Zeta Global (ZETA)
Market Price (6/4/2026): $23.17 | Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Zeta Global (ZETA)
Market Price (6/4/2026): $23.17Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Artificial Intelligence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.6% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% Key risksZETA key risks include [1] an ongoing class action lawsuit alleging financial manipulation through "round trip transactions" and [2] claims of using "predatory consent farms" for user data collection. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Artificial Intelligence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.6% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Key risksZETA key risks include [1] an ongoing class action lawsuit alleging financial manipulation through "round trip transactions" and [2] claims of using "predatory consent farms" for user data collection. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Zeta Global (ZETA) stock has gained about 35% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Zeta Global reported exceptionally strong first-quarter 2026 financial results and significantly raised its full-year guidance.
The company announced Q1 2026 revenue of $396 million, marking a 50% year-over-year increase and surpassing the midpoint of its guidance by $26 million. This extended Zeta's "beat-and-raise" streak to 19 consecutive quarters. Following these results, Zeta Global increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance by $30 million to $1,785 million at the midpoint, representing 37% year-over-year growth, and also raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance.
2. The successful launch and rapid adoption of Athena by Zeta™, an AI-powered marketing platform, coupled with a strategic OpenAI collaboration, fueled investor enthusiasm.
Zeta Global launched Athena by Zeta™ for general availability on March 24, 2026. This AI marketing agent quickly gained traction, driving "greater than 7X more agent interactions and accounting for over 60% of AI platform usage in its first week of general availability." The company also highlighted a strategic collaboration with OpenAI to enhance Athena's conversational intelligence and agentic applications, which served as a near-term catalyst for the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.3% change in ZETA stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.95 | 23.27 | 37.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,305 | 1,437 | 10.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.0 | 3.9 | 29.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 231 | 239 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 37.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 39.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 41.6% | 40.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.5% change in ZETA stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.25 | 23.27 | 27.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,225 | 1,437 | 17.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 3.9 | 16.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 222 | 239 | -6.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 27.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 48.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 37.5% | 48.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 77.1% change in ZETA stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.14 | 23.27 | 77.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,075 | 1,437 | 33.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.6 | 3.9 | 48.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 213 | 239 | -10.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 77.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 77.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.4% | 46.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 70.9% | 41.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 158.0% change in ZETA stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 130.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.02 | 23.27 | 158.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 622 | 1,437 | 130.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 3.9 | 77.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 150 | 239 | -37.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 158.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 158.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.6% | 43.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 143.9% | 40.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ZETA Return | -5% | -3% | 8% | 104% | 13% | 24% | 184% |
| Peers Return | 23% | -67% | 96% | 140% | 35% | -10% | 132% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ZETA Win Rate | 57% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 27% | 65% | 62% | 47% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ZETA Max Drawdown | - | -68% | -34% | -53% | -55% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -72% | -38% | -42% | -60% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HUBS, BRZE, TTD, APP, APPS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ZETA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Zeta Global's stock fell -52.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 109.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ZETA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Zeta Global's stock fell -52.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 109.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Zeta Global (ZETA)
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Zeta Global:
Adobe Experience Cloud for predicting consumer intent.
Salesforce Marketing Cloud for AI-driven consumer intelligence.
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- Zeta Marketing Platform: Analyzes data to predict consumer intent and provides marketing automation software for omnichannel marketing.
- Consumer Data Platform (CDP): Ingests and analyzes disparate data to generate a single, comprehensive view of a consumer.
- Opportunity Explorer: A product suite designed to help enterprises identify and explore various business opportunities.
- CDP+: A product suite that consolidates and organizes multiple internal and external data feeds based on specific needs and performance metrics.
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Zeta Global (symbol: ZETA) sells primarily to other companies (B2B), providing its omnichannel data-driven cloud platform for consumer intelligence and marketing automation software to enterprises.
While specific major customer names are not publicly disclosed due to client confidentiality and Zeta Global's diversified customer base (its SEC filings confirm no single customer accounts for more than 10% of its revenue for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021, and 2020), their clientele typically consists of large organizations across various sectors that rely heavily on consumer data and sophisticated marketing strategies. These often include companies in industries such as:
- Financial Services (e.g., banks, insurance providers, credit card companies)
- Retail and E-commerce (large brick-and-mortar retailers, online brands)
- Telecommunications (e.g., mobile carriers, internet service providers)
- Automotive (manufacturers and dealerships)
- Media and Entertainment (publishers, streaming services)
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- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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David A. Steinberg, Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO
David A. Steinberg co-founded Zeta Global in 2007 and has served as its Chairman and CEO. A serial entrepreneur with over 30 years of experience, he has founded seven companies, sold four, and taken two public. Prior to Zeta, he founded and was CEO of InPhonic, an online seller of wireless phones and services which went public, and Sterling Cellular, where he sold off its retail and telemarketing operations. He also serves as Chairman of CAIVIS Acquisition Corp. While a direct pattern of managing private equity-backed companies isn't explicitly stated as a core strategy, Zeta Global did raise $125 million from Blackstone's GSO Capital Partners in 2015 to fund acquisitions.
Christopher Greiner, Chief Financial Officer
Christopher Greiner joined Zeta Global as Chief Financial Officer in 2020, bringing over 20 years of experience in the technology industry. Before his role at Zeta, he served as CFO of LivePerson Inc. from 2018 to 2020. He also spent five years at Inovalon, a cloud-based healthcare and life sciences analytics company, where he initially served as Chief Product and Operations Officer before becoming CFO. Earlier in his career, Mr. Greiner held various executive roles at IBM from 1999 to 2012 and at Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) from 2012 to 2013.
Steven Gerber, President
Steven Gerber has been a leader at Zeta Global since 2009 and currently serves as President, overseeing the company's day-to-day management, including product development, business development, customer success, and operations. He possesses over 20 years of experience in data-driven digital technology. Previously, Mr. Gerber was a Senior Vice President at Tranzact LLC and held management positions at Bain & Company and Digitas LLC. He also served as President & COO of Active Response Group, which was subsequently sold and integrated into Caivis Acquisition Corp.
Christian Monberg, Chief Technology Officer and Head of Product
Christian Monberg has been a Zeta leader since 2017. He is responsible for overseeing the product and technical vision, with a primary focus on developing and acquiring key AI, data, and identity assets for the Zeta Marketing Platform. Prior to joining Zeta, Mr. Monberg co-founded Boomtrain, an AI-powered marketing platform that was acquired by Zeta Global.
Steve Vine, EVP of Mergers and Acquisitions and General Counsel
Steve Vine is the Executive Vice President of Mergers and Acquisitions and General Counsel at Zeta Global. Before his tenure at Zeta, he was the Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and General Counsel at PulsePoint, where he was instrumental in leading multiple acquisitions and transforming the company into a prominent Content Marketing platform.
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The key risks to Zeta Global's business operations are primarily centered around intense market competition, evolving data privacy and regulatory landscapes, and the impact of macroeconomic conditions on marketing spending.
- Intense Competition: Zeta Global operates in a highly competitive digital marketing technology sector. The company faces significant competition from well-established and well-funded players such as Adobe and Salesforce, which possess extensive resources and broad product portfolios. Additionally, the emergence of innovative new startups in the marketing technology space could further disrupt the market and challenge Zeta's ability to maintain and expand its market share and growth rate.
- Data Privacy, Security, and Regulatory Challenges: As a data-driven platform that analyzes billions of data points, Zeta Global is continuously exposed to scrutiny and potential risks related to data collection, privacy, and security. Evolving global regulations concerning data protection and privacy, as well as the use of AI technologies, pose significant compliance challenges for the company. Non-compliance with these regulations could result in substantial fines, legal action, and significant damage to Zeta's reputation.
- Macroeconomic Conditions: Zeta Global's revenue is susceptible to broader economic downturns or uncertainties. During periods of economic slowdown, companies often reduce their marketing and advertising budgets, directly impacting the demand for Zeta's consumer intelligence and marketing automation software. This reliance on client marketing expenditures exposes the company to cyclical constraints, potentially leading to reduced revenue predictability.
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Zeta Global (ZETA) operates within several significant addressable markets for its main products and services, including marketing automation software, customer data platforms (CDP), consumer intelligence platforms, and broader omnichannel marketing platforms.
Marketing Automation Software
The global marketing automation software market was valued at USD 11.42 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 28.48 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.10% during the forecast period. North America is a dominant region in this market, holding approximately 40% of the global market share.
Customer Data Platforms (CDP)
The global customer data platform (CDP) market size was estimated at USD 8.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 58.41 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 27.8% from 2026 to 2033. North America held the largest revenue share of 37.6% in the global CDP market in 2025.
Consumer Intelligence Platforms
The global customer intelligence platform market size was estimated at USD 3,092.7 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 13,812.8 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 29.2% from 2025 to 2030. North America was the largest revenue-generating market in 2024, accounting for 35.5% of the global market.
Omnichannel Automated Marketing Platforms
The global omnichannel automated marketing platform market was valued at USD 47.02 billion in 2025 and is projected to experience a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2025 to 2033. North America accounts for approximately 40% of the global market share in this segment.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Zeta Global (ZETA) over the next 2-3 years:- AI Advancements and New Product Launches (Athena): Zeta Global is strategically investing in artificial intelligence and machine learning to drive future revenue. The company's AI platform, Athena, is expected to be a significant catalyst for growth, enhancing customer engagement and return on investment for clients by bringing generative AI capabilities to campaign optimization and automating marketing actions. Athena is planned for general availability to all customers by the end of Q1 2026.
- Growth in Scaled and Super-Scaled Customers: Zeta Global consistently emphasizes the expansion of its customer base, particularly those defined as "scaled customers" (spending over $100,000 annually) and "super-scaled customers" (spending over $1 million annually). The company has demonstrated a consistent increase in both the number of these high-value customers and their average revenue per user (ARPU).
- Expansion of Platform Use Cases and Customer Lifetime Value ("OneZeta"): A key driver is increasing the adoption of multiple use cases among existing clients through initiatives like "OneZeta." Customers who utilize more of Zeta's integrated platform services tend to spend significantly more, with multi-use case clients spending over three times the annual revenue of single-use case customers. This strategy focuses on deepening customer relationships and increasing their lifetime value.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Market Consolidation: Zeta Global has historically leveraged strategic acquisitions to expand its offerings and market presence. The integration of acquisitions, such as LiveIntent in 2025, has expanded Zeta's identity graph and presence in areas like email and retail media. The company aims to position itself as a consolidator in the fragmented marketing landscape.
- Geographic Expansion: While a majority of its sales are currently driven by the United States, Zeta Global is increasing investment in international markets, specifically EMEA and APAC, where digital transformation budgets are growing. This regional expansion aims to capture higher demand for marketing automation and personalized marketing at scale.
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Share Repurchases
- Zeta Global's board of directors authorized a new stock repurchase program of up to $200 million in August 2025, which also included provisions for withholding shares to satisfy tax requirements upon vesting of restricted stock awards.
- For the full year 2025, Zeta Global repurchased 7.9 million shares for $120 million, including 1.9 million shares for $35 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- In October to December 2024, the company completed two buyback tranches, repurchasing over 1.5 million shares for $30.77 million.
Share Issuance
- As part of the acquisition of Marigold's enterprise software business in November 2025, Zeta Global issued 5,329,070 new shares of Class A common stock.
Outbound Investments
- Zeta Global completed the acquisition of Marigold's enterprise software business in November 2025 for an aggregate consideration of up to $325 million.
- The consideration for the Marigold acquisition included $100 million in cash, 5,329,070 newly issued shares of Class A common stock, and seller notes totaling up to $125 million, which could be paid in cash or additional shares at Zeta's discretion.
- This acquisition was strategic, expanding Zeta's global footprint and enhancing its AI-powered offerings across loyalty, omnichannel engagement, and personalization, while increasing its presence among Fortune 500 brands.
Capital Expenditures
- Zeta Global's capital expenditures coverage averaged 6.7x from fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024.
- Capital expenditures coverage saw fluctuations, decreasing in 2021 (4.7x) and 2022 (3.5x), then increasing in 2023 (4.4x) and 2024 (5.2x).
- The company's capital expenditures are primarily financed through cash generated from operations and borrowings under credit facilities, with an estimated $8.2 million in capital expenditures in Q4 2025.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,203 |
| Op Inc LTM | 50 |
| FCF LTM | 393 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 288 |
| CFO LTM | 506 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 380 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 131.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 80.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.7 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 35.5 |
| P/EBIT | 22.1 |
| P/E | 0.6 |
| P/CFO | 25.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -94.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/10/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $17.71 | $18.66 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 31.4% | 24.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 67.8% | 73.4% |
| Downside Capture | 271.39 | 304.43 |
| Upside Capture | 254.02 | 285.25 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 40.7% | 46.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.66 | 0.96 | 1.74 | 2.55 | 2.82 | 1.95 |
| Up Beta | -4.48 | -0.29 | 0.84 | 1.48 | 2.56 | 1.66 |
| Down Beta | 1.28 | 0.64 | 1.53 | 2.09 | 3.03 | 2.13 |
| Up Capture | 195% | 245% | 289% | 494% | 660% | 1473% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 35 | 67 | 135 | 406 |
| Down Capture | -257% | 139% | 184% | 238% | 186% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 27 | 55 | 112 | 337 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZETA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 83.9% | 73.7% | 1.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 69.8% | 20.8% | 2.44 | 41.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.8% | 11.8% | 1.84 | 46.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 31.0% | 26.6% | 0.99 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.3% | 18.8% | 1.74 | -9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.8% | 13.2% | 0.45 | 16.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -37.1% | 42.1% | -0.98 | 25.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZETA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 21.7% | 72.2% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.1% | 24.9% | 0.85 | 42.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.65 | 44.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.1% | 18.0% | 0.82 | 6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 19.4% | 0.43 | 7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.05 | 28.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 54.7% | 0.40 | 24.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZETA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZETA | 10.3% | 72.2% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 26.0% | 24.5% | 0.95 | 42.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 44.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 16.0% | 0.69 | 6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 17.9% | 0.34 | 7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 28.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 65.0% | 66.9% | 1.04 | 24.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 1.0% | -6.2% | 36.9% |
| 2/24/2026 | 5.1% | 6.2% | -3.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | 19.4% | 18.6% | 14.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 27.5% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.4% | -1.3% | -4.2% |
| 2/25/2025 | -13.7% | -18.2% | -26.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -23.2% | -46.7% | -41.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | 12.0% | 5.3% | 21.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 7 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 12.0% | 14.0% | 13.6% |
| Median Negative | -9.2% | -6.2% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 27.5% | 21.4% | 36.9% |
| Max Negative | -23.2% | -46.7% | -41.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 419.00 Mil | 420.50 Mil | 422.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 86.20 Mil | 86.55 Mil | 86.90 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 1.78 Bil | 1.79 Bil | 1.79 Bil | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 1.76 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 396.20 Mil | 397.30 Mil | 398.40 Mil | 1.6% | Raised | Guidance: 391.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 234.50 Mil | 235.00 Mil | 235.50 Mil | 1.6% | Raised | Guidance: 231.20 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 369.00 Mil | 370.00 Mil | 371.00 Mil | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 364.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 61.20 Mil | 61.50 Mil | 61.80 Mil | -31.7% | Lower New | Actual: 90.10 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.75 Bil | 1.76 Bil | 1.76 Bil | 14.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.54 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 389.90 Mil | 391.00 Mil | 392.10 Mil | 10.5% | Raised | Guidance: 354.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 230.70 Mil | 231.20 Mil | 231.70 Mil | 10.6% | Raised | Guidance: 209.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2028 Revenue | 2.30 Bil | ||||||
| 2028 Adjusted EBITDA | 573.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2028 Free Cash Flow | 371.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silberblatt, Jeanine | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.34 | 12,990 | 251,185 | 1,118,634 | Form |
ZETA Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a probability-adjusted skew of 3.92x, placing ZETA firmly in Tier 1. The powerful Alpha Driver of clear market share gains against large, slow-moving incumbents in a strong secular growth market outweighs the tangible, but manageable, regulatory risks. The company's valuation provides significant room for multiple expansion if it continues its elite execution cadence.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderZeta is growing revenue at over 20%, significantly outpacing larger incumbents and taking market share in a high-growth (18% CAGR) sector. Its current focus is on durable growth and scaling its platform, with profitability just beginning to inflect, fitting the 'High-Beta Compounder' profile which prioritizes growth durability and competitive moat over current cash generation.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Zeta's primary value driver is its ability to displace larger, more complex competitors like Adobe and Salesforce within the mid-market. By offering a natively integrated Customer Data Platform (CDP) and marketing cloud, Zeta provides a lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and superior ease-of-use, which is highly resonant with 'The Mid-Market CMO'—its core customer profile.
- Core revenue growth of 28% significantly outpaces Adobe Experience Cloud's 9% growth, indicating direct market share gains.
- Zeta is rated as the 'dominant player' for its target customer profile, 'The Mid--Market CMO', due to its superior TCO and integrated platform.
- The Customer Data Platform (CDP) market, a core part of Zeta's offering, is growing at an 18% CAGR, providing a strong secular tailwind.
- Initial 2026 revenue guidance of $1.54B represents 21% growth, indicating strong forward visibility and demand.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant friction is the escalating complexity and cost of navigating new state-level privacy laws effective in 2026. These regulations, particularly in states like California, impose stricter rules on data collection, use, and broker registration. This could increase compliance costs, limit the availability of third-party data that fuels Zeta's platform, and create headline risk that elongates sales cycles.
- Multiple new state privacy laws and amendments took effect in January 2026, with more (including California data broker rules) becoming effective mid-2026.
- Zeta is currently facing a class action complaint (as of August 2025) related to its data collection practices, amplifying the focus on this risk.
- The demise of third-party cookies, though a long-term tailwind for Zeta's first-party data solution, creates near-term uncertainty and 'signal loss' in the broader ecosystem.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Scaled Customer Count (YoY Growth) | > 18% | This is the primary driver of 'volume' growth. A slowdown below the current ~20% rate would be the first sign that the core value proposition is losing momentum against competitors. |
| Net Dollar Retention Rate | > 105% | The recent dip from 110% to 107% requires monitoring. A drop below 105% would indicate slowing expansion within the existing customer base, putting more pressure on new logo acquisition to drive growth. |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Consistent QoQ Expansion | As a newly profitable company on an operating basis, the primary EPS driver is margin expansion. The investment thesis relies on demonstrating consistent operating leverage as revenue scales. |
Execution vs. External Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Consistent 'beat-and-raise' quarters, strong guidance, and share gains from Adobe prove a superior, durable model that will achieve significant operating leverage.
CORE TENSION
Can Zeta's elite operational execution and market share gains sustainably drive growth and profitability despite looming structural headwinds from privacy regulation and cookie deprecation?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Zeta has reported 17 consecutive quarters of beating estimates and raising guidance. Initial 2026 revenue guidance of $1.54B (21% organic growth) demonstrates management's high confidence despite external risks.
BEAR VIEW
New privacy laws and the loss of third-party signals will inevitably raise compliance costs and blunt the effectiveness of its data, compressing margins and slowing growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & 2026 Guidance Watch: Full year 2026 organic revenue growth guidance and commentary on enterprise marketing budget scrutiny or 'seat compression'. |
April 20-21, 2026 | Adobe Summit 2026 Watch: Launch of a competitive, bundled generative AI feature for campaign automation within Adobe's Experience Cloud. |
July-August 2026 | Impact Disclosure of New State Privacy Laws Watch: Any disclosure in the 10-Q of increased compliance costs, litigation reserves, or revenue impact from new 2026 privacy laws. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-05 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Zeta reported strong Q2 results, with revenue growing 35% YoY to $308 million, beating estimates. The company also raised its full-year 2025 guidance. [1, 2, 6] | Flat (0.44%) $15.80 -> $15.87 |
2025-08-20 | Class Action Complaint Disclosure Details: News circulated regarding a class action complaint filed against the company alleging improper conduct and data collection practices, stemming from a prior short-seller report. | Fell notably by -4.42% $19.01 -> $18.17 |
2025-11-04 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Zeta reported its 17th consecutive beat-and-raise quarter, with revenue up 26% YoY. Despite strong results and increased guidance, the stock fell, suggesting market concern over broader sector trends. [8, 34] | Plummeted -5.22% $17.62 -> $16.70 |
2025-11-24 | Guidance Raised Post-Acquisition Details: Zeta raised its 2025 and 2026 guidance after completing the acquisition of Marigold's enterprise software business, signaling confidence in future growth. [23, 35] | Modest 1.22% gain $17.27 -> $17.48 |
2026-01-05 | Strategic Collaboration with OpenAI Details: At CES 2026, Zeta announced a strategic collaboration with OpenAI to power its Athena AI marketing agent, expanding beta access and targeting a full launch by end of Q1 2026. [24, 26] | Surged +8.84% $19.91 -> $21.67 |
2026-01-13 | Needham Growth Conference Details: Zeta participated in the Needham Growth Conference, an investor event. The stock saw a notable pullback during this period. | Fell notably by -3.17% $24.28 -> $23.51 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
The stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (6.0x S&P). While fundamentals are strong (Bullish sentiment, Widening Moat), the extreme volatility requires capping size to manage drawdown risk, per Bucket B, Scenario 3.
Diversification Alternatives
HUBS
SECTORHubSpot has a stronger, more recognized brand in the mid-market and a proven flywheel model, offering potentially more stable, albeit slower, growth than Zeta.
RAMP
INDUSTRYLiveRamp is a purer play on identity resolution, a critical technology in the post-cookie world. It's less a competitor and more a different way to invest in the same structural trend.
Zeta Global is an AI-powered marketing cloud platform re-rating from a high-growth but unprofitable MarTech company to a durable, profitable growth story, driven by its proprietary data moat and the adoption of its AI agent, Athena.
Filter all news through the lens of profitable growth and AI-driven market share gains from legacy marketing clouds.
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) above 115%; super-scaled customer count growth >20% YoY; accelerating organic revenue growth ex-acquisitions; positive GAAP Net Income quarters; announcements of major enterprises replacing legacy marketing clouds with the Zeta Marketing Platform (ZMP); successful integration and cross-selling from the Marigold acquisition.
Slowing organic growth below 20%; decline in Net Revenue Retention below 110%; significant increase in customer churn; inability to sustain GAAP profitability; major data privacy or security incidents; evidence that competitors like Adobe or Salesforce are successfully blunting Zeta's AI differentiation.
Quarterly political advertising revenue fluctuations – this is cyclical and expected; individual analyst price target changes – focus on the trend of estimates; short-term stock price volatility related to broad market 'SaaSpocalypse' fears – Zeta's usage-based model is more resilient than seat-based SaaS.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful rollout of the 'Athena' AI agent, coupled with the 'One Zeta' strategy, which is driving significant expansion within existing customers. This is evidenced by a record-high 120% Net Revenue Retention in 2025 and a >80% YoY increase in customers using multiple products. [2, 4] This adoption, combined with the acquisition of Marigold, is accelerating Zeta's path to sustained GAAP profitability, which it achieved in Q4 2025 and expects for the full year 2026. [1, 2]
AI-Powered Marketing Cloud Platform
$1.3B TTM (100% of Total) · 59.6% MarginWhat It Is
The Zeta Marketing Platform (ZMP) with integrated Customer Data Platform (CDP), omnichannel activation tools, and the 'Athena' conversational AI agent.
Who Pays & How
Over 600 scaled enterprise customers, including 51 of the Fortune 100, pay to unify their customer data and automate personalized marketing. [2] They choose Zeta for its proprietary data (SuperGraph covering 245M+ US adults) and AI, which deliver higher marketing ROI, as evidenced by a Forrester study showing a 600% return on ad spend. [2, 4]
Competition
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Systems Software Resources |
| CNET |
| ZDNet |
| Gartner |
| Software Development Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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