Texas Instruments (TXN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $175.8 | Market Cap: $159.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Texas Instruments (TXN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $175.8Market Cap: $159.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, Dividend Yield is 3.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 35% | Key risksTXN key risks include [1] a massive capital expenditure program to build out manufacturing capacity, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 6.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, Dividend Yield is 3.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 6.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6% |
| Key risksTXN key risks include [1] a massive capital expenditure program to build out manufacturing capacity, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TXN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Weak Q4 2025 Outlook and Earnings Miss.
Texas Instruments projected a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts falling below market estimates. The company anticipated Q4 revenue between $4.22 billion and $4.58 billion, which was below the average analyst estimate of $4.51 billion. Additionally, its EPS forecast of $1.13 to $1.39 missed expectations of $1.41. This cautious guidance, following earlier soft profit forecasts and an 11% stock crash in July after Q2 2025 results and Q3 2025 forecasts disappointed analysts, sparked concerns among investors about the broader semiconductor market.
2. Weakening Demand Sentiment and Slow Recovery.
The company's Chief Financial Officer indicated in September 2025 that market sentiment had deteriorated in recent months, partly due to temporary strength from order pull-ins that subsequently led to weakness. The recovery in semiconductor demand was characterized as not "snapping back" as quickly as anticipated, with the automotive market specifically lagging in its recovery efforts.
3. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Analysts reacted to the cautious outlook and market conditions by downgrading ratings and reducing price targets for TXN stock. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Texas Instruments from 'Buy' to 'Sell' on December 15, 2025, and significantly lowered its price target from $200 to $156, a 22% decrease. This move followed earlier adjustments in October 2025 where several other firms, including Stifel, Susquehanna, Wells Fargo, and Rosenblatt, maintained their ratings but also reduced their price targets.
4. Operating Margin Compression and Restructuring Costs.
Texas Instruments experienced a compression in its operating margin, which fell to 35.1% from 37.4% in the year-ago quarter. This decline was attributed to rising depreciation expenses and reduced factory utilization, signaling significant cost pressures. The company is also undergoing operational restructuring, which includes closing fabrication plants, with these efforts expected to negatively impact near-term financial results.
5. Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Customer "Wait and See" Approach.
Management noted that customers were adopting a "wait and see mode" due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and tariffs, which resulted in moderate factory loadings and limited near-term upside for the company. Despite efficient inventory management, the overall recovery in the semiconductor industry remains slow, exacerbated by a lingering oversupply of analog chips.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TXN Return | 32% | 18% | -10% | 6% | 13% | -2% | 64% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 51% | -15% | 48% | 10% | 20% | 237% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TXN Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 40% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TXN Max Drawdown | -27% | -1% | -20% | -12% | -7% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -2% | -32% | -3% | -18% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADI, NXPI, MCHP, ON, AVGO. See TXN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TXN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 184.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,606 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AVGO, ADI, MCHP, GLSA, SSTR
In The Past
Texas Instruments's stock fell -30.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/21/2021. A -30.2% loss requires a 43.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TXN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.1% | 8.1% | -5.0% |
| 08312022 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 4.8% | -10.2% |
| 02282022 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.1% | 3.8% | -12.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.1% | 8.1% | -5.0% |
| 08312022 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 4.8% | -10.2% |
| 02282022 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.1% | 3.8% | -12.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Texas Instruments
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 198.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 88.4 |
| Rev LTM | 11,532 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,002 |
| FCF LTM | 1,925 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,031 |
| CFO LTM | 3,566 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,797 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 88.4 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| P/EBIT | 41.7 |
| P/E | 43.2 |
| P/CFO | 24.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog | 13,040 | 15,359 | 14,050 | 10,886 | 10,223 |
| Embedded Processing | 3,368 | 3,261 | 3,049 | 2,570 | 2,943 |
| Other | 1,111 | 1,408 | 1,245 | 1,005 | 1,217 |
| Total | 17,519 | 20,028 | 18,344 | 14,461 | 14,383 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog | 5,821 | 8,359 | 7,393 | 4,912 | 4,477 |
| Embedded Processing | 1,008 | 1,253 | 1,174 | 743 | 907 |
| Other | 502 | 528 | 393 | 239 | 339 |
| Total | 7,331 | 10,140 | 8,960 | 5,894 | 5,723 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2025 | -5.6% | -6.9% | -12.4% |
| 7/22/2025 | -13.3% | -11.0% | -5.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 6.6% | 6.1% | 19.5% |
| 1/23/2025 | -7.5% | -7.6% | 0.8% |
| 10/22/2024 | 4.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% |
| 7/23/2024 | -0.0% | 1.4% | 5.8% |
| 4/23/2024 | 5.6% | 6.6% | 23.3% |
| 1/23/2024 | -2.4% | -6.3% | -4.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 16 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.9% | -2.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.7% | 10.9% | 23.3% |
| Max Negative | -13.3% | -11.0% | -12.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |