Tearsheet

Penguin Solutions (PENG)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $19.69 | Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors

Penguin Solutions (PENG)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $19.69
Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, AI Software Platforms, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Key risks
PENG key risks include [1] significant margin compression from intense competition in the AI infrastructure market, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.7%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, AI Software Platforms, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
5 Key risks
PENG key risks include [1] significant margin compression from intense competition in the AI infrastructure market, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PENG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Penguin Solutions (PENG) stock moved by -18.5% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025: 1. 1. Revenue Miss in Q4 Fiscal 2025: Penguin Solutions reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue of $337.9 million, which fell slightly short of analyst consensus estimates of $339 million to $342.1 million. This revenue miss, despite a year-over-year increase, contributed to investor concerns. 2. 2. Disappointing Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance: The company's guidance for fiscal year 2026, including adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.75-$2.25 (midpoint $2.00) and projected revenue growth of 6% year-over-year (±10%), came in below Wall Street's consensus estimates of $2.12 EPS and $1.495 billion in revenue. This weak financial outlook was a primary concern for investors. 3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PENG Return-1%89%-58%27%1%2%3%
Peers Return55%62%-8%144%49%23%930%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PENG Win Rate58%67%25%50%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%60%42%67%57%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PENG Max Drawdown-54%-3%-64%-12%-21%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-8%-41%-8%-15%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SMCI, DELL, HPE, NVDA, AMD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPENGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven124.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven293 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-68.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven219.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven677 days120 days

Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, GLSA


In The Past

Penguin Solutions's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Penguin Solutions (PENG)

Better Bets than Penguin Solutions (PENG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PENG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
15.3%15.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.4%8.4%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
15.3%15.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.4%8.4%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Penguin Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PENGSMCIDELLHPENVDAAMDMedian
NamePenguin .Super Mi.Dell Tec.Hewlett .NVIDIA Advanced. 
Mkt Price19.6731.11126.4224.43180.99213.4378.77
Mkt Cap1.018.584.832.64,402.9347.058.7
Rev LTM1,36921,053104,09034,296187,14232,02733,162
Op Inc LTM739266,9241,644110,1222,9992,322
FCF LTM1002184,44962777,3245,4482,538
FCF 3Y Avg74-5684,7811,40050,4622,7752,088
CFO LTM1093337,0962,91983,1596,4084,664
CFO 3Y Avg97-4657,4743,89653,6523,4613,679

Growth & Margins

PENGSMCIDELLHPENVDAAMDMedian
NamePenguin .Super Mi.Dell Tec.Hewlett .NVIDIA Advanced. 
Rev Chg LTM16.9%11.9%10.8%13.8%65.2%31.8%15.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.5%63.1%0.2%6.5%91.6%12.9%9.7%
Rev Chg Q8.6%-15.5%10.8%14.4%62.5%35.6%12.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%-4.2%2.6%3.7%13.3%8.2%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM5.4%4.4%6.7%4.8%58.8%9.4%6.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%7.4%6.1%7.2%55.8%4.9%6.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%-1.3%0.2%-1.4%0.8%1.1%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM8.0%1.6%6.8%8.5%44.4%20.0%8.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.3%-0.8%7.8%12.7%46.2%12.4%10.1%
FCF/Rev LTM7.3%1.0%4.3%1.8%41.3%17.0%5.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%-1.4%5.0%4.6%43.4%9.8%5.3%

Valuation

PENGSMCIDELLHPENVDAAMDMedian
NamePenguin .Super Mi.Dell Tec.Hewlett .NVIDIA Advanced. 
Mkt Cap1.018.584.832.64,402.9347.058.7
P/S0.80.90.80.923.510.80.9
P/EBIT18.418.710.719.837.8113.119.3
P/E40.723.416.3571.344.4105.042.5
P/CFO9.555.612.011.252.954.232.5
Total Yield2.5%4.3%7.8%2.3%2.3%1.0%2.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.7%2.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.9%-1.8%7.4%5.5%1.7%1.2%3.6%
D/E0.50.30.40.70.00.00.3
Net D/E0.10.00.30.6-0.0-0.00.1

Returns

PENGSMCIDELLHPENVDAAMDMedian
NamePenguin .Super Mi.Dell Tec.Hewlett .NVIDIA Advanced. 
1M Rtn12.0%-3.4%3.2%19.8%1.2%4.7%4.0%
3M Rtn-28.6%-32.1%-3.8%-1.7%2.5%35.6%-2.7%
6M Rtn0.3%-31.4%6.7%37.6%25.8%66.4%16.3%
12M Rtn6.3%-1.5%11.2%16.1%34.4%79.0%13.6%
3Y Rtn24.6%279.4%243.9%69.1%1,081.1%234.2%239.0%
1M Excs Rtn7.2%-10.7%3.0%16.4%-5.9%-7.4%-1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-31.6%-35.7%-8.6%-4.4%-3.5%31.5%-6.5%
6M Excs Rtn-13.0%-37.4%-5.5%25.3%12.1%51.3%3.3%
12M Excs Rtn-14.6%-20.9%-4.1%4.2%25.9%57.8%0.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-54.7%174.5%151.9%-7.0%854.0%138.6%145.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2025202420232022
Advanced Computing750441345265
Integrated Memory443552932857
Optimized LED248403225 
Total1,4411,3961,5011,122


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Advanced Computing111493312
Integrated Memory74799272
Other-2-1-2-7
Flow through of inventory step up-30-7 
Optimized LED-54936 
Cost of sales-related restructuring-70  
Restructuring charges-7-0  
Impairment of goodwill-190  
Diligence, acquisition and integration expense-21-7-5 
Change in fair value of contingent consideration-29-41-32 
Share-based compensation expense-39-37-34-19
Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles-45-24-20-14
Out of period import tax expense  -4 
Restructure and integration expense   -3
Total9675541


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,039,882
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.4%
Average Daily Volume1,402,223
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.31
Basic Shares Quantity52,551,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/7/2025-16.0%-16.4%-17.8%
7/8/202510.6%17.2%8.1%
4/2/2025-10.3%-4.8%-3.3%
1/8/20257.9%5.2%10.9%
10/15/2024-23.5%-23.6%-16.1%
7/9/202426.3%18.3%-19.5%
4/9/2024-24.1%-24.9%-26.2%
10/12/2023-44.4%-39.5%-34.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11119
# Negative111113
Median Positive8.9%9.5%8.1%
Median Negative-15.4%-14.2%-16.1%
Max Positive26.3%18.6%31.0%
Max Negative-44.4%-39.5%-34.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251021202510-K 8/29/2025
5312025708202510-Q 5/30/2025
2282025402202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024108202510-Q 11/29/2024
83120241024202410-K 8/30/2024
5312024709202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024409202410-Q 3/1/2024
11302023109202410-Q 12/1/2023
83120231020202310-K 8/25/2023
5312023630202310-Q 5/26/2023
2282023404202310-Q 2/24/2023
11302022103202310-Q 11/25/2022
83120221014202210-K 8/26/2022
5312022630202210-Q 5/27/2022
2282022405202210-Q 2/25/2022
11302021104202210-Q 11/26/2021