AXT (AXTI)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $114.45 | Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
AXT (AXTI)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $114.45Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -21 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 59x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 1130%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 9209% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2600% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 134% Key risksAXTI key risks include [1] revenue shortfalls and negative gross margins resulting from Chinese export restrictions on key materials, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -21 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 59x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 1130%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 9209% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2600% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 134% |
| Key risksAXTI key risks include [1] revenue shortfalls and negative gross margins resulting from Chinese export restrictions on key materials, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
AXT (AXTI) stock has gained about 530% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Surging demand for Indium Phosphide (InP) for AI-focused data centers fueled AXT's stock growth. Indium Phosphide substrates are critical for high-speed optical data transmission required in the build-out of AI infrastructure. AXT reported a strong backlog for its Indium Phosphide products, exceeding $100 million, indicating robust and sustained customer demand.
2. A substantial capital raise enabled significant capacity expansion to meet this demand. In April 2026, AXT completed a public offering that raised approximately $550 million to $632.5 million. This capital infusion is earmarked to fund the expansion of its Indium Phosphide manufacturing capacity, with plans to more than double capacity in 2026 and again in 2027. This initiative de-risks near-term funding for growth.
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1. Surging demand for Indium Phosphide (InP) for AI-focused data centers fueled AXT's stock growth. Indium Phosphide substrates are critical for high-speed optical data transmission required in the build-out of AI infrastructure. AXT reported a strong backlog for its Indium Phosphide products, exceeding $100 million, indicating robust and sustained customer demand.
2. A substantial capital raise enabled significant capacity expansion to meet this demand. In April 2026, AXT completed a public offering that raised approximately $550 million to $632.5 million. This capital infusion is earmarked to fund the expansion of its Indium Phosphide manufacturing capacity, with plans to more than double capacity in 2026 and again in 2027. This initiative de-risks near-term funding for growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 517.3% change in AXTI stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 543.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.54 | 114.45 | 517.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90 | 88 | -2.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.0 | 57.8 | 543.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 45 | -1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 517.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXTI | 527.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 38.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.1% | 43.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1339.6% change in AXTI stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 1332.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.95 | 114.45 | 1339.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 86 | 88 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.0 | 57.8 | 1332.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 45 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1339.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXTI | 1363.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 33.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.1% | 38.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8075.0% change in AXTI stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 9361.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.40 | 114.45 | 8075.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 99 | 88 | -11.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 57.8 | 9361.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 43 | 45 | -2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8075.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXTI | 8211.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 38.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 68.1% | 43.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4186.5% change in AXTI stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 7111.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.67 | 114.45 | 4186.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 141 | 88 | -37.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 57.8 | 7111.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 42 | 45 | -5.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4186.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXTI | 4258.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 29.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 137.6% | 32.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXTI Return | -8% | -50% | -45% | -10% | 653% | 563% | 1033% |
| Peers Return | -10% | -49% | 24% | 118% | 37% | 116% | 269% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXTI Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 42% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXTI Max Drawdown | -22% | -52% | -56% | -28% | -47% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -56% | -21% | -7% | -35% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COHR, WOLF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXTI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 401 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 907 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -52.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1118 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 140 days |
In The Past
AXT's stock fell -49.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 97.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AXTI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 401 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 907 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -52.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1118 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.8% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 667 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1947 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 800.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 507 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
AXT's stock fell -49.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 97.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AXT (AXTI)
AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. It produces semiconductor substrates using its proprietary vertical gradient freeze technology. The company offers indium phosphide for use in data center connectivity using light/lasers, 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, terrestrial solar cells, RF amplifier and switching, infrared light-emitting diode (LEDS) motion control, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and infrared thermal imaging. It also provides semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs) substrates for use in Wi-Fi and IoT devices, transistors, direct broadcast television, power amplifiers, satellite communications, and solar cells; and semi-conducting GaAs substrates that are used in LED, screen displays, printer head lasers and LEDs, 3-D sensing using VCSELs, data center communication using VCSELs, sensors for industrial robotics/near-infrared sensors, optical couplers, solar cells, night vision goggles, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and other lasers, as well as laser machining, cutting, and drilling. In addition, the company offers germanium substrates for use in multi-junction solar cells for satellites, optical sensors and detectors, terrestrial concentrated photo voltaic cells, infrared detectors, and carrier wafer for LED. Further, it provides 6N+ and 7N+ purified gallium, boron trioxide, gallium-magnesium alloy, pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles, and pBN insulating parts. AXT, Inc. sells its products through direct salesforce in the United States, China, and Europe, as well as through independent sales representatives and distributors in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was formerly known as American Xtal Technology, Inc. and changed its name to AXT, Inc. in July 2000. AXT, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for AXT (AXTI):
- Corning for advanced semiconductor materials. AXT provides specialized substrates (like indium phosphide and gallium arsenide) that are foundational components for high-tech devices, similar to how Corning provides specialized glass and ceramics for displays and fiber optics.
- Shin-Etsu Chemical or Sumco for compound semiconductor wafers. AXT specializes in producing high-performance compound semiconductor wafers for specific advanced applications (e.g., 5G, photonics, lidar), playing a role akin to Shin-Etsu Chemical or Sumco for standard silicon wafers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AXT, Inc. (AXTI) provides the following major products:
- Indium Phosphide (InP) Substrates: Semiconductor substrates essential for data center connectivity, 5G communications, fiber optics, and various photonics and sensing applications.
- Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) Substrates: Semiconductor substrates (both semi-insulating and semi-conducting) used in Wi-Fi and IoT devices, power amplifiers, LEDs, laser applications, and solar cells.
- Germanium (Ge) Substrates: Semiconductor substrates primarily utilized for multi-junction solar cells in satellites, optical sensors and detectors, and infrared applications.
- Purified Gallium: High-purity metallic gallium, offered in 6N+ and 7N+ grades.
- Boron Trioxide: A chemical compound used as a raw material in various industrial processes.
- Gallium-Magnesium Alloy: A specific metallic alloy composed of gallium and magnesium.
- Pyrolytic Boron Nitride (pBN) Products: High-purity, high-temperature resistant materials provided as crucibles and insulating parts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AXT, Inc. (AXTI) designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes semiconductor substrates and related materials, indicating it primarily sells to other companies (B2B).
Based on the provided description, AXT's products are critical components for businesses operating in a wide range of high-tech sectors, including:
- Companies involved in data center connectivity, 5G communications, and fiber optics (e.g., using light/lasers, silicon photonics, VCSELs).
- Manufacturers of Wi-Fi and IoT devices, transistors, direct broadcast television, power amplifiers, and satellite communications equipment.
- Producers of LEDs, screen displays, printer head lasers, 3-D sensing solutions (VCSELs), and near-infrared sensors.
- Enterprises focused on solar energy (terrestrial, multi-junction, and concentrated photovoltaic cells).
- Developers of advanced technologies for robotics, autonomous vehicles (lidar), and infrared thermal imaging.
- Suppliers for aerospace and defense applications.
However, the provided background information does not explicitly name any specific major customer companies or their public symbols. Therefore, a list of individual customer companies cannot be provided.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Morris S. Young, Ph. D. Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Morris Young co-founded AXT in 1986 and has served as a director since 1989. He held the roles of Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer from 1989 to May 2004, and then as Chief Technology Officer from 2004 until his retirement in 2006. Dr. Young was reappointed as Chief Executive Officer on July 16, 2009, and as Chairman of the Board of Directors on August 12, 2021. Prior to founding AXT, he worked as a physicist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory from 1985 to 1989 and as a member of the technical staff at AT&T Bell Labs.
Gary L. Fischer Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Gary Fischer joined AXT as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in August 2014. He is responsible for AXT's global finance and accounting organization. Mr. Fischer has extensive experience in Silicon Valley, including work in Asia and Europe. In 1993, he became the Chief Financial Officer of ISSI, an advanced memory solutions company, which he took public in 1995, later becoming its President and Chief Operating Officer. He also served as VP and CFO at Shaman-Labs and as President & COO, CFO, and Board Member at Integrated Silicon Solution Inc. In 2005, he joined eRide, a fabless semiconductor company, which was acquired in 2009. Following this, he consulted for various growth companies on finance and M&A projects.
Dr. Wei Gao Chief Technical Officer
Dr. Wei Gao oversees AXT's critical research and development efforts in compound semiconductor substrates. Dr. Gao is also the founder of Axcel Photonics, Inc. His past experience includes roles as Senior Engineer in the Optoelectronics Division at Nortel Networks, VP of Sales and Marketing at Precision Digital Corporation, VP of Engineering at Raydex Technology Inc., and Principal at Lasertron, Inc., Peking University, and Multiplex, Inc.
Timothy Bettles Vice President of Business Development
Timothy Bettles focuses on market expansion and strategic partnerships for AXT.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to AXT, Inc.'s business:
- Export Control Regulations and Geopolitical Tensions: AXT's operations are significantly exposed to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning China's export control regulations. China has placed indium phosphide, a critical material for AXT, on its export control list, requiring government permits for every overseas shipment. This introduces considerable uncertainty into revenue forecasting and can lead to opaque and volatile shipment interruptions, directly impacting the company's ability to recognize revenue and deliver products to international customers. The company's strong operational base in China exacerbates its vulnerability to these trade policies.
- Volatile Revenue and Profitability / Cyclical Demand: AXT has experienced significant volatility in its revenue and margin performance. The company's revenue has seen substantial year-over-year swings, including a near 50% drop between 2022 and 2023 due to softer demand in compound semiconductor end markets. AXT faces financial challenges, including negative earnings and declining margins, and operates within the semiconductor industry, which is inherently subject to cyclical demand.
- Execution Risks Related to Capacity Expansion and Operational Efficiency: AXT is undertaking ambitious plans to double its indium phosphide production capacity. Such large-scale capacity expansion inherently carries execution challenges. The company has previously faced issues with production yields in certain gallium arsenide products and challenges related to underutilized manufacturing capacity, indicating ongoing operational efficiency risks.
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Addressable Markets for AXT's Main Products
AXT, Inc. (AXTI) manufactures and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates, including indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, and germanium. The addressable markets for these main products are global.Indium Phosphide (InP) Substrates
The global indium phosphide (InP) wafer market was valued at approximately USD 198.17 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 385.65 million by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.73% from 2026 to 2031. Another estimate places the global InP Wafer Market at USD 211.3 million in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 627.7 million by 2035 at an 11.5% CAGR. Demand for InP substrates is driven by high-speed optical communication infrastructure, 5G and emerging 6G networks, photonic integrated circuits (PICs), data center connectivity, and advanced sensing applications like LiDAR.Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) Substrates
The global gallium arsenide (GaAs) substrate market is estimated at USD 1.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 2.8 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 8% from 2025 to 2033. More specifically, the global gallium arsenide wafer market size is estimated at USD 1.46 billion in 2026, with projections to reach USD 2.48 billion by 2031, exhibiting an 11.27% CAGR over 2026-2031. Semi-insulating GaAs substrates accounted for 53.15% of the gallium arsenide wafer market share in 2025. This growth is fueled by increasing demand in wireless communication, 5G technologies, optoelectronic devices, and high-frequency applications for devices like RF amplifiers and optoelectronic components.Germanium (Ge) Substrates
The global germanium wafer (Ge Wafer) market size was valued at approximately USD 250 million in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 450 million by 2032, expanding at a CAGR of 6.5% during the forecast period. This market growth is primarily driven by the increasing demand for advanced semiconductor materials and optoelectronic devices, particularly for high-efficiency solar cells (including multi-junction solar cells for satellites and terrestrial concentrated photovoltaics), high-speed electronics, and infrared optics.Other Materials
For purified gallium, boron trioxide, gallium-magnesium alloy, pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles, and pBN insulating parts, specific addressable market sizes are not readily available in the provided information.AI Analysis | Feedback
AXT, Inc. (AXTI) is poised for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key factors in the compound semiconductor market.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for AXT:
- Surging Demand for Indium Phosphide (InP) in AI Data Centers and Optical Connectivity: AXT is a foundational supplier of Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates, which are critical for high-speed optical connections essential in advanced artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and communication networks. The accelerating build-out of AI infrastructure is significantly increasing the demand for these specialized wafers.
- Expansion of Indium Phosphide (InP) Manufacturing Capacity: To meet the robust demand for InP, AXT is actively expanding its manufacturing capabilities. The company aims to more than double its Indium Phosphide production capacity by the end of 2026 compared to 2025 levels, utilizing proceeds from recent public offerings to fund this expansion.
- Broadening Customer Base with Tier-1 Companies: AXT is strategically broadening its customer base to include Tier-1 companies, particularly within the AI infrastructure sector, where it previously had limited exposure. This expansion to larger, high-volume customers is expected to drive significant revenue growth.
- Growth in Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) and Germanium (Ge) Substrates and Raw Material Joint Ventures: Beyond InP, AXT anticipates continued healthy demand across its other product categories, including semi-insulating and semi-conducting Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) and Germanium (Ge) substrates. The company's consolidated raw material joint ventures also contribute positively, ensuring a stable supply chain and supporting overall revenue.
- Resolution and Improved Efficiency of Export Permit Processes: Recent revenue has been impacted by delays in export permits from China for Indium Phosphide shipments. However, AXT expects the permit issuance process to improve, allowing them to fulfill a substantial backlog of orders and achieve sequential revenue growth in early 2026. This improved predictability in export logistics is crucial for consistent revenue streams.
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Share Issuance
- AXT completed an underwritten public offering in December 2025, raising approximately $87 million in gross proceeds from the sale of 7,098,492 shares of common stock at $12.25 per share.
- The company also granted the underwriter an option to purchase up to 1,064,773 additional shares, which, if fully exercised, would bring the total gross proceeds to approximately $100 million.
- The net proceeds from this offering are primarily designated to increase the manufacturing capacity of its subsidiary, Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology Co., Ltd., for indium phosphide substrates, as well as for research and development and general corporate purposes.
Capital Expenditures
- AXT Inc. invested $2.2 million in capital expenditures during Q3 2025, marking a 679.6% increase from the prior quarter.
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $5.8 million, impacting free cash flow.
- The company plans to more than double its indium phosphide manufacturing capacity in the second half of 2026, driven by strong demand from AI infrastructure build-out and high-speed optical connectivity markets.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 114.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| Rev LTM | 701 |
| Op Inc LTM | -21 |
| FCF LTM | -279 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -17 |
| CFO LTM | 64 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 225 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 733.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -23.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -6.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -14.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| P/Op Inc | -3.5 |
| P/EBIT | 28.6 |
| P/E | -13.7 |
| P/CFO | 26.6 |
| Total Yield | -0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 78.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 200.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 163.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 373.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1,045.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 73.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 193.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 139.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 348.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 809.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $116.36 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/21/1998 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $63.89 | $24.18 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 82.1% | 381.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 183.4% | 132.9% |
| Downside Capture | -0.06 | 0.29 |
| Upside Capture | 734.78 | 596.76 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 37.9% | 37.9% |
AXTI Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.63 | 3.45 | 4.67 | 3.88 | 4.04 | 2.18 |
| Up Beta | 2.16 | 1.83 | 2.95 | 2.89 | 4.02 | 0.92 |
| Down Beta | 11.50 | 5.50 | 4.86 | 4.57 | 4.91 | 2.56 |
| Up Capture | 453% | 707% | 1950% | 2848% | 9103% | 38542% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 24 | 36 | 71 | 141 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 1539% | 181% | 179% | 119% | 131% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 19 | 28 | 53 | 106 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | 8,340.5% | 133.8% | 3.97 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 63.9% | 20.8% | 2.27 | 43.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 38.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | -1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | -6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 6.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 20.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | 60.9% | 94.6% | 0.92 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.2% | 24.8% | 0.76 | 35.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 32.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 4.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 18.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 17.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | 45.1% | 81.6% | 0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.0% | 24.4% | 0.92 | 36.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 20.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 14.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 21.2% | 36.9% | |
| 1/9/2026 | -11.0% | -0.4% | 7.5% |
| 10/30/2025 | 8.6% | 21.2% | 60.7% |
| 7/31/2025 | -7.7% | -1.0% | 39.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | 3.0% | -3.0% | 16.3% |
| 2/20/2025 | -31.0% | -27.9% | -26.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | -18.1% | -18.1% | -14.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -18.5% | -24.3% | -19.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.5% | 6.0% | 17.2% |
| Median Negative | -11.0% | -10.5% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 69.3% | 88.2% | 117.1% |
| Max Negative | -31.0% | -27.9% | -37.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chen, Jesse | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 50.25 | 8,083 | 406,168 | 5,503,649 | Form | |
| 2 | Young, Morris S | CEO | Young Family Trust DTD | Sell | 3162026 | 51.13 | 37,905 | 1,938,018 | 116,333,653 | Form |
| 3 | Fischer, Gary L | CFO | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 50.64 | 80,776 | 4,090,715 | 9,686,834 | Form |
| 4 | Chen, Jesse | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 48.95 | 6,003 | 293,871 | 5,757,443 | Form | |
| 5 | Fischer, Gary L | CFO | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 50.20 | 8,256 | 414,431 | 13,656,431 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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