Analog Devices (ADI)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $278.74 | Market Cap: $136.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Analog Devices (ADI)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $278.74Market Cap: $136.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.3 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -2.7% | Key risksADI key risks include [1] reduced sales and profitability from the current inventory rationalization impacting its key industrial and automotive sectors. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -2.7% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4% |
| Key risksADI key risks include [1] reduced sales and profitability from the current inventory rationalization impacting its key industrial and automotive sectors. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Analog Devices (ADI) experienced an approximate 8.7% stock movement during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors: **1. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Positive Outlook.** Analog Devices reported robust fiscal fourth quarter 2025 results on November 25, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company announced revenues of $3.08 billion, exceeding estimates, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.26, also beating Street estimates. Furthermore, ADI provided an optimistic revenue forecast of approximately $3.1 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, indicating continued growth. **2. Growth in Key End Markets, Particularly Industrial and AI/Data Center.** The company highlighted strong and broad-based growth across its end markets, with significant performance in the industrial sector, which is identified as its most profitable segment. Analog Devices also reported a record year for its data center business, attributed to increased AI capital expenditure spending, underscoring its growing exposure and benefit from artificial intelligence trends. **3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Upgrades.** Following the strong quarterly performance and positive outlook, numerous financial analysts raised their price targets and reiterated favorable ratings for ADI. For example, Morgan Stanley increased its price target to $293 from $288 on November 26, 2025, maintaining an Overweight rating. Similarly, UBS raised its price target to $320 from $280 on December 8, 2025, while maintaining a Buy rating. Other firms, including BofA Securities, Wolfe Research, and Benchmark, also increased their price targets for the stock during this period. **4. Substantial Shareholder Returns.** Analog Devices demonstrated a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders throughout fiscal year 2025, distributing 96% of its free cash flow through $2.2 billion in share repurchases and $1.9 billion in dividends. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.99 per share. Share repurchases between August and November 2025 amounted to approximately $641.51 million. **5. Strategic Product Innovations and Certifications.** Analog Devices bolstered its product portfolio and market position with key innovations. On November 3, 2025, the company launched CodeFusion Studio 2.0, designed to simplify and accelerate embedded AI development. Additionally, on December 17, 2025, ADI's industrial Ethernet Time-Sensitive Networking (TSN) switch ICs achieved CC-Link IE TSN Compliance Certification, a significant step forward for integration in smart factory environments.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADI Return | 27% | 21% | -5% | 23% | 9% | 33% | 161% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 51% | -16% | 45% | 11% | 13% | 210% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADI Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 70% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADI Max Drawdown | -30% | -2% | -21% | -4% | -7% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -2% | -32% | -4% | -18% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TXN, NXPI, MCHP, ON, AVGO. See ADI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 802 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MU, KLAC, TXN, DIOD, AMBQ
In The Past
Analog Devices's stock fell -27.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -27.6% loss requires a 38.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | ADI | Analog Devices | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 19.9% | 23.4% | -3.6% |
| 06302022 | ADI | Analog Devices | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.3% | 35.9% | -6.0% |
| 10312018 | ADI | Analog Devices | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 38.5% | 30.1% | -3.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | ADI | Analog Devices | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 19.9% | 23.4% | -3.6% |
| 06302022 | ADI | Analog Devices | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.3% | 35.9% | -6.0% |
| 10312018 | ADI | Analog Devices | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 38.5% | 30.1% | -3.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Analog Devices
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 198.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 88.5 |
| Rev LTM | 11,532 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,002 |
| FCF LTM | 1,925 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,031 |
| CFO LTM | 3,566 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,797 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 88.5 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| P/EBIT | 41.7 |
| P/E | 43.2 |
| P/CFO | 24.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/25/2025 | 5.3% | 16.2% | |
| 8/20/2025 | 6.3% | 10.9% | 8.5% |
| 5/22/2025 | -4.6% | -2.9% | 4.4% |
| 2/19/2025 | 9.7% | 6.8% | -4.2% |
| 11/26/2024 | -2.0% | -0.9% | -2.1% |
| 8/21/2024 | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% |
| 5/22/2024 | 10.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% |
| 2/21/2024 | 2.3% | -0.2% | 3.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -1.7% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 10.9% | 16.2% | 16.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -8.2% | -30.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 11252025 | 10-K 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8202025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5222025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2192025 | 10-Q 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11262024 | 10-K 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8212024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5222024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2212024 | 10-Q 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-K 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8232023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2152023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11222022 | 10-K 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8172022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5182022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2162022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |