Texas Instruments (TXN)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $279.41 | Market Cap: $254.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Texas Instruments (TXN)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $279.41Market Cap: $254.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 7.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1% Key risksTXN key risks include [1] a massive capital expenditure program to build out manufacturing capacity, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 7.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1% |
| Key risksTXN key risks include [1] a massive capital expenditure program to build out manufacturing capacity, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Texas Instruments (TXN) stock has gained about 50% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance: Texas Instruments reported robust results for fiscal Q2 2026, with revenue climbing 23% year-over-year to $5.46 billion, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of approximately $5.24 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 52% year-over-year to $2.14, exceeding the consensus estimate of around $1.92 per share.
2. Strong and Broad-Based Demand Across Core End Markets: The company experienced accelerated growth driven by robust demand in its key end markets, particularly industrial, data center, and automotive. Analog revenue grew 26% year-over-year, while Embedded Processing revenue increased 16% in fiscal Q2 2026. Notably, data center revenue nearly doubled year-over-year and rose 20% sequentially, contributing significantly to operating margin expansion.
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Texas Instruments (TXN) stock has gained about 50% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance: Texas Instruments reported robust results for fiscal Q2 2026, with revenue climbing 23% year-over-year to $5.46 billion, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of approximately $5.24 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 52% year-over-year to $2.14, exceeding the consensus estimate of around $1.92 per share.
2. Strong and Broad-Based Demand Across Core End Markets: The company experienced accelerated growth driven by robust demand in its key end markets, particularly industrial, data center, and automotive. Analog revenue grew 26% year-over-year, while Embedded Processing revenue increased 16% in fiscal Q2 2026. Notably, data center revenue nearly doubled year-over-year and rose 20% sequentially, contributing significantly to operating margin expansion.
3. Optimistic Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance Exceeding Expectations: Texas Instruments provided strong guidance for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting revenue between $5.65 billion and $6.15 billion and earnings per share between $2.23 and $2.57. This outlook surpassed analyst estimates, signaling continued momentum and a broad-based recovery across its served markets.
4. Favorable Semiconductor Industry Trends and AI-Driven Growth: The broader semiconductor industry is experiencing substantial growth, with global sales projected to reach over $1.3 trillion to $1.5 trillion in 2026. This growth is heavily influenced by increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) processing, data centers, and automotive electronics. Texas Instruments, as a leading manufacturer of analog chips crucial for power management in AI servers and data centers, is well-positioned to benefit from these macroeconomic tailwinds.
5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets: Following the strong performance and guidance, multiple equity analysts raised their price targets for Texas Instruments' stock. For instance, Susquehanna increased its price target to $340 from $300 on July 21, 2026, while Keybanc raised its target from $390 to $400 and Evercore ISI Group moved its target from $316 to $330 after the Q2 earnings announcement. J.P. Morgan also elevated its price target to $340, reflecting increased confidence in the company's future prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.3% change in TXN stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 193.16 | 294.19 | 52.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,682 | 18,438 | 4.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.3% | 29.1% | 2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.1 | 49.8 | 41.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 909 | 909 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXN | 52.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 47.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.6% | 48.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 71.5% change in TXN stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 171.49 | 294.19 | 71.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,266 | 18,438 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.2% | 29.1% | -0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.9 | 49.8 | 61.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 909 | 909 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 71.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXN | 71.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.4% | 44.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 45.7% change in TXN stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 201.96 | 294.19 | 45.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,049 | 18,438 | 14.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.4% | 29.1% | -4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.7 | 49.8 | 32.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 910 | 909 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 45.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXN | 45.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 37.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.0% | 39.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 78.4% change in TXN stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 175.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 164.90 | 294.19 | 78.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,502 | 18,438 | -5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 42.3% | 29.1% | -31.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.1 | 49.8 | 175.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 907 | 909 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 78.4% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXN | 78.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 57.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 111.3% | 56.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TXN Return | 18% | -10% | 6% | 13% | -4% | 70% | 107% |
| Peers Return | 51% | -15% | 48% | 10% | 17% | 36% | 238% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TXN Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 67% | 40% | 50% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TXN Max Drawdown | -10% | -22% | -23% | -16% | -30% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -34% | -25% | -28% | -41% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ADI, NXPI, MCHP, ON, AVGO. See TXN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TXN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Texas Instruments's stock fell -25.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TXN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 630 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Texas Instruments's stock fell -25.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Texas Instruments (TXN)
Texas Instruments (TXN) is a global semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of integrated circuits to electronics designers and manufacturers. Essentially, they create the foundational electronic components that enable modern technology to function, specializing in chips that manage power and process signals crucial for various electronic systems.
