Tearsheet

PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.355 | Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.355
Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 83%, Dividend Yield is 6.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58%
Key risks
PAGS key risks include [1] high susceptibility to Brazil's elevated interest rates, Show more.
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 5.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 83%, Dividend Yield is 6.7%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 5.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58%
5 Key risks
PAGS key risks include [1] high susceptibility to Brazil's elevated interest rates, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PAGS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) experienced a stock movement around 5.6% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors:

1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: On November 12, 2025, PagSeguro Digital reported its Q3 2025 earnings, which showed a mixed performance. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36 exceeded analysts' consensus estimate of $0.35. However, quarterly revenue reached $937.15 million, falling short of the analysts' expectation of $971.30 million. This combination of an EPS beat and a revenue miss led to a 5.44% drop in the company's stock during after-hours trading on November 25, 2025.

2. Downward Revision of Gross Profit Growth Guidance: Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, PagSeguro Digital revised its gross profit growth guidance downwards. The company adjusted its forecast to 5%-7% from a previous range of 7%-11%, indicating a more cautious outlook on future profitability.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PAGS Return67%-54%-67%43%-50%62%-70%
Peers Return-41%60%14%12%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PAGS Win Rate58%42%42%50%33%58% 
Peers Win Rate42%63%48%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PAGS Max Drawdown-56%-58%-71%-19%-50%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-12%-16%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STNE, MELI, NU, PYPL, FISV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPAGSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-88.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven778.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven148.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-55.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven123.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven193 days120 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, CHOW, NTSK


In The Past

PagSeguro Digital's stock fell -88.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -88.6% loss requires a 778.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)

Better Bets than PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Fundamental Metrics: ... 
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0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PAGS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PagSeguro Digital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PAGSSTNEMELINUPYPLFISVMedian
NamePagSegur.StoneCo MercadoL.Nu PayPal Fiserv  
Mkt Price9.3414.401,916.2815.8660.1868.3338.02
Mkt Cap2.93.897.277.557.236.947.0
Rev LTM19,52114,53326,1939,60032,86221,16020,340
Op Inc LTM7,0656,9793,132-6,2966,0786,296
FCF LTM2,803-1,5378,6103,6665,5654,6194,142
FCF 3Y Avg600-1,7276,3701,9685,2654,3123,140
CFO LTM5,034-3349,8314,0406,4266,3395,686
CFO 3Y Avg2,726-5557,1692,1885,9725,8484,287

Growth & Margins

PAGSSTNEMELINUPYPLFISVMedian
NamePagSegur.StoneCo MercadoL.Nu PayPal Fiserv  
Rev Chg LTM10.9%23.5%36.9%22.3%4.5%5.2%16.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.6%21.3%39.5%62.1%6.7%6.8%16.0%
Rev Chg Q4.5%16.0%39.5%30.2%7.3%0.9%11.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%3.3%8.7%7.1%1.8%0.2%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM36.2%48.0%12.0%-19.2%28.7%28.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg34.5%48.3%13.1%-17.9%27.0%27.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.6%0.4%-0.3%-0.1%-1.3%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM25.8%-2.3%37.5%42.1%19.6%30.0%27.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.6%-4.0%35.9%21.7%19.0%29.1%20.3%
FCF/Rev LTM14.4%-10.6%32.9%38.2%16.9%21.8%19.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.4%-13.5%32.1%18.7%16.8%21.5%17.7%

Valuation

PAGSSTNEMELINUPYPLFISVMedian
NamePagSegur.StoneCo MercadoL.Nu PayPal Fiserv  
Mkt Cap2.93.897.277.557.236.947.0
P/S0.10.34.58.11.91.71.8
P/EBIT-4.839.8-9.86.28.0
P/E1.3-4.657.030.613.010.211.6
P/CFO0.6-15.012.119.29.95.87.9
Total Yield82.6%-22.0%1.8%3.3%7.7%9.8%5.5%
Dividend Yield6.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--46.6%6.7%-7.5%5.5%6.1%
D/E-3.20.1-0.20.80.5
Net D/E-1.70.0-0.00.80.4

Returns

PAGSSTNEMELINUPYPLFISVMedian
NamePagSegur.StoneCo MercadoL.Nu PayPal Fiserv  
1M Rtn-0.3%-10.8%-6.9%1.7%-2.8%9.0%-1.5%
3M Rtn-11.1%-24.3%-21.7%-0.6%-12.1%-49.1%-16.9%
6M Rtn3.7%-3.1%-20.2%29.6%-12.0%-57.7%-7.6%
12M Rtn44.0%65.3%5.9%35.6%-33.6%-66.5%20.7%
3Y Rtn26.6%60.2%127.1%306.7%-12.9%-30.7%43.4%
1M Excs Rtn-1.1%-11.6%-7.6%0.9%-3.5%8.2%-2.3%
3M Excs Rtn-12.4%-26.3%-24.0%-2.2%-13.3%-49.9%-18.6%
6M Excs Rtn-8.6%-15.5%-32.6%17.2%-24.4%-70.0%-19.9%
12M Excs Rtn27.2%48.6%-6.0%21.8%-44.8%-77.7%7.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-57.6%-16.9%49.3%226.1%-86.7%-101.8%-37.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Financial service agents15,68015,15910,2996,6865,581
Total15,68015,15910,2996,6865,581


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,382,150
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202522.5%
Average Daily Volume6,400,911
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.03
Basic Shares Quantity291,871,544
Short % of Basic Shares6.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025111220256-K 9/30/2025
630202581320256-K 6/30/2025
331202551320256-K 3/31/2025
12312024429202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111320246-K 9/30/2024
630202482020246-K 6/30/2024
331202452320246-K 3/31/2024
12312023429202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111720236-K 9/30/2023
630202382420236-K 6/30/2023
331202352520236-K 3/31/2023
12312022428202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022112220226-K 9/30/2022
630202282520226-K 6/30/2022
331202260820226-K 3/31/2022
12312021502202220-F 12/31/2021