PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.355 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.355Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 83%, Dividend Yield is 6.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | Key risksPAGS key risks include [1] high susceptibility to Brazil's elevated interest rates, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 5.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 83%, Dividend Yield is 6.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 5.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
| Key risksPAGS key risks include [1] high susceptibility to Brazil's elevated interest rates, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PAGS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) experienced a stock movement around 5.6% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: On November 12, 2025, PagSeguro Digital reported its Q3 2025 earnings, which showed a mixed performance. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36 exceeded analysts' consensus estimate of $0.35. However, quarterly revenue reached $937.15 million, falling short of the analysts' expectation of $971.30 million. This combination of an EPS beat and a revenue miss led to a 5.44% drop in the company's stock during after-hours trading on November 25, 2025.
2. Downward Revision of Gross Profit Growth Guidance: Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, PagSeguro Digital revised its gross profit growth guidance downwards. The company adjusted its forecast to 5%-7% from a previous range of 7%-11%, indicating a more cautious outlook on future profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAGS Return | 67% | -54% | -67% | 43% | -50% | 62% | -70% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -41% | 60% | 14% | 12% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAGS Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 42% | 63% | 48% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAGS Max Drawdown | -56% | -58% | -71% | -19% | -50% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -51% | -12% | -16% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STNE, MELI, NU, PYPL, FISV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -88.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 778.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 193 days | 120 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, CHOW, NTSK
In The Past
PagSeguro Digital's stock fell -88.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -88.6% loss requires a 778.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PAGS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PagSeguro Digital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 47.0 |
| Rev LTM | 20,340 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,296 |
| FCF LTM | 4,142 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,140 |
| CFO LTM | 5,686 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,287 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 47.0 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 11.6 |
| P/CFO | 7.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -37.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4292025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8202024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5232024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4292024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11172023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8242023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5252023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8252022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6082022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 5022022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |