Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
Market Price (10/4/2026): $482.59 | Market Cap: $29.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
Market Price (10/4/2026): $482.59Market Cap: $29.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Construction Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.1 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | Key risksMLM key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on uncertain public infrastructure funding and [2] a high fixed cost structure that makes profitability vulnerable to declining shipment volumes despite strong pricing power. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Key risksMLM key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on uncertain public infrastructure funding and [2] a high fixed cost structure that makes profitability vulnerable to declining shipment volumes despite strong pricing power. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Investor concerns over increased leverage and potential equity dilution from the Lhoist North America acquisition.
Martin Marietta Materials' agreement to acquire Lhoist North America for $13.5 billion in cash and shares, which closed on August 24, 2026, led to investor apprehension. S&P Global Ratings affirmed MLM's 'BBB+' rating but maintained a negative outlook, anticipating the transaction would increase MLM's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage to approximately 4x, exceeding their 3x downgrade threshold. This substantial increase in debt, coupled with the share component of the acquisition, raised concerns about equity dilution.
2. Mixed Q2 2026 earnings results despite revenue and EPS beats.
While Martin Marietta Materials reported strong financial figures for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), including an EPS of $5.00 against a consensus of $4.76 and a 21.0% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.95 billion, the stock still declined. This downturn was partly attributed to a 12% decline in net earnings from continuing operations to $256 million and a reduced net margin of 13.1%, suggesting that investors focused on profitability pressures and the impact of a $52 million non-cash inventory step-up charge in aggregates.
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Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Investor concerns over increased leverage and potential equity dilution from the Lhoist North America acquisition.
Martin Marietta Materials' agreement to acquire Lhoist North America for $13.5 billion in cash and shares, which closed on August 24, 2026, led to investor apprehension. S&P Global Ratings affirmed MLM's 'BBB+' rating but maintained a negative outlook, anticipating the transaction would increase MLM's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage to approximately 4x, exceeding their 3x downgrade threshold. This substantial increase in debt, coupled with the share component of the acquisition, raised concerns about equity dilution.
2. Mixed Q2 2026 earnings results despite revenue and EPS beats.
While Martin Marietta Materials reported strong financial figures for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), including an EPS of $5.00 against a consensus of $4.76 and a 21.0% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.95 billion, the stock still declined. This downturn was partly attributed to a 12% decline in net earnings from continuing operations to $256 million and a reduced net margin of 13.1%, suggesting that investors focused on profitability pressures and the impact of a $52 million non-cash inventory step-up charge in aggregates.
3. Weakening macroeconomic outlook for residential and industrial construction.
The broader construction market faced headwinds in Q3 2026, particularly in the residential and industrial sectors. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.76% by September 10, 2026, up from around 6.00% earlier in the year, contributing to housing affordability constraints and low consumer sentiment. Consequently, housing starts are projected to decline by 6.2% in 2026 and an additional 8.8% in 2027. Total U.S. construction spending is forecasted to be down just over 1% in 2026, with manufacturing spending specifically declining by 17.4%.
4. Persistent construction cost inflation impacting margins.
Nonresidential construction costs increased by 1.58% nationally in fiscal Q3 2026 and 5.60% over the past twelve months. This was driven by rising labor costs, and elevated prices for electrical systems and metals due to mega-project demand, tariffs, and supply constraints. These ongoing cost pressures pose risks of margin compression for materials providers like Martin Marietta Materials, as highlighted by bearish analyst views.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.8% change in MLM stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 575.77 | 479.17 | -16.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,350 | 6,688 | 5.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 39.9% | 36.7% | -7.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.7 | 11.7 | -14.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MLM | -16.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 30.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | -4.5% | 74.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.4% change in MLM stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 586.89 | 479.17 | -18.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,150 | 6,688 | 8.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.5% | 36.7% | 98.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.2 | 11.7 | -62.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MLM | -18.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | 33.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | -2.5% | 75.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.5% change in MLM stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -65.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 626.75 | 479.17 | -23.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,825 | 6,688 | 14.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.9% | 36.7% | 94.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.3 | 11.7 | -65.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MLM | -23.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 38.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 9.8% | 65.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.7% change in MLM stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 150.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 403.56 | 479.17 | 18.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,464 | 6,688 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.7% | 36.7% | 150.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.3 | 11.7 | -55.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 62 | 60 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MLM | 18.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.9% | 49.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 30.3% | 63.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MLM Return | 56% | -23% | 49% | 4% | 21% | -23% | 75% |
| Peers Return | 44% | -20% | 59% | 31% | 0% | -23% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MLM Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 75% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 61% | 56% | 58% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MLM Max Drawdown | -12% | -33% | -16% | -19% | -18% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -37% | -18% | -18% | -29% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VMC, CRH, EXP, KNF. See MLM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MLM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 198 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Martin Marietta Materials's stock fell -13.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 14.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | MLM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 198 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1924 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2737 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Martin Marietta Materials's stock fell -13.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 14.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) is a natural resource-based building materials company. Its core business involves supplying essential heavy-side building materials and aggregates to the construction industry across the United States and internationally. Essentially, the company provides the foundational raw materials needed to build and maintain infrastructure, commercial properties, and homes.
The company's primary products include crushed stone, sand, and gravel. It also produces ready-mixed concrete, asphalt, and offers paving products and services. A significant part of its business involves supplying Portland and specialty cement. Beyond traditional construction materials, Martin Marietta Materials diversifies its portfolio with magnesia-based chemicals used in industrial, agricultural, and environmental applications such as flame retardants and wastewater treatment, as well as dolomitic lime primarily for steel production and soil stabilization.
Martin Marietta Materials serves a broad spectrum of customers and markets. Its materials are critical for large-scale infrastructure projects, nonresidential construction (like commercial and industrial buildings), and residential housing developments. The company's products also cater to specialized sectors including railroad construction, agricultural uses, utility projects, and various environmental applications, with its chemical products particularly serving industrial and environmental sectors.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM):
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Think of them as Caterpillar for construction materials, providing the essential stone, sand, and concrete that roads and buildings are made of, rather than the heavy equipment to build them.
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They are like Dow Chemical for aggregates and concrete, supplying foundational industrial materials crucial for the construction industry.
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Consider them the Intel inside infrastructure, providing the fundamental components like crushed stone, cement, and asphalt that form the backbone of roads, bridges, and buildings.
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- Aggregates: Includes crushed stone, sand, and gravel products essential for construction and various industries.
- Ready Mixed Concrete: A fundamental construction material used for various building and infrastructure projects.
- Asphalt: A paving material used for roads, highways, and other surfaces.
- Paving Products and Services: Materials and associated services for constructing and maintaining paved surfaces.
- Cement: Comprises Portland and specialty cements, crucial binding agents for concrete and mortar.
- Magnesia-Based Chemicals: Specialty chemical products utilized in industrial, agricultural, and environmental applications.
- Dolomitic Lime: A product primarily used in steel production and for soil stabilization.
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C. Howard Nye, Chair of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer
C. Howard Nye joined Martin Marietta in 2006 as President and Chief Operating Officer, became Chief Executive Officer in 2010, and assumed the role of Chair of the Board in 2014. Prior to his tenure at Martin Marietta, he spent nearly 13 years in progressively senior leadership roles with Hanson PLC, an international building materials company. This included serving as Executive Vice President of Hanson's North American building materials business and as President of Hanson Aggregates East from 2000 to 2003, where he had operating responsibility for over 150 facilities across 12 states with annual revenues exceeding $500 million. He also held positions as Vice President Business Development for Hanson Building Materials America and began his career as General Counsel for Hanson Aggregates East. Since 2018, Mr. Nye has served on the Board of Directors of General Dynamics Corporation.
Michael J. Petro, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Michael J. Petro was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Martin Marietta, effective July 8, 2025. He joined the company in 2015 and has held positions of increasing responsibility, including Director, Vice President, and Senior Vice President of Strategy and Development. In these roles, he was instrumental in formulating and executing Martin Marietta's strategic growth initiatives, which included numerous portfolio-enhancing acquisitions and divestitures. Before joining Martin Marietta, Mr. Petro gained financial leadership experience as an investment banker at Wells Fargo Securities and as a consultant at PwC. He is a Certified Public Accountant (inactive).
Donald A. McCunniff, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Donald A. McCunniff rejoined Martin Marietta in September 2024 as Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer. He previously served as Senior Vice President of Human Resources for the company from August 2011 until 2019. Mr. McCunniff brings over 20 years of human resources experience, having held senior-level human resource positions at CenturyLink, Inc., Armstrong World Industries, Inc., and Honeywell International, Inc. prior to his initial tenure at Martin Marietta. He began his career as a United States Army officer.
George F. Schoen, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
George F. Schoen joined Martin Marietta in March 2026 as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Before joining Martin Marietta, Mr. Schoen was the Co-Chair of the Global Mergers & Acquisitions Practice at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP. He is recognized as a leading M&A and corporate governance attorney, with nearly three decades of experience advising on significant public company mergers and acquisitions, hostile transactions, shareholder activism defense, and strategic board-level counseling. His notable advisory work includes transactions for major corporations like Disney, Occidental Petroleum, and Precision Castparts.
Robert J. Cardin, Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer
Robert J. Cardin was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of Martin Marietta in May 2019. He served as interim Chief Financial Officer from April 2025 until Michael J. Petro's appointment in July 2025. Mr. Cardin joined Martin Marietta in March 2019 as Vice President and Controller. Prior to that, he served as Chief Accounting Officer of SWM International, a NYSE-listed global manufacturer, from November 2013 to March 2019, and also as Interim CFO at SWM from April to October 2015. He is a Certified Public Accountant.
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Key Risks to Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
- Cyclicality of the Construction Industry and Economic Downturns: Martin Marietta Materials, as a supplier of heavy-side building materials, is highly susceptible to the cyclical nature of the construction industry. Economic slowdowns, fluctuations in interest rates, and changes in demand for construction projects directly impact the demand for the company's products, such as aggregates, concrete, and asphalt. Any downturn in infrastructure, nonresidential, or residential construction can adversely affect the company's revenues and profitability.
- Regulatory and Environmental Challenges: The company operates within a highly regulated environment, with its business activities subject to various federal, state, and local regulations. Key challenges include navigating complex permitting processes, land use approvals, and environmental obligations, which can be time-consuming and costly. Zoning restrictions and community opposition can make it increasingly difficult to develop new quarries or expand existing ones, directly impacting Martin Marietta's ability to secure and maintain essential aggregates reserves.
- Competition and the Challenge of Replacing Aggregates Reserves: Martin Marietta Materials faces significant competition in securing high-quality aggregates reserves, particularly near growing markets. The long-term sustainability of its core business relies on its ability to continually replace depleting reserves with economically viable and permitted deposits. Failure to secure new reserves could adversely affect the company's capacity to serve customers and impact its operations.
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Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) operates in several addressable markets related to building materials and chemical products. The estimated market sizes for their main products and services are provided below, with clarification on the region for each market.
Aggregates (Crushed Stone, Sand, and Gravel)
- The U.S. aggregates market was valued at approximately USD 164.65 billion in 2024.
Ready Mixed Concrete
- The U.S. ready-mix concrete market was worth over USD 130 billion in 2024.
Asphalt and Paving Products and Services
- The U.S. asphalt market size was USD 261.91 million in 2024.
- The U.S. Paving Contractors industry, which includes paving services, had a market size of USD 17.6 billion in 2026.
Portland and Specialty Cement
- The U.S. cement market size was USD 18.7 billion in 2024.
Magnesia-Based Chemicals Products
- The global magnesium oxide market, a broader category for magnesia-based chemicals, was estimated at USD 6.19 billion in 2025.
- The global caustic calcined magnesia market size was valued at USD 25.67 billion in 2025.
- The global magnesium hydroxide market was valued at USD 897 million in 2024.
Dolomitic Lime
- The global Dolomite Lime market is projected to reach an estimated USD 6.28 billion by 2025.
- The U.S. dolomite market, which includes dolomitic lime, generated a revenue of USD 541.9 million in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 934.8 million by 2030.
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Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors in the construction and industrial sectors.
One primary driver is the ongoing deployment of **federal and state infrastructure spending**. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) is expected to continue providing a robust, multi-year pipeline of projects, fueling demand for the company's aggregates and heavy-side building materials.
The company's strong **pricing power and disciplined price increases** are anticipated to significantly contribute to revenue growth. Management expects mid-single-digit pricing improvements, particularly in the core aggregates business, which has consistently demonstrated an ability to increase prices.
**Growth in non-residential construction** markets, including data centers, LNG facilities, energy infrastructure, and domestic manufacturing, represents another important driver. This sector has shown strong demand and is expected to maintain its momentum. Notably, data center volumes are growing rapidly, providing meaningful operating leverage.
An expected **recovery in residential construction** is also a key factor. While currently experiencing some softness, a rebound is anticipated as interest rates stabilize or reverse and mortgage rates moderate, which will further bolster demand for building materials.
Finally, **strategic acquisitions and ongoing portfolio optimization** are expected to drive revenue. Recent actions, such as the QUIKRETE asset exchange and the acquisition of Premier Magnesia and certain CRH assets, are aimed at de-risking the business profile, enhancing margin durability, and expanding the company's aggregates and specialties segments.
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Share Repurchases
- Martin Marietta Materials reported share repurchases of $450 million in 2025.
- The company also reported $450 million in annual share buybacks in 2024.
- As of December 31, 2025, approximately 11.0 million shares remained authorized for future repurchase.
Share Issuance
There have been no significant share issuances over the last 3-5 years; instead, the number of outstanding shares has generally declined due to repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In 2021, Martin Marietta invested $3.1 billion in acquisitions, including its largest acquisition of Lehigh Hanson, Inc.'s West Region business for $2.3 billion in cash.
- In February 2024, the company acquired 20 aggregates operations from Blue Water Industries LLC for $2.05 billion in cash as part of its expansion in the southeastern United States.
- In July 2025, Martin Marietta acquired Premier Magnesia, LLC to expand its Specialties business. The company also completed an asset exchange with Quikrete Holdings, Inc. in February 2026, acquiring aggregates operations in several regions.
Capital Expenditures
- Cash paid for property, plant and equipment additions was $807 million for the year ended December 31, 2025.
- Capital expenditures for 2025 were anticipated to range between $810 million and $840 million, primarily for opportunistic land purchases.
- Planned capital spending for 2026 is projected to be $575 million, representing a 29% reduction year-over-year, signaling a return to more sustainable levels.
Peer Outperformance in Construction Materials
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel | 8 | 18.6% | 46.3% | 178.5% | STLD 318% · HCC 287% · AMR 222% |
| Gold | 3 | 16.9% | 241.8% | 157.9% | CDE 182% · RGLD 158% · NEM 146% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 25.2% | 126.2% | 58.3% | CENX 157% · KALU 58% · AA -11% |
| Construction Materials ← | 5 | -23.5% | 22.1% | 46.8% | USLM 373% · CRH 84% · VMC 47% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 3 | 25.6% | 16.6% | 45.6% | HWKN 263% · KOP 46% · DOW -38% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 5 | -8.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | GEF 45% · ATR 6% · SLGN 0% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 22 | 12.5% | 15.7% | -6.1% | NEU 195% · ESI 75% · SXT 51% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 8.2% | 4.7% | -8.2% | PKG 91% · CCK 12% · SON -2% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 4 | -4.8% | -26.3% | -31.8% | CBT 64% · ASH -17% · CC -47% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 5 | -33.9% | -32.4% | -58.6% | CF 108% · MOS -35% · SMG -59% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 173.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 28.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,688 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,417 |
| FCF LTM | 810 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 753 |
| CFO LTM | 1,519 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,531 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 28.8 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.4 |
| P/EBIT | 10.2 |
| P/E | 14.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.1 |
| Total Yield | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -19.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -36.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -39.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregates | 5,004 | 4,514 | 4,302 | 3,879 | 3,344 |
| Other Building Materials | 992 | 1,078 | 1,479 | ||
| Specialties | 441 | 320 | 315 | 304 | 299 |
| Interproduct revenues | -287 | -250 | -245 | -205 | -404 |
| Asphalt and paving services | 788 | 518 | |||
| Cement and ready mixed concrete | 1,395 | ||||
| Cement | 509 | ||||
| Ready Mixed Concrete | 1,148 | ||||
| Total | 6,150 | 5,662 | 5,851 | 6,161 | 5,414 |
| $ Mil | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Group | 640 | 622 | 522 | 527 | |
| West Group | 588 | 385 | 471 | 367 | 206 |
| Specialties | 75 | 91 | 71 | 84 | 69 |
| Corporate | -97 | -124 | -59 | -93 | |
| Cement | 48 | ||||
| Mid-America Group | 207 | ||||
| Southeast Group | 16 | ||||
| corporate | -66 | ||||
| Total | 1,207 | 974 | 1,005 | 885 | 479 |
| $ Mil | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Group | 7,908 | 8,265 | 5,356 | 5,322 | 2,622 |
| East Group | 5,064 | 5,009 | 4,342 | 4,321 | |
| Corporate | 1,830 | 950 | 715 | 313 | |
| Specialties | 192 | 169 | 168 | 176 | 148 |
| Cement | 1,940 | ||||
| Mid-America Group | 1,305 | ||||
| Southeast Group | 583 | ||||
| corporate | 365 | ||||
| Total | 14,994 | 14,393 | 10,581 | 10,132 | 6,962 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $479.17 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 28.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/17/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -32.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $522.57 | $588.64 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.3% | -18.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.4% | 28.3% |
| Downside Capture | 220.95 | 115.01 |
| Upside Capture | 71.28 | 66.32 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.3% | 38.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.90 | 1.36 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.83 |
| Up Beta | -0.91 | 0.93 | -0.73 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Down Beta | -0.60 | 0.97 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 0.86 | 0.60 |
| Up Capture | 81% | 117% | 71% | 39% | 56% | 66% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 127 | 392 |
| Down Capture | 217% | 217% | 180% | 128% | 110% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 34 | 67 | 124 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLM | -23.6% | 28.3% | -0.96 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.8% | 17.9% | 0.37 | 65.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 13.0% | 0.85 | 38.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 7.7% | 29.6% | 0.25 | 18.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.7% | 20.8% | 1.64 | -31.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 13.6% | -0.16 | 41.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.0% | 44.5% | -0.58 | 11.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLM | 6.8% | 27.2% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.6% | 19.1% | 0.18 | 69.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 61.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.9% | 0.80 | 9.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.40 | -2.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 54.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.2% | 52.3% | 0.43 | 25.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLM | 11.2% | 31.0% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.5% | 20.7% | 0.41 | 67.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 57.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 11.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.17 | 52.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.9% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 17.9% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -5.2% | -2.9% | -7.2% |
| 4/30/2026 | 1.0% | 0.4% | -5.1% |
| 2/11/2026 | -6.6% | -6.5% | -16.9% |
| 11/4/2025 | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 3.8% | 6.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | -2.2% | -1.5% | -11.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.6% | -0.2% | 2.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.7% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -1.6% | -6.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 8.9% | 15.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -6.5% | -16.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -5.2% | -2.9% | -7.2% |
| 4/30/2026 | 1.0% | 0.4% | -5.1% |
| 2/11/2026 | -6.6% | -6.5% | -16.9% |
| 11/4/2025 | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 3.8% | 6.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | -2.2% | -1.5% | -11.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.6% | -0.2% | 2.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 0.1% | -2.4% | -6.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | -2.6% | -0.5% | -6.4% |
| 2/14/2024 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 15.2% |
| 11/1/2023 | 7.4% | 8.7% | 13.8% |
| 7/27/2023 | -2.9% | -1.7% | -4.6% |
| 5/4/2023 | 5.6% | 8.8% | 12.8% |
| 2/15/2023 | 7.5% | 1.4% | -6.8% |
| 11/2/2022 | -3.4% | 2.9% | 9.5% |
| 7/28/2022 | 2.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% |
| 5/3/2022 | 3.1% | -6.4% | -5.0% |
| 2/10/2022 | 1.0% | 2.1% | -3.0% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.4% | 8.9% | 2.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.0% | -0.3% | 4.7% |
| 5/4/2021 | 5.3% | 5.9% | 0.8% |
| 2/9/2021 | 1.7% | 8.2% | 13.5% |
| 10/29/2020 | 6.5% | 2.6% | 9.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.7% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -1.6% | -6.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 8.9% | 15.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -6.5% | -16.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/30/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Annualized Cash Flow Improvements | Reported | 350.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 7.20 Bil | 7.30 Bil | 7.40 Bil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 7.16 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.36 Bil | 2.43 Bil | 2.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.43 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net earnings from continuing operations attributable to Martin Marietta | Reported | 1.06 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 1.10 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Volume % growth | Reported | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Organic volume % growth | Reported | 1.0% | 2.0% | |||||
| 2026 ASP % growth | Reported | 1.5% | 2.5% | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Organic ASP % growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | |||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 7.00 Bil | 7.16 Bil | 8.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.60 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations | Reported | 2.36 Bil | 2.43 Bil | 8.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.23 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 550.00 Mil | 575.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 575.00 Mil for 2026 | ||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net earnings from continuing operations attributable to Martin Marietta | Reported | 1.04 Bil | 1.10 Bil | 1.16 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Consolidated net earnings attributable to Martin Marietta | Reported | 1.24 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 1.36 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Aggregates Volume % growth | Reported | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | ||||
| 2026 Aggregates ASP % growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 6.42 Bil | 6.60 Bil | 6.78 Bil | 7.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.16 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Aggregates Gross profit | Reported | 1.81 Bil | 1.85 Bil | 1.90 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Other Building Materials Gross profit | Reported | 80.00 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Specialties Business Gross profit | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 160.00 Mil | 170.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations | Reported | 2.16 Bil | 2.23 Bil | 2.31 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.41 Bil | 2.48 Bil | 2.56 Bil | 7.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.32 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest expense, net of interest income | Reported | 200.00 Mil | 205.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Estimated tax rate | Reported | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | ||||
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 550.00 Mil | 575.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Aggregates Volume % growth | Reported | 4.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.5% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Aggregates ASP % growth | Reported | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.3% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 6.08 Bil | 6.16 Bil | 6.25 Bil | -11.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 6.97 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.30 Bil | 2.32 Bil | 2.34 Bil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 2.30 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Aggregates Volume % growth | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Aggregates ASP % growth | Reported | |||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perez, Laree E | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 613.32 | 1,038 | 636,626 | 9,455,554 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perez, Laree E | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 613.32 | 1,038 | 636,626 | 9,455,554 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $80.5 Mil | 10.5% | 10 | ADD +20.3% | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $53.2 Mil | 6.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $53.6 Mil | 6.2% | 28 | ADD +40.0% | 13F |
| Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca | $88.3 Mil | 6.0% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $15.4 Mil | 5.4% | 14 | TRIM -18.2% | 13F |
| RDST Capital LLC | $56.0 Mil | 5.4% | 20 | TRIM -6.3% | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $60.7 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +13.1% | 13F |
| Coalescence Partners Investment Management, LP | $18.1 Mil | 3.9% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Progeny 3, Inc. | $66.6 Mil | 3.6% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP | $94.5 Mil | 3.4% | 48 | TRIM -17.4% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $157.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | $37.6 Mil | 3.1% | 45 | ADD +25.0% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $190.1 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $23.4 Mil | 1.6% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $13.3 Mil | 1.2% | 42 | ADD +10.3% | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $19.0 Mil | 0.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $190.1 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $53.2 Mil | 6.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $19.0 Mil | 0.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Coalescence Partners Investment Management, LP | $18.1 Mil | 3.9% | 12 | New | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $53.6 Mil | 6.2% | 28 | ADD +40.0% | 13F |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | $37.6 Mil | 3.1% | 45 | ADD +25.0% | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $80.5 Mil | 10.5% | 10 | ADD +20.3% | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $60.7 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +13.1% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $13.3 Mil | 1.2% | 42 | ADD +10.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $190.1 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $157.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP | $94.5 Mil | 3.4% | 48 | TRIM -17.4% | 13F |
| Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca | $88.3 Mil | 6.0% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $80.5 Mil | 10.5% | 10 | ADD +20.3% | 13F |
| Progeny 3, Inc. | $66.6 Mil | 3.6% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $60.7 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +13.1% | 13F |
| RDST Capital LLC | $56.0 Mil | 5.4% | 20 | TRIM -6.3% | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $53.6 Mil | 6.2% | 28 | ADD +40.0% | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $53.2 Mil | 6.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | $37.6 Mil | 3.1% | 45 | ADD +25.0% | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $23.4 Mil | 1.6% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $19.0 Mil | 0.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Coalescence Partners Investment Management, LP | $18.1 Mil | 3.9% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $15.4 Mil | 5.4% | 14 | TRIM -18.2% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $13.3 Mil | 1.2% | 42 | ADD +10.3% | 13F |
MLM Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is neutral pending more data. The company is executing a promising strategic shift into higher-margin materials, supported by infrastructure demand. However, core business momentum has slowed, with organic volume growth decelerating to 2.3% in the latest quarter. The upcoming earnings report must confirm the new portfolio can offset this slowdown.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional / CommodityRevenue = (Aggregates Volume x Aggregates ASP) + (Specialties Volume x Specialties ASP) + Other Building Materials Revenue Price-cost spread in the Aggregates segment, driven by pricing power outpacing cost inflation, and margin expansion in the growing Specialties segment.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the company is successfully building a more durable business, though near-term organic trends are weakening.
- The LNA combination establishes the company as the nation's leading producer of limestone products.
- Management has identified $350 million in run-rate pretax cash flow improvement opportunities.
- Over 70% of planned data center and manufacturing construction is within 55 miles of a company facility.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised by 2.0% in July 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The core aggregates business is showing clear signs of slowing, with both volume and pricing growth decelerating significantly. This may signal a cyclical peak that the LNA acquisition cannot fully offset.
- Organic aggregates shipments grew just 2.3% in Q2 2026, a sharp slowdown from 7.2% in Q1 2026.
- Organic mix-adjusted pricing grew 3.7%, lagging peer Vulcan Materials' 5% growth in the same period.
- Trailing-twelve-month gross margin declined 1.8 percentage points to 28.2%.
- The company affirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance despite raising its revenue outlook.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregates Shipments (Volume) Growth | Organic aggregates shipments grew 2.3% year-over-year in Q2 2026, while total shipments increased 17.0% to 61.6 million tons. - Decelerating | While total shipment growth accelerated due to recent acquisitions, the underlying organic volume growth has decelerated for the first time in four quarters. Management noted that strong organic shipment momentum in the Central and West Divisions contributed to growth, but the overall organic trend indicates a slowdown in core demand. |
| Aggregates Average Selling Price (ASP) Growth | Organic average selling price (ASP) increased 3.7% year-over-year in Q2 2026 on a mix-adjusted basis, while reported ASP decreased 2.0%. - Decelerating | Management attributes the negative 2.0% reported ASP to acquisition mix headwinds. While the underlying organic, mix-adjusted pricing remains positive at 3.7%, this figure still represents a clear deceleration from prior periods, suggesting moderating pricing power. |
| Aggregates Shipments (tons) | (Q2 2026) | Measures the physical volume of aggregates sold, indicating underlying demand from construction activity. Growth signals a strong market. |
| Aggregates Average Selling Price (ASP) per ton | (Q2 2026) | Indicates the realized price per unit of aggregates. Rising ASP demonstrates pricing power and can offset cost inflation. The reported figure can be affected by geographic and acquisition mix. |
Strategic Overhaul vs. Organic Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the transformational LNA acquisition and focus on aggregates creates a higher-quality earnings stream, supported by durable infrastructure and data center demand that will power through near-term softness.
