Turning Point Brands (TPB)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $100.92 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco
Turning Point Brands (TPB)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $100.92Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Tobacco
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 50% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Adult Consumer Lifestyles. Themes include Niche Consumer Goods, Direct-to-Consumer Channels, and Heritage & Lifestyle Brands. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Adult Consumer Lifestyles. Themes include Niche Consumer Goods, Direct-to-Consumer Channels, and Heritage & Lifestyle Brands. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 50% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
TPB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Turning Point Brands (TPB) experienced a 22.1% stock movement between July 31, 2025, and November 6, 2025, primarily driven by several key factors:
1. Exceptional Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Turning Point Brands reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025, with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.27, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.81 per share, representing a 29.63% positive surprise. The reported EPS also exceeded the forecasted $0.78, indicating a 62.82% positive surprise. Net income for the quarter also saw a substantial increase of 70.3% to $21.1 million.
2. Robust Revenue Growth Driven by Modern Oral Segment: The company's consolidated net sales for Q3 2025 increased by 31.2% year-over-year, reaching $119.0 million, which also exceeded analyst estimates. A significant contributor to this growth was the Modern Oral segment, which saw sales surge by an impressive 627.6% year-over-year to $36.7 million, now constituting 30.8% of the total company net sales.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPB Return | 57% | -15% | -42% | 23% | 130% | 69% | 270% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 47% | -7% | -11% | -8% | 16% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPB Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 17% | 58% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 52% | 43% | 40% | 56% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPB Max Drawdown | -48% | -20% | -48% | -7% | -16% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -3% | -18% | -17% | -26% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RILY, RGP, PM, MO, WNS. See TPB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 202.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 697 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -62.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 166.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 120 days |
Compare to RILY, RGP, PM, MO, WNS
In The Past
Turning Point Brands's stock fell -66.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -66.9% loss requires a 202.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Turning Point Brands Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| How Does TPB Stock Compare With Its Peers Right Now? | |||
| TPB Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Turning Point Brands (TPB) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Turning Point Brands (TPB) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Turning Point Brands (TPB) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Turning Point Brands (TPB) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Turning Point Brands vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| Day 7 of Gains Streak for Turning Point Brands Stock with 9.5% Return (vs. 62% YTD) [9/25/2024] | Notification | ||
| Turning Point Brands Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Is TPB Stock Still the Best Pick Among Its Peers? | August 21st, 2025 | ||
| How Is Turning Point Brands’ Revenue Likely To Grow In Next 2 Years? | March 23rd, 2018 | ||
| Is The Market Pricing Turning Point Brands Fairly? | March 16th, 2018 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TPB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.5% | -7.5% | -7.9% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.2% | -27.2% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.5% | -7.5% | -7.9% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.2% | -27.2% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Turning Point Brands
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 58.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,205 |
| Op Inc LTM | 93 |
| FCF LTM | 256 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 92 |
| CFO LTM | 264 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 98 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | 15.8 |
| P/E | 11.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 70.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 6.3% | 5.6% | |
| 8/6/2025 | 14.2% | 22.0% | 21.8% |
| 3/6/2025 | -8.1% | -11.6% | -13.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | -2.8% | 7.8% | 25.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 1.3% | -0.8% | 5.2% |
| 2/28/2024 | 7.6% | 13.8% | 27.7% |
| 11/8/2023 | 4.6% | 5.5% | 13.7% |
| 8/2/2023 | 6.5% | 10.6% | 5.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 7.1% | 10.1% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -8.9% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 14.2% | 22.0% | 27.7% |
| Max Negative | -20.7% | -19.6% | -22.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |