Twilio (TWLO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $127.01 | Market Cap: $19.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Twilio (TWLO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $127.01Market Cap: $19.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 120x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 228x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 120x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 228x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TWLO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Following a strong outlook and growing demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) tools, Twilio's stock experienced a significant surge. Here are five key points explaining this movement:
1. Strong Financial Outlook and Guidance
Twilio provided an upbeat forecast at an investor event, projecting double-digit revenue growth and indicating that fourth-quarter revenue surpassed analysts' estimates with an 11% year-over-year increase. The company also set targets for GAAP operating profitability in fiscal year 2025 and beyond, alongside a goal of generating $3 billion or more in free cash flow from 2025 through 2027.
2. Booming Demand for AI Tools
A significant driver for the stock's performance was the escalating demand for Twilio's AI solutions. The company reported that over 9,000 firms in the artificial intelligence sector utilized its services in 2024, highlighting strong market adoption and future growth potential in AI-powered communications.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TWLO Return | 244% | -22% | -81% | 55% | 42% | 20% | 32% |
| Peers Return | 65% | 13% | -36% | 36% | -15% | 18% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TWLO Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 17% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 53% | 27% | 47% | 38% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TWLO Max Drawdown | -27% | -27% | -84% | -6% | -30% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -16% | -45% | -8% | -23% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDB, VRSN, OKTA, AKAM, CHOW. See TWLO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TWLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 937.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 120 days |
Compare to MDB, VRSN, OKTA, AKAM, CHOW
In The Past
Twilio's stock fell -90.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/18/2021. A -90.4% loss requires a 937.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TWLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Twilio
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 108.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,763 |
| Op Inc LTM | 128 |
| FCF LTM | 783 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 565 |
| CFO LTM | 853 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 601 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.6 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| P/EBIT | 23.2 |
| P/E | 32.2 |
| P/CFO | 20.6 |
| Total Yield | 1.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio Communications (Communications) | 3,859 | 3,550 | 2,411 | ||
| Twilio Segment (Segment) | 295 | 276 | |||
| Other | 105 | ||||
| Software | 326 | ||||
| Single segment | 1,762 | 1,134 | |||
| Total | 4,154 | 3,826 | 2,842 | 1,762 | 1,134 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio Communications (Communications) | 842 | ||||
| Acquisition and divestiture related expenses | -6 | ||||
| Payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation | -13 | ||||
| Charitable contributions | -17 | ||||
| Loss on net assets divested | -32 | ||||
| Twilio Segment (Segment) | -72 | ||||
| Restructuring costs | -166 | ||||
| Amortization of acquired intangibles | -192 | ||||
| Corporate costs not allocated to segments | -237 | ||||
| Impairment of long-lived assets | -321 | ||||
| Stock-based compensation | -663 | ||||
| Total | -877 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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