Tearsheet

International Business Machines (IBM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $302.45 | Market Cap: $282.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

International Business Machines (IBM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $302.45
Market Cap: $282.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

IBM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, saw significant movements in International Business Machines (IBM) stock, which gained approximately 25% over the last three months, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Several key factors contributed to this performance.

1. Strong Performance in AI and Hybrid Cloud: IBM's focus on enterprise AI, particularly through its watsonx platform, and its hybrid cloud solutions, including the Red Hat acquisition, continued to drive revenue growth and investor confidence. The company's software segment has been a key growth driver, with its AI book of business exceeding $9.5 billion.

2. Advancements in Quantum Computing: IBM made notable progress in quantum computing, unveiling its most advanced quantum processor, IBM Quantum Nighthawk, which is expected to be delivered to users by the end of 2025. The company is aiming for quantum advantage by 2026 and fault-tolerant computing by 2029, which has positively influenced investor expectations for its long-term growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
IBM Return-1%16%11%22%39%41%204%
Peers Return39%35%-31%56%1%22%147%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IBM Win Rate58%58%50%67%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate69%60%31%60%52%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IBM Max Drawdown-29%-6%-9%-12%-3%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-6%-41%-8%-26%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, INTC, GLOB, BAO. See IBM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventIBMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven356 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven974 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1858 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-44.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven398 days1480 days

Compare to MSFT, ORCL, INTC, GLOB, BAO


In The Past

International Business Machines's stock fell -20.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -20.2% loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.

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About International Business Machines (IBM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to IBM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
IBM_10312018_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312018IBMInternational Business MachinesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
24.8%21.5%-5.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
IBM_10312018_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312018IBMInternational Business MachinesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
24.8%21.5%-5.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for International Business Machines

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IBMMSFTORCLINTCGLOBBAOMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftOracle Intel Globant BAO  
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Growth & Margins

IBMMSFTORCLINTCGLOBBAOMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftOracle Intel Globant BAO  
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Valuation

IBMMSFTORCLINTCGLOBBAOMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftOracle Intel Globant BAO  
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Returns

IBMMSFTORCLINTCGLOBBAOMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftOracle Intel Globant BAO  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Software25,01125,03723,42622,92722,891
Consulting20,88419,10717,84416,25716,798
Infrastructure14,59315,28814,18814,5337,604
Financing7416457749751,400
Other-divested businesses397318785101930
Other revenue235135335387162
Global Technology Services    27,361
Total61,86160,53057,35255,18077,146


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Software59,81157,18658,42058,55858,342
Consulting15,08913,48111,91410,54810,136
Financing14,40915,75716,88024,97429,568
Cash and marketable securities12,9078,1386,22212,4637,308
Infrastructure11,99112,24311,76612,3784,590
Pension assets7,5068,2369,8487,5576,865
Deferred tax assets6,4686,0787,1588,1754,995
Other3,5633,7404,5303,5143,077
Operating right-of-use assets2,0851,5861,9452,3683,530
Plant, other property and equipment1,8381,7602,1962,4492,262
Other-divested businesses6011001,1092541,906
Elimination of internal transactions-1,028-1,062-1,608-4,686-4,317
Notes and accounts receivable  1,6221,6551,488
Total assets of discontinued operations   15,764 
Global Technology Services    22,436
Total135,240127,243132,002155,971152,186


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,607,288
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.1%
Average Daily Volume4,947,734
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.76
Basic Shares Quantity933,861,791
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023725202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021