CORE TENSION
Can the portfolio transformation and secular tailwinds offset the organic slowdown from 7.2% to 2.3% volume growth, which prompted a recent -8.0% post-earnings stock decline?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears. The deceleration in core KPIs is factual and the market has reacted negatively, shifting the burden of proof to the company's next earnings report.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the sharp deceleration in organic volumes to 2.3% and pricing lagging peers as a clear sign of a cyclical peak, which will pressure margins and make the LNA integration more difficult.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
September 16, 2026 | Trade Receivable Facility Matures Watch: The company's Trade Receivable Facility matures. |
10/28/2026 | Negative Peer Read-Through Watch: Peer reports of weak volumes, pricing, or outlooks for construction materials, particularly in overlapping geographies. |
in connection with the release of its third-quarter financial results | Updated Full-Year Guidance Watch: Company will provide updated full-year 2026 guidance reflecting the LNA transaction. |
11/3/2026 | Peer CRH Earnings Report Watch: Peer CRH (CRH) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Margin Disappointment at Q3 Earnings Watch: Q3 results showing continued gross margin compression or a full-year EBITDA guide that is not raised despite LNA contribution. |
No set date | LNA Integration Headwinds Watch: Management commentary on integration challenges, higher-than-expected costs, or a weaker-than-expected contribution from LNA in the updated guidance. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-24 | Lhoist North America Combination Completed Details: The company announced on August 24 that it had completed its combination with Lhoist North America on August 21, 2026. | -0.6% $534.05 -> $530.88 |
2026-08-12 | LNA Financing and Dividend Increase Details: The company announced pricing for a multi-tranche debt offering on August 12 to fund the LNA deal and, on August 13, increased its quarterly cash dividend. | -1.6% $552.77 -> $543.88 |
2026-07-30 | Q2 Earnings and Guidance Update Details: On July 30, the company reported Q2 revenues increased 21%, raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance by 2.0%, but reaffirmed its Adjusted EBITDA guidance. | -7.8% $568.74 -> $524.29 |
2026-06-29 | Lhoist North America Combination Announced Details: The company announced a definitive agreement to combine with Lhoist North America for $13.5 billion in cash and stock, expected to close in the second half of 2026. | -6.4% $615.06 -> $575.77 |
2026-04-30 | Q1 Earnings and New Frontier Acquisition Details: On April 30, the company reported Q1 revenues increased 17%, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and announced a definitive agreement to acquire New Frontier Materials. | +0.3% $610.98 -> $612.62 |
2026-03-21 | Analyst Upgrade to Buy Details: An analyst note on March 21 upgraded the stock to a buy, citing strong operating margins, positive FY26 EBITDA guidance, and robust dividend growth. | +1.8% $565.74 -> $575.83 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MLM trades at roughly 29% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.2x the market), around the 75th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
VMC - Vulcan Materials Company
Pure-Play U.S. PeerVMC offers a similar pure-play exposure to U.S. aggregates markets without the integration complexity of MLM's recent large-scale LNA combination. The company recently posted stronger organic pricing.
CRH - CRH plc
Global Diversified LeaderCRH provides global diversification and a more integrated model across a wider range of materials and building solutions. Its revenue base is 5.8 times larger than MLM's, offering greater scale.
MLM is a geographically-entrenched, aggregates-led materials supplier transforming into a more durable, higher-margin business by acquiring upstream assets and shedding cyclical downstream operations.
MLM's core business is selling heavy, low-cost materials where transportation is a major cost component, creating local moats around its quarries. The company is actively optimizing its portfolio, divesting cement and concrete to focus on its more profitable aggregates business. The recent large-scale combination with Lhoist North America significantly expands its high-margin Specialties segment, adding another durable earnings stream tied to industrial and environmental applications.
Short-term weather impacts on quarterly shipments, minor fluctuations in residential construction data.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful integration of the transformational Lhoist North America combination, which closed in August 2026, and the realization of expected synergies and cash flow benefits.
Specialties
$441M TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
Sells high-purity magnesia-based products and dolomitic lime to domestic and worldwide customers in environmental, industrial, agricultural, and specialty applications, including steel production.
Who Pays & How
Industrial and agricultural companies pay for these products for use in applications like flame retardants, wastewater treatment, and steel production. Customers choose this segment for its specific product chemistries and quality.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Construction Materials Resources |
| Construction Europe |
| Aggregates Business |
| Concrete Products |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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