Zeta Global (ZETA)
Market Price (3/1/2026): $16.9 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Zeta Global (ZETA)
Market Price (3/1/2026): $16.9Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Artificial Intelligence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Key risksZETA key risks include [1] an ongoing class action lawsuit alleging financial manipulation through "round trip transactions" and [2] claims of using "predatory consent farms" for user data collection. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Artificial Intelligence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% |
| Key risksZETA key risks include [1] an ongoing class action lawsuit alleging financial manipulation through "round trip transactions" and [2] claims of using "predatory consent farms" for user data collection. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant institutional selling by a major shareholder. Battery Management Corp. sold its entire stake in Zeta Global, valued at approximately $9.05 million, as of December 31, 2025. This substantial divestment by an institutional investor likely exerted downward pressure on the stock price during the specified period.
2. Profit-taking following a substantial rally. The stock experienced a peak of $24.40 on January 9, 2026, significantly higher than its price of approximately $17.32 in late November 2025. This rapid appreciation likely led to subsequent profit-taking by investors, contributing to a price correction leading up to the late February earnings report.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.1% change in ZETA stock from 11/30/2025 to 2/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 2282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.25 | 16.95 | -7.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,225 | 1,225 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 3.1 | -7.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 222 | 222 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 2/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZETA | -7.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | 61.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | -3.0% | 57.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.7% change in ZETA stock from 8/31/2025 to 2/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 2282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.64 | 16.95 | -13.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,156 | 1,225 | 6.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.7 | 3.1 | -16.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 217 | 222 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 2/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZETA | -13.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | 57.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.9% | 50.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.5% change in ZETA stock from 2/28/2025 to 2/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 2282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.21 | 16.95 | -1.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,006 | 1,225 | 21.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.5 | 3.1 | -13.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 207 | 222 | -7.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 2/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZETA | -1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 54.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.6% | 54.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.8% change in ZETA stock from 2/28/2023 to 2/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 107.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 2282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.61 | 16.95 | 59.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 591 | 1,225 | 107.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.6 | 3.1 | 17.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 222 | -34.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 2/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 59.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.6% | 42.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 107.4% | 39.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ZETA Return | -5% | -3% | 8% | 104% | 13% | -11% | 103% |
| Peers Return | 23% | -67% | 96% | 140% | 35% | -34% | 70% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ZETA Win Rate | 57% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 67% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 27% | 65% | 62% | 47% | 10% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ZETA Max Drawdown | -39% | -49% | -11% | -10% | -39% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -72% | -20% | -33% | -39% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HUBS, BRZE, TTD, APP, APPS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ZETA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 211.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 676 days | 464 days |
Compare to HUBS, BRZE, TTD, APP, APPS
In The Past
Zeta Global's stock fell -67.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -67.9% loss requires a 211.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Zeta Global (ZETA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Zeta Global is like **Salesforce's Marketing Cloud, but with a proprietary AI and data platform at its core for deeper customer intelligence.**
- Zeta Global is like **Adobe's Experience Cloud, but specialized in AI-driven omnichannel marketing for customer acquisition and retention.**
- Zeta Global is like **HubSpot for enterprises, powered by advanced AI and proprietary data for comprehensive marketing.**
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Zeta Marketing Platform (ZMP): An AI-powered, cloud-based platform designed to acquire, grow, and retain customers through personalized, cross-channel marketing campaigns.
- Zeta Data Cloud: A vast proprietary data asset that provides rich customer insights, identity resolution, and predictive intelligence to fuel the ZMP.
- AI & Machine Learning Solutions: Integrated capabilities within the ZMP that leverage artificial intelligence for advanced personalization, predictive modeling, and marketing automation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Zeta Global (ZETA) primarily sells its AI-powered marketing cloud platform and services to **other companies (B2B)**, not directly to individuals.
According to their most recent public filings (e.g., 2023 10-K), Zeta Global does not have any single customer that accounts for more than 10% of its revenue. Therefore, they do not disclose specific "major customers" by name.
Instead, Zeta Global serves a diversified base of large enterprise businesses across a variety of industries. Their customers are typically found in sectors such as:
- Financial Services
- Automotive
- Retail
- Travel
- Telecommunications
- Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
David A. Steinberg, Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO
David A. Steinberg is the co-founder, Chairman, and CEO of Zeta Global. He is a serial entrepreneur with over 30 years of experience, having founded multiple companies, including Sterling Cellular in 1993, InPhonic in 1999/2000, and CAIVIS Acquisition Corp.. He successfully grew Sterling Cellular to $22 million in sales before selling its retail and telemarketing operations in 1999. InPhonic became the largest online seller of cell phones, reaching over $300 million in revenue, going public in 2004, and topping the Inc. 500 list before filing for Chapter 11 and being acquired in 2007. Steinberg co-founded Zeta Global with John Sculley in 2007/2011. He has led six companies, with two achieving "unicorn" status and three being acquired in multi-million dollar deals. He has also taken two companies public (InPhonic and Zeta Global). Additionally, he serves as Chairman and co-founder of On Demand Pharma and Caivis Investment Corporation.
Christopher Greiner, Chief Financial Officer
Christopher Greiner has served as the Chief Financial Officer of Zeta Global since 2020, bringing over 20 years of experience in the technology sector. Before joining Zeta, he was the CFO of LivePerson Inc. from 2018 to 2020, where he was a key liaison for the investor community and contributed to a more than doubling of the company's market capital. Prior to LivePerson, Greiner spent five years at Inovalon, a cloud-based healthcare and life sciences analytics company, where he served as Chief Product and Operations Officer before becoming CFO and was part of the leadership team that took the company public. He also held various executive roles at IBM from 1999 to 2012, including CFO and COO of their multibillion-dollar analytics division, and at Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) from 2012 to 2013. Greiner has experience taking three companies public, including Zeta, and his career over the last decade has focused on Artificial Intelligence and analytics.
Steven Gerber, President & Chief Operating Officer
Steven Gerber has been a leader at Zeta Global since 2009, currently holding the position of President & Chief Operating Officer. He is responsible for overseeing the company's day-to-day management, including product development, business development, customer success, and operations. With over 20 years of experience in data-driven digital technology, Gerber's career includes a blend of consulting and entrepreneurial ventures. Previously, he was President & COO of Active Response Group, where he oversaw its sale and integration to Caivis Acquisition Corp. He also held positions as Senior Vice President at Tranzact LLC and management roles at Bain & Company and Digitas LLC/Classic.
Christian Monberg, Chief Technology Officer
Christian Monberg serves as the Chief Technology Officer and Head of Product at Zeta Global, a role he has held since joining the company in 2017. He is responsible for overseeing the product and technical vision, supporting Zeta's business strategy, and focusing on developing and acquiring key AI, data, and identity assets for the Zeta Marketing Platform. Prior to joining Zeta, Monberg co-founded Boomtrain, an AI-powered marketing platform that was subsequently acquired by Zeta Global.
Jeffry Nimeroff, Chief Information Officer
Jeffry Nimeroff is the Chief Information Officer at Zeta Global, a position he has held since March 2014. In this role, he oversees the company's information technology strategy and operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Zeta Global's (ZETA) business include:
- Data Privacy, Cybersecurity, and Regulatory Risks: Zeta Global's business model heavily relies on collecting and utilizing sensitive consumer data, making it highly vulnerable to data breaches and evolving data privacy regulations. Regulatory changes, such as those related to data protection and artificial intelligence, could impose significant compliance costs and operational challenges. A data breach or failure to comply with privacy laws could severely damage the company's reputation, lead to substantial legal claims, and impact its ability to operate.
- Legal and Reputational Risks from Allegations and Class Action Lawsuit: Zeta Global is facing a class action lawsuit and allegations of false financial reporting, including the use of "two-way contracts" and "round trip transactions" to artificially inflate results, as well as claims of utilizing "predatory consent farms" to collect user data. These allegations, which surfaced in a short seller report, led to a significant drop in the company's stock price and have damaged investor confidence. While Zeta Global has issued rebuttals and stated that a forensic review found its practices sound, the ongoing legal proceedings and the potential for further reputational harm represent a substantial risk to the business.
- Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Change: The digital marketing technology industry is highly competitive and characterized by rapid technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence. Zeta Global competes with well-established players like Adobe and Salesforce, as well as emerging AI-driven challengers. The company's failure to continually innovate, adapt to new technologies, or effectively compete on features and pricing could lead to a loss of market share, hinder its ability to acquire and retain customers, and negatively impact its financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
One clear emerging threat for Zeta Global is the accelerating trend of enhanced data privacy restrictions, particularly the deprecation of third-party cookies by major browsers and increasing global regulatory pressure. This shift fundamentally challenges traditional methods of cross-site data collection and user profiling that have historically underpinned much of the ad tech industry's ability to deliver personalized, targeted advertising. While Zeta Global has communicated its strategies for adapting to a "post-cookie world" by focusing on first-party data and alternative identifiers, the widespread implementation of these privacy changes could diminish the overall addressable market for third-party data-driven advertising and potentially increase the complexity or cost of achieving comparable reach and effectiveness. This also implicitly strengthens the market position of "walled garden" platforms (such as Google, Meta, and Amazon) which control vast amounts of first-party user data and can offer advertisers integrated, privacy-compliant solutions within their own ecosystems, potentially diverting ad spend away from independent marketing technology providers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Zeta Global's main product is the Zeta Marketing Platform (ZMP), an AI-powered Marketing Cloud that offers a suite of multichannel marketing tools, including customer relationship management (CRM), marketing automation, and customer data platform (CDP) functionalities. The addressable markets for these key product areas are as follows:
-
Marketing Cloud Platform Market: The global Marketing Cloud Platform Market is projected to reach approximately $18 billion by 2028, growing at an 8.0% CAGR. Other estimates suggest the market was valued at USD 13.15 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 22.11 billion by 2029, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6%. North America held the largest share of the marketing cloud platform market in 2024.
-
Customer Data Platform (CDP) Market: The global Customer Data Platform Market size was estimated at USD 5.9 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach around USD 25.4 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 33.2% from 2023 to 2032. Another report estimates the market at USD 3.71 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 14.31 billion by 2030, with a 23.47% CAGR. North America dominated the global customer data platform market in 2022, holding a 40% market share, and is expected to maintain its dominance.
-
AI Marketing Cloud Market: The AI marketing cloud market is projected to grow to $82.23 billion by 2030 globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Zeta Global (ZETA) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Scaled and Super-Scaled Customer Base: Zeta Global is strategically focused on increasing its number of "Scaled" customers (those spending at least $100,000 annually) and "Super-Scaled" customers (spending over $1 million annually). This customer acquisition and growth strategy is a primary driver for future revenue, with a reported 19% year-over-year increase in Scaled Customer count and a 10% increase in Super-Scaled Customer count in Q1 2025. These high-value clients already contribute significantly to total revenue, with Super-Scaled customers representing 70% of total revenue in Q1 2025.
- Increased Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) through Cross-selling and Product Breadth (OneZeta Initiative): The company aims to boost revenue by encouraging existing customers to adopt more of its products and services. Initiatives like "OneZeta" drive deeper platform adoption, as customers utilizing multiple use cases on the Zeta Marketing Platform generate over three times the annual revenue compared to single-use case customers. In Q1 2025, Scaled Customer ARPU grew by 12% year-over-year, and Super-Scaled Customer ARPU surged by 23% year-over-year, demonstrating strong cross-selling and product breadth.
- AI-Powered Innovation and New Product Launches: Zeta Global's significant investment in AI is a key differentiator. The launch of new AI-driven products, such as "Athena," an AI conversational agent, is expected to enhance client adoption by simplifying platform operations and driving customer expansion. Additionally, the introduction of the "Publisher Cloud" aims to create a closed-loop ecosystem, enhancing targeting and reach for clients and further increasing ARPU.
- Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions: Acquisitions play a crucial role in Zeta Global's growth strategy. The October 2024 acquisition of LiveIntent for $250 million enhanced Zeta's identity resolution capabilities and expanded its presence in the publisher monetization business through LiveIntent's network of over 2,000 premium publishers. Furthermore, the anticipated acquisition of Marigold's enterprise software business by year-end 2025 is expected to accelerate growth by bringing over 100 enterprise clients and valuable loyalty data assets, strengthening AI product offerings.
- Market Share Expansion in Key Verticals: Zeta Global is expanding its reach by displacing legacy marketing clouds and gaining market share in various industry verticals. Management has highlighted broad-based industry gains, particularly in sectors like telecom, and the company's efforts to move a greater percentage of brands onto its platform. This strategic expansion into new markets and verticals is designed to solidify its position in the marketing technology sector.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Zeta Global announced a new $100 million stock repurchase program on January 3, 2025, effective through December 31, 2026, complementing an existing program that had $14.7 million remaining and was set to expire on December 31, 2024.
- On August 5, 2025, the board of directors approved a new $200 million stock repurchase program over two years.
- As of July 25, 2025, $85 million of the $100 million share repurchase authorization approved in November 2024 had been utilized.
Share Issuance
- Zeta Global completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on June 10, 2021, raising $215 million by offering 21,500,000 shares at $10 per share.
- High stock-based compensation (SBC) has led to share dilution of 4-6% in FY25, a reduction from 15% in FY24.
- The company plans further dilution reductions to 3-4% in FY26, partly by reducing FY25 SBC by $5 million.
Inbound Investments
- Zeta Global raised $215 million through its IPO on June 10, 2021.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2024, Zeta Global acquired the marketing company LiveIntent.
- The acquisition of LiveIntent aims to expand Zeta's first-party data foundation and enhance identity resolution capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures amounted to $36 million in 2023 and $42 million in 2024.
- In the second quarter of 2025, capital expenditures for website and software development costs were approximately $9.953 million.
- The company invests significantly in its Zeta Hybrid Cloud infrastructure, which combines public and private cloud resources, and in strengthening data privacy, security, and AI governance within its platform.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ZETA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11302024 | ZETA | Zeta Global | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -38.3% | -14.3% | -48.3% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,008 |
| Op Inc LTM | 12 |
| FCF LTM | 359 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 261 |
| CFO LTM | 470 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 349 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.7 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/CFO | 19.7 |
| Total Yield | -0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -18.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -27.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -22.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -25.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -34.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -27.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -42.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -107.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $16.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/10/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $19.13 | $17.73 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -11.4% | -4.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 71.3% | 73.6% |
| Downside Capture | 475.25 | 276.73 |
| Upside Capture | 423.80 | 234.62 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 60.5% | 54.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 5.20 | 4.24 | 4.09 | 3.48 | 2.06 | 1.90 |
| Up Beta | 3.05 | 4.67 | 4.35 | 2.90 | 1.46 | 1.62 |
| Down Beta | 3.34 | 2.00 | 3.07 | 3.73 | 2.20 | 2.10 |
| Up Capture | 655% | 535% | 548% | 446% | 542% | 980% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 32 | 66 | 135 | 401 |
| Down Capture | 575% | 457% | 368% | 269% | 160% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 28 | 57 | 114 | 343 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZETA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZETA | -2.8% | 73.8% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.8% | 27.5% | 0.67 | 54.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 19.4% | 0.66 | 54.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 81.3% | 25.7% | 2.29 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 16.9% | 0.58 | 9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 16.6% | 0.25 | 31.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.0% | 44.9% | -0.42 | 34.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZETA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 14.2% | 72.5% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.7% | 24.8% | 0.61 | 43.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 44.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 17.1% | 1.12 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.44 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 57.0% | 0.29 | 25.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZETA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 6.9% | 72.5% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.5% | 24.2% | 0.85 | 43.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 44.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 65.8% | 66.8% | 1.05 | 25.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 19.4% | 18.6% | 14.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 27.5% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| 2/25/2025 | -13.7% | -18.2% | -26.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -23.2% | -46.7% | -41.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | 12.0% | 5.3% | 21.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | -1.5% | -6.6% | 1.6% |
| 11/1/2023 | 4.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.6% | -5.4% | -2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 13.6% | 14.0% | 11.2% |
| Median Negative | -9.2% | -6.6% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 27.5% | 18.6% | 21.1% |
| Max Negative | -23.2% | -46.7% | -41.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silberblatt, Jeanine | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.34 | 12,990 | 251,185 | 1,118,634 | Form |
ZETA Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a probability-adjusted skew of 3.92x, placing ZETA firmly in Tier 1. The powerful Alpha Driver of clear market share gains against large, slow-moving incumbents in a strong secular growth market outweighs the tangible, but manageable, regulatory risks. The company's valuation provides significant room for multiple expansion if it continues its elite execution cadence.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderZeta is growing revenue at over 20%, significantly outpacing larger incumbents and taking market share in a high-growth (18% CAGR) sector. Its current focus is on durable growth and scaling its platform, with profitability just beginning to inflect, fitting the 'High-Beta Compounder' profile which prioritizes growth durability and competitive moat over current cash generation.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Zeta's primary value driver is its ability to displace larger, more complex competitors like Adobe and Salesforce within the mid-market. By offering a natively integrated Customer Data Platform (CDP) and marketing cloud, Zeta provides a lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and superior ease-of-use, which is highly resonant with 'The Mid-Market CMO'—its core customer profile.
- Core revenue growth of 28% significantly outpaces Adobe Experience Cloud's 9% growth, indicating direct market share gains.
- Zeta is rated as the 'dominant player' for its target customer profile, 'The Mid--Market CMO', due to its superior TCO and integrated platform.
- The Customer Data Platform (CDP) market, a core part of Zeta's offering, is growing at an 18% CAGR, providing a strong secular tailwind.
- Initial 2026 revenue guidance of $1.54B represents 21% growth, indicating strong forward visibility and demand.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant friction is the escalating complexity and cost of navigating new state-level privacy laws effective in 2026. These regulations, particularly in states like California, impose stricter rules on data collection, use, and broker registration. This could increase compliance costs, limit the availability of third-party data that fuels Zeta's platform, and create headline risk that elongates sales cycles.
- Multiple new state privacy laws and amendments took effect in January 2026, with more (including California data broker rules) becoming effective mid-2026.
- Zeta is currently facing a class action complaint (as of August 2025) related to its data collection practices, amplifying the focus on this risk.
- The demise of third-party cookies, though a long-term tailwind for Zeta's first-party data solution, creates near-term uncertainty and 'signal loss' in the broader ecosystem.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Scaled Customer Count (YoY Growth) | > 18% | This is the primary driver of 'volume' growth. A slowdown below the current ~20% rate would be the first sign that the core value proposition is losing momentum against competitors. |
| Net Dollar Retention Rate | > 105% | The recent dip from 110% to 107% requires monitoring. A drop below 105% would indicate slowing expansion within the existing customer base, putting more pressure on new logo acquisition to drive growth. |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Consistent QoQ Expansion | As a newly profitable company on an operating basis, the primary EPS driver is margin expansion. The investment thesis relies on demonstrating consistent operating leverage as revenue scales. |
Execution vs. External Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Consistent 'beat-and-raise' quarters, strong guidance, and share gains from Adobe prove a superior, durable model that will achieve significant operating leverage.
CORE TENSION
Can Zeta's elite operational execution and market share gains sustainably drive growth and profitability despite looming structural headwinds from privacy regulation and cookie deprecation?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Zeta has reported 17 consecutive quarters of beating estimates and raising guidance. Initial 2026 revenue guidance of $1.54B (21% organic growth) demonstrates management's high confidence despite external risks.
BEAR VIEW
New privacy laws and the loss of third-party signals will inevitably raise compliance costs and blunt the effectiveness of its data, compressing margins and slowing growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & 2026 Guidance Watch: Full year 2026 organic revenue growth guidance and commentary on enterprise marketing budget scrutiny or 'seat compression'. |
April 20-21, 2026 | Adobe Summit 2026 Watch: Launch of a competitive, bundled generative AI feature for campaign automation within Adobe's Experience Cloud. |
July-August 2026 | Impact Disclosure of New State Privacy Laws Watch: Any disclosure in the 10-Q of increased compliance costs, litigation reserves, or revenue impact from new 2026 privacy laws. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-05 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Zeta reported strong Q2 results, with revenue growing 35% YoY to $308 million, beating estimates. The company also raised its full-year 2025 guidance. [1, 2, 6] | Flat (0.44%) $15.80 -> $15.87 |
2025-08-20 | Class Action Complaint Disclosure Details: News circulated regarding a class action complaint filed against the company alleging improper conduct and data collection practices, stemming from a prior short-seller report. | Fell notably by -4.42% $19.01 -> $18.17 |
2025-11-04 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Zeta reported its 17th consecutive beat-and-raise quarter, with revenue up 26% YoY. Despite strong results and increased guidance, the stock fell, suggesting market concern over broader sector trends. [8, 34] | Plummeted -5.22% $17.62 -> $16.70 |
2025-11-24 | Guidance Raised Post-Acquisition Details: Zeta raised its 2025 and 2026 guidance after completing the acquisition of Marigold's enterprise software business, signaling confidence in future growth. [23, 35] | Modest 1.22% gain $17.27 -> $17.48 |
2026-01-05 | Strategic Collaboration with OpenAI Details: At CES 2026, Zeta announced a strategic collaboration with OpenAI to power its Athena AI marketing agent, expanding beta access and targeting a full launch by end of Q1 2026. [24, 26] | Surged +8.84% $19.91 -> $21.67 |
2026-01-13 | Needham Growth Conference Details: Zeta participated in the Needham Growth Conference, an investor event. The stock saw a notable pullback during this period. | Fell notably by -3.17% $24.28 -> $23.51 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
The stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (6.0x S&P). While fundamentals are strong (Bullish sentiment, Widening Moat), the extreme volatility requires capping size to manage drawdown risk, per Bucket B, Scenario 3.
Diversification Alternatives
HUBS
SECTORHubSpot has a stronger, more recognized brand in the mid-market and a proven flywheel model, offering potentially more stable, albeit slower, growth than Zeta.
RAMP
INDUSTRYLiveRamp is a purer play on identity resolution, a critical technology in the post-cookie world. It's less a competitor and more a different way to invest in the same structural trend.
Zeta Global is an AI-powered marketing cloud platform re-rating from a high-growth but unprofitable MarTech company to a durable, profitable growth story, driven by its proprietary data moat and the adoption of its AI agent, Athena.
Filter all news through the lens of profitable growth and AI-driven market share gains from legacy marketing clouds.
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) above 115%; super-scaled customer count growth >20% YoY; accelerating organic revenue growth ex-acquisitions; positive GAAP Net Income quarters; announcements of major enterprises replacing legacy marketing clouds with the Zeta Marketing Platform (ZMP); successful integration and cross-selling from the Marigold acquisition.
Slowing organic growth below 20%; decline in Net Revenue Retention below 110%; significant increase in customer churn; inability to sustain GAAP profitability; major data privacy or security incidents; evidence that competitors like Adobe or Salesforce are successfully blunting Zeta's AI differentiation.
Quarterly political advertising revenue fluctuations – this is cyclical and expected; individual analyst price target changes – focus on the trend of estimates; short-term stock price volatility related to broad market 'SaaSpocalypse' fears – Zeta's usage-based model is more resilient than seat-based SaaS.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful rollout of the 'Athena' AI agent, coupled with the 'One Zeta' strategy, which is driving significant expansion within existing customers. This is evidenced by a record-high 120% Net Revenue Retention in 2025 and a >80% YoY increase in customers using multiple products. [2, 4] This adoption, combined with the acquisition of Marigold, is accelerating Zeta's path to sustained GAAP profitability, which it achieved in Q4 2025 and expects for the full year 2026. [1, 2]
AI-Powered Marketing Cloud Platform
$1.3B TTM (100% of Total) · 59.6% MarginWhat It Is
The Zeta Marketing Platform (ZMP) with integrated Customer Data Platform (CDP), omnichannel activation tools, and the 'Athena' conversational AI agent.
Who Pays & How
Over 600 scaled enterprise customers, including 51 of the Fortune 100, pay to unify their customer data and automate personalized marketing. [2] They choose Zeta for its proprietary data (SuperGraph covering 245M+ US adults) and AI, which deliver higher marketing ROI, as evidenced by a Forrester study showing a 600% return on ad spend. [2, 4]
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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