Adobe (ADBE)
Market Price (9/24/2026): $240.56 | Market Cap: $95.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Adobe (ADBE)
Market Price (9/24/2026): $240.56Market Cap: $95.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 11% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 29 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% | Key risksADBE key risks include [1] intensifying competition from AI-native platforms and lower-cost rivals that challenge its market dominance, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 29 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% |
| Key risksADBE key risks include [1] intensifying competition from AI-native platforms and lower-cost rivals that challenge its market dominance, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Adobe (ADBE) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Investor Uncertainty Post-Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Amid Leadership Transitions.
Adobe's stock experienced a significant decline following its Q2 Fiscal 2026 earnings report on June 11, 2026, despite the company reporting record revenue of $6.62 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $5.96, both exceeding analyst estimates. This downturn, which saw the stock bottom at $190.12 by June 25, reflected investor apprehension regarding the departure of CFO Dan Durn shortly after the earnings call and an ongoing search for a new CEO.
2. Lingering Concerns over AI Monetization Strategy and Competitive Pressures.
Throughout the period, a persistent concern among investors was Adobe's ability to effectively monetize its artificial intelligence (AI) offerings, such as Firefly and GenStudio, and the timing of its freemium monetization strategy. Despite robust AI-first Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth exceeding 150% year-over-year in Q3 Fiscal 2026, market participants worried about the potential impact of increasing competition from major players like Microsoft and Google on the economics of its core Creative Cloud business.
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Adobe (ADBE) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Investor Uncertainty Post-Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Amid Leadership Transitions.
Adobe's stock experienced a significant decline following its Q2 Fiscal 2026 earnings report on June 11, 2026, despite the company reporting record revenue of $6.62 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $5.96, both exceeding analyst estimates. This downturn, which saw the stock bottom at $190.12 by June 25, reflected investor apprehension regarding the departure of CFO Dan Durn shortly after the earnings call and an ongoing search for a new CEO.
2. Lingering Concerns over AI Monetization Strategy and Competitive Pressures.
Throughout the period, a persistent concern among investors was Adobe's ability to effectively monetize its artificial intelligence (AI) offerings, such as Firefly and GenStudio, and the timing of its freemium monetization strategy. Despite robust AI-first Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth exceeding 150% year-over-year in Q3 Fiscal 2026, market participants worried about the potential impact of increasing competition from major players like Microsoft and Google on the economics of its core Creative Cloud business.
3. CEO Succession and Executive Departures Causing Market Unease.
The announcement on September 3, 2026, that Anil Chakravarthy would succeed Shantanu Narayen as President and CEO, effective December 1, 2026, coupled with the simultaneous departure of David Wadhwani, a key executive and potential CEO candidate, led to a nearly 7% decline in Adobe's stock on September 4, 2026. This leadership shake-up during a crucial phase for the company's AI initiatives contributed to investor apprehension regarding future strategic direction and executive stability.
4. Significant Insider Selling Activity.
Following the Q2 Fiscal 2026 earnings report, Adobe executives engaged in insider selling transactions totaling approximately $9.79 million. This substantial insider selling activity may have further contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure on the stock during the specified period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.1% change in ADBE stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 259.21 | 240.69 | -7.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,453 | 25,970 | 6.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.5% | 28.0% | -4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.7 | 13.1 | -11.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 410 | 395 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADBE | -7.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 2.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.4% | -26.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.3% change in ADBE stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 262.41 | 240.69 | -8.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,769 | 25,970 | 9.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.0% | 28.0% | -6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 13.1 | -15.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 417 | 395 | 5.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADBE | -8.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.5% | 4.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 41.1% | -11.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.5% change in ADBE stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 356.70 | 240.69 | -32.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 22,601 | 25,970 | 14.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.4% | 28.0% | -7.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.2 | 13.1 | -41.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 428 | 395 | 8.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADBE | -32.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.3% | 11.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 49.6% | -2.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -57.0% change in ADBE stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -75.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 559.34 | 240.69 | -57.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,429 | 25,970 | 40.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.3% | 28.0% | 6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.8 | 13.1 | -75.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 458 | 395 | 15.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -57.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADBE | -57.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.0% | 36.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 126.9% | 29.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADBE Return | 13% | -41% | 77% | -25% | -21% | -32% | -52% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -31% | 55% | 32% | 16% | -9% | 98% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADBE Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 25% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 28% | 62% | 67% | 53% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADBE Max Drawdown | -20% | -51% | -18% | -31% | -33% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -40% | -17% | -22% | -31% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, CRM, ORCL, GOOGL, ADSK. See ADBE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADBE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -15.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Adobe's stock fell -9.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 10.8% gain to breakeven.
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Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | ADBE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 892 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1486 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Adobe's stock fell -9.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 10.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Adobe (ADBE)
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is a global software company providing essential tools and services across digital media, digital experience, and publishing. Operating primarily through subscription-based models, Adobe empowers a wide range of individuals and businesses with software solutions designed for creativity, document management, and customer engagement.
A core part of Adobe's business is its Digital Media segment, best known for enabling content creation and management. The flagship offering here is Creative Cloud, a comprehensive subscription service providing access to industry-standard creative applications such as Photoshop, Illustrator, and Premiere Pro. This suite serves a vast audience including professional artists, designers, marketers, and general consumers. This segment also features Document Cloud, a platform offering robust cloud-based document services, notably recognized for its PDF solutions.
Additionally, Adobe's Digital Experience segment delivers an integrated platform of applications and services that help businesses manage, measure, and optimize their customer experiences, spanning from advanced analytics to e-commerce solutions. This segment targets marketers, advertisers, agencies, and executives who aim to enhance their digital presence and customer interactions. A smaller Publishing and Advertising segment provides further specialized offerings, including e-learning solutions, web conferencing, and advertising cloud services.
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1. The Microsoft Office for creative professionals.
2. A Salesforce for digital marketing and customer experience.
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- Creative Cloud: A subscription service providing access to a comprehensive suite of creative software applications for content creation, publishing, and promotion.
- Document Cloud: A unified cloud-based platform offering services and solutions for creating, managing, and sharing documents.
- Digital Experience Platform: An integrated platform with applications and services designed to help businesses manage, measure, and optimize customer experiences from analytics to commerce.
- Advertising Cloud: A set of offerings focused on providing solutions for advertising, including management and optimization.
- Publishing and Advertising Solutions: Products and services that include e-learning solutions, technical document publishing, web conferencing, and high-end printing.
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Adobe Inc. (ADBE) - Major Customers
Adobe Inc. serves a broad and diversified customer base, encompassing both individual users and large enterprises. Given the extensive reach of its products across various industries and user types, its major customers can be best described through the following categories:
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Creative Professionals and Content Creators
This category includes individual content creators, workers, marketers, educators, enthusiasts, and communicators who utilize Adobe's Digital Media products, most notably the Creative Cloud suite (e.g., Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro). These customers range from freelancers and small businesses to creative teams within large enterprises seeking tools for design, video editing, web development, and more.
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Enterprises and Businesses for Digital Experience Management
Adobe's Digital Experience segment primarily serves brands and businesses. These customers are typically large organizations, marketers, advertisers, agencies, publishers, merchandisers, merchants, web analysts, data scientists, developers, and C-suite executives who leverage Adobe's integrated platform and applications to create, manage, execute, measure, monetize, and optimize customer experiences.
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Document and Publishing Users
This category covers individuals and businesses utilizing Adobe's Document Cloud for services related to documents (e.g., PDF creation and editing with Acrobat). It also includes customers for its Publishing and Advertising segment, which offers solutions such as e-learning tools, technical document publishing, web conferencing, and web application development, catering to both individual professional needs and broader organizational requirements.
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Major suppliers for Adobe Inc. (ADBE):
- Amazon Web Services (AWS) (Symbol: AMZN)
- Microsoft Azure (Symbol: MSFT)
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Shantanu Narayen, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Shantanu Narayen has served as Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Adobe Inc. since December 2007. He joined Adobe in 1998, serving in various leadership roles before becoming CEO. Before his tenure at Adobe, Narayen held senior management positions at Apple from 1989 to 1995 and was the director of desktop and collaboration products for Silicon Graphics. In 1996, he co-founded Pictra Inc., a company that pioneered digital photo sharing over the Internet. As CEO of Adobe, he led the company's transformation from a desktop software model to a cloud-based subscription service. He also spearheaded the $1.8 billion acquisition of Omniture, Inc. in 2009.
Dan Durn, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Finance, Technology Services, and Operations
Dan Durn was appointed as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Finance, Technology Services, and Operations at Adobe in October 2021. He brings extensive expertise in global strategy, financial planning, operations, and mergers and acquisitions from decades in the technology industry. Before joining Adobe, Durn held significant CFO roles, including Senior Vice President and CFO at Applied Materials (2017-2021), Executive Vice President and CFO at NXP Semiconductors N.V. (following its merger with Freescale Semiconductor), and CFO and Executive Vice President at GlobalFoundries Inc. He also served as Senior Vice President and CFO at Freescale Semiconductor Holdings Ltd. from June 2014 to December 2015, a company that was later acquired by NXP. Earlier in his career, Durn held leadership positions in private equity and investment banking, including Vice President of Mergers and Acquisitions in the technology practice at Goldman Sachs & Company, where he advised technology companies on corporate strategy and acquisitions.
Anil Chakravarthy, President, Digital Experience Business
Anil Chakravarthy joined Adobe in January 2020 and serves as the President of the Digital Experience Business. In this role, he drives the vision and operations for Adobe's Customer Experience Orchestration business and oversees worldwide field operations. Prior to Adobe, Chakravarthy was the CEO of Informatica from 2015 to 2020, where he successfully led the company's transformation to cloud and subscription services. Under his leadership, Informatica transitioned to a private company following a $5.3 billion buyout. He also held several leadership positions at Symantec Corporation, including Executive Vice President of Information Security, and led product management for Enterprise Security Services at VeriSign. Chakravarthy began his career as a management consultant at McKinsey & Company, co-leading the E-Business Practice.
David Wadhwani, President, Creativity & Productivity Business
David Wadhwani is responsible for the success of Adobe's global Creativity & Productivity business, encompassing product management, marketing, engineering, and strategic partnerships. This is his second tenure at Adobe; he initially joined in 2005 through the company's acquisition of Macromedia, Inc., where he was Vice President of Developer Products. Wadhwani previously served as President and CEO of AppDynamics, where he led its transformation into a SaaS-first business. AppDynamics was later acquired by Cisco. Most recently, he was a Venture Partner at Greylock Partners before rejoining Adobe. During his prior time at Adobe, as Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Digital Media business, he was instrumental in advancing the company's category leadership and its successful transition to a cloud-based subscription model.
Gloria Chen, Chief People Officer and Executive Vice President, Employee Experience
Gloria Chen is the Chief People Officer and Executive Vice President of Employee Experience at Adobe, a role she assumed in early 2020. She leads all aspects of Adobe's global people and workplace strategy, including talent development, diversity and inclusion, and real estate. With over 25 years at Adobe, Chen has been pivotal in numerous company transformations, shaping its e-commerce strategy, building its enterprise business, and managing significant acquisitions and integrations. Her prior roles at Adobe include Chief Strategy Officer, chief of staff to the CEO, and senior leadership positions in worldwide sales operations, customer care, and e-commerce. Before joining Adobe, she was a management consultant at McKinsey & Company and started her career as a software engineer at Cadence Design Systems.
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1. Intensifying Competitive Pressures from AI-Native Tools and Rivals
Adobe faces significant threats from a new generation of AI-native creative tools and competitors such as Canva, Figma, and OpenAI. These emerging players are challenging Adobe's market share, particularly in user interface/user experience (UI/UX) and entry-level creative solutions, and could weaken switching costs for its established creative professional user base. There is also a risk that AI features in creative software could become commoditized, impacting Adobe's ability to differentiate its offerings.2. AI Monetization Uncertainty and Potential Margin Compression
While Adobe is actively integrating AI into its products, there is uncertainty surrounding its ability to effectively monetize these advanced capabilities. The rapid pace of AI advancements necessitates continuous investment in research and development, which could lead to increased costs faster than corresponding revenue growth, potentially resulting in margin pressure. Investors are closely monitoring whether AI-driven revenue can become substantial enough to counteract concerns that creative tools might gradually become commoditized.3. Uncertainty Surrounding the CEO Transition
The announced departure of long-serving CEO Shantanu Narayen introduces a period of uncertainty regarding Adobe's future strategic direction and execution. This leadership change occurs at a critical juncture in the company's transformation and during a rapid evolution of the AI industry, which could impact the pace of future growth and the effectiveness of strategic initiatives.AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Adobe stems from the rapid advancement and widespread adoption of highly capable **generative AI tools** offered by various providers (such as Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, and DALL-E) and integrated into other platforms. These tools enable users to create high-quality images, illustrations, text, and other media with simple prompts, often bypassing the need for extensive manual manipulation within Adobe's traditional Creative Cloud applications like Photoshop and Illustrator. This shift represents a fundamental change in the content creation paradigm, potentially commoditizing certain creative tasks and challenging the long-standing value proposition of Adobe's core Digital Media segment, particularly for users with simpler or more automated content needs. While Adobe is integrating its own generative AI capabilities (e.g., Firefly), the proliferation of external, often free or lower-cost, alternatives poses a direct competitive threat to its subscription model and market dominance in creative workflows.
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Adobe Inc. (ADBE) operates within several large and growing addressable markets globally for its main products and services across its Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising segments.
Digital Media Segment
- Creative Software Market: The global creative software market was valued at approximately USD 100.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 225.56 billion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.66%. North America holds a significant share, accounting for approximately 45% of the global market. Other estimates place the global creative software market at USD 8.73 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 17.35 billion by 2033 (CAGR of 6.7%).
- Digital Media Market: The broader global digital media market was valued at USD 1,057.68 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3,182.74 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 13.02%. North America accounts for approximately 38% of this global market. Another estimate for the global digital media market size was USD 832.99 billion in 2023, with a projection to reach USD 1,902.28 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 12.8%.
- Document Management Market (for Document Cloud): The global document management market size was valued at USD 7.1 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 34.2 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 17.3%. The global enterprise content management (ECM) market, which includes document management, is projected to reach USD 78.4 billion by 2029 with a CAGR of 10.5%.
Digital Experience Segment
- Digital Experience Platform (DXP) Market: The global digital experience platform market was estimated at USD 12,390.4 million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 30,413.4 million by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.7%. North America was the largest revenue-generating market in 2023, accounting for 43.2% of the global market. Another source projects the global DXP market to grow from USD 15.6 billion in 2025 to USD 41.9 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 11.6%.
- Customer Experience Management (CEM) Market: The global customer experience management market was valued at USD 22.35 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 84.22 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 15.80%. North America dominated this market with a 37.30% share in 2025. Other projections for the global CEM market include reaching USD 32.3 billion by 2025 or USD 47.72 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 15.2% from 2026. North America held the largest revenue share of 42.4% in 2025.
- Marketing Automation Market: The global marketing automation market size was valued at USD 6.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 19.38 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 12.9%. North America leads this industry. Another estimate for the global marketing automation market size was USD 6.65 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 15.58 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 15.3%. North America dominated with a 43.6% revenue share in 2024.
- E-commerce Platform Market: The global e-commerce platform market size was estimated at USD 9.40 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 45.60 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 20.2%. The Asia Pacific region dominated the global market with the largest revenue share of 44.6% in 2024. Another source valued the global e-commerce platform market size at USD 11.55 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 61.83 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 20.49%. North America holds approximately 34% of the market share.
- Data and Analytics Software Market: The global data and analytics software market was valued at USD 141.91 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 345.32 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 13.6%. North America dominated this market with a revenue share of over 36% in 2023.
Publishing and Advertising Segment
- AdTech Market (for Advertising Cloud): The global AdTech market size was valued at USD 1,223.1 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 4,045.3 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 14.2%. North America is expected to hold a 37.0% share of revenue in 2024. Other figures for the global AdTech market include a valuation of USD 986.87 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 3,227.25 billion by 2034 (CAGR 14.20%).
- E-learning Market: The global e-learning market size was valued at USD 439.92 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.4% during the forecast period of 2026 to 2034. Asia-Pacific accounted for the largest revenue share in the global e-learning market in 2025. Another projection states the global e-learning market is valued at USD 231.93 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass USD 1,086.07 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 15.2%. North America held 34.74% of the e-learning market share in 2025.
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Adobe (ADBE) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
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AI-Driven Innovation and Monetization: Adobe is significantly investing in and integrating artificial intelligence (AI) across its product portfolio, with AI-first applications and features being a primary growth engine. This includes offerings like Firefly, GenStudio, and AI Assistant in Acrobat, which are designed to enhance creative workflows, automate complex tasks, and deliver personalized experiences. The company has seen its AI-first Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) more than triple year-over-year. Monetization of these AI features, potentially through generative credits and value-based pricing, is crucial for increasing revenue from both new and existing users.
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Expansion of Creative Cloud and Document Cloud Subscriber Base: Adobe aims to broaden its customer base beyond traditional creative professionals to include business professionals and general consumers. This expansion is facilitated by freemium offerings and AI-powered productivity tools within popular products like Acrobat and Express, driving new user acquisition and subscription growth.
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Growth in Digital Experience Segment and Enterprise Solutions: The Digital Experience segment, particularly the Adobe Experience Platform (AEP) and associated applications such as GenStudio, is a significant driver of enterprise revenue growth. These solutions help businesses with customer experience orchestration, content supply chain management, and delivering personalized digital experiences at scale. AEP and native applications have shown strong ARR growth, and enterprises are increasingly adopting AI-powered platforms like AEP and GenStudio.
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Deepening Customer Engagement and Cross-selling: Adobe's strategy involves increasing engagement with existing customers through new AI capabilities in flagship applications and scaling enterprise adoption of AI-driven content generation and customer experience solutions. This approach focuses on driving deeper spending within existing enterprise accounts, leading to continued growth through cross-sell and upsell opportunities.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Adobe (ADBE) over the Last 3-5 Years
Share Repurchases
- Adobe's board of directors authorized a new stock repurchase program of up to $25 billion in common stock through March 14, 2028.
- The company repurchased $2.5 billion worth of its stock in Q2 2024 and $4.61 billion in fiscal 2023. Adobe also spent approximately $11.28 billion on buybacks in fiscal 2025.
- A previous stock repurchase authority granted the company to repurchase up to $15 billion in common stock through fiscal year 2024.
Share Issuance
No specific dollar amount of shares issued has been identified within the last 3-5 years. The company's share repurchase programs are designed to minimize dilution from stock issuances and reduce the share count over time.Outbound Investments
- In November 2025, Adobe entered an agreement to acquire Semrush Holdings, Inc. for approximately $1.9 billion in cash, aiming to enhance its brand visibility platform capabilities and AI SEO optimization tools.
- Adobe acquired Frame.io, a cloud-based video collaboration platform, for $1.3 billion in August 2021.
- A proposed $20 billion acquisition of Figma in 2023 was terminated due to regulatory concerns over reduced competition.
Capital Expenditures
- Adobe's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $179 million.
- Capital expenditures have varied, reaching a 5-year low of $35.187 million in 2021, peaking at $442 million in 2022, and then decreasing to $360 million in 2023 and $183 million in 2024.
- In fiscal 2025, strategic initiatives driving capital expenditures were centered on enhancing product offerings and integrating AI capabilities.
Peer Outperformance in Application Software
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | Adobe | 11.2% | 13.1x | -33.5% | -53.1% | -61.3% | — |
| ACIW | ACI Worldwide | 9.9% | 22.1x | -6.0% | 111.2% | 56.7% | +118pp |
| MANH | Manhattan Associates | 10.0% | 58.8x | -1.6% | 8.2% | 31.0% | +92pp |
| PTC | PTC | 12.9% | 13.2x | -31.2% | -0.2% | 13.7% | +75pp |
| CRM | Salesforce | 9.9% | 20.2x | -2.0% | 17.3% | -15.2% | +46pp |
| OKTA | Okta | 14.2% | 120.9x | 122.7% | 154.5% | -19.0% | +42pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 9 | 62.1% | 192.4% | 276.6% | TTMI 904% · FLEX 703% · SANM 465% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 27 | 94.9% | 99.9% | 105.2% | AXTI 749% · AEHR 516% · KLAC 434% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 35.0% | 78.8% | 99.6% | CLMB 399% · AVT 204% · SNX 176% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 8.8% | 80.9% | 70.6% | AAOI 1296% · FEIM 1001% · LITE 982% |
| Electronic Components | 26 | 37.0% | 75.5% | 65.3% | CLS 3725% · BELFA 1394% · COHR 389% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 26.7% | 39.4% | 40.7% | POET 1815% · MU 1384% · NVDA 926% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 20 | 24.9% | 95.5% | 36.4% | STX 1135% · DELL 1057% · SMCI 1011% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 3.8% | 51.7% | 31.2% | DOCN 71% · VRSN 37% · GDDY 36% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 26 | -15.3% | 12.1% | -11.3% | PI 189% · OSIS 116% · KEYS 98% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -27.9% | -16.5% | -39.3% | CHRN 539637% · APLD 1169% · TSSI 744% |
| Application Software ← | 125 | -30.5% | -13.8% | -46.7% | VIDA 153233% · INLX 5065% · PLTR 572% |
| Systems Software | 74 | -20.1% | 8.9% | -58.0% | QNC 666% · ZETA 397% · PANW 381% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 239.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 194.8 |
| Rev LTM | 43,938 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,455 |
| FCF LTM | 15,154 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,037 |
| CFO LTM | 15,750 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,664 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 41.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 34.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 194.8 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 21.0 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 15.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Media | 17,649 | 15,864 | 14,216 | 12,842 | 11,520 |
| Digital Experience | 5,864 | 5,366 | 4,893 | 4,422 | 3,867 |
| Publishing and Advertising | 256 | 275 | 300 | 342 | 398 |
| Total | 23,769 | 21,505 | 19,409 | 17,606 | 15,785 |
| $ Mil | 2002 | 2001 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graphics | 466 | ||
| OEM PostScript and Other | 288 | 5 | 75 |
| ePaper Solutions | 288 | 16 | 94 |
| Cross-media Publishing | 223 | 26 | |
| Web Publishing | 35 | 307 | |
| Print Publishing | 272 | ||
| Total | 1,265 | 81 | 748 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $240.69 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 96.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/14/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -33.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $257.13 | $264.54 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -6.4% | -9.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.8% | 40.9% |
| Downside Capture | 22.30 | 92.53 |
| Upside Capture | 116.62 | 28.56 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.6% | 11.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.39 | -0.53 | -0.12 | 0.02 | 0.31 | 0.86 |
| Up Beta | 0.97 | -2.23 | -1.43 | -0.51 | -0.13 | 0.64 |
| Down Beta | 0.24 | -1.82 | 0.49 | 0.15 | 0.42 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | 271% | 179% | 35% | 24% | 18% | 43% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 27 | 35 | 66 | 125 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 20% | -120% | -24% | 10% | 70% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 15 | 29 | 61 | 126 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADBE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | -34.0% | 40.8% | -0.92 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 38.9% | 26.5% | 1.21 | -2.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.2% | 13.0% | 0.88 | 11.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 29.3% | 0.44 | -9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.6% | 20.7% | 1.75 | -4.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 13.7% | 0.08 | 12.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.2% | 44.8% | -0.46 | 9.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADBE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | -18.2% | 38.0% | -0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.8% | 26.0% | 0.71 | 51.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 54.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 19.5% | 0.41 | 4.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.8% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 36.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.6% | 0.41 | 24.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADBE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 9.4% | 35.2% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.90 | 64.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 62.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 40.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.2% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 17.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/21/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/10/2026 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 6/11/2026 | -6.8% | -10.8% | 0.9% |
| 3/12/2026 | -7.6% | -8.8% | -11.0% |
| 12/10/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -4.5% |
| 9/11/2025 | -0.3% | 4.8% | -3.7% |
| 6/12/2025 | -5.3% | -8.9% | -12.5% |
| 3/12/2025 | -13.9% | -11.6% | -20.2% |
| 12/11/2024 | -13.7% | -19.8% | -25.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 18 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 4.1% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -10.2% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.5% | 16.3% | 23.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -22.9% | -25.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/10/2026 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 6/11/2026 | -6.8% | -10.8% | 0.9% |
| 3/12/2026 | -7.6% | -8.8% | -11.0% |
| 12/10/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -4.5% |
| 9/11/2025 | -0.3% | 4.8% | -3.7% |
| 6/12/2025 | -5.3% | -8.9% | -12.5% |
| 3/12/2025 | -13.9% | -11.6% | -20.2% |
| 12/11/2024 | -13.7% | -19.8% | -25.0% |
| 9/12/2024 | -8.5% | -10.2% | -15.5% |
| 6/13/2024 | 14.5% | 16.3% | 23.5% |
| 3/14/2024 | -13.7% | -10.4% | -17.6% |
| 12/13/2023 | -6.3% | -4.5% | -4.3% |
| 9/14/2023 | -4.2% | -6.9% | -0.6% |
| 6/15/2023 | 0.9% | -1.3% | 8.4% |
| 3/15/2023 | 5.9% | 8.4% | 13.7% |
| 12/15/2022 | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% |
| 9/15/2022 | -16.8% | -22.9% | -20.7% |
| 6/16/2022 | -1.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| 3/22/2022 | -9.3% | -0.0% | -10.5% |
| 12/16/2021 | -10.2% | -10.5% | -17.4% |
| 9/21/2021 | -3.1% | -10.4% | -2.1% |
| 6/17/2021 | 2.6% | 4.9% | 9.2% |
| 3/23/2021 | -1.9% | 1.1% | 10.2% |
| 12/10/2020 | -1.4% | 1.3% | -2.0% |
| 9/15/2020 | -4.4% | -2.2% | 1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 18 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 4.1% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -10.2% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.5% | 16.3% | 23.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -22.9% | -25.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 08/31/2026 | 09/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2026 | 06/15/2026 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2026 | 03/25/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/15/2026 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/17/2024 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/17/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 08/31/2026 | 09/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2026 | 06/15/2026 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2026 | 03/25/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/15/2026 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/17/2024 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2021 | 01/21/2022 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2021 | 09/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2021 | 06/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2021 | 03/31/2021 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2020 | 01/15/2021 | 10-K |
| 08/31/2020 | 09/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2020 | 06/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2020 | 03/25/2020 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2019 | 01/21/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/11/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 9/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 6.80 Bil | 6.83 Bil | 6.85 Bil | 1.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.70 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue | Reported | 1.93 Bil | 1.94 Bil | 1.95 Bil | 3.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.88 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue | Reported | 4.67 Bil | 4.68 Bil | 4.70 Bil | 1.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.62 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP operating margin | Reported | 44.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 GAAP operating margin | Reported | 34.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 GAAP Diluted net income per share | Reported | 4.65 | 4.67 | 4.7 | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted net income per share | Reported | 6.3 | 6.33 | 6.35 | 4.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.08 for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Diluted share count | Reported | 389.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Total Adobe ending ARR growth | Reported | 10.2% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.2% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 26.58 Bil | 26.60 Bil | 26.63 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 26.55 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue | Reported | 7.47 Bil | 7.48 Bil | 7.49 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 7.46 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue | Reported | 18.24 Bil | 18.26 Bil | 18.27 Bil | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 18.24 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating margin | Reported | 45.0% | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP operating margin | Reported | 35.0% | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP Diluted net income per share | Reported | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.2 | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted net income per share | Reported | 24.4 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 24.4 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted share count | Reported | 400.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 6/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 6.67 Bil | 6.70 Bil | 6.72 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue | Reported | 1.87 Bil | 1.88 Bil | 1.89 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue | Reported | 4.61 Bil | 4.62 Bil | 4.64 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 EPS | Reported | 6.05 | 6.08 | 6.1 | 4.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.83 for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Adobe ending ARR growth | Reported | 10.2% | ||||||
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 26.50 Bil | 26.55 Bil | 26.60 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue | Reported | 7.44 Bil | 7.46 Bil | 7.48 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue | Reported | 18.21 Bil | 18.24 Bil | 18.27 Bil | ||||
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 24.4 | 24.4 | 24.4 | ||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 6.43 Bil | 6.46 Bil | 6.48 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue | Reported | 1.80 Bil | 1.81 Bil | 1.82 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue | Reported | 4.41 Bil | 4.42 Bil | 4.44 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 44.5% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 EPS | Reported | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.4 | ||||
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 5.8 | 5.83 | 5.85 | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 12/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 6.25 Bil | 6.28 Bil | 6.30 Bil | 2.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.10 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue | Reported | 1.74 Bil | 1.75 Bil | 1.76 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue | Reported | 4.30 Bil | 4.32 Bil | 4.33 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Earnings per share (GAAP) | Reported | 4.55 | 4.58 | 4.6 | 6.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.29 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Earnings per share (Non-GAAP) | Reported | 5.85 | 5.88 | 5.9 | 9.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.38 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Total Adobe ending ARR growth | Reported | 10.2% | ||||||
| 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 25.90 Bil | 26.00 Bil | 26.10 Bil | 9.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 23.68 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue | Reported | 7.35 Bil | 7.38 Bil | 7.40 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue | Reported | 17.75 Bil | 17.82 Bil | 17.90 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Earnings per share (GAAP) | Reported | 17.9 | 18 | 18.1 | 8.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 16.6 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Earnings per share (Non-GAAP) | Reported | 23.3 | 23.4 | 23.5 | 12.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.8 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narayen, Shantanu | Chair and CEO | by trust | Sell | 9182026 | 249.57 | 50,500 | 12,603,319 | 59,578,509 | Form |
| 2 | Narayen, Shantanu | Chair and CEO | by trust | Sell | 9182026 | 251.56 | 74,500 | 18,741,557 | 72,758,499 | Form |
| 3 | Forusz, Jillian | SVP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 7312026 | 264.33 | 416 | 109,961 | 1,010,839 | Form |
| 4 | Ricks, David A | Direct | Buy | 6262026 | 194.51 | 10,000 | 1,945,130 | 3,434,127 | Form | |
| 5 | Forusz, Jillian | SVP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 246.25 | 755 | 185,915 | 867,067 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narayen, Shantanu | Chair and CEO | by trust | Sell | 9182026 | 249.57 | 50,500 | 12,603,319 | 59,578,509 | Form |
| 2 | Narayen, Shantanu | Chair and CEO | by trust | Sell | 9182026 | 251.56 | 74,500 | 18,741,557 | 72,758,499 | Form |
| 3 | Forusz, Jillian | SVP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 7312026 | 264.33 | 416 | 109,961 | 1,010,839 | Form |
| 4 | Ricks, David A | Direct | Buy | 6262026 | 194.51 | 10,000 | 1,945,130 | 3,434,127 | Form | |
| 5 | Forusz, Jillian | SVP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 246.25 | 755 | 185,915 | 867,067 | Form |
| 6 | Narayen, Shantanu | Chair and CEO | by trust | Sell | 4302026 | 243.54 | 75,000 | 18,265,234 | 87,560,611 | Form |
| 7 | Durn, Daniel | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 4222026 | 248.02 | 1,336 | 331,355 | 10,623,392 | Form |
| 8 | Durn, Daniel | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 1272026 | 294.85 | 1,646 | 485,323 | 12,382,167 | Form |
| 9 | Forusz, Jillian | SVP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 337.88 | 149 | 50,344 | 1,157,630 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 24, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family Capital Trust Co | $49.0 Mil | 17.7% | 89 | Hold | 13F |
| Silver Heights Capital Management Inc | $37.2 Mil | 14.3% | 4 | ADD +56.6% | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $108.0 Mil | 5.6% | 21 | ADD +44.3% | 13F |
| Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc. | $21.4 Mil | 5.2% | 21 | ADD +33.0% | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.2 Mil | 5.2% | 27 | TRIM -44.5% | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $43.0 Mil | 5.1% | 24 | TRIM -23.7% | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $127.6 Mil | 3.8% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Long Corridor Asset Management Ltd | $13.4 Mil | 3.3% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $24.3 Mil | 3.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $17.1 Mil | 3.0% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $9.7 Mil | 2.9% | 37 | ADD +22.5% | 13F |
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $72.3 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Hi-Line Capital Management, LLC | $8.0 Mil | 2.5% | 32 | ADD +49.0% | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $9.2 Mil | 1.9% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Jia Investment Alliance PTE. LTD. | $14.6 Mil | 1.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $5.6 Mil | 1.4% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $12.3 Mil | 0.9% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $7.1 Mil | 0.6% | 42 | TRIM -36.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $72.3 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $24.3 Mil | 3.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Long Corridor Asset Management Ltd | $13.4 Mil | 3.3% | 38 | New | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $12.3 Mil | 0.9% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $9.2 Mil | 1.9% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Silver Heights Capital Management Inc | $37.2 Mil | 14.3% | 4 | ADD +56.6% | 13F |
| Hi-Line Capital Management, LLC | $8.0 Mil | 2.5% | 32 | ADD +49.0% | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $108.0 Mil | 5.6% | 21 | ADD +44.3% | 13F |
| Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc. | $21.4 Mil | 5.2% | 21 | ADD +33.0% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $9.7 Mil | 2.9% | 37 | ADD +22.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $410.5 Mil | 4.3% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $262.5 Mil | 2.8% | 21 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 3.1% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Act Two Investors LLC | $17.0 Mil | 3.1% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $12.1 Mil | 3.9% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.2 Mil | 5.2% | 27 | TRIM -44.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $7.1 Mil | 0.6% | 42 | TRIM -36.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $43.0 Mil | 5.1% | 24 | TRIM -23.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $127.6 Mil | 3.8% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $108.0 Mil | 5.6% | 21 | ADD +44.3% | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.2 Mil | 5.2% | 27 | TRIM -44.5% | 13F |
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $72.3 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Family Capital Trust Co | $49.0 Mil | 17.7% | 89 | Hold | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $43.0 Mil | 5.1% | 24 | TRIM -23.7% | 13F |
| Silver Heights Capital Management Inc | $37.2 Mil | 14.3% | 4 | ADD +56.6% | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $24.3 Mil | 3.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc. | $21.4 Mil | 5.2% | 21 | ADD +33.0% | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $17.1 Mil | 3.0% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Jia Investment Alliance PTE. LTD. | $14.6 Mil | 1.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Long Corridor Asset Management Ltd | $13.4 Mil | 3.3% | 38 | New | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $12.3 Mil | 0.9% | 34 | New | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $9.7 Mil | 2.9% | 37 | ADD +22.5% | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $9.2 Mil | 1.9% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Hi-Line Capital Management, LLC | $8.0 Mil | 2.5% | 32 | ADD +49.0% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $7.1 Mil | 0.6% | 42 | TRIM -36.8% | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $5.6 Mil | 1.4% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
ADBE Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Adobe is trading near-term revenue for massive user growth, now over 1 billion monthly active users. AI-specific recurring revenue is growing over 150%, suggesting the strategy is gaining traction. However, decelerating contract growth to 8% and an imminent CEO transition create significant uncertainty until monetization is proven.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Subscription (SaaS) with a Consumption Component(Number of Subscribers x Average Subscription Price) + (Number of AI Credits Consumed x Price per Credit) Operating leverage from scaling the software platform, offset by variable costs associated with AI model training and inference.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests Adobe's pivot to user acquisition is working, creating a large funnel for future monetization.
- Monthly active users surpassed 1 billion, growing over 20% year-over-year.
- AI-first annualized recurring revenue now exceeds $650 million, growing over 150% YoY.
- Creative freemium monthly active users surpassed 100 million, growing over 70% YoY.
- The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue and earnings per share guidance.
PRIMARY RISK
The strategic shift may fail to convert users, while competition from AI-native tools and hyperscalers permanently impairs pricing power and demand from high-value professional customers.
- Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) growth decelerated to 8% YoY from the prior quarter.
- An analyst noted net new ARR was down 36% to 37% year-over-year in Q3.
- A new CEO will take over on December 1, 2026, adding transition risk.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Adobe Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) Growth | 11.2% year-over-year as of Q3 FY2026 - Decelerating | Total Adobe ARR growth has remained in a relatively stable double-digit range over the past year, but it decelerated sequentially in the latest quarter after accelerating in the prior period. This indicates a somewhat choppy but still solid growth trajectory. |
| Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) Growth | 8% year-over-year as of Q3 FY2026 - Decelerating | RPO growth, a measure of future revenue under contract, decelerated sharply in the latest quarter to 8% after holding stable at 13% for the two preceding quarters. An analyst on the latest earnings call noted concern about this metric. |
| Creative Freemium Monthly Active Users (MAU) | Surpassed 100 million (Q3 FY2026) | Measures the top-of-funnel user acquisition for creative products like Firefly and Express, indicating the success of the freemium strategy in attracting next-generation creators. |
| Business Professionals & Consumers Monthly Active Users (MAU) | Over 900 million (Q3 FY2026) | Indicates the massive scale and reach of Adobe's productivity and consumer-focused creative tools, primarily Acrobat and Express, forming a large base for monetization. |
| AI-first ending Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) | Exceeding $650 million (Q3 FY2026) | Tracks the direct monetization of new AI-centric products, reflecting the company's progress in capitalizing on the AI opportunity. |
User Growth vs. Contract Deceleration
BULL VIEW
Explosive MAU growth to over 1 billion users is a powerful leading indicator that creates a massive funnel for future monetization, justifying the temporary slowdown in contracted revenue.
CORE TENSION
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull case, as the strategic pivot is still new. Leading indicators of user adoption are strong, while lagging contract metrics reflect a deliberate, stated trade-off.
BEAR VIEW
The sharp deceleration in RPO growth to 8% is a hard data point showing the core business is weakening now, and the freemium user base may never convert profitably.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/27/2026 | Intensified AI Competition Watch: Announcements of generative AI tools for imaging, video, design, or marketing automation from key peers. |
December 1, 2026 | Chief Executive Officer Transition Watch: Anil Chakravarthy will become Adobe's President and CEO, with Shantanu Narayen transitioning to Executive Chair. |
12/9/2026 | Sustained ARR Deceleration Watch: Net new ARR versus MAU growth trends in the Q4 earnings report. Any failure to show a path to monetization. |
12/9/2026 | CEO Transition Disruption Watch: The new CEO's commentary on the Q4 earnings call. Any change in tone or direction regarding the freemium strategy or AI investments. |
12/9/2026 | Acquisition Integration Fumbles Watch: Management commentary on the Q4 earnings call regarding integration progress, costs, and expected contribution from Topaz Labs. |
12/9/2026 | Next Earnings Report Watch: Adobe is scheduled to report its Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings results. |
November in Miami Beach | Adobe MAX Creativity Conference Watch: Adobe will host its MAX creativity conference, where it is expected to showcase breakthrough innovations across Creative Cloud and Firefly. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-10 | Record Q3 Results and Guidance Raise Details: On September 10, 2026, Adobe reported record Q3 revenue, beating estimates. The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance for total revenue and non-GAAP EPS. | -1.0% $254.86 -> $252.23 |
2026-09-03 | CEO Succession Announced Details: On September 3, 2026, Adobe announced that Anil Chakravarthy will become President and CEO, effective December 1, 2026, with Shantanu Narayen transitioning to Executive Chair. | -4.7% $279.79 -> $266.51 |
2026-08-31 | Saudi Arabia AI Partnership Details: On August 31, 2026, Adobe announced an expanded partnership with Saudi Arabia's MCIT and HUMAIN to provide free access to its AI-powered creative tools. | -1.9% $291.52 -> $286.08 |
2026-06-25 | Topaz Labs Acquisition Announced Details: On June 25, 2026, the company announced it entered a definitive agreement to acquire Topaz Labs, an AI company specializing in video and image enhancement models. | +3.1% $196.57 -> $202.73 |
2026-06-11 | Strategic Pivot and Market Reaction Details: Following its June 11, 2026 earnings call, the stock fell -13.0%. Management announced a strategic shift to a freemium model, lowering second-half ARR growth expectations. | -12.6% $233.38 -> $204.02 |
2026-04-21 | Semrush Acquisition and Buyback Details: In April 2026, the company closed its acquisition of Semrush and its Board of Directors approved a new stock repurchase authorization of up to $25 billion. | +2.9% $248.63 -> $255.94 |
2026-03-12 | Q1 Earnings and Stock Decline Details: The company reported Q1 results on March 12, 2026. The stock had a two-day reaction of -9.0% amid concerns over a steeper-than-expected decline in its traditional stock business. | -8.9% $273.71 -> $249.32 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: ADBE trades at roughly 40% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 12% for the S&P 500 (3.3x the market), around the 49th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Hyperscale AI PlatformMicrosoft offers exposure to generative AI via a massive, entrenched enterprise distribution channel and far greater capital resources for model development, with R&D spend of $35.6 billion versus Adobe's $4.7 billion.
CRM - Salesforce
Enterprise Experience FocusSalesforce provides a more focused play on the enterprise customer experience and data platform market, where it is showing momentum with its strongest net new AOV growth in four years.
Adobe is an established software giant leveraging its massive user base and ecosystem to pivot towards an AI-driven, freemium-led growth model.
Adobe is transitioning its go-to-market strategy to aggressively acquire new users through free versions of its AI-powered tools like Firefly and Express. This top-of-funnel growth, measured by rapidly expanding Monthly Active Users (MAU), is intended to build a foundation for future monetization and long-term growth. The company is betting that its integrated, AI-infused platforms for creativity (Creative Cloud), productivity (Acrobat Studio), and marketing (Experience Platform) will convert this expanded user base into paying subscribers and drive consumption of its generative AI features.
Sustained high MAU growth coupled with an acceleration in AI-first ARR and total net new ARR, indicating successful conversion of free users to paid plans.
Stagnating MAU growth, declining generative credit consumption, or evidence that competitors' AI tools are capturing new users more effectively, leading to a failure to monetize the freemium user base.
Short-term stock price fluctuations based on quarterly earnings reactions that overlook the strategic shift towards long-term user acquisition over immediate ARR maximization.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's recognition that Adobe's freemium strategy is successfully converting its massive user base into durable, long-term revenue growth, validated by accelerating net new ARR in future quarters.
Adobe — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Application Software Resources |
| Capterra |
| Software Advice |
| InfoWorld |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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