Applied Digital (APLD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.96 | Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Applied Digital (APLD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.96Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, High-Performance Computing (HPC) Hosting, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -46 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 40x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 107%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 127% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -82%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -676% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 429% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.3% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 31% | |
| Key risksAPLD key risks include [1] significant financial strain from a highly leveraged and capital-intensive business model and [2] a heavy dependence on a single key customer which introduces concentration and project execution risk. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, High-Performance Computing (HPC) Hosting, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -46 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 40x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 107%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 127% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -82%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -676% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 429% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.3% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 31% |
| Key risksAPLD key risks include [1] significant financial strain from a highly leveraged and capital-intensive business model and [2] a heavy dependence on a single key customer which introduces concentration and project execution risk. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
APLD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Applied Digital (APLD) experienced significant stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, influenced by a combination of strategic business developments in the AI infrastructure sector, investor sentiment, and financial performance.
1. Major CoreWeave Lease Agreements and Expansion Plans: A significant driver was the announcement and expansion of leasing agreements with CoreWeave, an AI cloud services leader. In June 2025, APLD secured a 15-year contract with CoreWeave projected to generate approximately $7 billion in revenue. This was further expanded in August 2025 by an additional agreement, increasing the total contracted revenue with CoreWeave to $11 billion over 15 years, significantly boosting investor confidence in future revenue streams. This helped position Applied Digital as a core player in the AI infrastructure sector.
2. Strategic Investment and Partnerships: Applied Digital's stock surge in 2025 was also backed by significant endorsements, including a strategic investment from Nvidia. Public filings from late 2024 revealed Nvidia's substantial holding in APLD, and the CEO stated Applied Digital had become Nvidia's preferred cloud partner. This relationship and the substantial capital infusion, including a $160 million financing round, addressed the company's need for capital to build large-scale data centers.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APLD Return | 389% | 11803% | -56% | 266% | 13% | 217% | 336567% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 22% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APLD Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APLD Max Drawdown | -1% | -22% | -79% | -3% | -65% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MARA, RIOT, CLSK, CORZ, HUT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 475.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 307 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 208.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -89.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 880.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 412 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1100.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GIB, XRX, BAO, GBH, JAJI
In The Past
Applied Digital's stock fell -82.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/26/2021. A -82.6% loss requires a 475.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to APLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Applied Digital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| Rev LTM | 653 |
| Op Inc LTM | -133 |
| FCF LTM | -1,011 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -587 |
| CFO LTM | -291 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -144 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 71.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 85.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 102.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -39.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -32.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -71.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -138.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -161.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| P/EBIT | 6.7 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | -9.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -22.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 374.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 236.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 9 | 0 | ||
| Total | 9 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud Services Business (Discontinued operations) | 374 | 3 | ||
| High-Performance Compute (HPC) Hosting Business | 221 | 11 | ||
| Data Center Hosting Business | 145 | 224 | ||
| Other | 23 | 25 | ||
| Single Segment | 15 | |||
| Total | 763 | 264 | 15 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/9/2025 | 16.0% | 25.1% | 5.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | 31.0% | 47.5% | 65.5% |
| 4/14/2025 | -35.9% | -25.0% | 11.4% |
| 1/14/2025 | -2.0% | 12.9% | -7.4% |
| 8/28/2024 | -13.4% | 21.8% | 85.7% |
| 4/11/2024 | -11.7% | -22.1% | 7.8% |
| 1/16/2024 | -26.2% | -35.0% | -40.6% |
| 10/10/2023 | 12.6% | 14.1% | 7.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 13.7% | 21.8% | 34.5% |
| Median Negative | -13.4% | -25.0% | -25.7% |
| Max Positive | 31.0% | 71.7% | 85.7% |
| Max Negative | -35.9% | -35.0% | -40.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10092025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7302025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4142025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1142025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10092024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 8302024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4112024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1162024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10102023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 8022023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4062023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1102023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10122022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 8292022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 8312021 | 1062022 | S-1/A 8/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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