Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.68 | Market Cap: $20.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.68Market Cap: $20.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SMCI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock experienced a significant decline around August 2025 due to several key factors. While the requested end date is December 4, 2025, the most impactful events causing a substantial drop occurred in August 2025, primarily related to its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings and subsequent outlook. Here are the key points for why SMCI stock moved by approximately -18.9% during the specified period: 1. Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings Missed Expectations. Supermicro reported its fiscal Q4 2025 revenue of $5.76 billion, which was below analyst expectations of $5.89 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed consensus estimates, coming in at $0.41 compared to an expected $0.44. This disappointing financial performance for the quarter, which ended June 30, 2025, significantly impacted investor confidence. 2. Lowered Full-Year FY2026 Revenue Guidance. The company's forecast for full-year FY2026 revenue, while above Wall Street's $30 billion estimate at $33 billion, was a sharp reduction from a previous projection of $40 billion made in February 2025. This "guidance reset" hit investor sentiment hard, as it indicated a significant slowdown from earlier ambitious targets.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SMCI Return | 32% | 39% | 87% | 246% | 7% | 8% | 1271% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 5% | -16% | 34% | 5% | 3% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SMCI Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 50% | 33% | 52% | 42% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SMCI Max Drawdown | -33% | -2% | -21% | -14% | -37% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -10% | -30% | -6% | -10% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SMCI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 440 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 196.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 404 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN
In The Past
Super Micro Computer's stock fell -34.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/7/2023. A -34.5% loss requires a 52.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SMCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Super Micro Computer
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8282025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 2252025 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 2252025 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8282023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8292022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |