Tearsheet

AXT (AXTI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.34 | Market Cap: $541.0 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment

AXT (AXTI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.34
Market Cap: $541.0 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more.
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -22 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -24%
1  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 547%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 442%
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%
4  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 241%
5  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 103%
6  Key risks
AXTI key risks include [1] revenue shortfalls and negative gross margins resulting from Chinese export restrictions on key materials, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more.
1 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -22 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -24%
2 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 547%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 442%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 241%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 103%
7 Key risks
AXTI key risks include [1] revenue shortfalls and negative gross margins resulting from Chinese export restrictions on key materials, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AXTI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why AXT's stock moved significantly between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance Driven by Indium Phosphide Demand

AXT reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue of $28 million, significantly surpassing its guidance of $19-21 million. This marked a 56% sequential rebound from the previous quarter. A primary driver was the exceptional demand for indium phosphide (InP), especially for data center applications globally, leading to a 250% sequential increase in InP revenue to a three-year high of $13.1 million.

2. Successful Obtaining of Indium Phosphide Export Permits from China

Following trade restrictions imposed by China on indium phosphide exports in February 2025, AXT successfully secured export permits for numerous significant InP orders after receiving its initial permit in late June 2025. This enabled the company to resume shipments to crucial markets, which was a pivotal development. The backlog for indium phosphide orders subsequently more than doubled, reaching over $49 million, indicating strong future revenue streams.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AXTI Return120%-8%-50%-45%-10%499%199%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AXTI Win Rate42%50%25%33%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate29% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AXTI Max Drawdown-57%-22%-52%-56%-28%-47% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COHR, WOLF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAXTIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-87.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven696.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven770 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven159.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven41 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-73.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven283.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven412 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-89.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven878.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven557 days1480 days

Compare to Q, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, TER


In The Past

AXT's stock fell -87.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/19/2021. A -87.4% loss requires a 696.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AXT (AXTI)

Better Bets than AXT (AXTI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AXTI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AXT

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AXTICOHRWOLFMedian
NameAXT Coherent Wolfspeed 
Mkt Price12.36170.4417.1517.15
Mkt Cap0.226.62.72.7
Rev LTM906,043760760
Op Inc LTM-22608-625-22
FCF LTM-1974-1,518-19
FCF 3Y Avg-15197-2,023-15
CFO LTM-16527-574-16
CFO 3Y Avg-8593-520-8

Growth & Margins

AXTICOHRWOLFMedian
NameAXT Coherent Wolfspeed 
Rev Chg LTM-4.5%20.8%-5.6%-4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.8%16.5%8.7%8.7%
Rev Chg Q18.2%17.3%1.1%17.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.0%4.0%0.3%4.0%
Op Mgn LTM-24.4%10.1%-82.3%-24.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.4%5.1%-63.3%-18.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.9%0.8%0.6%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-17.5%8.7%-75.6%-17.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-9.0%11.4%-66.7%-9.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-20.9%1.2%-199.8%-20.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-16.7%3.9%-258.4%-16.7%

Valuation

AXTICOHRWOLFMedian
NameAXT Coherent Wolfspeed 
Mkt Cap0.226.62.72.7
P/S2.22.85.92.8
P/EBIT-31.9-2.614.7
P/E-8.667.3-2.3-2.3
P/CFO-12.531.9-7.8-7.8
Total Yield-11.6%1.5%-44.1%-11.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.1%-3.1%
D/E-0.20.00.1
Net D/E-0.2-0.2-0.0

Returns

AXTICOHRWOLFMedian
NameAXT Coherent Wolfspeed 
1M Rtn20.6%22.6%-5.3%20.6%
3M Rtn213.7%64.8%-139.3%
6M Rtn547.1%107.1%-327.1%
12M Rtn442.1%65.0%-253.6%
3Y Rtn161.9%390.3%-276.1%
1M Excs Rtn19.9%21.8%-6.0%19.9%
3M Excs Rtn210.8%56.4%-133.6%
6M Excs Rtn534.7%94.7%-314.7%
12M Excs Rtn424.0%48.7%-236.4%
3Y Excs Rtn76.3%312.9%-194.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Substrates471111037668
Raw Materials and Other2830342015
Total761411379583


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,012,066
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-12.9%
Average Daily Volume2,444,069
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity43,842,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20258.6%21.2%60.7%
7/31/2025-7.7%-1.0%39.4%
5/1/20253.0%-3.0%16.3%
2/20/2025-31.0%-27.9%-26.6%
10/31/2024-18.1%-18.1%-14.2%
8/1/2024-18.5%-24.3%-19.5%
5/2/202420.8%17.8%17.2%
2/22/202469.3%88.2%117.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111010
# Negative111212
Median Positive9.2%5.7%23.7%
Median Negative-8.2%-11.0%-9.7%
Max Positive69.3%88.2%117.1%
Max Negative-31.0%-27.9%-44.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024314202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021315202210-K 12/31/2021