Tearsheet

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $29.02 | Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $29.02
Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -45 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -11%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%
2   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 124%
5   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
6   Key risks
AAOI key risks include [1] significant financial instability driven by consecutive net losses and a material weakness in internal controls, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -45 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -11%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 124%
8 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
9 Key risks
AAOI key risks include [1] significant financial instability driven by consecutive net losses and a material weakness in internal controls, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AAOI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period from August 31, 2025, to today, December 18, 2025, is in the future. As such, it is not possible to provide factual reasons for a stock movement that has not yet occurred. However, based on recent analyst activity and company developments, several factors could influence Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) stock performance.

1. Analyst Price Target Increases: Several analysts have recently raised their price targets for AAOI. On December 11, 2025, Needham raised its price target to $43.00, marking a 13.16% increase, and Rosenblatt Securities increased its target from $35.00 to $50.00. Northland Capital Markets also raised its target to $35.00 on November 17, 2025. This indicates sustained confidence in the company's future prospects by these firms.

2. Strong Demand for Data Center Transceivers: Applied Optoelectronics has received a first volume order for 800G data center transceivers from a major hyperscale customer, along with nearly $22 million in 400G orders in 2025, with $13 million delivered in Q4 2025. This highlights tangible demand for the company's high-speed optical transceivers, particularly for AI-focused data centers.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AAOI Return-28%-40%-63%922%91%-21%144%
Peers Return59%38%-41%36%92%107%600%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAOI Win Rate33%33%42%67%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%65%38%57%72%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAOI Max Drawdown-54%-40%-71%-13%-64%-73% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-17%-50%-16%-9%-43% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LITE, COHR, CIEN, AVGO, MRVL. See AAOI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAAOIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-88.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven755.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven395 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-64.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven183.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven138 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-91.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1071.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to INTC, IPGP, KOPN, LPTH, FIEE


In The Past

Applied Optoelectronics's stock fell -88.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -88.3% loss requires a 755.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)

Better Bets than Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AAOI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Applied Optoelectronics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AAOILITECOHRCIENAVGOMRVLMedian
NameApplied .Lumentum Coherent Ciena Broadcom Marvell . 
Mkt Price27.10319.92170.74203.78326.1481.72187.26
Mkt Cap1.722.526.720.61,537.472.024.6
Rev LTM4221,8426,0434,77059,9267,7935,406
Op Inc LTM-45-10460831123,3661,147459
FCF LTM-302-887466524,9301,577370
FCF 3Y Avg-128-6119736820,3191,280283
CFO LTM-16914552780625,4381,891666
CFO 3Y Avg-7512359349620,8211,593545

Growth & Margins

AAOILITECOHRCIENAVGOMRVLMedian
NameApplied .Lumentum Coherent Ciena Broadcom Marvell . 
Rev Chg LTM101.2%33.6%20.8%18.8%28.0%45.0%30.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg32.8%3.4%16.5%10.4%24.0%12.3%14.4%
Rev Chg Q82.1%58.4%17.3%20.3%22.0%36.8%29.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM14.5%12.0%4.0%5.0%5.0%7.7%6.4%
Op Mgn LTM-10.6%-5.7%10.1%6.5%39.0%14.7%8.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-22.7%-14.5%5.1%6.7%38.4%-1.2%1.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.0%6.0%0.8%0.9%1.5%8.7%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-40.2%7.9%8.7%16.9%42.4%24.3%12.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-22.3%7.5%11.4%11.2%44.6%25.8%11.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-71.7%-4.8%1.2%13.9%41.6%20.2%7.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-36.9%-3.8%3.9%8.3%43.5%20.7%6.1%

Valuation

AAOILITECOHRCIENAVGOMRVLMedian
NameApplied .Lumentum Coherent Ciena Broadcom Marvell . 
Mkt Cap1.722.526.720.61,537.472.024.6
P/S3.96.22.84.321.79.25.3
P/EBIT-10.8-175.032.0-56.5-10.6
P/E-10.5101.667.4167.168.729.168.1
P/CFO-9.779.032.025.651.138.135.0
Total Yield-9.5%1.0%1.5%0.6%1.5%3.7%1.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-11.3%-1.0%3.1%-3.1%-1.0%
D/E0.10.30.2-0.0-0.2
Net D/E0.10.20.2-0.0-0.1

Returns

AAOILITECOHRCIENAVGOMRVLMedian
NameApplied .Lumentum Coherent Ciena Broadcom Marvell . 
1M Rtn25.3%32.2%22.8%6.3%-4.8%-2.1%14.5%
3M Rtn-8.0%95.9%65.1%49.4%-5.8%15.2%32.3%
6M Rtn37.1%261.7%107.5%176.0%30.3%9.2%72.3%
12M Rtn-15.6%259.8%65.3%131.2%37.1%-27.0%51.2%
3Y Rtn1,160.5%514.2%391.2%320.9%517.5%112.1%452.7%
1M Excs Rtn24.6%31.4%22.0%5.5%-5.6%-2.8%13.8%
3M Excs Rtn-8.0%85.2%56.7%46.3%-6.9%8.8%27.5%
6M Excs Rtn24.7%249.3%95.1%163.7%17.9%-3.2%59.9%
12M Excs Rtn-36.7%233.2%49.0%116.1%35.4%-43.2%42.2%
3Y Excs Rtn1,092.1%419.2%313.6%230.9%448.3%25.8%366.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Data Center1417797173144
Cable television (CATV)60118943837
Telecommunications (Telecom)142516218
Other33321
Fiber-to-the-home (FTTH)00100
Total218223212235191


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,389,524
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202511.8%
Average Daily Volume4,558,907
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.16
Basic Shares Quantity63,329,000
Short % of Basic Shares22.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-1.8%-28.1%4.4%
8/7/2025-3.3%-5.9%5.8%
5/8/2025-0.6%27.8%14.3%
2/26/2025-4.6%-28.2%-29.4%
11/7/202455.1%57.3%102.0%
8/6/2024-5.8%10.0%67.9%
5/9/2024-3.0%6.5%-3.5%
2/22/2024-30.5%-21.5%-27.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive4711
# Negative201713
Median Positive30.0%27.8%20.2%
Median Negative-6.9%-11.5%-20.7%
Max Positive67.1%119.1%111.5%
Max Negative-32.2%-30.3%-36.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Murry Stefan J.Chief Financial Officer8152025Sell22.3712,000268,4406,676,930Form
1Lin Chih-Hsiang (Thompson)President and CEO8152025Buy21.625,750124,31535,914,387Form
2Lin Che-Wei8152025Buy21.644,60999,7395,485,870Form
3Kuo David C*** See Remarks8152025Sell22.342,00044,6803,292,268Form
4Yeh William H8142025Buy22.7510,000227,5005,592,382Form