Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $196.42 | Market Cap: $562.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $196.42Market Cap: $562.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 93% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. | Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 93% |
| Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ORCL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company Oracle (ORCL) experienced a notable stock decline of approximately 15% in the period leading up to December 22, 2025, primarily driven by events and concerns emerging in late 2025, particularly around its second-quarter fiscal year 2026 (Q2 FY2026) earnings report. While the stock had seen significant gains earlier in the year, several key factors contributed to this pullback.
1. Q2 FY2026 Earnings Miss and Market Reaction: Oracle's Q2 FY2026 earnings, announced on December 10, 2025, revealed that while non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) significantly surpassed expectations, the company's total revenue slightly missed analyst forecasts. This slight revenue shortfall, despite strong EPS, triggered a substantial stock sell-off, with shares plummeting over 6% after-hours and experiencing a 14% to 15% decline in early trading, marking one of its most significant post-earnings drops.
2. Heightened Debt and Capital Expenditure Concerns for AI Infrastructure: Investors became increasingly worried about Oracle's aggressive capital expenditures (CapEx) required to build out its vast AI data center infrastructure. The company raised $18 billion in new debt in September 2025, and by late November, its total obligations exceeded $124 billion, with lease commitments reaching $248 billion. The Q2 FY2026 earnings report also indicated an estimated additional $15 billion in CapEx for FY2026, leading to negative free cash flow and increasing scrutiny over Oracle's financial leverage and liquidity.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORCL Return | 24% | 37% | -5% | 31% | 60% | 9% | 271% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 30% | -31% | 64% | 32% | 19% | 218% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORCL Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 65% | 32% | 67% | 68% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORCL Max Drawdown | -25% | -6% | -29% | 0% | -3% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -6% | -37% | -5% | -7% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, CRM, GOOGL, IBM. See ORCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to IBM, CRM, INTU, ADBE, SNPS
In The Past
Oracle's stock fell -41.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -41.1% loss requires a 69.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Oracle Earnings Notes | |||
| Can PTC Outrun Oracle in the Next Rally? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Where Does Oracle Stock Rank Among Competitors? | |||
| Why INTU, PTC May Be Better Than Oracle Stock | Actionable | ||
| 7-Day Rally Sends Oracle Stock Up 11% | Notification | ||
| Oracle Stock Soars 6.6% In A Single Day, Wait For A Dip To Buy The Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| What Could Rocket Oracle Stock to New Heights | |||
| Is 27.2% Fall In Oracle (ORCL) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| What Can Trigger Oracle Stock's Slide? | |||
| How Oracle Stock Gained 40% | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| PTC vs Oracle: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | December 20th, 2025 | ||
| Oracle Stock At $180: Value Trap Or 2x Opportunity? | December 18th, 2025 | ||
| Better Value & Growth: CRM, ORCL Lead Synopsys Stock | December 13th, 2025 | ||
| Where Does Oracle Stock Rank Among Competitors? | December 12th, 2025 | ||
| Stronger Bet Than Oracle Stock: INTU Delivers More | December 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ORCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 08312025 | ORCL | Oracle | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -15.0% | -15.0% | -20.9% |
| 08312022 | ORCL | Oracle | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 17.5% | 65.1% | -17.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 08312025 | ORCL | Oracle | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -15.0% | -15.0% | -20.9% |
| 08312022 | ORCL | Oracle | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 17.5% | 65.1% | -17.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Oracle
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 280.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,484.1 |
| Rev LTM | 179,607 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47,840 |
| FCF LTM | 13,188 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16,715 |
| CFO LTM | 71,716 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 58,425 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,484.1 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| P/EBIT | 26.8 |
| P/E | 34.3 |
| P/CFO | 22.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 142.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 62.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud and software | 44,464 | 41,086 | 36,052 | 34,101 | 32,523 |
| Services | 5,431 | 5,594 | 3,205 | 3,021 | 3,106 |
| Hardware | 3,066 | 3,274 | 3,183 | 3,359 | 3,443 |
| Cloud and license revenues | 0 | -2 | -4 | ||
| Total | 52,961 | 49,954 | 42,440 | 40,479 | 39,068 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud and software | 28,514 | ||||
| Hardware | 1,915 | ||||
| Services | 916 | ||||
| Acquisition related and other | -314 | ||||
| Restructuring | -404 | ||||
| Expense allocations and other, net | -419 | ||||
| Stock-based compensation for operating segments | -1,382 | ||||
| General and administrative | -1,548 | ||||
| Amortization of intangible assets | -3,010 | ||||
| Research and development | -8,915 | ||||
| Total | 15,353 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/10/2025 | -10.8% | -20.0% | |
| 9/9/2025 | 35.9% | 27.0% | 19.5% |
| 6/11/2025 | 13.3% | 19.6% | 33.5% |
| 3/10/2025 | -3.1% | 3.5% | -16.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.7% | -10.1% | -18.7% |
| 9/9/2024 | 11.4% | 21.8% | 24.6% |
| 6/11/2024 | 13.3% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| 3/11/2024 | 11.7% | 12.0% | 7.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 18 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -8.5% | -16.3% |
| Max Positive | 35.9% | 27.0% | 33.7% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -20.0% | -18.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | 12112025 | 10-Q 11/30/2025 |
| 8312025 | 9102025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6182025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3112025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9102024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6202024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3122024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12122023 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9122023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6202023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3102023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12132022 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9132022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6212022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3112022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
