Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $218.08 | Market Cap: $616.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $218.08Market Cap: $616.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ORCL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Oracle (ORCL) experienced a stock price decline of approximately 5.1% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025. This movement was influenced by several key factors:
1. Debt and Aggressive Capital Expenditure: Oracle's substantial debt load and aggressive capital expenditure plans to build AI data centers, including discussions for a reported $38 billion loan, have raised concerns about the company's financial stability.
2. OpenAI Deal Risks and Client Concentration: The massive $300 billion cloud computing deal with OpenAI, while initially promising, has led to concerns regarding client concentration and questions about OpenAI's financial viability due to projected operating losses.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORCL Return | 24% | 37% | -5% | 31% | 60% | 30% | 341% |
| Peers Return | 44% | 31% | -26% | 64% | 7% | -1% | 143% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORCL Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 63% | 37% | 63% | 52% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORCL Max Drawdown | -25% | -6% | -29% | 0% | -3% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -10% | -37% | -4% | -13% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IBM, CRM, INTU, ADBE, SNPS. See ORCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 1480 days |
Compare to IBM, CRM, INTU, ADBE, SNPS
In The Past
Oracle's stock fell -41.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -41.1% loss requires a 69.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| What Could Rocket Oracle Stock to New Heights | |||
| Adobe vs Oracle: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Is 27.2% Fall In Oracle (ORCL) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| Can Oracle Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| What Can Trigger Oracle Stock's Slide? | |||
| Oracle Stock vs Competition: Who Wins? | |||
| Wait For A Dip To Buy Oracle Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| How Oracle Stock Gained 40% | |||
| Oracle vs Adobe: Which Stock Could Rally? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Ten-Year Tally: ORCL Delivers $161 Bil Gain | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What Could Rocket Oracle Stock to New Heights | December 4th, 2025 | ||
| Adobe vs Oracle: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Is Adobe a Better Buy Than Oracle? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| ORCL, CRM Top Synopsys Stock on Price & Potential | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Oracle Stock To $144? | November 27th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ORCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 08312025 | ORCL | Oracle | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -8.0% | -8.0% | -12.7% |
| 08312022 | ORCL | Oracle | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 17.5% | 65.1% | -17.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 08312025 | ORCL | Oracle | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -8.0% | -8.0% | -12.7% |
| 08312022 | ORCL | Oracle | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 17.5% | 65.1% | -17.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Oracle
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 318.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 211.1 |
| Rev LTM | 31,342 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,392 |
| FCF LTM | 7,841 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,546 |
| CFO LTM | 11,480 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,700 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 211.1 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/EBIT | 32.6 |
| P/E | 40.1 |
| P/CFO | 24.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 78.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud and license | 44,464 | 41,086 | 36,052 | 34,101 | 32,523 |
| Services | 5,431 | 5,594 | 3,205 | 3,021 | 3,106 |
| Hardware | 3,066 | 3,274 | 3,183 | 3,359 | 3,443 |
| Cloud and license revenues | -2 | -4 | |||
| Total | 52,961 | 49,954 | 42,440 | 40,479 | 39,068 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud and license | 28,514 | 26,126 | |||
| Hardware | 1,915 | 1,932 | |||
| Services | 916 | 1,104 | |||
| Acquisition related and other | -314 | -190 | |||
| Restructuring | -404 | -490 | |||
| Expense allocations and other, net | -419 | -404 | |||
| Stock-based compensation for operating segments | -1,382 | -1,201 | |||
| General and administrative | -1,548 | -1,579 | |||
| Amortization of intangible assets | -3,010 | -3,582 | |||
| Research and development | -8,915 | -8,623 | |||
| Total | 15,353 | 13,093 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9102025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6182025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3112025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9102024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6202024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3122024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12122023 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9122023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6202023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3102023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12132022 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9132022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6212022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3112022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12102021 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
