Tearsheet

Penguin Solutions (PENG)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $18.4 | Market Cap: $966.9 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors

Penguin Solutions (PENG)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $18.4
Market Cap: $966.9 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, AI Software Platforms, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
 
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 10%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, AI Software Platforms, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PENG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The -21.3% movement in Penguin Solutions (PENG) stock from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors.

1. Q4 Fiscal 2025 Revenue Miss: The company's reported revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 was $338 million, which slightly missed analyst expectations of $339 million.

2. Softer Fiscal 2026 Guidance: Penguin Solutions provided a fiscal year 2026 net sales growth outlook of 6% ±10%, a significant reduction compared to its 17% growth outlook for fiscal 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PENG Return-1%89%-58%27%1%-3%-2%
Peers Return46%17%-5%13%-4%0%78%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PENG Win Rate58%67%25%50%75%60% 
Peers Win Rate52%42%32%42%35%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PENG Max Drawdown-54%-3%-64%-12%-21%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-12%-30%-12%-16%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPENGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven124.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven293 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-68.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven219.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven677 days120 days

Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ


In The Past

Penguin Solutions's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Penguin Solutions (PENG)

Better Bets than Penguin Solutions (PENG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PENG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.7%-10.7%-10.7%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-3.5%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.7%-2.7%-3.9%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.3%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.7%-10.7%-10.7%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-3.5%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.7%-2.7%-3.9%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.3%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Penguin Solutions

Financials

PENGQCOMFSLRSLABPOWIAMBQMedian
NamePenguin .Qualcomm First So.Silicon .Power In.Ambiq Mi. 
Mkt Price18.56166.75253.54117.4232.2924.2674.86
Mkt Cap1.0179.827.23.91.8-3.9
Rev LTM1,36944,2844,343743446691,056
Op Inc LTM7312,3941,362-965-3839
FCF LTM10012,820-9437480-2177
FCF 3Y Avg7411,277-557-165-65
CFO LTM10914,01229997100-16105
CFO 3Y Avg9712,5047621985-97

Growth & Margins

PENGQCOMFSLRSLABPOWIAMBQMedian
NamePenguin .Qualcomm First So.Silicon .Power In.Ambiq Mi. 
Rev Chg LTM16.9%13.7%15.4%47.1%10.5%-15.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.5%1.2%20.6%-0.7%-12.3%-0.5%
Rev Chg Q8.6%10.0%8.6%23.8%2.7%-8.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%2.4%2.0%5.6%0.7%-2.0%
Op Mgn LTM5.4%28.0%31.3%-12.9%1.2%-54.6%3.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%25.9%22.9%-15.6%5.4%-5.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%-0.2%-0.9%3.2%-3.5%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM8.0%31.6%6.9%13.1%22.5%-22.6%10.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.3%31.5%21.7%2.8%19.4%-19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM7.3%28.9%-21.7%9.9%17.9%-29.7%8.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%28.4%-14.8%0.1%14.8%-5.6%

Valuation

PENGQCOMFSLRSLABPOWIAMBQMedian
NamePenguin .Qualcomm First So.Silicon .Power In.Ambiq Mi. 
Mkt Cap1.0179.827.23.91.8-3.9
P/S0.74.16.35.24.0-4.1
P/EBIT17.413.519.7-46.9337.5-17.4
P/E38.432.421.6-44.8100.4-32.4
P/CFO8.912.891.039.518.0-18.0
Total Yield2.6%5.2%4.6%-2.2%3.6%-3.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.1%0.0%0.0%2.6%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.9%7.0%-2.6%-0.1%2.2%-2.2%
D/E0.50.10.00.00.0-0.0
Net D/E0.10.0-0.0-0.1-0.1--0.0

Returns

PENGQCOMFSLRSLABPOWIAMBQMedian
NamePenguin .Qualcomm First So.Silicon .Power In.Ambiq Mi. 
1M Rtn-14.6%2.0%9.4%-13.7%-29.0%-20.1%-14.2%
3M Rtn-24.9%5.5%15.6%-11.2%-29.9%-37.1%-18.1%
6M Rtn-1.0%9.8%53.7%-8.1%-38.1%--1.0%
12M Rtn13.0%6.2%33.1%16.9%-45.4%-13.0%
3Y Rtn9.7%44.3%52.2%-16.5%-57.5%-9.7%
1M Excs Rtn-14.8%1.9%9.2%-13.9%-29.1%-20.2%-14.3%
3M Excs Rtn-27.0%3.3%16.1%-15.5%-34.3%-36.8%-21.2%
6M Excs Rtn-12.8%-2.1%41.8%-20.0%-49.9%--12.8%
12M Excs Rtn-3.1%-5.2%27.7%-0.6%-59.7%--3.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-52.6%-20.6%-7.2%-83.9%-125.1%--52.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,872,903
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-9.2%
Average Daily Volume920,677
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.38
Basic Shares Quantity52,551,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.2%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/7/2025-16.0%-16.4%-17.8%
7/8/202510.6%17.2%8.1%
4/2/2025-10.3%-4.8%-3.3%
1/8/20257.9%5.2%10.9%
10/15/2024-23.5%-23.6%-16.1%
7/9/202426.3%18.3%-19.5%
4/9/2024-24.1%-24.9%-26.2%
10/12/2023-44.4%-39.5%-34.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11119
# Negative111113
Median Positive8.9%9.5%8.1%
Median Negative-15.4%-14.2%-16.1%
Max Positive26.3%18.6%31.0%
Max Negative-44.4%-39.5%-34.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251021202510-K 8/29/2025
5312025708202510-Q 5/30/2025
2282025402202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024108202510-Q 11/29/2024
83120241024202410-K 8/30/2024
5312024709202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024409202410-Q 3/1/2024
11302023109202410-Q 12/1/2023
83120231020202310-K 8/25/2023
5312023630202310-Q 5/26/2023
2282023404202310-Q 2/24/2023
11302022103202310-Q 11/25/2022
83120221014202210-K 8/26/2022
5312022630202210-Q 5/27/2022
2282022405202210-Q 2/25/2022
11302021104202210-Q 11/26/2021

Insider Activity

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