Autodesk (ADSK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $305.54 | Market Cap: $65.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Autodesk (ADSK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $305.54Market Cap: $65.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Cloud Computing, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Artificial Intelligence. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Cloud Computing, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Artificial Intelligence. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADSK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
From August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Autodesk (ADSK) experienced a net decline of approximately 2.4%. While the company reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2026 results in late November, several factors during this period may have contributed to a correctional or negative stock movement.
1. Significant Insider Selling Exceeding Threshold.
On September 5, 2025, EVP Steven M. Blum executed a sale of 22,420 shares of Autodesk stock, totaling approximately $7,258,475.00. This substantial insider transaction, exceeding the $5 million threshold, could signal a lack of confidence from a key executive and potentially weigh on investor sentiment.
2. Period of Decline Prior to Q3 Earnings.
Leading up to November 20, 2025, Autodesk shares witnessed a 5.5% decline over the preceding month, underperforming the S&P 500 composite. This earlier period of negative momentum could have contributed to an overall net decrease for the broader timeframe, even with subsequent positive earnings reactions.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADSK Return | 66% | -8% | -34% | 30% | 21% | 5% | 69% |
| Peers Return | 0% | 198% | -22% | 55% | 42% | 829% | 4659% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADSK Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 67% | 83% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 18% | 11% | 33% | 28% | 18% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADSK Max Drawdown | -26% | -18% | -42% | -3% | -18% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | 0% | -3% | -25% | -20% | -14% | -52% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSY, BMR, BTTC, CCC, FUSE. See ADSK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADSK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 333.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1767 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BSY, BMR, BTTC, CCC, FUSE
In The Past
Autodesk's stock fell -52.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/25/2021. A -52.0% loss requires a 108.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADSK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | ADSK | Autodesk | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | 8.2% | -9.9% |
| 05312022 | ADSK | Autodesk | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.1% | -4.0% | -20.9% |
| 11302021 | ADSK | Autodesk | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -18.3% | -20.6% | -35.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | ADSK | Autodesk | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | 8.2% | -9.9% |
| 05312022 | ADSK | Autodesk | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.1% | -4.0% | -20.9% |
| 11302021 | ADSK | Autodesk | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -18.3% | -20.6% | -35.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Autodesk
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9022025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3062025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12032024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9032024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6102024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 6102024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12042023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8292023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3142023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8312022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3142022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Blum Steven M | EVP, Chief Operating Officer | 9092025 | Sell | 322.51 | 5,270 | 1,699,628 | 9,755,605 | Form |
| 1 | Keene Ruth Ann | EVP, Corp Affairs, CLO | 9042025 | Sell | 315.10 | 2,761 | 869,991 | 25,288,350 | Form |
| 2 | Howard Ayanna | 8292025 | Sell | 325.00 | 3,159 | 1,026,675 | 1,427,725 | Form | |
| 3 | Pearce Rebecca | EVP, Chief People Officer | 8292025 | Sell | 320.00 | 2,377 | 760,640 | 5,460,160 | Form |
| 4 | Pearce Rebecca | EVP, Chief People Officer | 7032025 | Sell | 315.00 | 3,251 | 1,024,065 | 6,123,600 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |