Impinj (PI)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $146.7 | Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Impinj (PI)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $146.7Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, and Supply Chain Digitization. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 94x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 106% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 94x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 106% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Weaker-than-expected guidance for future quarters. Impinj's stock experienced significant plunges, including a 22% drop following weaker than expected guidance for the first quarter of 2025, and a 25.9% fall after disappointing fourth-quarter 2024 results where next-quarter revenue, EBITDA, and earnings guidance fell significantly short of expectations. This guidance pointed to a seasonal decline in endpoint integrated circuit (IC) revenues and delays in major projects with supply chain and logistics customers, which were anticipated to impact future revenues.
2. In-line revenue guidance overshadowing a quarterly earnings beat. On October 30, 2025, Impinj's shares fell 10.2% after its in-line fourth-quarter revenue guidance overshadowed an otherwise strong third-quarter earnings beat. Investors appeared disappointed by the projected revenue, even though the company's third-quarter results, including revenue and non-GAAP profit, had exceeded Wall Street's expectations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PI Return | 62% | 112% | 23% | -18% | 61% | 5% | 490% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 34% | -28% | 15% | 14% | -1% | 72% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 75% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 70% | 32% | 48% | 42% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PI Max Drawdown | -51% | -4% | -53% | -55% | -11% | -57% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -3% | -38% | -15% | -9% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ZBRA, AVY, NXPI, HON, TRMB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 187.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -81.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 436.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1070 days | 120 days |
Compare to ENS, BDC, SPB, ENR, AIN
In The Past
Impinj's stock fell -65.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/19/2023. A -65.2% loss requires a 187.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.9% | 12.9% | -5.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.9% | 12.9% | -5.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Impinj
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 188.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| Rev LTM | 7,012 |
| Op Inc LTM | 964 |
| FCF LTM | 722 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 579 |
| CFO LTM | 861 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 742 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.0 |
| P/E | 24.8 |
| P/CFO | 21.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -14.8% | -25.5% | -32.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | 26.5% | 30.9% | 55.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 16.5% | 19.5% | 49.5% |
| 1/14/2025 | -8.6% | -7.1% | -30.7% |
| 10/23/2024 | -13.6% | -13.8% | -15.4% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% |
| 4/24/2024 | 28.6% | 27.9% | 39.4% |
| 1/16/2024 | 11.4% | 27.2% | 26.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 18.7% | 21.9% | 34.7% |
| Median Negative | -11.9% | -17.1% | -19.1% |
| Max Positive | 29.2% | 44.3% | 66.1% |
| Max Negative | -39.1% | -35.2% | -41.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |