PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)
Market Price (9/29/2026): $8.87 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)
Market Price (9/29/2026): $8.87Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 125%, Dividend Yield is 37%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 121%, FCF Yield is 157% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 6.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1648% Key risksPAGS key risks include [1] high susceptibility to Brazil's elevated interest rates, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 125%, Dividend Yield is 37%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 121%, FCF Yield is 157% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 6.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1648% |
| Key risksPAGS key risks include [1] high susceptibility to Brazil's elevated interest rates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance, with an EPS Beat Offset by a Revenue Miss.
PagSeguro Digital reported non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.41 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending in June 2026), surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.39 by $0.02. This represented a 9.7% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP diluted EPS. However, the company's quarterly revenue of $942.97 million (R$3.4 billion excluding interchange fees) fell below analyst expectations of $1 billion. Despite the revenue miss, gross profit increased by 2.8% year-over-year to R$2.0 billion, and the company reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance for credit portfolio growth (25% year-over-year), gross profit growth (6-9%), and EPS growth (9-13%).
2. Robust Growth in Banking and Credit Businesses Balanced by Lower Total Payment Volume Expansion.
The company demonstrated strong expansion in its banking and credit segments, which provided support for the stock. Banking revenue increased by 28.9% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by a 30.7% year-over-year expansion in its credit portfolio to R$5.1 billion, and a 15.1% increase in total deposits to R$43 billion. Cash-in volumes (excluding acquiring-related inflows) also grew by 23% year-over-year, reaching nearly R$100 billion. Conversely, Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth remained modest at 3.0% year-over-year, reaching R$133.4 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, which was noted by some analysts as relatively low. The growth in banking and credit helped to offset these concerns regarding the core payments business.
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PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance, with an EPS Beat Offset by a Revenue Miss.
PagSeguro Digital reported non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.41 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending in June 2026), surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.39 by $0.02. This represented a 9.7% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP diluted EPS. However, the company's quarterly revenue of $942.97 million (R$3.4 billion excluding interchange fees) fell below analyst expectations of $1 billion. Despite the revenue miss, gross profit increased by 2.8% year-over-year to R$2.0 billion, and the company reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance for credit portfolio growth (25% year-over-year), gross profit growth (6-9%), and EPS growth (9-13%).
2. Robust Growth in Banking and Credit Businesses Balanced by Lower Total Payment Volume Expansion.
The company demonstrated strong expansion in its banking and credit segments, which provided support for the stock. Banking revenue increased by 28.9% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by a 30.7% year-over-year expansion in its credit portfolio to R$5.1 billion, and a 15.1% increase in total deposits to R$43 billion. Cash-in volumes (excluding acquiring-related inflows) also grew by 23% year-over-year, reaching nearly R$100 billion. Conversely, Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth remained modest at 3.0% year-over-year, reaching R$133.4 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, which was noted by some analysts as relatively low. The growth in banking and credit helped to offset these concerns regarding the core payments business.
3. Consistent Shareholder Returns and Capital Optimization Initiatives.
PagSeguro Digital's commitment to shareholder returns contributed to investor confidence. The company announced an increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.28 per share, translating to an annualized dividend of $1.12. An upcoming dividend of $0.28 per share is payable on September 30, 2026. Over the last twelve months, R$2.0 billion was returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The increase in non-GAAP diluted EPS in fiscal Q2 2026 was partially supported by a reduction in average shares outstanding due to the ongoing share buyback program. The company also provided guidance for distributing at least BRL 1.0 billion in dividends annually for 2027 and 2028.
4. Persistent Macroeconomic Headwinds in Brazil from High Interest Rates and Economic Slowdown.
The broader Brazilian macroeconomic environment presented a challenging backdrop for financial technology companies during this period. Brazil's central bank, which began a monetary tightening cycle in late 2024, maintained high interest rates. While the Selic rate was reduced by a cumulative 125 basis points to 13.75% since March 2026, real interest rates remained elevated. These high rates resulted in increased funding costs for PagSeguro Digital. Furthermore, the Brazilian economy experienced a slowdown in fiscal Q2 2026, with the government lowering its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3% previously estimated in July, and the central bank revising its 2026 growth call to 1.8% from 2% in June. This economic deceleration, affecting domestic demand and credit-financed consumption, created a cautious operating environment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.0% change in PAGS stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.08 | 8.90 | -2.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,566 | 20,588 | 0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.4% | 10.4% | 0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 1.2 | 1.1 | -3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 277 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAGS | -2.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.5% | 31.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.0% | 15.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.5% change in PAGS stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.06 | 8.90 | -11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,129 | 20,588 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.0% | 10.4% | -5.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 1.3 | 1.1 | -13.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 292 | 277 | 5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAGS | -11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.2% | 42.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 40.5% | 27.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.2% change in PAGS stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.30 | 8.90 | 7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,855 | 20,588 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.0% | 10.4% | -5.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 298 | 277 | 7.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAGS | 7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.0% | 44.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 49.0% | 32.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.2% change in PAGS stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.07 | 8.90 | 10.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,573 | 20,588 | 32.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.9% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 1.7 | 1.1 | -32.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 324 | 277 | 16.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAGS | 10.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.5% | 41.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 125.9% | 34.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAGS Return | -54% | -67% | 43% | -50% | 61% | 0% | -82% |
| Peers Return | -24% | -51% | 56% | -4% | 33% | -12% | -35% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAGS Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 40% | 62% | 42% | 57% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAGS Max Drawdown | -61% | -73% | -44% | -58% | -21% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -64% | -32% | -39% | -33% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: STNE, MELI, NU, DLO, PYPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -59.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 105 days |
In The Past
PagSeguro Digital's stock fell -12.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 14.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PAGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -59.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 105 days |
In The Past
PagSeguro Digital's stock fell -12.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 14.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) is a Brazilian financial technology (fintech) company providing a comprehensive suite of digital financial solutions and services. Operating primarily in Brazil but also internationally, the company targets a wide array of customers including individual consumers, entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small to medium-sized businesses (SMEs). Its mission is to address the everyday financial needs of these diverse clients through an integrated and accessible digital ecosystem.
Central to PagSeguro's offering is its "PagSeguro Ecosystem," a closed-loop digital platform where clients can manage funds, receive payments, and facilitate business operations. A key component of this ecosystem is the "PagBank" digital account, available via a mobile app, which consolidates various banking services, cash-in and cash-out options, and other financial functionalities. The company also provides a range of payment tools for both online and in-person transactions, alongside issuing prepaid, credit, and cash cards.
In addition to core banking and payment services, PagSeguro offers crucial value-added features such as purchase protection mechanisms, an antifraud platform, and comprehensive account and business management tools. For medium-sized and larger merchants, its "PlugPag" solution allows direct connection of Point-of-Sale (POS) devices to their enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. The company further expands its services into peer-to-peer lending, online gaming, cross-border digital services, and provides essential back-office support including sales reconciliation and payment gateway solutions.
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PagSeguro Digital is like a **Square for Brazil**.
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- PagSeguro Ecosystem: A comprehensive digital ecosystem enabling clients to manage financial needs, receive/spend funds, and grow their businesses.
- PagBank Digital Account: A mobile-first banking service offering various cash-in/out options and functionalities through the PagBank app.
- PlugPag: A tool for medium to large merchants to integrate POS devices directly with their ERP or sales automation systems via Bluetooth.
- Payment Processing & Tools: Provides online and in-person payment tools, cash-in solutions, and credit card capture services.
- Digital Cards: Issues prepaid, credit, and cash cards for various transaction types.
- Value-Added Services: Includes features like purchase protection mechanisms, an antifraud platform, and account/business management tools.
- Peer-to-Peer Lending Platform: An online platform that facilitates direct lending between individuals.
- Back-office Solutions: Offers services such as sales reconciliation and payment gateway solutions for businesses.
- Online Gaming & Cross-Border Digital Services: Specific digital services tailored for online gaming and international transactions.
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PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) sells primarily to categories of customers rather than specific large companies. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Consumers: Individuals who use PagBank for their day-to-day financial needs, including banking services, receiving and spending funds, issuing prepaid, credit, and cash cards, and engaging in peer-to-peer lending.
- Individual Entrepreneurs and Micro-Merchants: Very small businesses, freelancers, and self-employed individuals who utilize PagSeguro's online and in-person payment tools, POS devices, and business management functionalities to process transactions and manage their operations.
- Small and Medium-Sized Companies: Businesses that require more comprehensive financial technology solutions, including advanced POS device integration (like PlugPag for connecting to ERP/sales automation systems), payment processing, and back-office solutions.
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Carlos Mauad, Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad was appointed Chief Executive Officer of PagSeguro Digital, effective January 1, 2026. He previously served as Chief Operating Officer since September 2024. Mr. Mauad brings over 14 years of experience in the financial and banking sectors, having held CEO positions at Banco Carrefour and MagaluBank. His career also includes experience at Citi and Smiles. He holds a degree in Mechatronics Engineering with a postgraduate degree in Engineering and Mechanical Sciences from UFSC and an MBA from IBMEC.
Gustavo Bahia Gama Sechin, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Gustavo Bahia Gama Sechin was appointed Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer of PagSeguro Digital, effective January 1, 2026. He served as Investor Relations Director since August 2024. Mr. Sechin has over 25 years of experience in the banking sector, including roles as CFO of subsidiaries at Santander Brasil and CFO and CRO at Getnet. He has also worked at ABN Amro Bank and Votorantim Corretora, and led a proprietary M&A team in Brazil. Gustavo holds an MBA in Finance from FGV.
Ricardo Dutra da Silva, Principal Executive Officer and CEO of UOL Group
Ricardo Dutra da Silva serves as the Principal Executive Officer of PagSeguro Digital Ltd. and has been the CEO of UOL Group, the controlling group of PagSeguro Digital, since October 2022. He previously held the role of Chief Executive Officer of PagSeguro Digital Ltd. from February 2016 until October 2022. Mr. Dutra worked for the UOL Group from 1997 to 2005 in various management positions, rejoining in 2009 as Country Manager at UOL Argentina until 2010. He also worked as a management consultant at Bain & Company from 2007 to 2009. He holds a bachelor's degree in electrical/industrial engineering from FEI, a postgraduate degree in business from FGV, and an MBA from the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of Virginia.
Eduardo Alcaro, Vice-Chairman of the Board
Eduardo Alcaro is the Vice-Chairman of PagSeguro Digital and also serves as the Chief Financial Officer of UOL Edtech. He has been a member of PagSeguro's board of directors since 2017. Mr. Alcaro previously served as the Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer and Chief Accounting Officer of PagSeguro Digital from 2011 until 2021, and as the Chief Financial Officer of the UOL group during the same period. His earlier experience includes various financial management and mergers & acquisitions roles at Walmart in both Brazil and the USA. He holds a bachelor's degree in business administration from Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV-SP).
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Key Risks to PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)
The primary risks to PagSeguro Digital's business stem from its exposure to the Brazilian economy, the highly competitive fintech landscape, and the inherent risks associated with its expanding credit operations.
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Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Sensitivity in Brazil
PagSeguro's financial performance is significantly influenced by Brazil's macroeconomic environment, particularly the country's high interest rates, such as the SELIC rate. Elevated interest rates increase the company's funding costs, which can lead to higher prices for its services and potentially result in merchant churn, especially among small and medium-sized businesses which form a substantial part of its customer base. Additionally, broader economic challenges in Brazil, such as a tight labor market or weakness in consumer spending, can directly impact transaction volumes and overall revenue for PagSeguro.
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Intense Competition
PagSeguro operates in a fiercely competitive Brazilian fintech market, facing pressure from both established financial institutions and a growing number of emerging fintech companies. This intense competition can lead to margin pressures, necessitate continuous investment in product innovation, and demand aggressive strategies to attract and retain customers in both its digital payments and banking segments.
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Credit Risk from Expanding Lending Operations
PagSeguro's strategy increasingly relies on its credit offerings, including peer-to-peer lending and other credit products, to drive growth. Rapid expansion of its credit portfolio, particularly with what some sources describe as relatively inexperienced credit operations, introduces significant credit risk. This could manifest as higher default rates, increased provisions for doubtful accounts, and potential losses if risk management systems prove insufficient.
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The widespread adoption of Pix, Brazil's instant payment system launched by the Central Bank of Brazil. This system offers instant, free (for individuals) or low-cost (for businesses) transfers and payments, directly competing with and potentially eroding the transaction fee revenues PagSeguro derives from its traditional payment processing and digital banking services. Pix provides a highly efficient, government-backed alternative for both consumers and merchants, potentially reducing the reliance on PagSeguro's proprietary payment ecosystem for certain transactions.
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Addressable Markets for PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. operates primarily in Brazil, offering a comprehensive suite of financial technology solutions and services. The addressable markets for its main products and services within Brazil are substantial:
- Fintech Market (Brazil): The Brazil fintech market was valued at approximately USD 5.75 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 33.58 billion by 2035, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 19.30% from 2026 to 2035. Another estimate places the market size at USD 5.5 billion in 2025, growing to USD 19.1 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 14.92% from 2026-2034.
- Digital Payments Market (Brazil): The Brazil mobile payment market size reached USD 67.0 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 244.8 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 15.49% during 2026-2034. The broader Brazil Digital Payment Market was valued at USD 9,946.40 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 35,684.93 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 33.64% from 2025 to 2032. This figure may represent transactional volume rather than market revenue. The digital payment solutions market in Brazil is projected to grow significantly, with transaction volumes expected to reach USD 200 billion in the future.
- Digital Banking Market (Brazil): The Brazil digital banking market was valued at USD 2.5 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 4.8 billion by 2034, showing a CAGR of 7.51% during the period of 2026-2034. Another report states the Brazil Digital Banking and APIs Market is valued at USD 15 billion, based on a five-year historical analysis.
- POS (Point-of-Sale) Terminal Market (Brazil): The Brazil POS terminal market size is estimated at USD 6.45 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 8.68 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.12% during the forecast period (2025-2030).
- Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Lending Market (Brazil): The Brazil peer-to-peer lending market size reached USD 6.1 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to grow to USD 31.6 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 20.14% from 2026 to 2034. The Brazil FinTech Online Lending & Credit Platforms Market is valued at approximately USD 10 billion.
- Prepaid Card and Digital Wallet Market (Brazil): Brazil's prepaid card and digital wallet market is predicted to reach USD 53.42 billion by 2030, growing at an 11.1% CAGR between 2025 and 2029.
- Online Gaming Market (Brazil): Brazil's online gaming market size was valued at USD 3.46 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 7.01 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.17% from 2026-2034. The online gambling market alone is projected to reach USD 3.7 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) by the end of 2025 and rise to USD 5.8 billion by 2027.
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PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Expansion of Banking and Credit Offerings: PagSeguro's banking segment, PagBank, and its credit portfolio are significant growth engines. The company reported an impressive 51% increase in banking revenues in Q4 2025, and management projects a robust 25-35% credit portfolio growth in 2026. This expansion includes core segments like loans, credit cards, and working capital solutions, and is expected to reach BRL 25 billion by the end of 2029. The integration of payments and banking services, along with the launch of new products such as working capital loans for merchants, is contributing to this growth.
- Growth in Total Payment Volume (TPV) and Client Base: PagSeguro continues to expand its Total Payment Volume (TPV) and client base, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses in Brazil. The company reported a TPV of BRL 124 billion in Q2 2024, marking a 34.2% year-over-year increase, significantly outpacing the broader card industry's growth rate. PagSeguro also successfully added 1.5 million new clients in Q2 2025, expanding its total client base to 33.1 million.
- Successful Implementation of Repricing Strategies: The company has been executing repricing strategies for its acquiring products to enhance profitability and offset higher financial costs. These initiatives, which began rolling out in Q4 2024, have been instrumental in securing a more sustainable revenue base. This strategy has led to revenue growth outpacing TPV, indicating its effectiveness in boosting profitability.
- Increased Monetization and Engagement within the Ecosystem: PagSeguro is focused on stronger engagement and higher monetization from its existing client base. This involves generating more revenue from deposit volumes and increasing fee generation, particularly from card usage and various account-related services offered through its digital ecosystem. This strategy aims to maximize the value extracted from each customer by offering a broader range of financial services within its closed-loop ecosystem.
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Share Repurchases
- PagSeguro Digital's board of directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to US$200 million in outstanding Class A common shares on August 29, 2024, with no fixed expiration date.
- Under a buyback program announced on May 29, 2025, the company repurchased 17,922,208 shares for $165.49 million by December 31, 2025.
- Management executed buybacks of over 27 million shares in 2025. The company is planning major buybacks for 2026.
Share Issuance
- PagSeguro Digital has shown a decrease in shares outstanding by -6.77% in one year, indicating net repurchases rather than issuances.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures (CapEx) for 2025 were BRL 2.3 billion.
- The guidance for CapEx in 2026 is BRL 1.8–2.0 billion. An updated guidance forecasts 2026 CAPEX estimates to be between BRL 2.2 billion and BRL 2.3 billion.
- The company's expansion into digital banking, including PagBank, suggests a primary focus for capital expenditures to support its end-to-end digital ecosystem.
Peer Outperformance in Systems Software
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | PagSeguro Digital | 9.9% | 1.1x | -4.3% | 15.0% | -80.9% | — |
| QLYS | Qualys | 10.3% | 29.4x | 27.2% | 13.9% | 56.7% | +138pp |
| TWLO | Twilio | 11.3% | 38.2x | 180.4% | 390.3% | -8.3% | +73pp |
| BB | BlackBerry | 7.5% | 97.4x | 77.4% | 86.8% | -8.3% | +73pp |
| GEN | Gen Digital | 12.8% | 11.9x | -26.2% | 25.1% | -9.5% | +71pp |
| VRNS | Varonis Systems | 12.2% | -38.9x | -19.5% | 56.9% | -22.0% | +59pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 9 | 68.1% | 185.0% | 297.2% | TTMI 879% · FLEX 755% · JBL 466% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 27 | 95.8% | 95.0% | 119.5% | AXTI 830% · AEHR 612% · KLAC 492% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 38.3% | 84.0% | 101.5% | CLMB 413% · AVT 206% · SNX 155% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 14.7% | 74.6% | 70.6% | AAOI 1275% · LITE 997% · FEIM 904% |
| Electronic Components | 26 | 44.7% | 67.8% | 69.1% | CLS 3861% · BELFA 1314% · APH 375% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 36.0% | POET 1719% · MU 1409% · NVDA 1020% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 20 | 18.2% | 128.9% | 35.6% | STX 1178% · SMCI 1038% · DELL 1027% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 1.7% | 42.1% | 24.6% | DOCN 75% · VRSN 40% · GDDY 34% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 26 | -18.3% | 15.0% | -8.6% | PI 210% · KEYS 116% · ACFN 105% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -25.3% | -18.6% | -30.5% | CHRN 521347% · APLD 1079% · TSSI 784% |
| Application Software | 125 | -31.6% | -20.3% | -46.9% | VIDA 136567% · PLTR 665% · RDVT 194% |
| Systems Software ← | 74 | -19.5% | 5.2% | -58.8% | QNC 856% · ZETA 434% · PANW 397% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| PAGS Stock Surges 20% With A 8-day Winning Spree On UBS Price Target Hike | 01/30/2026 | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | 06/19/2024 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 25.7 |
| Rev LTM | 17,219 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,282 |
| FCF LTM | 3,728 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 988 |
| CFO LTM | 5,377 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,225 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 27.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 27.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $8.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/24/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $9.06 | $9.38 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -1.7% | -5.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.7% | 43.1% |
| Downside Capture | 130.47 | 183.64 |
| Upside Capture | 113.31 | 146.31 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.5% | 46.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.35 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 1.31 | 1.51 | 1.23 |
| Up Beta | -1.13 | -0.06 | 0.34 | 1.10 | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| Down Beta | 2.22 | 1.35 | 1.27 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 0.89 |
| Up Capture | 28% | 77% | 49% | 90% | 153% | 213% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 26 | 59 | 122 | 366 |
| Down Capture | 223% | 103% | 76% | 144% | 134% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 24 | 35 | 64 | 120 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | -4.4% | 43.0% | 0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 40.7% | 26.5% | 1.25 | 35.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.4% | 13.0% | 0.96 | 46.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 9.7% | 29.6% | 0.31 | 31.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.7% | 20.7% | 1.60 | -4.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.3% | 13.6% | 0.06 | 21.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.0% | 44.8% | -0.46 | 30.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | -29.2% | 61.1% | -0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.5% | 25.9% | 0.73 | 39.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 44.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.1% | 18.9% | 0.77 | 8.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.5% | 0.44 | 7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.4% | 52.4% | 0.45 | 24.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | -10.3% | 60.3% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.7% | 25.0% | 0.89 | 47.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 50.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 39.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.8% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 20.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 04/29/2026 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/13/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 04/29/2025 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/20/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/29/2024 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/17/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 04/28/2023 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 6-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 04/29/2026 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/13/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 04/29/2025 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/20/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/29/2024 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/17/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 04/28/2023 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 06/08/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 05/02/2022 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 06/02/2021 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 04/27/2021 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/18/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/27/2020 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/28/2020 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 04/22/2020 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/19/2019 | 6-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/23/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7232026 | 9.27 | 25,000 | Form | ||
| 2 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7232026 | 9.24 | 25,000 | 231,000 | 231,000 | Form |
| 3 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7162026 | 9.17 | 25,000 | 229,250 | 458,500 | Form |
| 4 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7162026 | 9.22 | 24,160 | 222,755 | 691,500 | Form |
| 5 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7162026 | 9.25 | 25,000 | 231,250 | 917,230 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7232026 | 9.27 | 25,000 | Form | ||
| 2 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7232026 | 9.24 | 25,000 | 231,000 | 231,000 | Form |
| 3 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7162026 | 9.17 | 25,000 | 229,250 | 458,500 | Form |
| 4 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7162026 | 9.22 | 24,160 | 222,755 | 691,500 | Form |
| 5 | Dutra, Da Silva Ricardo | Principal Executive Officer | Corporation | Sell | 7162026 | 9.25 | 25,000 | 231,250 | 917,230 | Form |
| 6 | Magnani, Alexandre MR | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 11.26 | 200,000 | 2,252,000 | 6,839,211 | Form | |
| 7 | Frias, Luis | Corporation | Buy | 3312026 | 9.96 | 498,500 | 4,967,552 | 26,642,474 | Form |
PagSeguro Digital — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Systems Software Resources |
| CNET |
| ZDNet |
| Gartner |
| Software Development Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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