Twilio (TWLO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $140.09 | Market Cap: $21.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Twilio (TWLO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $140.09Market Cap: $21.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 120x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 228x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. | Key risksTWLO key risks include [1] significant profitability and margin pressures in its core messaging business, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 120x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 228x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Key risksTWLO key risks include [1] significant profitability and margin pressures in its core messaging business, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TWLO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Exceeding Expectations and Raised Guidance: Twilio reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations with an earnings per share of $1.25 against a forecast of $1.08, and revenue of $1.3 billion, exceeding the anticipated $1.25 billion. This performance marked a significant achievement and led the company to raise its full-year 2025 guidance for reported revenue growth, organic revenue growth, non-GAAP income from operations, and free cash flow.
2. Significant Improvement in Profitability and Free Cash Flow: The company demonstrated improved financial health by achieving GAAP net income of $40.9 million, a turnaround from a loss in the prior year, and record non-GAAP income from operations of $235 million. Twilio also generated strong free cash flow, with $248 million in Q3 2025, and raised its full-year 2025 free cash flow target to between $920 million and $930 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TWLO Return | 244% | -22% | -81% | 55% | 42% | 27% | 40% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TWLO Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 17% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TWLO Max Drawdown | -27% | -27% | -84% | -6% | -30% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDB, VRSN, OKTA, AKAM, AGPU. See TWLO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TWLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 937.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 120 days |
Compare to MDB, VRSN, OKTA, AKAM, AGPU
In The Past
Twilio's stock fell -90.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/18/2021. A -90.4% loss requires a 937.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TWLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Twilio
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 113.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,579 |
| Op Inc LTM | 125 |
| FCF LTM | 751 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 590 |
| CFO LTM | 876 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 628 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| P/S | 5.7 |
| P/EBIT | 19.5 |
| P/E | 32.2 |
| P/CFO | 18.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 30.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -39.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio Communications (Communications) | 3,859 | 3,550 | 2,411 | ||
| Twilio Segment (Segment) | 295 | 276 | |||
| Other | 105 | ||||
| Software | 326 | ||||
| Single segment | 1,762 | 1,134 | |||
| Total | 4,154 | 3,826 | 2,842 | 1,762 | 1,134 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio Communications (Communications) | 842 | ||||
| Acquisition and divestiture related expenses | -6 | ||||
| Payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation | -13 | ||||
| Charitable contributions | -17 | ||||
| Loss on net assets divested | -32 | ||||
| Twilio Segment (Segment) | -72 | ||||
| Restructuring costs | -166 | ||||
| Amortization of acquired intangibles | -192 | ||||
| Corporate costs not allocated to segments | -237 | ||||
| Impairment of long-lived assets | -321 | ||||
| Stock-based compensation | -663 | ||||
| Total | -877 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 15.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -19.4% | -17.6% | -10.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.3% | 7.5% | 22.2% |
| 1/23/2025 | 20.1% | 30.8% | 4.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | 14.3% | 28.0% | 48.1% |
| 8/1/2024 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 11.5% |
| 5/7/2024 | -7.5% | -1.8% | -9.5% |
| 2/14/2024 | -15.4% | -21.8% | -17.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 7.7% | 13.0% | 14.7% |
| Median Negative | -9.4% | -11.7% | -14.3% |
| Max Positive | 39.6% | 53.1% | 60.7% |
| Max Negative | -34.6% | -22.4% | -34.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |