POET Technologies (POET)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $6.8 | Market Cap: $610.8 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
POET Technologies (POET)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $6.8Market Cap: $610.8 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4124% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 536% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 799x | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 692% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3695%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4617% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% | ||
| Key risksPOET key risks include [1] failing to achieve widespread commercial adoption and scale to high-volume repeatable revenue, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 536% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4124% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 799x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 692% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3695%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4617% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
| Key risksPOET key risks include [1] failing to achieve widespread commercial adoption and scale to high-volume repeatable revenue, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
POET Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for POET Technologies (POET) between August 31, 2025, and December 20, 2025:
1. Significant Equity Financing and Investment: POET Technologies secured a substantial US$75 million investment in October 2025, aimed at accelerating growth in AI connectivity solutions. This followed an earlier $30 million private placement closed in May 2025 with a strategic investor. These financings significantly bolstered the company's capital, with a reported "war chest of over $150 million in cash" by November 2025, enabling scaling of growth ambitions in advanced AI hardware solutions. This substantial funding signals strong investor confidence and provides capital for internal expansion and potential acquisitions.
2. Major Production Orders and Commercialization Progress: The company reported initial production orders exceeding US$500,000 for its optical engines in September 2025, with shipments expected in early 2026, marking a transition into volume production. By Q3 2025, POET announced initial production orders valued over $5.6 million from key customers, indicating significant strides towards commercialization. A notable order for over $5 million for 800G optical engines further emphasized the firm's technological edge and market expansion goals.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| POET Return | 44% | 0% | 641% | -69% | 536% | 3% | 2060% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| POET Win Rate | 25% | 0% | 17% | 42% | 75% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| POET Max Drawdown | -39% | 0% | 0% | -74% | -5% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | POET | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1047.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 726 days | 148 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1126.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ
In The Past
POET Technologies's stock fell -91.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/14/2022. A -91.3% loss requires a 1047.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold POET Technologies Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| POET Technologies Stock: Buy This Under The Radar AI Play? | October 14th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to POET. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for POET Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 85.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| Rev LTM | 594 |
| Op Inc LTM | -13 |
| FCF LTM | 26 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1 |
| CFO LTM | 99 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 85 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -5.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | 2.1 |
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | 0.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11142025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4012025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11152024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5162024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11152023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4272022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |