Intel (INTC)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $64.89 | Market Cap: $344.9 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Intel (INTC)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $64.89Market Cap: $344.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.8 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -54% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.8% Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.8 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -54% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.8% |
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Intel (INTC) stock has lost about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Intel's significantly weaker financial guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 disappointed investors. The company projected Q4 2026 revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, which was notably below analysts' consensus expectations of approximately $17.0 billion to $17.3 billion, representing a revenue shortfall of about 9.2% at the midpoint. Additionally, Intel forecast adjusted earnings of $0.25 per share for fiscal Q4 2026, falling considerably short of Wall Street's projections of $0.43 to $0.45 per share, an earnings shortfall of nearly 42%. The projected adjusted gross margin for fiscal Q4 2026 was also set at 38%, a decline from 44.1% in fiscal Q3 2026.
2. The deteriorating personal computer (PC) market continued to negatively impact Intel's Client Computing Group. Management indicated that the PC slowdown was more severe and arrived sooner than anticipated, with expectations for it to persist through at least the first half of fiscal 2027. Global PC shipments fell by 21% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026, and a further 27% decline is forecast for fiscal Q4 2026. Intel anticipates the overall PC market to decline approximately 12% in fiscal 2026, followed by an additional 10% drop in fiscal 2027. Revenue from the Client Computing Group (CCPG) declined 5% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026 and is expected to fall by more than 20% sequentially in fiscal Q4 2026.
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Intel (INTC) stock has lost about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Intel's significantly weaker financial guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 disappointed investors. The company projected Q4 2026 revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, which was notably below analysts' consensus expectations of approximately $17.0 billion to $17.3 billion, representing a revenue shortfall of about 9.2% at the midpoint. Additionally, Intel forecast adjusted earnings of $0.25 per share for fiscal Q4 2026, falling considerably short of Wall Street's projections of $0.43 to $0.45 per share, an earnings shortfall of nearly 42%. The projected adjusted gross margin for fiscal Q4 2026 was also set at 38%, a decline from 44.1% in fiscal Q3 2026.
2. The deteriorating personal computer (PC) market continued to negatively impact Intel's Client Computing Group. Management indicated that the PC slowdown was more severe and arrived sooner than anticipated, with expectations for it to persist through at least the first half of fiscal 2027. Global PC shipments fell by 21% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026, and a further 27% decline is forecast for fiscal Q4 2026. Intel anticipates the overall PC market to decline approximately 12% in fiscal 2026, followed by an additional 10% drop in fiscal 2027. Revenue from the Client Computing Group (CCPG) declined 5% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026 and is expected to fall by more than 20% sequentially in fiscal Q4 2026.
3. Manufacturing bottlenecks and supply chain constraints limited Intel's ability to meet demand, particularly for its server processors. Despite strong year-over-year growth of 78% in the Data Center and AI (DCAI) group, reaching $7.3 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, shortages of raw materials, substrates, and other critical components constrained Intel's capacity to fulfill the robust demand for its Xeon server family. A two-week shutdown at an Intel fabrication facility in Israel due to a gas explosion further impacted production, with an estimated $300 million adverse effect on revenue in fiscal Q4 2026 and a similar impact anticipated in fiscal Q1 2027.
4. A wave of widespread analyst downgrades and price target reductions followed the disappointing fiscal Q4 2026 outlook. Following the earnings report, numerous investment firms, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, UBS, and others, downgraded Intel's stock and significantly cut their price targets. For instance, Bank of America downgraded Intel from Buy to Neutral and reduced its price target from $145 to $100. This reflects a widespread market recalibration of Intel's future growth and profitability prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.1% change in INTC stock from 7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.20 | 65.76 | -27.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,032 | 59,892 | 5.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.1 | 5.8 | -28.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,104 | 5,244 | -2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | -27.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 61.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.4% | 81.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.4% change in INTC stock from 4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.48 | 65.76 | -30.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,763 | 59,892 | 11.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.9 | 5.8 | -35.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,083 | 5,244 | -3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | -30.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 59.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 12.7% | 78.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.4% change in INTC stock from 10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 74.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.99 | 65.76 | 64.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,070 | 59,892 | 12.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 5.8 | 74.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,369 | 5,244 | -16.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 64.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 51.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 19.9% | 67.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 83.2% change in INTC stock from 10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 101.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.90 | 65.76 | 83.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52,864 | 59,892 | 13.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.9 | 5.8 | 101.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,202 | 5,244 | -19.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 83.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 83.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 47.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 122.8% | 56.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTC Return | 6% | -47% | 95% | -60% | 84% | 78% | 46% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -41% | 116% | 54% | 84% | 70% | 869% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 42% | 65% | 55% | 60% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTC Max Drawdown | -29% | -54% | -17% | -62% | -34% | -53% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -51% | -20% | -35% | -37% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, MU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 973 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Intel (INTC)
Intel Corporation (INTC) is a global technology company specializing in the design, manufacture, and sale of a wide array of computer products and technologies. At its core, Intel is renowned for providing essential platform products such as central processing units (CPUs) and chipsets, which are fundamental components powering personal computers, servers, and other computing devices worldwide. Beyond these core processors, the company also offers a variety of non-platform products including graphics cards, memory, storage solutions, accelerators, and connectivity products.
Intel's technological reach extends into diverse applications and serves a broad range of customers and markets. The company develops high-performance computing solutions for targeted industries like retail, industrial, and healthcare, often for embedded systems. Through its Mobileye segment, Intel is a key player in the assisted and autonomous driving sector, providing advanced compute platforms and computer vision systems. Its primary customers include Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs), cloud service providers, large enterprises, government entities, and communications service providers, integrating Intel's innovations into their products and infrastructure.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Intel:
- Intel is like Microsoft for computer processors.
- Intel is like General Electric for microchips.
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- Central Processing Units (CPUs) & Chipsets: Core components that power computers and manage data flow.
- System-on-Chip (SoC) & Multichip Packages: Integrated solutions that combine various components onto a single package for efficiency and specialized applications.
- Accelerators & Graphics Products: Hardware designed to enhance performance for specific computing tasks and render visual content.
- Memory & Storage Products: Components for data retention and retrieval within computing systems.
- Connectivity Products: Hardware enabling network communication, such as Wi-Fi, Ethernet, and Thunderbolt.
- High-Performance Compute & Embedded Solutions: Specialized computing platforms for demanding applications in sectors like retail, industrial, and healthcare.
- Autonomous Driving Solutions (Mobileye): Comprehensive systems for self-driving vehicles, including compute platforms, sensors, and AI software.
- Workload-Optimized Platforms: Tailored computing platforms and related products for cloud, enterprise, government, and communication service providers.
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Intel's major customers are primarily other companies, as it sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), original design manufacturers (ODMs), and cloud service providers (CSPs). Major customers known to operate in these categories include:
- Dell Technologies (DELL)
- HP Inc. (HPQ)
- Lenovo Group Limited (0992.HK) - Note: Primary listing is in Hong Kong
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - for its Amazon Web Services (AWS)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - for its Azure cloud platform
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - for its Google Cloud Platform (GCP)
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- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
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Lip-Bu Tan Chief Executive Officer
Lip-Bu Tan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Intel Corporation in March 2025. He previously served as CEO of Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021, a period during which he doubled the company's revenue. Tan also founded Walden International in 1987, a global venture capital firm that has supported numerous successful technology startups. He holds a Bachelor of Science in physics, a Master of Science in nuclear engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the University of San Francisco.
David Zinsner Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
David Zinsner has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Intel Corporation since January 2022. Prior to joining Intel, he was the Executive Vice President and CFO at Micron Technology Inc. for nearly four years. His career also includes serving as President and Chief Operating Officer at Affirmed Networks, and as Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO at Analog Devices and Intersil Corp. At Intersil, Zinsner joined as treasurer when a private equity firm acquired the business from Harris Corporation, and he played a role in taking Intersil public.
April Miller Boise Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
April Miller Boise is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Intel Corporation, a role she assumed in July 2022. Before her tenure at Intel, she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Eaton Corp., starting in 2020. Preceding Eaton, she held the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary for Meritor Inc.
Naga Chandrasekaran Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, including Intel Foundry Services
Naga Chandrasekaran serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, with an expanded role that now includes Intel Foundry Services. He joined Intel in 2024 from Micron, where he was the Senior Vice President for technology development, bringing decades of experience in semiconductor manufacturing and research and development.
Sachin Katti Chief Technology and AI Officer
Sachin Katti holds the title of Chief Technology and AI Officer at Intel. He was appointed to this additional role in mid-April 2025, where he leads Intel's overall AI strategy, AI product roadmap, Intel Labs, and engagements with the startup and developer ecosystems. Prior to this expanded responsibility, Katti led Intel's networking business.
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Key Risks to Intel's Business
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Intel faces significant competitive pressures, particularly from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in the core CPU market, where Intel has experienced a substantial decline in market share. The company also lags behind NVIDIA in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) chip and GPU markets, missing out on crucial growth opportunities. The emergence of ARM-based processors further challenges Intel's traditional dominance in the x86 architecture.
- Manufacturing Delays, Execution Risks, and Losses in Foundry Business: Intel's manufacturing execution has faltered, with prolonged delays and setbacks in advancing its process technology nodes (e.g., 10nm to 7nm, and challenges with the 18A node). This has allowed competitors leveraging third-party foundries like TSMC to gain a technological edge. Furthermore, Intel's significant investments in its foundry business (Intel Foundry Services) have resulted in multi-billion dollar operating losses, with management not expecting break-even until at least 2027, highlighting substantial execution risk around capacity, yields, and capital returns.
- Financial Strain and High Capital Expenditure: Intel's financial health has deteriorated, marked by a significant revenue decline of over 30% between 2021 and 2024, plummeting gross margins, and negative free cash flow. The company's turnaround strategy (IDM 2.0) requires immense capital expenditure for foundry construction and technology development (targeting approximately $18 billion in gross capital expenditures for 2025), which places significant strain on its balance sheet and poses considerable financial risk.
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The growing adoption of ARM-based processors across key computing segments represents a clear emerging threat. Specifically, Apple's successful transition to its own ARM-based Apple Silicon for its Mac computers has eliminated a significant chunk of Intel's traditional PC business. Concurrently, major cloud service providers are increasingly developing and deploying their own custom ARM-based chips (such as AWS Graviton) to power their data centers, directly challenging Intel's dominance in the server CPU market.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Intel's main products and services:
-
Client Computing Group (CCG) - PC Market:
- The worldwide PC market shipped 245.4 million units in 2024.
- The global gaming PC market was estimated at USD 61.84 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.93 billion by 2030.
- The global industrial personal computer (PC) market size was estimated at USD 6.48 billion in 2024.
-
Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) - Server CPUs and AI Chips:
- The worldwide server market value is projected to reach USD 366 billion in 2025.
- The global data center CPU market size was calculated at USD 13.16 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 28.04 billion by 2034.
- The global AI data centers market size is valued at USD 17.43 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 197.57 billion by 2035.
- Intel's custom AI processor business addresses a USD 100 billion total addressable market.
-
Mobileye - Autonomous Driving Solutions:
- The global autonomous vehicles market size was projected to grow from USD 224.67 billion in 2024 to USD 7197.33 billion by 2035.
- The global autonomous vehicle sensors market size was estimated at USD 9.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to surpass USD 32.29 billion by 2034.
-
Internet of Things Group (IOTG) - IoT Market:
- The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030.
- The global IoT devices market size was estimated at USD 70.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 181.17 billion by 2030.
- The global IoT Edge Computing market size in 2024 stands at USD 7.8 billion and is expected to reach USD 28.7 billion by the end of 2033.
-
Programmable Solutions Group (PSG) - FPGA Market:
- The global field programmable gate array market size was valued at USD 12.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 13.92 billion in 2025 to USD 27.51 billion by 2032.
-
NAND Solutions Group (NSG) - NAND Flash Memory:
- The NAND Flash Memory Market size was valued at USD 71.53 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 161.88 billion by 2035.
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Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
-
Growth in Data Center and AI (DCAI) Segment: Intel anticipates significant revenue growth from its Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment, particularly driven by increasing demand for AI accelerators and custom Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). The company reported that its custom AI processor revenue surpassed a $1 billion annual run rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a strong growth opportunity in this area. Management also highlighted the expanding role of CPUs within hyperscale and enterprise AI data centers as inference-driven AI workloads grow. Intel's Gaudi AI accelerators are a key part of this strategy, with the company seeing strong demand for these products.
-
Expansion of Intel Foundry Services (IFS) with Advanced Process Nodes: Intel is making substantial investments in its foundry business, aiming to become a leading external foundry. The success and ramp-up of advanced process technologies, such as Intel 18A, are critical to attracting external customers and boosting revenue. Intel expects its 18A node to reach commercially competitive yields in the first half of 2026, and its 14A node is projected to be market-ready by the end of 2027. Government support, including the CHIPS Act, further reinforces Intel's position as a "national champion" in semiconductor manufacturing.
-
Rebound in the Client Computing Group (CCG) Driven by AI PCs: While the Client Computing Group has faced challenges, Intel expects a rebound in this segment, primarily fueled by the growing adoption of "AI PCs." The company aims to ship over 100 million AI PCs by 2025. New product launches, including Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake, and Panther Lake CPUs, are also anticipated to contribute to revenue growth within the CCG as the broader PC market stabilizes and upgrades occur.
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Share Repurchases
- Intel's CEO stated in 2021 that the company would not be as focused on buybacks as in the past.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had an ongoing authorization to repurchase up to $110.0 billion in shares, with $7.24 billion remaining available.
Share Issuance
- Intel's net common equity issued/repurchased for 2025 was $19.506 billion, a 42.37% increase from 2024.
- In 2024, net common equity issued/repurchased amounted to $13.701 billion, which was a 148.57% increase from 2023.
- Shares outstanding for Intel in 2025 increased by 5.84% from 2024, reaching 4.53 billion.
Inbound Investments
- In Q3 2025, Intel received a $15 billion capital infusion from significant investors including the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank.
- The U.S. government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel, valued at approximately $8.9 billion, through the conversion of CHIPS Act and defense grants.
- Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel common stock and entered a collaboration to jointly develop data center and PC products.
- SoftBank Group also made a $2 billion investment in Intel common stock.
Outbound Investments
- In the third quarter of 2025, Intel sold a majority ownership interest in Altera, a chip subsidiary, for $5.2 billion.
- Intel also divested a stake in Mobileye, resulting in billions of dollars in proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- Intel's capital expenditures in 2024 totaled $23.94 billion, primarily directed towards expanding manufacturing capabilities, particularly in advanced process technologies.
- For the full fiscal year 2025, Intel is targeting a gross capital expenditure of $18 billion, a reduction from its previous target of $20 billion, with a focus on building out manufacturing capabilities and scaling its 18A process capacity.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had committed $9.1 billion for capital expenditures in 2026, with plans to increase spending on tools to address supply shortfalls for Intel 7, Intel 3, and 18A nodes.
Peer Outperformance in Semiconductors
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Intel | 4.4% | -28.7x | 64.4% | 79.3% | 45.7% | — |
| ADI | Analog Devices | 5.4% | 49.0x | 80.4% | 174.5% | 161.4% | +116pp |
| PENG | Penguin Solutions | 8.2% | 16.0x | 133.2% | 281.0% | 94.3% | +49pp |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology | 4.2% | 15.8x | 23.2% | 88.2% | 92.8% | +47pp |
| TXN | Texas Instruments | 5.6% | 38.7x | 90.4% | 128.0% | 84.6% | +39pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 10 | 23.5% | 116.3% | 232.6% | FLEX 597% · TTMI 526% · JBL 362% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 46.6% | 83.2% | 82.4% | AVT 162% · SNX 140% · CNXN 100% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 28 | 41.2% | 75.7% | 59.3% | AXTI 574% · LRCX 346% · KLAC 345% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 2.6% | 86.8% | 51.0% | LITE 918% · AAOI 803% · ANET 559% |
| Electronic Components | 26 | 0.4% | 67.9% | 46.8% | CLS 2604% · BELFA 1204% · APH 332% |
| Semiconductors ← | 55 | 1.3% | 55.8% | 16.4% | MU 1211% · NVDA 704% · AVGO 570% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 21 | 3.7% | 100.8% | 2.6% | WDC 841% · SMCI 831% · DELL 744% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 27 | -6.9% | 33.7% | -1.1% | PI 158% · OSIS 114% · MIR 73% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 5.8% | 60.2% | -10.1% | GDDY 69% · VRSN 40% · DOCN -8% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -26.7% | 2.5% | -24.6% | CHRN 378321% · APLD 280% · IBM 160% |
| Application Software | 126 | -17.2% | -2.8% | -49.0% | PLTR 611% · FROG 189% · AGYS 143% |
| Systems Software | 69 | -10.0% | 25.5% | -51.8% | ZETA 277% · CRWD 255% · CVLT 169% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| What Is The Case For Waiting On Intel Stock? | 09/25/2026 | |
| What Happens To Intel Stock If The Spending Keeps Climbing? | 09/23/2026 | |
| Can NVIDIA Outrun Intel in the Next Rally? | 09/12/2026 | |
| 5-Day Sell-Off Sends Intel Stock Down 16% | 08/25/2026 | |
| Intel Stock On A Winning Streak: Time To Get In Or Book Profits? | 08/20/2026 | |
| The Best Problem a Chipmaker Can Have | 08/15/2026 | |
| What Could Fuel the Next Big Move for Intel Stock? | 08/14/2026 | |
| CRDO, MU Look Smarter Buy Than Intel Stock | 08/01/2026 | |
| The Real Risk Inside Intel Stock | 07/30/2026 | |
| Intel Stock 6-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls 22% | 07/30/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: FDXF, REGN, GPN | Losers: RDDT, INTC, ILMN | 10/31/2026 | |
| Did The Market Read Intel Right? | 10/27/2026 | |
| Should You Trim Or Add To Your Intel Position Now? | 10/22/2026 | |
| What Did Intel Stock Investors Miss Before The Run? | 10/19/2026 | |
| Is Intel’s Record Sales Growth Still Improving? | 10/14/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 266.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 917.3 |
| Rev LTM | 74,498 |
| Op Inc LTM | 26,748 |
| FCF LTM | 24,910 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 15,893 |
| CFO LTM | 29,062 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 20,664 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 44.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 67.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 14.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 135.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 215.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 32.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 917.3 |
| P/S | 12.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 30.6 |
| P/EBIT | 18.1 |
| P/E | 22.3 |
| P/CFO | 28.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -14.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 333.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 15.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 260.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing and Physical AI Group (CCPG) | 32,228 | 33,346 | 32,305 | 31,773 |
| Intel Foundry | 17,826 | 17,317 | 18,504 | 27,491 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 16,919 | 16,125 | 15,980 | 16,856 |
| All Other | 3,563 | 3,601 | 5,463 | 5,530 |
| Corporate unallocated | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -17,683 | -17,288 | -18,024 | -27,005 |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 8,409 | |||
| Total | 52,853 | 53,101 | 54,228 | 63,054 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing and Physical AI Group (CCPG) | 9,317 | 11,594 | 10,128 | 8,207 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 3,422 | 1,414 | 945 | 4,198 |
| Intersegment eliminations | 619 | -161 | -205 | -1,975 |
| All Other | 264 | -57 | 1,507 | 1,174 |
| Corporate unallocated | -5,518 | -11,177 | -5,199 | -5,633 |
| Intel Foundry | -10,318 | -13,291 | -7,083 | -5,169 |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 1,532 | |||
| Total | -2,214 | -11,678 | 93 | 2,334 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $65.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 344.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -53.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $101.11 | $86.86 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -35.0% | -24.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 85.6% | 83.1% |
| Downside Capture | 230.74 | 219.86 |
| Upside Capture | 221.24 | 292.19 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 41.9% | 47.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 6.76 | 5.26 | 4.85 | 4.28 | 3.35 | 2.06 |
| Up Beta | 1.08 | 8.45 | 6.32 | 6.06 | 4.21 | 2.04 |
| Down Beta | 12.27 | 12.24 | 10.35 | 4.67 | 3.68 | 1.94 |
| Up Capture | 18% | 203% | 258% | 464% | 892% | 1649% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 32 | 57 | 124 | 372 |
| Down Capture | 696% | 338% | 336% | 268% | 169% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 32 | 69 | 126 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 59.4% | 83.1% | 0.92 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.6% | 27.1% | 0.60 | 67.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 51.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | 25.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | -6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | -4.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.0% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 23.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 7.5% | 56.9% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.6% | 26.1% | 0.64 | 57.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 16.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 23.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.9% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 20.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 8.6% | 47.1% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.7% | 25.1% | 0.86 | 61.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 54.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 13.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 30.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.8% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 15.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | -28.6% | ||
| 7/23/2026 | -7.9% | -9.1% | -10.1% |
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 17 | 15 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -9.3% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| Max Negative | -28.6% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | -28.6% | ||
| 7/23/2026 | -7.9% | -9.1% | -10.1% |
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -12.1% |
| 1/25/2024 | -11.9% | -12.5% | -13.0% |
| 10/26/2023 | 9.3% | 15.9% | 36.0% |
| 7/27/2023 | 6.6% | 0.9% | -3.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | 4.0% | 5.1% | -2.5% |
| 1/26/2023 | -6.4% | 0.3% | -16.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 10.7% | 4.3% | 10.8% |
| 7/28/2022 | -8.6% | -9.3% | -15.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -6.9% | -4.0% | -4.1% |
| 1/26/2022 | -7.0% | -4.2% | -7.0% |
| 10/21/2021 | -11.7% | -14.1% | -11.0% |
| 7/22/2021 | -5.3% | -4.0% | -6.5% |
| 4/22/2021 | -5.3% | -6.9% | -9.8% |
| 1/21/2021 | -9.3% | -10.2% | -2.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 17 | 15 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -9.3% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| Max Negative | -28.6% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/24/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 15.00 Bil | 15.50 Bil | 16.00 Bil | -4.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 16.30 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Gross Margin | Reported | 37.1% | -3.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 41.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 38.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 4.90 Bil | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 4.40 Bil | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Tax Rate | Reported | 31.0% | 30.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Tax Rate | Reported | 11.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 EPS | Reported | 0.1 | -67.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.31 for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 0.25 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 22.60 Bil | -1.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 23.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 16.30 Bil | -1.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 16.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Earnings (Loss) Per Share Attributable to Intel—Diluted | Reported | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 331.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.08 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 15.80 Bil | 16.30 Bil | 16.80 Bil | 14.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 14.30 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 6.48 Bil | 6.76 Bil | 7.06 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| Q3 2026 Gross margin | Reported | 41.0% | 41.5% | 42.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 37.5% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Tax Rate | Reported | 1.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP operating expenses | Reported | 23.00 Bil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 22.70 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expenses | Reported | 16.50 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 16.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Earnings (Loss) Per Share Attributable to Intel—Diluted | Reported | 0.08 | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 13.80 Bil | 14.30 Bil | 14.80 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 5.17 Bil | 5.36 Bil | 5.55 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| Q2 2026 Gross margin | Reported | 37.5% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Tax Rate | Reported | 4.0% | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP operating expenses | Reported | 22.70 Bil | 24.7% | Raised | Guidance: 18.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expenses | Reported | 16.50 Bil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 16.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 11.70 Bil | 12.20 Bil | 12.70 Bil | -8.3% | Lower New | Actual: 13.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 EPS | Reported | -0.21 | 50.0% | Lower New | Actual: -0.14 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 0 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 18.20 Bil | -4.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 19.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 16.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/14/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tan, Lip BU | CEO | by Family Trust | Buy | 8142026 | 95.00 | 105,263 | 9,999,985 | 124,893,555 | Form |
| 2 | Chandrasekaran, Nagasubramaniyan | EVP, CT & Ops Off, GM Foundry | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 118.28 | 21,024 | 2,486,698 | 24,347,969 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 99.53 | 40,256 | 4,006,519 | 10,457,894 | Form |
| 4 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 49.05 | 20,000 | 981,000 | 5,545,593 | Form |
| 5 | Zinsner, David | EVP, CFO | Direct | Buy | 1272026 | 42.50 | 5,882 | 249,985 | 10,514,160 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tan, Lip BU | CEO | by Family Trust | Buy | 8142026 | 95.00 | 105,263 | 9,999,985 | 124,893,555 | Form |
| 2 | Chandrasekaran, Nagasubramaniyan | EVP, CT & Ops Off, GM Foundry | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 118.28 | 21,024 | 2,486,698 | 24,347,969 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 99.53 | 40,256 | 4,006,519 | 10,457,894 | Form |
| 4 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 49.05 | 20,000 | 981,000 | 5,545,593 | Form |
| 5 | Zinsner, David | EVP, CFO | Direct | Buy | 1272026 | 42.50 | 5,882 | 249,985 | 10,514,160 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 1, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia Corp | $9.5 Bil | 51.6% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $3.8 Bil | 33.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $41.9 Mil | 16.7% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $94.7 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.7 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $5.1 Mil | 1.9% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 1.7% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $5.7 Mil | 0.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 0.4% | 28 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | ADD +20234300.0% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 0.4% | 28 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $22.9 Mil | 2.2% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SHANDA ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS Ltd | $18.4 Mil | 0.9% | 10 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia Corp | $9.5 Bil | 51.6% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $3.8 Bil | 33.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $94.7 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $41.9 Mil | 16.7% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.7 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | ADD +20234300.0% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 1.7% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $5.7 Mil | 0.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
INTC Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Intel's Data Center and AI business is experiencing explosive growth, with revenue up 78% year-over-year. However, this strength is completely offset by a severe decline in the PC market, a major operational disruption, and a significant guidance cut that undermines confidence in execution. Conviction remains limited until the PC business stabilizes and management restores its forecasting credibility.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Vertically Integrated Manufacturer(Units Sold_DCAI * ASP_DCAI) + (Units Sold_CCPG * ASP_CCPG) + Foundry & Other Revenue Mix shift towards high-margin Data Center & AI (DCAI) products and successful execution on new process nodes to lower manufacturing costs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a difficult transition where the Data Center segment's powerful growth is currently insufficient to offset deep weakness elsewhere.
- Data Center (DCAI) segment revenue grew 78% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- Management projects the server CPU market could grow 5x to over $200 billion in five years.
- In Q3, server ASPs increased 54% year-over-year while server volume increased 10%.
- The company recently signed long-term agreements with cloud providers including Google and Oracle.
PRIMARY RISK
The core risk is that the PC business collapses faster than the Data Center grows, while the costly foundry transition burns cash without securing major external customers, leading to sustained share loss.
- PC (CCPG) segment revenue is guided to decline more than 20% sequentially in Q4 2026.
- The Intel Foundry segment recorded a $1.9 billion operating loss in Q3 2026.
- Q4 2026 EPS guidance was lowered by 67.7% to a new midpoint of $0.10.
- An accident at an Israel facility is expected to impact results through the first half of 2027.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) Segment Revenue Growth | 78% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The DCAI segment is showing strong and consistent acceleration, with year-over-year growth increasing for three consecutive quarters. Management attributes this to strong momentum and demand for server CPUs in AI infrastructure, with the latest quarter's growth being the strongest for the segment in 15 years. |
| Client Computing and Physical AI Group (CCPG) Segment Revenue Growth | -5% year-over-year in Q3 2026 - Decelerating | The CCPG segment, which is primarily the PC business, showed weakness in the latest quarter, which management attributes to industry-wide impacts from higher memory prices and limited IT budgets. The outlook is negative, with guidance for the segment to decline more than 20% sequentially in Q4. |
| Latest-Quarter Revenue Growth (YoY) | 20.9% (Q3 2026) | This indicates the year-over-year growth rate of the company's total revenue in the most recent reported quarter, reflecting overall business momentum. |
| Prior-Quarter Revenue Growth (YoY) | 25.4% (Q2 2026) | This provides a sequential comparison point for the latest quarter's growth, indicating whether momentum is accelerating or decelerating. In this case, growth has decelerated. |
| DCAI Segment Revenue Growth (YoY) | 78% (Q3 2026) | This measures the growth of the key Data Center and AI segment, which is the company's primary growth engine, driven by AI infrastructure demand. |
AI Growth Engine vs. PC Anchor and Foundry Burn
BULL VIEW
The 78% growth in the Data Center segment is the primary signal, tapping a massive market expansion that will eventually dwarf the cyclical PC weakness and fund the strategic foundry pivot.
CORE TENSION
Can 78% YoY Data Center growth offset a PC business guided to fall over 20% sequentially, a combination the market punished with a -31% stock drop?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest guidance cut and severe market reaction indicate that the negative forces of PC decline and operational risk are currently overwhelming the data center momentum.
BEAR VIEW
The PC business decline (guided down >20% sequentially) and the $1.9 billion quarterly foundry loss are an anchor that the Data Center segment cannot lift alone, especially amid operational stumbles.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
12/9/2026 | Data Center Supply Constraints Watch: Peer reports from Broadcom or Micron for commentary on substrate and component availability, impacting Intel's ability to meet server demand. |
12/15/2026 | Micron Earnings Report Watch: Peer Micron Technology is scheduled to report earnings, offering insights into memory pricing and availability which is impacting the PC market. |
1/20/2027 | Israel Facility Disruption Impact Watch: Quantification of the full financial impact, duration of disruption, and any changes to the guided Q4 hit. |
1/20/2027 | Worsening PC Market Weakness Watch: Updates on PC TAM, OEM inventory management, and the impact of memory prices on the CCPG segment's performance. |
1/20/2027 | Next Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
No set date | Mounting Legal Scrutiny Watch: Filings of any official lawsuits, SEC inquiries, or further details regarding the nature of the fraud investigation. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-30 | Israel Facility Accident Details: In mid-October 2026, an accident at the manufacturing facility in Kiryat Gat, Israel resulted in employee casualties and halted manufacturing operations for approximately two weeks. | -28.6% $92.07 -> $65.76 |
2026-10-29 | Q3 Earnings and Guidance Cut Details: On October 29, 2026, the company reported Q3 results and issued new guidance for Q4, lowering revenue by -4.9% and EPS by -67.7%. The stock reacted -31.0% over two days. | -31.2% $95.53 -> $65.76 |
2026-10-26 | Classiq Acquisition Announced Details: On October 26, 2026, the company announced a definitive agreement to acquire Classiq Technologies Ltd. for approximately $1.9 billion, plus up to $350 million of contingent consideration. | +7.8% $86.96 -> $93.74 |
2026-09-08 | Foundry Collaboration with ASML Details: On September 8, 2026, Intel Foundry and ASML announced a collaboration to accelerate industry readiness for High NA EUV technology. | +10.9% $95.80 -> $106.24 |
2026-08-11 | Upsized and Priced Stock Offering Details: On August 11, 2026, the company announced the pricing of an upsized public offering of 210,526,315 shares at $95 per share, for gross proceeds of approximately $20 billion. | +3.5% $97.52 -> $100.95 |
2026-08-10 | Proposed Common Stock Offering Details: The company announced a proposed $15 billion common stock offering on August 10, 2026, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes and growth opportunities. | -3.9% $101.65 -> $97.71 |
2026-07-23 | Q2 Earnings Report and Reaction Details: The company reported Q2 2026 earnings on July 23, 2026. The two-day stock reaction around the call was -10.0% versus -1.0% for the S&P 500. | -10.0% $102.62 -> $92.32 |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: INTC trades at roughly 63% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (6.2x the market). A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
Focused Share GainerAMD offers a more focused investment in gaining share in the PC and data center markets without the capital intensity and execution risk of building a foundry business. Its gross margins are substantially higher.
NVDA - NVIDIA
Dominant AI PlatformNVIDIA provides pure-play exposure to the dominant, full-stack AI ecosystem, from chips to software. It has vastly superior growth and profitability, capturing the majority of the AI infrastructure market.
Intel is a tale of two businesses: a booming, supply-constrained Data Center/AI franchise riding the AI wave, and a declining PC business facing market headwinds, all while funding a capital-intensive, high-risk transformation into a foundry services provider.
Intel is capitalizing on massive AI-driven demand for its data center CPUs, where it is supply-constrained and enjoys pricing power. However, this strength is offset by a weak PC market and significant operational challenges, including supply chain shortages and a recent factory accident. The company is simultaneously investing heavily to build a foundry business, which is currently incurring substantial losses, making overall execution across product roadmaps and manufacturing a critical risk.
News of securing long-term agreements with major cloud providers for data center CPUs, evidence of market share gains in servers, or the announcement of a major external customer for Intel Foundry's 14A node.
Further delays in the product or process technology roadmaps, continued market share losses to competitors in the data center segment, or an inability to resolve manufacturing and supply chain constraints.
Short-term fluctuations in the PC market that do not alter the long-term trajectory, or news of minor legal disputes such as the fraud investigation mentioned in an October press report.
Repricing Catalyst
The recent sharp stock decline following the Q3 earnings report was driven by a significant downward revision of Q4 revenue and EPS guidance, caused by the Israel factory incident and worsening PC market trends.
Client Computing and Physical AI Group (CCPG)
$56.6B TTM (59% of Total) · 30% MarginWhat It Is
This segment delivers platforms and processors that power personal computers (PCs) and edge devices for consumer and commercial markets, including retail, industrial robotics, and AI ecosystems at the edge.
Who Pays & How
PC manufacturers (OEMs) and commercial enterprises pay for these processors to build and deploy computers and edge devices, chosen for performance, connectivity, and user experience features.
Competition
Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI)
$33.3B TTM (35% of Total) · 27% MarginWhat It Is
This segment sells workload-optimized solutions for data centers, including CPUs, AI accelerators, and purpose-built silicon, to cloud service providers, enterprises, and telecommunication companies.
Who Pays & How
Hyperscalers and enterprises pay for these products to build out AI and traditional data center infrastructure, seeking performance and scalability for cloud and high-performance computing (HPC) environments.
Competition
Intel Foundry
$34.4B TTM (36% of Total) · -50% MarginWhat It Is
This segment provides semiconductor manufacturing services, including wafer fabrication and advanced packaging, primarily to Intel's internal product segments and, to a lesser extent, external customers.
Who Pays & How
Intel's product divisions are the primary customers, paying for manufacturing capacity. External fabless semiconductor companies pay for access to leading-edge process technology and manufacturing capacity, particularly in the U.S.
Competition
All Other
$5.5B TTM (6% of Total) · 13% MarginWhat It Is
This category includes results from non-reportable segments like the Mobileye business (driving assistance and self-driving solutions) and historical results from divested businesses like Altera.
Who Pays & How
Customers in the automotive and other industries pay for these specialized products and solutions.
Competition
Intel — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Semiconductors Resources |
| EE Times |
| Semiconductor Engineering |
| Semiconductor Digest |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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