Varonis Systems (VRNS)
Market Price (4/14/2026): $22.01 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Varonis Systems (VRNS)
Market Price (4/14/2026): $22.01Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -62% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity. Themes include Software Security, Cloud Security, and Identity Management. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -147 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.2% Key risksVRNS key risks include [1] near-term financial headwinds from weaker-than-expected legacy renewals during its SaaS transition and [2] declining gross margins due to higher cloud infrastructure costs. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -62% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity. Themes include Software Security, Cloud Security, and Identity Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -147 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.2% |
| Key risksVRNS key risks include [1] near-term financial headwinds from weaker-than-expected legacy renewals during its SaaS transition and [2] declining gross margins due to higher cloud infrastructure costs. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Varonis Systems (VRNS) stock has lost about 35% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Significantly weaker-than-expected full-year 2026 profit guidance.
On February 3, 2026, Varonis Systems reported Q4 2025 earnings that surpassed analyst estimates. However, shares plunged approximately 12.9% in after-hours trading following the release of disappointing guidance for fiscal year 2026. The company projected a loss of $0.05 to $0.06 per share for Q1 2026, contrary to analyst expectations of a $0.05 profit. For the full year 2026, Varonis forecasted earnings per share of $0.06 to $0.10, significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.34 per share. This lowered profit outlook was a primary driver of the stock's decline.
2. Continued challenges and "renewal softness" in the SaaS transition.
A critical disclosure made on October 28, 2025, highlighted weaker-than-expected renewals and conversions of existing customers from on-premises to the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) business model. This issue continued to weigh on investor sentiment into the specified period. The company experienced a 63.9% year-over-year decline in term license revenue, as customers moved away from the legacy on-premises model faster than new SaaS conversions could offset the revenue impact. This "renewal softness," particularly within its Federal vertical, contributed to a significant cash flow headwind for 2026, estimated at $30 million to $50 million.
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1. Significantly weaker-than-expected full-year 2026 profit guidance.
On February 3, 2026, Varonis Systems reported Q4 2025 earnings that surpassed analyst estimates. However, shares plunged approximately 12.9% in after-hours trading following the release of disappointing guidance for fiscal year 2026. The company projected a loss of $0.05 to $0.06 per share for Q1 2026, contrary to analyst expectations of a $0.05 profit. For the full year 2026, Varonis forecasted earnings per share of $0.06 to $0.10, significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.34 per share. This lowered profit outlook was a primary driver of the stock's decline.
2. Continued challenges and "renewal softness" in the SaaS transition.
A critical disclosure made on October 28, 2025, highlighted weaker-than-expected renewals and conversions of existing customers from on-premises to the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) business model. This issue continued to weigh on investor sentiment into the specified period. The company experienced a 63.9% year-over-year decline in term license revenue, as customers moved away from the legacy on-premises model faster than new SaaS conversions could offset the revenue impact. This "renewal softness," particularly within its Federal vertical, contributed to a significant cash flow headwind for 2026, estimated at $30 million to $50 million.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -33.0% change in VRNS stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.80 | 21.97 | -33.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 609 | 624 | 2.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.2 | 4.2 | -33.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 118 | -2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -33.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VRNS | -33.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 1.1% | 36.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -61.8% change in VRNS stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.47 | 21.97 | -61.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 595 | 624 | 4.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.8 | 4.2 | -61.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 112 | 118 | -4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -61.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VRNS | -61.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 14.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 3.5% | 18.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -45.7% change in VRNS stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.45 | 21.97 | -45.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 551 | 624 | 13.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.3 | 4.2 | -49.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 112 | 118 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -45.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VRNS | -45.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 24.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 41.7% | 26.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.5% change in VRNS stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.01 | 21.97 | -15.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 474 | 624 | 31.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.0 | 4.2 | -30.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109 | 118 | -7.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VRNS | -15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 31.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 96.6% | 30.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VRNS Return | -11% | -51% | 89% | -2% | -26% | -38% | -63% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -42% | 68% | -6% | -1% | -34% | -39% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VRNS Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 75% | 33% | 50% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 29% | 69% | 48% | 37% | 10% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VRNS Max Drawdown | -19% | -67% | -6% | -8% | -32% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -50% | -8% | -23% | -19% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SAIL, TENB, QLYS, OKTA, CRWD. See VRNS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VRNS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 358.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 375 days | 120 days |
Compare to SAIL, TENB, QLYS, OKTA, CRWD
In The Past
Varonis Systems's stock fell -78.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/7/2021. A -78.2% loss requires a 358.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Varonis Systems (VRNS)
Varonis Systems, Inc. provides software products and services that allow enterprises to manage, analyze, alert, and secure enterprise data in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. Its software enables enterprises to protect data stored on premises and in the cloud, including sensitive files and emails; confidential personal data belonging to customers, and patients and employees' data; financial records; strategic and product plans; and other intellectual property. The company offers DatAdvantage that captures, aggregates, normalizes, and analyzes every data access event for users on Windows and UNIX/Linux servers, storage devices, email systems, Intranet servers, cloud applications, and data stores; and DatAlert that profiles users, devices, and their behaviors related to systems and data, detects and alerts on deviations that indicate compromise, and provides a Web-based dashboard and investigative interface. It also provides Data Classification Engine that identifies and tags data based on criteria set in various metadata dimensions, as well as provides business and information technology (IT) personnel with actionable intelligence about data; and DataPrivilege, which offers a self-service Web portal that allows users to request access to data necessary for their business functions, and owners to grant access without IT intervention. In addition, the company provides Data Transport Engine, which provides an execution engine that unifies the manipulation of data and metadata, translating business decisions, and instructions into technical commands, such as data migration or archiving; and DatAnswers that offers search functionality for enterprise data. Varonis Systems, Inc. sells products and services through a network of distributors and resellers. The company serves IT, security, and business personnel. Varonis Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. It's like **CrowdStrike for your company's sensitive data and files.**
2. It's like **Splunk for enterprise data security and governance.**
AI Analysis | Feedback
- DatAdvantage: This software captures, aggregates, normalizes, and analyzes every data access event for users across various servers, storage, email systems, and cloud applications.
- DatAlert: This product profiles users, devices, and their behaviors related to systems and data, detecting and alerting on deviations that indicate compromise.
- Data Classification Engine: This engine identifies and tags data based on set criteria, providing actionable intelligence for business and IT personnel.
- DataPrivilege: It offers a self-service web portal enabling users to request access to necessary data and owners to grant that access without IT intervention.
- Data Transport Engine: This engine unifies the manipulation of data and metadata, translating business decisions into technical commands like data migration or archiving.
- DatAnswers: This product provides search functionality for enterprise data.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Varonis Systems (VRNS) sells its software products and services primarily to other companies, specifically to a broad range of enterprises across various industries.
The company's offerings are designed to protect data for these enterprises, serving their IT, security, and business personnel. The provided background information does not list the names of specific major customer companies.
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Yaki Faitelson, CEO, President, Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board
Yaki Faitelson co-founded Varonis Systems in 2005. He is responsible for leading the management, strategic direction, and execution of the company's vision. Before co-founding Varonis, he held leadership positions in the global professional services and systems integration divisions of NetVision and Network Appliance (NetApp).
Guy Melamed, CFO & COO
Guy Melamed serves as Varonis' Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, overseeing global operations, business strategies, and financial management. He joined Varonis in 2011, serving in various finance roles, including Vice President of Finance, before being appointed CFO in 2017 and later COO in 2018. Prior to joining Varonis, he held positions as an Audit Manager at Ernst & Young and KPMG, working with both public and private companies.
David Bass, Executive VP of Engineering & CTO
David Bass is responsible for all of Varonis' product development and quality assurance. He has been with Varonis since 2005 and is the author of more than twenty Varonis patents. Previously, he held managerial development positions at NetVision Internet Applications.
Dana Shahar, Chief Human Resources Officer
Dana Shahar is responsible for all aspects of Human Resources at Varonis, including recruiting, employee relations, leadership, and organizational development. She joined Varonis in 2015. Prior to Varonis, she led "Intoto Solutions," an HR consulting company, and served as VP of Human Resources at Radcom for nine years.
David Gibson, Senior VP of Strategic Programs
David Gibson has over 20 years of technology and marketing experience and is responsible for building brand awareness, aligning product innovations with market demand, and driving sales through marketing and educational initiatives. He joined Varonis in 2006. Before Varonis, he was a systems engineer for Tripwire and a network management and security engineer at International Integrated Solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Varonis Systems (VRNS) largely revolve around its ongoing business model transformation and the intensely competitive cybersecurity landscape. The most significant risks include: 1. **Challenges with SaaS Transition and Legacy On-Premises Business** Varonis Systems is in the process of transitioning its business model from on-premises term licenses to a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model. While the SaaS component of its business is growing, the decline in its legacy on-premises term license subscriptions, particularly within the Federal vertical, has been more rapid and impactful than anticipated. This has created a significant "drag" on the company's overall Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth, leading to revenue misses and downward revisions of financial guidance. This struggle to effectively convert existing customers from the on-premises model to the SaaS platform has resulted in substantial stock price declines and has even led to securities class action lawsuits alleging misrepresentations regarding the SaaS transition's smoothness and conversion potential. 2. **Intense Competition in the Cybersecurity Market** Varonis operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving cybersecurity industry. The company faces significant competition from a diverse range of players, including large security vendors like Microsoft and IBM, specialist data security firms such as Imperva and Netwrix, and broader cybersecurity companies like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. This competitive pressure, coupled with the need for continuous innovation in the face of new and evolving cyber threats, poses a risk to Varonis's market position, pricing power, and overall profitability if it fails to differentiate its offerings or keep pace with technological advancements. 3. **Profitability Challenges and High Financial Leverage** Despite its growth-oriented focus, Varonis Systems has consistently reported negative profitability on key financial metrics, including operating margin and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). The company also carries a high level of financial leverage, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio significantly above the market average. This high leverage increases the company's exposure to refinancing and interest coverage risks, especially if there is a slowdown in free cash flow generation or overall business growth. While the shift to SaaS is anticipated to improve margins and financial visibility in the long term, current profitability remains a notable concern.AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing integration of comprehensive data security, governance, and compliance capabilities directly into major cloud service platforms (such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform) poses an emerging threat. As enterprises migrate more data and workloads to the cloud, the native offerings from these platform providers could diminish the need for specialized third-party solutions like Varonis, especially for cloud-native data, by offering tightly integrated, potentially more cost-effective, and holistic security and management within their ecosystems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Varonis Systems (VRNS) operates within several significant addressable markets related to data security, governance, and classification. The company has expanded its total addressable market (TAM) from an estimated legacy of $10 billion to approximately $32 billion globally, a growth attributed to securing cloud platforms, integrating Generative AI capabilities, and extending protection to cloud data stores and databases. Key addressable markets for Varonis Systems' main products and services include: * Data Security: The global data security market was valued at an estimated $172.67 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $656.47 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.10%. North America held a substantial share of 31.50% of this market in 2025. * Data Governance: The global data governance market was valued at approximately $5.2 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $19.9 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 15.21% from 2026 to 2034. North America accounted for a significant portion of this market, holding a 35.3% share in 2025. * Data Classification: In 2024, the global data classification market size was valued at around $1.86 billion and is estimated to grow to $11.05 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 20.78% from 2025 to 2033. North America currently dominates this market, holding over 32.8% market share in 2024. * Insider Threat Protection/Management: The global insider threat protection market size was valued at $5.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to exceed $28.59 billion by 2035, demonstrating a CAGR of over 17.5% from 2026 to 2035. North America is expected to remain the largest region in this market, holding approximately a 30% share by 2035.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Varonis Systems (VRNS) over the next 2-3 years:
- Accelerated Transition to and Growth of the Cloud-native SaaS Model: Varonis is undergoing a significant transition to a cloud-native Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model, with management anticipating completing this shift by the end of 2026. This move is transforming unit economics and customer acquisition, with SaaS Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) making up a substantial and growing portion of total ARR, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable, recurring revenue model.
- Product Innovation and Expansion, focusing on AI-driven Security and Deeper Cloud Integrations: Varonis is continually enhancing its platform through product innovation, particularly in cloud security and AI-driven analytics. This includes ongoing investments in AI/Machine Learning (ML) threat detection models, automated data security solutions, and the integration of new AI security capabilities like Athena AI for accelerated investigations and autonomous remediation. Furthermore, Varonis is broadening its cloud integrations beyond major platforms like Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace to specialized SaaS applications and Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) storage, enabling greater visibility as data migrates.
- Geographic Expansion and Capitalizing on Regulatory Tailwinds: The company plans to expand its presence in both established and new markets, with a particular focus on regions experiencing increasing regulatory pressures and rising cloud technology adoption. Efforts include expanding local sales, partnerships, and data-residency options in areas such as EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) and APJ (Asia-Pacific Japan), driven by compliance demands like GDPR and DORA.
- New Customer Acquisition and Upselling within the Existing SaaS Customer Base: As Varonis completes its SaaS transition, its sales organization is refocusing on acquiring new customers and expanding within existing SaaS accounts. The SaaS-first delivery model shortens deployment times, reducing friction for new customers. Strong net-dollar retention rates for SaaS customers indicate that existing clients are expanding their usage, supporting sustainable top-line growth and upsell-led revenue expansion.
- Expansion of Managed Detection and Response (MDDR) Service: The Managed Data Detection and Response service is a strategic initiative to expand Varonis' addressable market, especially into mid-market accounts that may not have mature Security Operations Center (SOC) teams. This service aims to accelerate customer acquisition and increase the average contract value by providing 24/7 expert monitoring.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Varonis Systems' board of directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million of its common stock on February 10, 2025, expected to be completed over the subsequent 12 months.
- On October 28, 2025, the company announced a new share repurchase program, authorizing repurchases of up to $150 million of its common stock over the next 12 months.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, Varonis repurchased $15 million worth of shares, acquiring 448,439 shares at an average price of $33.45 per share.
Share Issuance
- The number of common shares outstanding increased from 109,103,721 as of February 2, 2024, to 112,550,156 as of January 31, 2025. Diluted shares outstanding for Q4 2025 were 133.3 million.
Outbound Investments
- Varonis acquired Altru.ai in February 2026, aiming to manage and secure AI across the enterprise.
- The company acquired Cyral in October 2025, which contributes to its Next-Gen Database Activity Monitoring (DAM) capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $10 million in 2021, $11 million in 2022, $5.10 million in 2023, $6.69 million in 2024, and $15.5 million in 2025.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is to support the company's transition to a SaaS delivery model and to enhance its data security platform.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,008 |
| Op Inc LTM | -76 |
| FCF LTM | 277 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 257 |
| CFO LTM | 288 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 266 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/EBIT | -4.1 |
| P/E | -20.0 |
| P/CFO | 15.3 |
| Total Yield | -1.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -33.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -38.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -35.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -24.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -18.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -32.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -41.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -62.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -94.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $21.97 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/28/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -65.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $23.71 | $41.10 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.3% | -46.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 67.1% | 65.5% |
| Downside Capture | 1.45 | 0.69 |
| Upside Capture | 84.42 | 19.77 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.8% | 18.5% |
VRNS Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.82 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| Up Beta | -1.02 | -0.10 | 0.65 | 3.26 | 1.04 | 0.98 |
| Down Beta | -1.66 | 0.03 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| Up Capture | -106% | 85% | 72% | -66% | 16% | 66% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 30 | 61 | 135 | 392 |
| Down Capture | 6% | 214% | 211% | 150% | 106% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 64 | 115 | 352 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VRNS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRNS | -48.1% | 65.2% | -0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 43.7% | 21.6% | 1.58 | 21.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.7% | 13.7% | 1.06 | 18.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.7% | 27.6% | 1.55 | -0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.2% | 16.2% | 1.37 | -3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.8% | 14.0% | 0.76 | 18.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -11.7% | 43.0% | -0.17 | 21.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VRNS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRNS | -17.1% | 52.3% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.0% | 24.7% | 0.62 | 43.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 42.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 32.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.6% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 24.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VRNS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRNS | 13.4% | 47.3% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.0% | 24.3% | 0.83 | 47.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 35.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 15.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | -10.8% | -1.0% | -10.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -48.7% | -43.9% | -48.7% |
| 7/29/2025 | 5.3% | 1.6% | 7.9% |
| 5/6/2025 | 2.3% | 3.6% | 13.3% |
| 2/4/2025 | -7.4% | -8.8% | -12.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | -10.7% | -13.5% | -15.7% |
| 7/29/2024 | 14.6% | 3.7% | 18.5% |
| 5/6/2024 | 0.9% | -1.1% | -3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 7.9% | 13.1% |
| Median Negative | -10.7% | -6.9% | -12.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.6% | 22.5% | 33.4% |
| Max Negative | -48.7% | -43.9% | -48.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 164.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 166.00 Mil | -1.8% | Lower New | Actual: 168.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | 68.0% | 8.5% | Higher New | Actual: 12.5% for 2025 |
| Q1 2026 SaaS ARR Growth | 27.0% | 27.5% | 28.0% | 89.7% | 13.0% | Higher New | Actual: 14.5% for 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Loss | -11.00 Mil | -10.50 Mil | -10.00 Mil | -8 | Lower New | Actual: 1.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP Net Loss Per Share | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -283.3% | Lower New | Actual: 0.03 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 722.00 Mil | 726.00 Mil | 730.00 Mil | 17.4% | Higher New | Actual: 618.20 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 16.0% | 16.5% | 17.0% | 32.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 12.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 SaaS ARR | 805.00 Mil | 822.50 Mil | 840.00 Mil | 12.1% | Higher New | Actual: 734.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 SaaS ARR Growth | 26.0% | 29.0% | 32.0% | 1 | 14.5% | Higher New | Actual: 14.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 100.00 Mil | 102.50 Mil | 105.00 Mil | -16.3% | Lower New | Actual: 122.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Income | 0 | 2.00 Mil | 4.00 Mil | -129.8% | Higher New | Actual: -6.70 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Net Income Per Share | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.1 | -36.0% | Lower New | Actual: 0.12 for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 165.00 Mil | 168.00 Mil | 171.00 Mil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 165.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Non-GAAP Operating Income | 0 | 1.50 Mil | 3.00 Mil | -72.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 EPS | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -60.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.07 for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 ARR | 730.00 Mil | 734.00 Mil | 738.00 Mil | -2.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 751.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | 120.00 Mil | 122.50 Mil | 125.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 122.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | 615.20 Mil | 618.20 Mil | 621.20 Mil | -0.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 622.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP Operating Loss | -8.20 Mil | -6.70 Mil | -5.20 Mil | -323.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.13 | -26.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.17 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melamed, Guy | CFO and COO | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 59.52 | 3,892 | 231,652 | 24,617,770 | Form |
| 2 | Melamed, Guy | CFO and COO | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 59.59 | 1,500 | 89,385 | 24,557,337 | Form |
| 3 | Melamed, Guy | CFO and COO | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 59.53 | 10,400 | 619,112 | 24,853,596 | Form |
| 4 | Melamed, Guy | CFO and COO | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 57.72 | 42,705 | 2,464,933 | 24,698,215 | Form |
| 5 | Melamed, Guy | CFO and COO | Direct | Sell | 8012025 | 55.10 | 51,889 | 2,859,084 | 25,930,170 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.