.5%-12.2%9.4%0.2%-0.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.9%-6.0%-3.0%2.4%0.1%-0.1%
Op Mgn LTM21.4%-28.9%0.3%37.1%59.0%-21.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.3%-4.0%4.1%35.9%57.1%-25.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-6.2%-0.2%0.7%1.7%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM11.5%21.9%2.1%28.8%43.8%-21.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.4%8.0%5.8%28.7%43.5%-18.4%
FCF/Rev LTM8.9%21.2%1.6%25.3%43.1%-21.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.4%7.5%5.5%24.9%42.7%-16.4%

Valuation

TPBRILYRGPPMMOWNSMedian
NameTurning .B. Riley.Resource.Philip M.Altria WNS  
Mkt Cap1.80.20.2242.098.0-1.8
P/S4.20.10.36.14.8-4.2
P/EBIT18.4-0.292.715.88.3-15.8
P/E35.3-0.2-0.828.011.2-11.2
P/CFO36.80.614.021.011.0-14.0
Total Yield3.1%-478.1%-108.5%7.1%16.0%-3.1%
Dividend Yield0.3%22.1%10.3%3.5%7.0%-7.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.8%95.2%9.7%4.9%9.8%-9.7%
D/E0.212.10.20.20.3-0.2
Net D/E0.111.0-0.30.20.2-0.2

Returns

TPBRILYRGPPMMOWNSMedian
NameTurning .B. Riley.Resource.Philip M.Altria WNS  
1M Rtn11.8%-7.7%6.2%-0.4%-9.4%--0.4%
3M Rtn2.8%-26.5%6.7%-5.6%-10.2%--5.6%
6M Rtn37.7%50.0%-7.3%-7.3%2.2%-2.2%
12M Rtn67.8%6.1%-38.9%25.4%11.6%-11.6%
3Y Rtn387.2%-86.1%-70.3%89.1%70.0%-70.0%
1M Excs Rtn10.2%-9.3%4.6%-1.9%-11.0%--1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-1.7%-30.7%-0.4%-10.2%-14.8%--10.2%
6M Excs Rtn24.7%37.0%-20.3%-20.3%-10.9%--10.9%
12M Excs Rtn72.3%-13.9%-54.5%17.3%2.1%-2.1%
3Y Excs Rtn315.4%-164.7%-148.9%17.2%-15.8%--15.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate unallocated1901551596589
Zig-Zag products177226228207146
Stoker’s products175151142133121
Creative Distribution Solutions2740739191
Total569572602496447


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,880,818
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-0.8%
Average Daily Volume305,171
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.16
Basic Shares Quantity18,246,722
Short % of Basic Shares10.3%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20256.3%5.6% 
8/6/202514.2%22.0%21.8%
3/6/2025-8.1%-11.6%-13.3%
11/7/2024-2.8%7.8%25.8%
8/1/20241.3%-0.8%5.2%
2/28/20247.6%13.8%27.7%
11/8/20234.6%5.5%13.7%
8/2/20236.5%10.6%5.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121311
# Negative768
Median Positive7.1%10.1%13.7%
Median Negative-4.7%-8.9%-14.4%
Max Positive14.2%22.0%27.7%
Max Negative-20.7%-19.6%-22.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022315202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021311202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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