ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.08 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.08Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ACIW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why ACI Worldwide (ACIW) stock moved by approximately -4.6% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Multiple Analyst Downgrades in August 2025**
Several analyst firms lowered their ratings for ACI Worldwide in August 2025. Wall Street Zen downgraded ACIW from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" on August 9, 2025, and Zacks Research followed suit on August 21, 2025, cutting its rating from "strong-buy" to "hold". Weiss Ratings also reduced its stance from a "buy (b-)" to a "hold (c+)". These downgrades likely contributed to negative investor sentiment at the beginning of the specified period.
**2. Muted Market Reaction to Strong Q3 2025 Earnings**
On November 6, 2025, ACI Worldwide reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates for both earnings per share and revenue, and raising its full-year 2025 guidance. However, the market's immediate reaction was "muted" or "tepid," with shares experiencing a slight decline of approximately 1.24% in pre-market trading, suggesting that the positive news may have been largely anticipated or led to a "sell-the-news" event.
**3. Initiation of a Downtrend Post-Q3 Earnings Release**
Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement on November 6, 2025, ACIW stock entered a downtrend. Technical analysis indicated a total price decline of over 8% during this trend as of December 2, 2025, contributing significantly to the overall negative movement in the stock price during the requested period.
**4. Persistent Concerns Regarding Revenue Volatility in the Payment Software Segment**
Despite the company's strong Q3 results and the launch of new platforms like ACI Connetic, investor narratives from early November 2025 highlighted ongoing concerns about revenue unpredictability in the Payment Software segment. This perceived revenue volatility remained a key risk that shaped broader expectations for ACI Worldwide's future performance, potentially offsetting positive news.
**5. Widening Gap in Payments Modernization Readiness**
A global research study released by ACI Worldwide and Globant on December 2, 2025, indicated a widening gap between the confidence of payments leaders and their actual readiness for modernization. The study identified challenges such as reliance on legacy infrastructure, fraud/cybersecurity concerns, and regulatory complexity as significant barriers to innovation. Although ACI Worldwide offers solutions in these areas, the report could suggest broader industry hurdles that might impact the pace of adoption or the overall growth environment for payment technology providers.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ACIW Return | 1% | -10% | -34% | 33% | 70% | -10% | 23% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 2% | -10% | 16% | 60% | 845% | 2110% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ACIW Win Rate | 50% | 17% | 25% | 58% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 27% | 21% | 46% | 42% | 26% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ACIW Max Drawdown | -44% | -26% | -42% | -14% | -5% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -9% | -17% | -15% | -11% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APPF, WK, BMR, BTTC, CCC. See ACIW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ACIW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 276 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 265 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 322.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1214 days | 1480 days |
Compare to APPF, WK, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
ACI Worldwide's stock fell -54.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -54.2% loss requires a 118.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ACIW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312024 | ACIW | ACI Worldwide | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -11.5% | -10.4% | -21.5% |
| 08312022 | ACIW | ACI Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 2.4% | -15.6% |
| 11302021 | ACIW | ACI Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.6% | -28.3% | -31.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312024 | ACIW | ACI Worldwide | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -11.5% | -10.4% | -21.5% |
| 08312022 | ACIW | ACI Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 2.4% | -15.6% |
| 11302021 | ACIW | ACI Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.6% | -28.3% | -31.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ACI Worldwide
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| Rev LTM | 906 |
| Op Inc LTM | 65 |
| FCF LTM | 232 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 175 |
| CFO LTM | 262 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 200 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| P/S | 5.7 |
| P/EBIT | 14.4 |
| P/E | 20.9 |
| P/CFO | 36.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 97.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 35.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billers | 686 | 629 | 592 | 586 | |
| Banks | 616 | 639 | 625 | 558 | |
| Merchants | 151 | 154 | 153 | 149 | |
| ACI Worldwide, Inc. ("ACI") On Demand | 679 | ||||
| ACI Worldwide, Inc. ("ACI") On Premise | 579 | ||||
| Total | 1,453 | 1,422 | 1,371 | 1,294 | 1,258 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | 355 | 371 | 373 | 331 | |
| Billers | 142 | 107 | 129 | 135 | |
| Merchants | 44 | 49 | 54 | 53 | |
| Stock-based compensation expense | -25 | -30 | -27 | -30 | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -122 | -127 | -133 | -140 | |
| Corporate and unallocated expenses | -175 | -167 | -186 | -205 | |
| ACI Worldwide, Inc. ("ACI") On Demand | 24 | ||||
| ACI Worldwide, Inc. ("ACI") On Premise | 302 | ||||
| Corporate | -202 | ||||
| Total | 220 | 204 | 210 | 145 | 124 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |