StoneCo (STNE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.31 | Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
StoneCo (STNE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.31Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 172% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 59% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 172% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 59% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
STNE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that could explain a stock movement like a -4.4% drop for StoneCo (STNE), based on recent market information:
1. StoneCo experienced investor disappointment due to a revenue miss in its latest earnings report, even when earnings per share (EPS) exceeded expectations. For instance, in its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, StoneCo's stock declined by 11.61% in after-hours trading, despite beating EPS forecasts, because revenue of $3.57 billion fell slightly short of the anticipated $3.61 billion. Similarly, after its Q3 2025 earnings, the stock declined approximately 3% in after-hours trading as revenue slightly missed consensus estimates.
2. Concerns over market saturation and intense competition within the Brazilian payments industry have led to analyst downgrades and projections of slower growth. In September 2024, Morgan Stanley downgraded StoneCo's stock rating, citing market saturation in the Brazilian payments industry, which is expected to result in slower Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth, price compression, and reduced operating leverage. Intense competition from rivals like PagSeguro, Cielo, and Mercado Pago also pressures pricing and can limit margin expansion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STNE Return | 110% | -80% | -44% | 91% | -56% | 119% | -56% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -38% | 33% | -9% | -8% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STNE Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 25% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STNE Max Drawdown | -55% | -82% | -57% | -13% | -56% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -42% | -20% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STNE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1199.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 117 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 120 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
StoneCo's stock fell -92.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -92.3% loss requires a 1199.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to STNE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for StoneCo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,985 |
| Op Inc LTM | 825 |
| FCF LTM | 163 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 112 |
| CFO LTM | 188 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -7.5 |
| P/E | 13.1 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | -3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10,495 | 8,084 | 4,091 | ||
| Software | 1,492 | 1,420 | 686 | ||
| Non allocated | 67 | 86 | 46 | ||
| Other financial income | -691 | -573 | -247 | ||
| Financial income | 1,288 | ||||
| Net revenue from subscription services and equipment rental | 332 | ||||
| Net revenue from transaction activities and other services | 770 | ||||
| Total | 11,364 | 9,016 | 4,576 | 2,390 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4242025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4242024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8162023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5172023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 5012023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11172022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6032022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4292022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |