Tearsheet

Twilio (TWLO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $140.09 | Market Cap: $21.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Twilio (TWLO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $140.09
Market Cap: $21.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 120x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 228x
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.1%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more.
Key risks
TWLO key risks include [1] significant profitability and margin pressures in its core messaging business, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.1%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 120x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 228x
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
5 Key risks
TWLO key risks include [1] significant profitability and margin pressures in its core messaging business, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TWLO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Exceeding Expectations and Raised Guidance: Twilio reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations with an earnings per share of $1.25 against a forecast of $1.08, and revenue of $1.3 billion, exceeding the anticipated $1.25 billion. This performance marked a significant achievement and led the company to raise its full-year 2025 guidance for reported revenue growth, organic revenue growth, non-GAAP income from operations, and free cash flow.

2. Significant Improvement in Profitability and Free Cash Flow: The company demonstrated improved financial health by achieving GAAP net income of $40.9 million, a turnaround from a loss in the prior year, and record non-GAAP income from operations of $235 million. Twilio also generated strong free cash flow, with $248 million in Q3 2025, and raised its full-year 2025 free cash flow target to between $920 million and $930 million.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TWLO Return244%-22%-81%55%42%27%40%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TWLO Win Rate67%33%17%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TWLO Max Drawdown-27%-27%-84%-6%-30%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDB, VRSN, OKTA, AKAM, AGPU. See TWLO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTWLOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven937.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven52 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven182 days120 days

Compare to MDB, VRSN, OKTA, AKAM, AGPU


In The Past

Twilio's stock fell -90.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/18/2021. A -90.4% loss requires a 937.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Twilio (TWLO)

Better Bets than Twilio (TWLO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TWLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Twilio

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TWLOMDBVRSNOKTAAKAMAGPUMedian
NameTwilio MongoDB VeriSign Okta Akamai T.Axe Comp. 
Mkt Price139.22412.35243.1288.4287.555.39113.82
Mkt Cap21.333.622.716.212.6-21.3
Rev LTM4,8962,3171,6272,8404,13322,579
Op Inc LTM128-1561,100122637-11125
FCF LTM7833461,005895718-11751
FCF 3Y Avg545194892634740-12590
CFO LTM8403761,0339121,496-11876
CFO 3Y Avg6012089256551,454-12628

Growth & Margins

TWLOMDBVRSNOKTAAKAMAGPUMedian
NameTwilio MongoDB VeriSign Okta Akamai T.Axe Comp. 
Rev Chg LTM12.8%20.9%5.5%12.1%4.2%-5.9%8.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.4%25.0%5.2%18.1%4.8%4.9%7.8%
Rev Chg Q14.7%18.7%7.3%11.6%5.0%384.3%13.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.5%4.5%1.8%2.8%1.2%310.5%3.2%
Op Mgn LTM2.6%-6.7%67.6%4.3%15.4%-673.7%3.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-4.5%-11.9%67.5%-8.8%16.8%-814.1%-6.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%0.7%-0.3%1.3%0.0%2,164.9%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM17.2%16.2%63.5%32.1%36.2%-675.9%24.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.2%10.0%59.6%25.5%36.8%-726.7%19.3%
FCF/Rev LTM16.0%14.9%61.8%31.5%17.4%-676.8%16.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.9%9.4%57.4%24.6%18.7%-743.6%15.3%

Valuation

TWLOMDBVRSNOKTAAKAMAGPUMedian
NameTwilio MongoDB VeriSign Okta Akamai T.Axe Comp. 
Mkt Cap21.333.622.716.212.6-21.3
P/S3.114.516.05.72.6-5.7
P/EBIT119.7-508.823.2-15.8-19.5
P/E228.0-473.732.283.021.5-32.2
P/CFO18.289.325.317.77.3-18.2
Total Yield0.4%-0.2%3.4%1.2%4.7%-1.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.4%0.8%4.1%-5.4%-4.3%
D/E0.10.00.1-0.5-0.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.10.0-0.4--0.0

Returns

TWLOMDBVRSNOKTAAKAMAGPUMedian
NameTwilio MongoDB VeriSign Okta Akamai T.Axe Comp. 
1M Rtn15.8%21.4%-2.8%9.1%-0.1%-9.1%
3M Rtn34.5%30.7%-15.3%-1.8%15.4%-15.4%
6M Rtn19.3%102.0%-13.0%-10.7%11.2%-11.2%
12M Rtn26.8%55.5%25.6%3.5%-10.1%-25.6%
3Y Rtn190.5%103.0%22.2%30.2%3.0%-30.2%
1M Excs Rtn15.1%20.7%-3.6%8.3%-0.8%-8.3%
3M Excs Rtn27.1%29.0%-16.0%-6.9%12.2%-12.2%
6M Excs Rtn6.9%89.6%-25.4%-23.1%-1.1%--1.1%
12M Excs Rtn12.1%43.3%13.2%-3.2%-22.9%-12.1%
3Y Excs Rtn120.4%34.5%-45.6%-39.3%-71.8%--39.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Twilio Communications (Communications)3,8593,5502,411  
Twilio Segment (Segment)295276   
Other  105  
Software  326  
Single segment   1,7621,134
Total4,1543,8262,8421,7621,134


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Twilio Communications (Communications)842    
Acquisition and divestiture related expenses-6    
Payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation-13    
Charitable contributions-17    
Loss on net assets divested-32    
Twilio Segment (Segment)-72    
Restructuring costs-166    
Amortization of acquired intangibles-192    
Corporate costs not allocated to segments-237    
Impairment of long-lived assets-321    
Stock-based compensation-663    
Total-877    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,449,028
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.6%
Average Daily Volume1,952,172
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.79
Basic Shares Quantity153,119,639
Short % of Basic Shares3.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/202519.5%13.0%15.0%
8/7/2025-19.4%-17.6%-10.9%
5/1/20252.3%7.5%22.2%
1/23/202520.1%30.8%4.1%
10/30/202414.3%28.0%48.1%
8/1/202411.7%7.7%11.5%
5/7/2024-7.5%-1.8%-9.5%
2/14/2024-15.4%-21.8%-17.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11910
# Negative131514
Median Positive7.7%13.0%14.7%
Median Negative-9.4%-11.7%-14.3%
Max Positive39.6%53.1%60.7%
Max Negative-34.6%-22.4%-34.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021