POET Technologies (POET)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $6.09 | Market Cap: $547.0 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
POET Technologies (POET)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $6.09Market Cap: $547.0 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 536% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4124% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 652x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3695%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4617% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% | ||
| Key risksPOET key risks include [1] failing to achieve widespread commercial adoption and scale to high-volume repeatable revenue, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 536% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4124% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 652x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3695%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4617% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
| Key risksPOET key risks include [1] failing to achieve widespread commercial adoption and scale to high-volume repeatable revenue, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
POET Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for POET Technologies (POET) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to today (December 18, 2025), is in the future. Therefore, there is no factual data available to explain a stock movement of 11.4% within this specific future timeframe.
However, recent news and analyst expectations regarding POET Technologies leading up to the current date indicate several factors that could influence its stock price:
1. Marvell's Acquisition of Celestial AI and POET's Role: Marvell's multi-billion acquisition of Celestial AI, a key customer whose Photonic Fabric is built upon POET's Optical Interposer platform, is seen as a significant validation of POET's technology. This acquisition is expected to accelerate POET's commercial momentum and potentially lead to high-volume purchase orders from tier-1 suppliers in the AI infrastructure space.
2. Strategic Partnerships and Manufacturing Expansion: POET Technologies has engaged with NationGate Solutions in Malaysia to expand its manufacturing capabilities for light source products, with customer visits for facility qualification. The company is also preparing for volume production of optical engines at Globetronics. Additionally, POET signed a Master Agreement with NationGate Solutions to manufacture optical engine assemblies.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| POET Return | 44% | 0% | 641% | -69% | 536% | 2% | 2039% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| POET Win Rate | 25% | 0% | 17% | 42% | 75% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| POET Max Drawdown | -39% | 0% | 0% | -74% | -5% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | POET | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1047.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 726 days | 148 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1126.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ
In The Past
POET Technologies's stock fell -91.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/14/2022. A -91.3% loss requires a 1047.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| With POET Technologies Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| POET Technologies Stock: Buy This Under The Radar AI Play? | October 14th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to POET. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for POET Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| Rev LTM | 594 |
| Op Inc LTM | -13 |
| FCF LTM | 26 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1 |
| CFO LTM | 99 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 85 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -5.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.6 |
| Total Yield | 0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11142025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4012025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11152024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5162024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11152023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4272022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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