Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2%

Key risks
AA key risks include [1] acute operational vulnerability to high energy costs and supply interruptions, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2%
4 Key risks
AA key risks include [1] acute operational vulnerability to high energy costs and supply interruptions, Show more.

AA in ETFs

Weight = AA's share of each fund

VTI0.03%
ITOT0.02%
IWB0.02%
IJH0.39%
VB0.25%
IYM1.4%
MDYV0.80%
IJJ0.80%
+18 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/1/2026

Alcoa (AA) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Alcoa missed analyst expectations for its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings.

On April 16, 2026, Alcoa reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.60 by $0.20, representing a 12.50% negative surprise. Additionally, the company's revenue for fiscal Q1 2026 was $3.19 billion, missing analysts' forecasts of $3.35 billion and marking a 5.2% year-over-year decline. This earnings miss contributed to a sharp decline in the stock price.

2. The company provided a mixed operational outlook for fiscal Q2 2026.

Concurrent with its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings release on April 16, 2026, Alcoa projected a negative adjustment of approximately $15 million in Adjusted EBITDA for its Alumina Segment in fiscal Q2 2026. This was attributed to reduced bauxite prices and volumes from offtake contracts, coupled with rising energy expenses, particularly diesel, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. While the Aluminum Segment was expected to see a positive Adjusted EBITDA adjustment of about $55 million due to strategic inventory adjustments and higher shipment volumes, this mixed outlook created uncertainty.

Show more
Updated on 7/1/2026

Alcoa (AA) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Alcoa missed analyst expectations for its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings.

On April 16, 2026, Alcoa reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.60 by $0.20, representing a 12.50% negative surprise. Additionally, the company's revenue for fiscal Q1 2026 was $3.19 billion, missing analysts' forecasts of $3.35 billion and marking a 5.2% year-over-year decline. This earnings miss contributed to a sharp decline in the stock price.

2. The company provided a mixed operational outlook for fiscal Q2 2026.

Concurrent with its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings release on April 16, 2026, Alcoa projected a negative adjustment of approximately $15 million in Adjusted EBITDA for its Alumina Segment in fiscal Q2 2026. This was attributed to reduced bauxite prices and volumes from offtake contracts, coupled with rising energy expenses, particularly diesel, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. While the Aluminum Segment was expected to see a positive Adjusted EBITDA adjustment of about $55 million due to strategic inventory adjustments and higher shipment volumes, this mixed outlook created uncertainty.

3. A significant decline in aluminum prices negatively impacted market sentiment.

After a rally from March to May 2026 driven by supply disruptions, aluminum prices experienced a notable downturn in June 2026. The price fell below $3,100 per tonne, reaching its lowest point since February 2026, and extending June's monthly plunge to 16%, the steepest since 2008. By July 1, 2026, aluminum prices were down 17.67% over the prior month. This macroeconomic factor was largely influenced by a stronger US dollar, expectations of renewed metal shipments from the Middle East following a potential US-Iran deal, and increased production from major producers like China and Indonesia.

4. The announcement of a major acquisition sparked concerns over financing and potential dilution.

On June 30, 2026, Alcoa announced a definitive agreement to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for an upfront consideration of $4.1 billion, which includes $3.1 billion in cash and approximately $1 billion in Alcoa shares. Following this announcement, Alcoa's shares fell nearly 5% in premarket trading. Although management anticipates the deal will be immediately accretive to earnings and cash flow, the market reacted with concerns regarding the financing structure, the issuance of new shares, and the acquisition's "slight premium to historical valuation metrics."

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -28.3% change in AA stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267012026Change
Stock Price ($)66.2247.48-28.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,83112,655-1.4%
Net Income Margin (%)9.0%8.2%-9.4%
P/E Multiple14.812.1-18.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)259264-1.9%
Cumulative Contribution-28.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AA-28.3% 
Market (SPY)14.7%30.7%
Sector (XLB)2.1%37.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.4% change in AA stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)123120257012026Change
Stock Price ($)52.9747.48-10.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,86812,655-1.7%
Net Income Margin (%)8.9%8.2%-8.3%
P/E Multiple12.012.11.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)259264-1.9%
Cumulative Contribution-10.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AA-10.4% 
Market (SPY)9.7%31.6%
Sector (XLB)13.0%41.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 62.4% change in AA stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 37.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257012026Change
Stock Price ($)29.2447.4862.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,66512,655-0.1%
Net Income Margin (%)6.8%8.2%20.3%
P/E Multiple8.812.137.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)259264-1.9%
Cumulative Contribution62.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AA62.4% 
Market (SPY)21.7%40.2%
Sector (XLB)17.9%47.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 44.9% change in AA stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 100.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237012026Change
Stock Price ($)32.7747.4844.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,82812,6557.0%
P/S Multiple0.51.0100.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)178264-32.6%
Cumulative Contribution44.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AA44.9% 
Market (SPY)74.2%48.6%
Sector (XLB)30.0%56.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AA Return159%-23%-24%12%42%-2%138%
Peers Return28%-18%39%0%69%47%265%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AA Win Rate75%42%42%50%67%67% 
Peers Win Rate54%44%54%48%73%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AA Max Drawdown-29%-64%-58%-37%-43%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-49%-33%-38%-32%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CSTM, CENX, KALU, RS. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/1/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventAAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-37.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven59.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven183 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-26.1%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven35.2%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven52 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-34.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.7%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven162 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-33.5%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.5%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven544 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-44.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven78.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven1193 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-67.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven204.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven241 days140 days

Compare to CSTM, CENX, KALU, RS

In The Past

Alcoa's stock fell -37.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventAAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-37.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven59.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven183 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-26.1%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven35.2%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven52 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-34.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.7%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven162 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-33.5%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.5%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven544 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-44.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven78.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven1193 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-67.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven204.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven241 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-41.4%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven70.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven960 days105 days

Compare to CSTM, CENX, KALU, RS

In The Past

Alcoa's stock fell -37.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alcoa (AA)

Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a global leader in the production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum. The company operates across a vertically integrated value chain, starting with the mining of bauxite ore. This bauxite is then processed into alumina, a key industrial chemical, which Alcoa either sells to external customers or uses internally to produce primary aluminum through its smelting and casting businesses.

Alcoa's main products include bauxite, alumina, and various forms of primary aluminum ingot. These aluminum products are essential inputs for diverse industries such as transportation, building and construction, packaging, and wire manufacturing. In addition to its core metal production, Alcoa also owns and operates hydro power plants, generating and selling electricity to the wholesale market, serving a range of customers including traders, large industrial consumers, and distribution companies.

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The ExxonMobil of aluminum.

Like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) for the aluminum industry.

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  • Bauxite: This is the raw ore mined by Alcoa, which is then processed into alumina.
  • Alumina: An intermediate product derived from bauxite, sold to customers who process it into industrial chemical products or further into aluminum.
  • Primary Aluminum: Offered in forms such as alloy ingot and value-add ingot, serving industries like transportation, building and construction, packaging, and wire.
  • Electricity: Generated from Alcoa's owned hydropower plants and sold in the wholesale market to various consumers and companies.

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William F. Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer

William F. Oplinger joined Alcoa in 2000 and has served as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a director since September 2023. Prior to his current role, he was Chief Operating Officer from February to September 2023, and Chief Financial Officer for Alcoa Corporation from 2016 to February 2023, and for Alcoa Inc. from 2013 to 2016. Mr. Oplinger has extensive experience leading Alcoa's finance function, overseeing treasury, pension, tax, controllership, financial planning and analysis, audit, investor relations, and transformation. He also served as Chief Operating Officer for Alcoa Global Primary Products, where he was responsible for the daily operations of its mining, refining, smelting, casting, and energy businesses, and oversaw significant restructuring efforts and the optimization of centers of excellence. Before joining Alcoa, he held engineering and management positions at Westinghouse and Emerson Electric.

Molly S. Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Molly S. Beerman was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective February 1, 2023. Prior to this, she served as Vice President and Controller for Alcoa Corporation since December 2016. Ms. Beerman is a seasoned financial executive known for her expertise in technical accounting, process improvement, and technology. She held various leadership roles with Alcoa Inc. from 2001 to 2012, including Director of Global Procurement Center of Excellence and Manager of North America Financial Accounting Services. She also served as Director of Global Shared Services Strategy and Solutions. From 2012 to 2015, she was Vice President of Finance and Administration for The Pittsburgh Foundation, a non-profit organization, and returned to Alcoa in 2015 in a consulting capacity for the finance department related to the separation transaction. Earlier in her career, she held financial management positions at Carnegie Mellon University, PNC Bank, and Deloitte.

Matthew T. Reed, Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer

Matthew T. Reed serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, responsible for the daily operations of Alcoa's global bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. He joined Alcoa in June 2023 as Vice President Operations, Australia and President, Alcoa of Australia.

Andrew Hastings, Executive Vice President and General Counsel

Andrew Hastings is the Executive Vice President and General Counsel, overseeing Alcoa's global legal, security, compliance, and governance matters. Before joining Alcoa in September 2023, he served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel at Lundin Mining Corporation from February 2019 to August 2023.

Renato Bacchi, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Renato Bacchi is the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, leading the company’s sales and trading, marketing, supply chain, commercial operations, procurement, and transformation initiatives. He also oversees Alcoa's global energy assets and breakthrough technology programs. He was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer effective February 1, 2022, and previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer.

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The key risks to Alcoa's business include the volatility of commodity prices and energy costs, geopolitical factors and trade policies, and increasing environmental regulations.

  1. Commodity Price Volatility and High Energy Costs

    Alcoa's profitability is highly sensitive to the volatile market prices of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum, its primary products. As an energy-intensive industry, aluminum production is also significantly impacted by fluctuations in electricity and natural gas prices, which represent a substantial portion of Alcoa's production costs. This dual exposure to both input and output price volatility makes the company vulnerable to market swings.

  2. Geopolitical Risks, Trade Restrictions, and Tariffs

    Geopolitical issues, trade sanctions, and tariffs pose a significant risk to Alcoa's global operations. Such factors can disrupt supply chains for raw materials like bauxite and alumina, lead to increased transportation costs, and affect market access. For example, US tariffs on imported aluminum can directly increase costs for the company's Aluminum segment.

  3. Environmental Regulations and Compliance Costs

    The aluminum industry faces mounting scrutiny regarding its environmental footprint, particularly concerning greenhouse gas emissions from its energy-intensive production processes. Alcoa is subject to evolving environmental regulations, which necessitate substantial capital expenditure for compliance and asset optimization. Adherence to stricter environmental policies, including those related to water pollution and land use from mining activities, can lead to increased operating expenses and impact profitability.

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Alcoa Corporation operates in three main segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. The addressable markets for these products are global.

  • Bauxite: The global bauxite market size was estimated at approximately USD 16.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach about USD 20.45 billion by 2034. Another estimate places the global bauxite market size at USD 17.1 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 21.5 billion by 2034. Asia-Pacific is the dominating region in the bauxite market.
  • Alumina: The global alumina market size was estimated at over USD 40 billion in 2020 and is anticipated to grow to USD 46.53 billion by 2030. More recent estimates indicate the global alumina market size was approximately USD 46.83 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 70.8 billion by 2034. Smelter-grade alumina (SGA), which Alcoa produces, accounts for over 92% of global alumina demand. The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the alumina market.
  • Aluminum: The global aluminum market size was estimated at USD 178.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 315.5 billion by 2034. Other estimations include a market size of USD 199.83 billion in 2024, growing to USD 307.36 billion by 2033, and USD 190.98 billion in 2025, increasing to approximately USD 347.29 billion by 2035. The Asia Pacific region accounts for the largest share of the global aluminum market.

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Alcoa Corporation (AA) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:

  1. Increasing Global Aluminum Demand: The demand for aluminum is expected to grow significantly due to global trends in electrification, decarbonization, and digital infrastructure. Aluminum is a critical component in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems (like solar panels and wind turbines), modern power grids, and data centers. Additionally, traditional sectors such as transportation, building and construction, and packaging continue to drive demand.
  2. Enhanced Production Capacity and Shipments: Alcoa anticipates increased aluminum production and shipment volumes resulting from the restart of key smelters. Notably, the San Ciprián smelter in Spain is on track for a full restart by mid-2026, contributing to higher output. Increased production from other facilities, such as Alumar in Brazil and Lista in Norway, is also expected to boost overall capacity.
  3. Favorable Aluminum Pricing and Premiums: Positive market dynamics, including strong aluminum prices and regional premiums, are projected to contribute to revenue growth. Factors such as U.S. Section 232 tariffs and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe are expected to support higher Midwest premiums and overall aluminum pricing. Geopolitical tensions have also played a role in recent increases in global aluminum prices.
  4. Strategic Monetization of Non-Core Assets: Alcoa is actively pursuing a strategy to monetize its closed or curtailed industrial sites, including selling them to data center developers. The company expects to complete the first sale of these sites by June 2026, creating a new revenue stream by repurposing legacy assets for emerging digital infrastructure needs.

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Share Repurchases

  • In July 2022, Alcoa announced an additional $500 million share repurchase program, with $275 million utilized in the second quarter of 2022.
  • As of October 2025, approximately $500 million remained in the share repurchase plan, contingent on the availability of excess cash.
  • Over the five-year period ending December 2025, Alcoa's 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio was -8.00%, indicating a net increase in outstanding shares despite repurchase authorizations.

Share Issuance

  • In August 2024, Alcoa completed an all-stock acquisition of Alumina Limited, resulting in a significant issuance of Alcoa shares.
  • As part of this transaction, 2,760,056,014 Alumina Limited shares were exchanged for 78,772,422 shares of Alcoa common stock on August 1, 2024.
  • The company's shares outstanding increased by 20.22% in 2024 to 0.214 billion and by 22.06% in 2025 to 0.261 billion, largely due to the Alumina Limited acquisition.

Outbound Investments

  • In 2024, Alcoa acquired the remaining 40% interest in Alumina Limited, consolidating 100% ownership of the Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC) joint venture, for an implied consideration of approximately $2.7 billion in an all-stock transaction.
  • In July 2025, Alcoa sold its 25.1% ownership interest in the Ma'aden Joint Venture to the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) for approximately $1.35 billion, comprising 86 million Ma'aden shares (valued at $1.2 billion) and $150 million in cash.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for the full year 2024 were $580 million.
  • For the full year 2025, Alcoa's capital expenditures were $618 million, primarily focused on operational efficiency and strategic asset management.
  • Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be $750 million, with a focus on smelter restarts and modernization efforts, including approximately $60 million through 2028 for the anode baking furnace at the Massena smelter.

Better Bets vs. Alcoa (AA)

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AACSTMCENXKALURSMedian
NameAlcoa Constell.Century .Kaiser A.Reliance  
Mkt Price47.4830.2443.03184.74372.4047.48
Mkt Cap12.54.14.33.019.24.3
Rev LTM12,6558,9312,5433,70214,8368,931
Op Inc LTM4846141982451,097484
FCF LTM2871712724612171
FCF 3Y Avg3960-15383753
CFO LTM931504181142918504
CFO 3Y Avg6274311122001,233431

Growth & Margins

AACSTMCENXKALURSMedian
NameAlcoa Constell.Century .Kaiser A.Reliance  
Rev Chg LTM-0.1%20.1%7.5%20.8%8.5%8.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.1%1.2%0.5%4.7%-3.1%1.2%
Rev Chg Q-5.2%24.4%2.4%42.4%15.5%15.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.4%5.7%0.6%9.8%3.8%3.8%
Op Inc Chg LTM-69.1%106.0%32.7%77.0%6.0%32.7%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg122.0%34.3%2,631.6%193.2%-19.8%122.0%
Op Mgn LTM3.8%6.9%7.8%6.6%7.4%6.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.4%5.3%4.7%5.2%8.7%5.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.1%1.2%1.7%1.0%0.4%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM7.4%5.6%7.1%3.8%6.2%6.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.0%5.4%4.7%6.3%8.6%5.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.3%1.9%1.1%0.7%4.1%1.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.0%0.7%-0.1%1.7%5.9%0.7%

Valuation

AACSTMCENXKALURSMedian
NameAlcoa Constell.Century .Kaiser A.Reliance  
Mkt Cap12.54.14.33.019.24.3
P/S1.00.51.70.81.31.0
P/Op Inc25.96.721.512.217.517.5
P/EBIT12.15.912.211.715.712.1
P/E12.19.412.219.623.912.2
P/CFO13.58.123.521.120.920.9
Total Yield9.1%10.6%8.2%5.5%5.2%8.2%
Dividend Yield0.8%0.0%0.0%0.4%1.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.8%1.1%-0.5%3.3%5.0%1.1%
D/E0.20.50.10.40.10.2
Net D/E0.10.40.10.30.10.1

Returns

AACSTMCENXKALURSMedian
NameAlcoa Constell.Century .Kaiser A.Reliance  
1M Rtn-38.9%-12.8%-32.7%0.7%-2.7%-12.8%
3M Rtn-34.0%10.7%-32.2%41.7%21.6%10.7%
6M Rtn-10.4%60.4%9.8%62.5%29.9%29.9%
12M Rtn58.7%118.5%137.7%131.0%17.8%118.5%
3Y Rtn44.9%75.8%393.5%188.6%43.6%75.8%
1M Excs Rtn-37.4%-11.3%-31.1%2.3%-1.2%-11.3%
3M Excs Rtn-42.9%8.4%-41.3%39.4%8.3%8.3%
6M Excs Rtn-19.8%51.6%1.9%50.0%19.7%19.7%
12M Excs Rtn41.8%106.8%118.2%117.1%-0.0%106.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-23.8%12.7%322.3%129.5%-22.1%12.7%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Aluminum8,3797,2466,9408,7628,784
Alumina6,5576,9255,2615,4324,725
Other25313-811
Elimination of intersegment sales-2,130-2,279-1,663-1,735-2,315
Bauxite    947
Total12,83111,89510,55112,45112,152


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Aluminum6,1516,1295,8546,3586,251
Alumina5,6716,1386,1535,8594,385
Cash and cash equivalents1,597 9441,3631,814
Noncurrent marketable securities1,397    
Deferred income taxes687 333296506
Corporate fixed assets, net414 392364374
Other243 371355222
Pension assets131 125146164
Corporate goodwill0 142141140
Elimination of intersegment receivables-162 -159-126-261
Bauxite    1,430
Total16,12912,26714,15514,75615,025


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$47.48 
Market Cap ($ Bil)12.5 
First Trading Date10/07/2014 
Distance from 52W High-43.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$65.48$54.62
DMA Trendupindeterminate
Distance from DMA-27.5%-13.1%
 3M1YR
Volatility57.7%55.8%
Downside Capture415.62224.51
Upside Capture68.27228.35
Correlation (SPY)29.4%40.6%
AA Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.511.681.371.341.781.68
Up Beta-2.05-2.56-0.97-0.370.711.38
Down Beta2.703.363.181.401.731.67
Up Capture-24%129%103%211%456%860%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days6203261131372
Down Capture343%286%301%179%155%111%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days15213164121376

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AA
AA62.7%55.7%1.07-
Sector ETF (XLB)18.0%17.6%0.7847.6%
Equity (SPY)21.8%12.5%1.3040.2%
Gold (GLD)21.7%27.7%0.6940.9%
Commodities (DBC)21.4%18.6%0.9023.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.0%13.7%0.6510.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-45.0%42.6%-1.2828.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AA
AA7.3%56.4%0.34-
Sector ETF (XLB)6.5%19.0%0.2459.9%
Equity (SPY)13.5%17.1%0.6148.6%
Gold (GLD)17.4%18.3%0.7725.9%
Commodities (DBC)6.8%19.5%0.2538.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.8%18.8%0.0535.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)11.9%53.7%0.4125.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AA
AA8.0%55.7%0.37-
Sector ETF (XLB)10.1%20.7%0.4360.7%
Equity (SPY)15.4%18.0%0.7351.1%
Gold (GLD)11.9%16.1%0.6019.1%
Commodities (DBC)5.6%18.0%0.2440.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%20.7%0.2237.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)56.6%66.3%0.9719.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 531202624.1%
Average Daily Volume5.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity264.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares3.1%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 7/1/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/16/2026-6.8%-7.2%-11.2%
1/22/2026-1.5%-4.0%-5.3%
10/22/202512.6%9.1%0.8%
7/16/20252.9%12.4%10.1%
4/16/2025-7.0%5.5%17.3%
1/22/2025-3.7%-9.4%-11.3%
10/16/2024-4.1%-0.5%-1.8%
7/17/2024-3.2%-10.8%-12.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81414
# Negative161010
Median Positive4.9%4.2%15.7%
Median Negative-5.0%-9.8%-10.8%
Max Positive15.2%13.4%31.0%
Max Negative-16.9%-19.5%-28.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/16/2026-6.8%-7.2%-11.2%
1/22/2026-1.5%-4.0%-5.3%
10/22/202512.6%9.1%0.8%
7/16/20252.9%12.4%10.1%
4/16/2025-7.0%5.5%17.3%
1/22/2025-3.7%-9.4%-11.3%
10/16/2024-4.1%-0.5%-1.8%
7/17/2024-3.2%-10.8%-12.5%
4/17/2024-0.2%1.5%12.9%
1/17/2024-1.6%9.5%0.8%
10/18/2023-8.6%-10.1%-1.5%
7/19/2023-6.2%0.0%-16.2%
4/19/2023-2.4%-14.0%-10.4%
1/18/2023-7.4%-2.4%-8.8%
10/19/20223.4%13.4%26.2%
7/20/20220.2%6.0%19.7%
4/20/2022-16.9%-19.5%-28.5%
1/19/20222.7%1.9%28.2%
10/14/202115.2%2.9%7.1%
7/15/2021-4.6%7.8%31.0%
4/15/20218.5%1.1%20.9%
1/20/2021-12.4%-18.3%1.3%
10/14/2020-5.4%2.5%20.2%
7/15/20206.3%3.0%14.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81414
# Negative161010
Median Positive4.9%4.2%15.7%
Median Negative-5.0%-9.8%-10.8%
Max Positive15.2%13.4%31.0%
Max Negative-16.9%-19.5%-28.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/02/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/21/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/25/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/02/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/21/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/25/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K
09/30/202110/28/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202105/05/202110-Q
12/31/202002/25/202110-K
09/30/202010/30/202010-Q
06/30/202007/29/202010-Q
03/31/202004/29/202010-Q
12/31/201902/21/202010-K
09/30/201910/31/201910-Q
06/30/201907/31/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 5/31/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Operational Tax Expense110.00 Mil115.00 Mil120.00 Mil64.3% Higher NewGuidance: 70.00 Mil for Q1 2026
2026 Alumina Segment Production9.70 Mil9.80 Mil9.90 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 9.80 Mil for 2026
2026 Alumina Segment Shipments11.80 Mil11.90 Mil12.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 11.90 Mil for 2026
2026 Aluminum Segment Production2.40 Mil2.50 Mil2.60 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 2.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Aluminum Segment Shipments2.60 Mil2.70 Mil2.80 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 2.70 Mil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Operational tax expense65.00 Mil70.00 Mil75.00 Mil55.6% Higher NewActual: 45.00 Mil for Q4 2025
2026 Alumina segment production9.70 Mil9.80 Mil9.90 Mil2.1% Higher NewActual: 9.60 Mil for 2025
2026 Alumina shipments11.80 Mil11.90 Mil12.00 Mil-9.8% Lower NewActual: 13.20 Mil for 2025
2026 Aluminum segment production2.40 Mil2.50 Mil2.60 Mil4.2% Higher NewActual: 2.40 Mil for 2025
2026 Aluminum shipments2.60 Mil2.70 Mil2.80 Mil5.9% Higher NewActual: 2.55 Mil for 2025
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/1/2026