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Oracle (ORCL)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $218.08 | Market Cap: $616.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Oracle (ORCL)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $218.08
Market Cap: $616.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more.
 
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more.
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ORCL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Oracle (ORCL) experienced a stock price decline of approximately 5.1% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025. This movement was influenced by several key factors:

1. Debt and Aggressive Capital Expenditure: Oracle's substantial debt load and aggressive capital expenditure plans to build AI data centers, including discussions for a reported $38 billion loan, have raised concerns about the company's financial stability.

2. OpenAI Deal Risks and Client Concentration: The massive $300 billion cloud computing deal with OpenAI, while initially promising, has led to concerns regarding client concentration and questions about OpenAI's financial viability due to projected operating losses.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ORCL Return24%37%-5%31%60%30%341%
Peers Return44%31%-26%64%7%-1%143%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ORCL Win Rate67%58%33%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate63%63%37%63%52%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ORCL Max Drawdown-25%-6%-29%0%-3%-26% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-10%-37%-4%-13%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IBM, CRM, INTU, ADBE, SNPS. See ORCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventORCLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven237 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven112 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven266 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-41.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven284 days1480 days

Compare to IBM, CRM, INTU, ADBE, SNPS


In The Past

Oracle's stock fell -41.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -41.1% loss requires a 69.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Oracle (ORCL)

Better Bets than Oracle (ORCL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ORCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
ORCL_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025ORCLOracleQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-8.0%-8.0%-12.7%
ORCL_8312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312022ORCLOracleMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
17.5%65.1%-17.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
ORCL_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025ORCLOracleQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-8.0%-8.0%-12.7%
ORCL_8312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312022ORCLOracleMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
17.5%65.1%-17.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Oracle

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ORCLIBMCRMINTUADBESNPSMedian
NameOracle Internat.Salesfor.Intuit Adobe Synopsys  
Mkt Price214.33307.99247.46663.08328.73463.74318.36
Mkt Cap605.7287.6236.6185.7139.174.3211.1
Rev LTM59,01865,40239,50218,83123,1816,43531,342
Op Inc LTM18,66711,5448,3814,9428,4021,1048,392
FCF LTM-5,88011,85412,4976,0839,5991,3027,841
FCF 3Y Avg4,94911,75310,5065,1687,9251,3006,546
CFO LTM21,53413,48313,1696,2079,7921,44211,480
CFO 3Y Avg19,46813,49811,2145,3798,1851,4619,700

Growth & Margins

ORCLIBMCRMINTUADBESNPSMedian
NameOracle Internat.Salesfor.Intuit Adobe Synopsys  
Rev Chg LTM9.7%4.5%8.3%15.6%10.7%8.0%9.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.2%2.6%10.5%14.0%10.5%9.7%10.3%
Rev Chg Q12.2%9.1%9.8%20.3%10.7%14.0%11.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%2.1%2.4%3.6%2.6%3.4%2.7%
Op Mgn LTM31.6%17.7%21.2%26.2%36.2%17.2%23.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg30.3%16.4%17.8%23.9%35.4%21.6%22.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.6%0.7%0.5%-0.1%-3.7%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM36.5%20.6%33.3%33.0%42.2%22.4%33.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.6%21.4%30.6%32.7%39.0%26.3%31.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-10.0%18.1%31.6%32.3%41.4%20.2%25.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.8%18.6%28.6%31.4%37.7%23.4%26.0%

Valuation

ORCLIBMCRMINTUADBESNPSMedian
NameOracle Internat.Salesfor.Intuit Adobe Synopsys  
Mkt Cap605.7287.6236.6185.7139.174.3211.1
P/S10.54.06.611.77.112.88.8
P/EBIT34.223.231.143.418.856.032.6
P/E49.733.339.157.023.541.140.1
P/CFO28.719.519.835.516.757.024.2
Total Yield2.8%5.4%3.0%2.3%4.3%2.4%2.9%
Dividend Yield0.8%2.4%0.4%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.6%6.4%4.4%3.0%4.0%1.7%3.5%
D/E0.20.30.00.00.00.20.1
Net D/E0.20.2-0.00.00.00.20.1

Returns

ORCLIBMCRMINTUADBESNPSMedian
NameOracle Internat.Salesfor.Intuit Adobe Synopsys  
1M Rtn-13.6%2.4%-2.7%0.4%-2.0%11.4%-0.8%
3M Rtn-3.7%25.3%1.6%-0.6%-4.5%-23.0%-2.2%
6M Rtn25.7%16.8%-7.1%-13.2%-20.8%-3.8%-5.4%
12M Rtn15.0%35.3%-32.3%2.0%-38.7%-21.1%-9.6%
3Y Rtn180.0%133.1%86.7%71.2%-1.6%40.0%78.9%
1M Excs Rtn-14.9%1.1%-4.0%-0.9%-3.2%10.1%-2.0%
3M Excs Rtn-13.6%18.8%-6.9%-7.1%-11.6%-28.3%-9.3%
6M Excs Rtn10.3%1.4%-22.5%-28.7%-36.3%-19.3%-20.9%
12M Excs Rtn5.9%25.6%-38.2%-8.1%-49.7%-31.5%-19.8%
3Y Excs Rtn101.9%61.3%-8.4%4.9%-72.7%-30.0%-1.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cloud and license44,46441,08636,05234,10132,523
Services5,4315,5943,2053,0213,106
Hardware3,0663,2743,1833,3593,443
Cloud and license revenues   -2-4
Total52,96149,95442,44040,47939,068


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cloud and license28,51426,126   
Hardware1,9151,932   
Services9161,104   
Acquisition related and other-314-190   
Restructuring-404-490   
Expense allocations and other, net-419-404   
Stock-based compensation for operating segments-1,382-1,201   
General and administrative-1,548-1,579   
Amortization of intangible assets-3,010-3,582   
Research and development-8,915-8,623   
Total15,35313,093   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24,372,181
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202518.5%
Average Daily Volume21,476,392
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.13
Basic Shares Quantity2,826,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025910202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025618202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025311202510-Q 2/28/2025
113020241210202410-Q 11/30/2024
8312024910202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024620202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024312202410-Q 2/29/2024
113020231212202310-Q 11/30/2023
8312023912202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023620202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023310202310-Q 2/28/2023
113020221213202210-Q 11/30/2022
8312022913202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022621202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022311202210-Q 2/28/2022
113020211210202110-Q 11/30/2021