Tearsheet

Penguin Solutions (PENG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.48 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors

Penguin Solutions (PENG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.48
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, AI Software Platforms, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.2%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, AI Software Platforms, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PENG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the approximate -11% movement in Penguin Solutions (PENG) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: 1. Fiscal Q4 2025 Revenue Miss: Penguin Solutions reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on October 7, 2025, with net sales of $338 million. This figure, while representing a 9% year-over-year increase, fell slightly short of the consensus analyst estimate of $342.5 million.

2. Lower Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue Guidance: The company's management provided guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting 6% year-over-year revenue growth. This outlook was below the 10% growth that analysts had previously modeled, contributing to investor concern.

3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PENG Return-1%89%-58%27%1%8%9%
Peers Return46%17%-5%13%-4%5%85%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PENG Win Rate58%67%25%50%75%60% 
Peers Win Rate52%42%32%42%35%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PENG Max Drawdown-54%-3%-64%-12%-21%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-12%-30%-12%-16%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPENGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven124.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven293 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-68.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven219.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven677 days120 days

Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ


In The Past

Penguin Solutions's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Penguin Solutions (PENG)

Better Bets than Penguin Solutions (PENG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PENG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Penguin Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PENGQCOMFSLRSLABPOWIAMBQMedian
NamePenguin .Qualcomm First So.Silicon .Power In.Ambiq Mi. 
Mkt Price21.48174.18256.06137.6836.1927.5386.94
Mkt Cap1.1187.827.54.52.0-4.5
Rev LTM1,36944,2844,343743446691,056
Op Inc LTM7312,3941,362-965-3839
FCF LTM10012,820-9437480-2177
FCF 3Y Avg7411,277-557-165-65
CFO LTM10914,01229997100-16105
CFO 3Y Avg9712,5047621985-97

Growth & Margins

PENGQCOMFSLRSLABPOWIAMBQMedian
NamePenguin .Qualcomm First So.Silicon .Power In.Ambiq Mi. 
Rev Chg LTM16.9%13.7%15.4%47.1%10.5%-15.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.5%1.2%20.6%-0.7%-12.3%-0.5%
Rev Chg Q8.6%10.0%8.6%23.8%2.7%-8.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%2.4%2.0%5.6%0.7%-2.0%
Op Mgn LTM5.4%28.0%31.3%-12.9%1.2%-54.6%3.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%25.9%22.9%-15.6%5.4%-5.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%-0.2%-0.9%3.2%-3.5%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM8.0%31.6%6.9%13.1%22.5%-22.6%10.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.3%31.5%21.7%2.8%19.4%-19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM7.3%28.9%-21.7%9.9%17.9%-29.7%8.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%28.4%-14.8%0.1%14.8%-5.6%

Valuation

PENGQCOMFSLRSLABPOWIAMBQMedian
NamePenguin .Qualcomm First So.Silicon .Power In.Ambiq Mi. 
Mkt Cap1.1187.827.54.52.0-4.5
P/S1.04.05.45.85.0-5.0
P/EBIT24.613.517.1-52.3420.2-17.1
P/E54.432.418.8-50.0125.0-32.4
P/CFO12.712.879.144.222.4-22.4
Total Yield1.8%5.2%5.3%-2.0%2.9%-2.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.1%0.0%0.0%2.1%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.9%7.0%-2.6%-0.1%2.2%-2.2%
D/E0.40.10.00.00.0-0.0
Net D/E0.10.0-0.0-0.1-0.1--0.0

Returns

PENGQCOMFSLRSLABPOWIAMBQMedian
NamePenguin .Qualcomm First So.Silicon .Power In.Ambiq Mi. 
1M Rtn-5.0%-3.6%-3.6%7.6%-12.5%-6.0%-4.3%
3M Rtn-9.8%10.7%27.1%5.1%-17.1%-28.3%-2.4%
6M Rtn12.8%18.2%60.2%9.9%-32.9%-12.8%
12M Rtn10.3%9.5%23.4%22.7%-44.2%-10.3%
3Y Rtn27.7%47.6%52.1%-2.8%-52.4%-27.7%
1M Excs Rtn-4.9%-3.6%-3.6%7.6%-12.5%-6.0%-4.3%
3M Excs Rtn-18.4%3.7%21.5%-3.3%-23.9%-37.5%-10.9%
6M Excs Rtn-2.0%3.5%45.5%-4.9%-47.7%--2.0%
12M Excs Rtn4.9%-1.2%14.9%10.9%-57.3%-4.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-41.7%-16.6%-18.2%-72.8%-123.3%--41.7%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,014,556
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.4%
Average Daily Volume1,041,179
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.78
Basic Shares Quantity52,551,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251021202510-K 8/29/2025
5312025708202510-Q 5/30/2025
2282025402202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024108202510-Q 11/29/2024
83120241024202410-K 8/30/2024
5312024709202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024409202410-Q 3/1/2024
11302023109202410-Q 12/1/2023
83120231020202310-K 8/25/2023
5312023630202310-Q 5/26/2023
2282023404202310-Q 2/24/2023
11302022103202310-Q 11/25/2022
83120221014202210-K 8/26/2022
5312022630202210-Q 5/27/2022
2282022405202210-Q 2/25/2022
11302021104202210-Q 11/26/2021