International Business Machines (IBM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $302.45 | Market Cap: $282.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
International Business Machines (IBM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $302.45Market Cap: $282.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
IBM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, saw significant movements in International Business Machines (IBM) stock, which gained approximately 25% over the last three months, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Several key factors contributed to this performance.
1. Strong Performance in AI and Hybrid Cloud: IBM's focus on enterprise AI, particularly through its watsonx platform, and its hybrid cloud solutions, including the Red Hat acquisition, continued to drive revenue growth and investor confidence. The company's software segment has been a key growth driver, with its AI book of business exceeding $9.5 billion.
2. Advancements in Quantum Computing: IBM made notable progress in quantum computing, unveiling its most advanced quantum processor, IBM Quantum Nighthawk, which is expected to be delivered to users by the end of 2025. The company is aiming for quantum advantage by 2026 and fault-tolerant computing by 2029, which has positively influenced investor expectations for its long-term growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IBM Return | -1% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 39% | 41% | 204% |
| Peers Return | 39% | 35% | -31% | 56% | 1% | 22% | 147% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IBM Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 69% | 60% | 31% | 60% | 52% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IBM Max Drawdown | -29% | -6% | -9% | -12% | -3% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -6% | -41% | -8% | -26% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, INTC, GLOB, BAO. See IBM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IBM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 974 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1858 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MSFT, ORCL, INTC, GLOB, BAO
In The Past
International Business Machines's stock fell -20.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -20.2% loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to IBM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312018 | IBM | International Business Machines | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 24.8% | 21.5% | -5.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312018 | IBM | International Business Machines | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 24.8% | 21.5% | -5.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for International Business Machines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| Rev LTM | - |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | - |
| FCF 3Y Avg | - |
| CFO LTM | - |
| CFO 3Y Avg | - |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Rev Chg Q | - |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
| FCF/Rev LTM | - |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| P/S | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | - |
| P/CFO | - |
| Total Yield | - |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | - |
| Net D/E | - |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | - |
| 6M Excs Rtn | - |
| 12M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | - |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software | 25,011 | 25,037 | 23,426 | 22,927 | 22,891 |
| Consulting | 20,884 | 19,107 | 17,844 | 16,257 | 16,798 |
| Infrastructure | 14,593 | 15,288 | 14,188 | 14,533 | 7,604 |
| Financing | 741 | 645 | 774 | 975 | 1,400 |
| Other-divested businesses | 397 | 318 | 785 | 101 | 930 |
| Other revenue | 235 | 135 | 335 | 387 | 162 |
| Global Technology Services | 27,361 | ||||
| Total | 61,861 | 60,530 | 57,352 | 55,180 | 77,146 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software | 59,811 | 57,186 | 58,420 | 58,558 | 58,342 |
| Consulting | 15,089 | 13,481 | 11,914 | 10,548 | 10,136 |
| Financing | 14,409 | 15,757 | 16,880 | 24,974 | 29,568 |
| Cash and marketable securities | 12,907 | 8,138 | 6,222 | 12,463 | 7,308 |
| Infrastructure | 11,991 | 12,243 | 11,766 | 12,378 | 4,590 |
| Pension assets | 7,506 | 8,236 | 9,848 | 7,557 | 6,865 |
| Deferred tax assets | 6,468 | 6,078 | 7,158 | 8,175 | 4,995 |
| Other | 3,563 | 3,740 | 4,530 | 3,514 | 3,077 |
| Operating right-of-use assets | 2,085 | 1,586 | 1,945 | 2,368 | 3,530 |
| Plant, other property and equipment | 1,838 | 1,760 | 2,196 | 2,449 | 2,262 |
| Other-divested businesses | 601 | 100 | 1,109 | 254 | 1,906 |
| Elimination of internal transactions | -1,028 | -1,062 | -1,608 | -4,686 | -4,317 |
| Notes and accounts receivable | 1,622 | 1,655 | 1,488 | ||
| Total assets of discontinued operations | 15,764 | ||||
| Global Technology Services | 22,436 | ||||
| Total | 135,240 | 127,243 | 132,002 | 155,971 | 152,186 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