The company operates primarily through two segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The Analog segment produces power management chips that regulate electricity in devices, along with signal chain products like amplifiers and data converters that sense and process real-world signals. The Embedded Processing segment focuses on microcontrollers, digital signal processors (DSPs), and applications processors, which act as the "brains" of electronic devices, performing computations and controlling various functions. Beyond these core segments, Texas Instruments also develops DLP products for high-definition images in projectors, as well as calculators and application-specific integrated circuits.
Texas Instruments serves a vast array of end markets globally. Its semiconductors are critical components for industries such as industrial automation, automotive electronics, personal electronics (like smartphones and computers), communications equipment, and enterprise systems. The company sells its products directly to customers, through a network of distributors, and via its website, providing essential building blocks for countless electronic products worldwide.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Texas Instruments (TXN):
- The 3M of semiconductors: Similar to how 3M makes a vast array of essential, often unseen components and materials used across countless industries, Texas Instruments provides a wide range of foundational microchips that power almost all modern electronic devices.
- The Intel for 'everything else' electronic: If Intel builds the main processing 'brains' for computers, Texas Instruments makes many of the essential 'nervous system' and power management chips that enable nearly every other electronic device, from cars and industrial equipment to personal gadgets.
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- Analog Power Products: Semiconductors designed to efficiently manage power requirements in various electronic systems.
- Analog Signal Chain Products: Semiconductors that sense, condition, and measure signals for processing and control in electronic devices.
- Microcontrollers (MCUs): Integrated circuits used for controlling specific functions within electronic equipment.
- Digital Signal Processors (DSPs): Specialized microprocessors optimized for rapid mathematical computations.
- Applications Processors: Advanced processors designed for specific computing activities in a wide range of devices.
- DLP Products: Digital micromirror devices primarily utilized in projectors to create high-definition images.
- Calculators: Handheld electronic devices used for performing mathematical computations.
- Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs): Custom-designed integrated circuits tailored for particular applications.
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Haviv Ilan, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Haviv Ilan became Chairman of the board in 2026 and President and Chief Executive Officer of Texas Instruments (TI) in 2023, having served on the company's board of directors since 2021. He began his career at TI in 1999 when the company acquired Butterfly, a wireless startup company he was involved with. Prior to becoming CEO, Ilan served as executive vice president and chief operating officer, overseeing TI's business and sales organizations, technology and manufacturing operations, and IT solutions. He holds bachelor's and master's degrees in electrical engineering from Tel Aviv University and an MBA from the Joint International Executive MBA Program at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management and Tel Aviv University's Leon Recanati Graduate School of Business Administration.
Rafael Lizardi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Rafael Lizardi is a Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Texas Instruments. He joined TI in 2001 and has held various leadership positions in finance and operations, including corporate controller. Prior to joining TI, he served five years as a captain in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Lizardi holds a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from The U.S. Military Academy at West Point and a Master of Business Administration from Stanford University. He is also a Certified Management Accountant.
Ahmad S. Bahai, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Ahmad S. Bahai serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer at Texas Instruments, where he is responsible for driving the company's technological vision and strategy, including overseeing research and development efforts. Before joining Texas Instruments, he co-founded Iospan Wireless Inc. His background also includes roles such as Chief Technology Officer at National Semiconductor and Co-Founder of Algorex Corporation. Dr. Bahai holds a Research Doctorate in Electrical and Electronics Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley, and a Master of Science from Imperial College London. He has also been a professor at both MIT and Stanford University.
Krunali Patel, Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer, Information Technology (IT) Solutions
Krunali Patel is the Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer of Texas Instruments, responsible for the Information Technology Solutions organization. She joined TI in 1996. Throughout her career at TI, which spans over two decades, she has held various roles, including Electrical Design Engineer and Vice President of Information Technology. Prior to her current role, Patel served as vice president of TI's design and manufacturing IT solutions organization, where she led the development and implementation of information technology strategies and roadmaps for manufacturing automation.
Amichai Ron, Senior Vice President, Embedded Processing and DLP Products
Amichai Ron is a Senior Vice President overseeing Embedded Processing and DLP Products at Texas Instruments.
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- The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry and fluctuations in demand across its key end markets (industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, and enterprise systems) pose a significant risk to Texas Instruments. Economic downturns or shifts in technology adoption within these markets can lead to reduced orders and revenue.
- Intense competition within the analog and embedded processing semiconductor markets, coupled with rapid technological advancements, presents a continuous risk of pricing pressure and product obsolescence. Texas Instruments must constantly innovate to maintain its competitive edge and market share.
- Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks, such as trade tensions and restrictions on technology transfer, could adversely impact Texas Instruments' manufacturing operations, raw material procurement, and ability to sell products in key international markets.
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Texas Instruments (TXN) operates in significant addressable markets for its semiconductor products, specifically within the Analog and Embedded Processing segments. The company's main products, including analog semiconductors, microcontrollers, and digital signal processors, serve substantial global markets.
Analog Segment
The global analog semiconductors market was valued at approximately USD 87.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 178.9 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate places the global analog semiconductor market size at USD 101.22 billion in 2024, anticipated to reach USD 180.24 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 5.94% from 2025 to 2034. The market for analog semiconductors was also reported at USD 88.65 billion in 2023, with projections to reach USD 156.4 billion by 2032.
Embedded Processing Segment
Microcontrollers
The global microcontroller market size was estimated at USD 40.23 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 105.32 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 13.0% from 2026 to 2033. Other reports indicate the global microcontroller market size was USD 28.8 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 67.4 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 11.4% from 2025 to 2032. Additionally, the market was valued at USD 34.75 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 62.74 billion by 2031.
Digital Signal Processors (DSPs)
The global Digital Signal Processors (DSP) market size was approximately USD 17.23 billion in 2025, expected to grow to USD 18.75 billion in 2026, and is projected to reach USD 25.16 billion by 2030. Another analysis estimates the global DSP market size at USD 25.69 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 59.30 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.9% during 2025-2035. The market was also valued at USD 11.02 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 21.87 billion by 2034.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Texas Instruments (symbol: TXN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Strong Growth in Industrial, Automotive, and Data Center Markets: Texas Instruments has strategically focused on these three markets, which collectively represented approximately 75% of its revenue in 2025, a significant increase from 43% in 2013. These segments are anticipated to be the primary drivers of growth for the foreseeable future. Specifically, the industrial market saw a 12% year-on-year increase in 2025 and is expected to experience a broad-based rebound. The automotive sector grew 6% year-on-year in 2025. The data center market has shown particularly robust growth, with a 64% year-on-year increase in 2025 and a 70% year-over-year surge in Q4 2025. Analysts project the data center business to account for over 12% of total revenue in 2026, up from about 9% in 2025, driven by trends toward higher power density and AI applications.
- Advantage from 300mm Manufacturing Capacity Expansion: The company is concluding a six-year period of elevated capital expenditures aimed at expanding its 300-millimeter wafer fabrication capacity. These investments are designed to provide dependable, low-cost manufacturing at scale, which is expected to reduce costs, ensure future supply, and enable Texas Instruments to achieve higher margins as chip demand normalizes. This strengthened manufacturing capability is a key competitive advantage.
- Acquisition of Silicon Labs' Analog and Mixed-Signal Assets: Texas Instruments announced its intention to acquire the analog and mixed-signal assets from Silicon Labs, with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2027. This acquisition is expected to bolster TI's industrial exposure and integrate a broad wireless connectivity portfolio, thereby enhancing its IoT capabilities. The company anticipates revenue synergies by integrating these newly acquired products into its existing distribution channels and leveraging its e-commerce platform.
- Broad Product Portfolio and Diversified End Markets: Texas Instruments benefits from a diverse product portfolio across its Analog and Embedded Processing segments, serving a wide array of end markets including industrial, automotive, personal electronics, and communications equipment. This diversification provides resilience against market seasonality and cyclical downturns and positions the company to capitalize on new technological advancements across these sectors. The Analog segment, which constituted a substantial 77.6% of the company's total revenues in Q2 2025, continues to expand rapidly.
- Improving Semiconductor Market Conditions and Order Rates: The broader semiconductor market is showing signs of recovery, which is positively impacting Texas Instruments. The company has reported increasing orders, contributing to its positive forward guidance. Analysts have noted improved order rates, particularly from industrial and data center clients, suggesting that the overall semiconductor recovery is allowing Texas Instruments to project growth above typical seasonal patterns.
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Share Repurchases
- Texas Instruments' annual share repurchases were approximately $527 million in 2021, $3.615 billion in 2022, $293 million in 2023, $929 million in 2024, and $1.477 billion in 2025.
- In September 2022, the board authorized an additional $15 billion for common stock repurchases, supplementing approximately $8.2 billion remaining from prior authorizations as of June 2022.
- Texas Instruments returned $6.48 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2026, Texas Instruments entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Silicon Labs for approximately $7.5 billion in an all-cash transaction, expected to close in the first half of 2027. This acquisition is aimed at expanding TI's embedded wireless connectivity solutions portfolio and leveraging its new fabrication plants.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures amounted to $2.462 billion in 2021, $2.797 billion in 2022, $5.071 billion in 2023, and $4.82 billion in 2024. For 2025, actual capital expenditures totaled $4.55 billion.
- The company's capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to significantly decrease to a range of $2 billion to $3 billion.
- The primary focus of these substantial capital expenditures has been a multi-year, multi-billion dollar investment plan to expand internal 300mm wafer fabrication capacity across new facilities in Texas (Richardson, Sherman) and Utah, as part of a larger plan to invest over $60 billion in U.S. manufacturing.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 286.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 129.5 |
| Rev LTM | 12,678 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,703 |
| FCF LTM | 3,138 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,191 |
| CFO LTM | 4,077 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,752 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 30.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -7.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 129.5 |
| P/S | 12.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 42.6 |
| P/EBIT | 47.6 |
| P/E | 60.2 |
| P/CFO | 35.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -13.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 42.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 20.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog | 14,006 | 12,161 | 13,040 | 15,359 | 14,050 |
| Embedded Processing | 2,697 | 2,533 | 3,368 | 3,261 | 3,049 |
| Other | 979 | 947 | 1,111 | 1,408 | 1,245 |
| Total | 17,682 | 15,641 | 17,519 | 20,028 | 18,344 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog | 5,412 | 4,608 | 5,821 | 8,359 | 7,393 |
| Other | 307 | 505 | 502 | 528 | 393 |
| Embedded Processing | 304 | 352 | 1,008 | 1,253 | 1,174 |
| Total | 6,023 | 5,465 | 7,331 | 10,140 | 8,960 |
| $ Mil | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor | 6,757 | 7,115 | 6,472 | 6,459 | 6,251 |
| Educational Technology | 108 | 103 | |||
| Educational & Productivity Solutions | 90 | 91 | 96 | ||
| Sensors & Controls | 479 | 413 | 383 | ||
| Total | 6,865 | 7,218 | 7,041 | 6,963 | 6,730 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $294.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 267.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $301.47 | $221.71 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -2.4% | 32.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 63.5% | 43.9% |
| Downside Capture | 172.01 | 98.82 |
| Upside Capture | 236.73 | 118.00 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.0% | 37.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.71 | 2.47 | 1.86 | 1.51 | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| Up Beta | 1.29 | 1.65 | 1.54 | 1.40 | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Down Beta | 2.84 | 2.50 | 3.28 | 2.47 | 1.85 | 1.39 |
| Up Capture | 345% | 294% | 246% | 207% | 113% | 178% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 36 | 66 | 128 | 384 |
| Down Capture | 272% | 255% | 114% | 72% | 86% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 27 | 59 | 121 | 364 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | 41.1% | 43.8% | 0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 38.8% | 24.7% | 1.27 | 40.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 37.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 21.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | 0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 11.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 19.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | 12.1% | 33.3% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.6% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 63.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 63.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 40.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 23.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | 19.6% | 31.6% | 0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.5% | 24.8% | 0.89 | 71.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 69.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 9.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 19.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 44.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 16.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/22/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/22/2026 | 19.4% | 13.9% | 26.9% |
| 1/27/2026 | 9.9% | 15.3% | 8.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | -5.6% | -7.7% | -12.4% |
| 7/22/2025 | -13.3% | -11.0% | -5.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 6.6% | 6.1% | 19.5% |
| 1/23/2025 | -7.5% | -7.6% | 0.8% |
| 10/22/2024 | 4.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% |
| 7/23/2024 | -0.0% | 1.4% | 5.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 16 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.7% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 15.3% | 26.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.3% | -11.0% | -12.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/22/2026 | 19.4% | 13.9% | 26.9% |
| 1/27/2026 | 9.9% | 15.3% | 8.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | -5.6% | -7.7% | -12.4% |
| 7/22/2025 | -13.3% | -11.0% | -5.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 6.6% | 6.1% | 19.5% |
| 1/23/2025 | -7.5% | -7.6% | 0.8% |
| 10/22/2024 | 4.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% |
| 7/23/2024 | -0.0% | 1.4% | 5.8% |
| 4/23/2024 | 5.6% | 6.6% | 23.3% |
| 1/23/2024 | -2.4% | -6.3% | -4.4% |
| 10/24/2023 | -3.5% | -2.5% | 5.7% |
| 7/25/2023 | -5.4% | -3.5% | -8.1% |
| 4/25/2023 | -2.9% | -3.2% | -0.6% |
| 1/24/2023 | -1.1% | 0.8% | -2.3% |
| 10/25/2022 | -2.6% | 1.3% | 11.3% |
| 7/26/2022 | 6.7% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| 4/26/2022 | 0.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| 1/25/2022 | 2.5% | 4.9% | -1.9% |
| 10/26/2021 | -5.0% | -3.3% | -1.1% |
| 7/21/2021 | -5.3% | -3.3% | -4.2% |
| 4/27/2021 | -4.4% | -5.4% | -0.4% |
| 1/26/2021 | -5.0% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| 10/20/2020 | -3.1% | -2.5% | 2.5% |
| 7/21/2020 | -2.2% | -3.9% | 2.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 16 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.7% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 15.3% | 26.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.3% | -11.0% | -12.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/04/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/05/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 5.00 Bil | 5.20 Bil | 5.40 Bil | 15.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.50 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Earnings per share | 1.77 | 1.91 | 2.05 | 41.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.35 for Q1 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 4.32 Bil | 4.50 Bil | 4.68 Bil | 2.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.40 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 EPS | 1.22 | 1.35 | 1.48 | 7.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.26 for Q4 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/21/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 4.22 Bil | 4.40 Bil | 4.58 Bil | -4.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.62 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 EPS | 1.13 | 1.26 | 1.39 | -14.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.48 for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craighead, Martin S | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 320.43 | 10,000 | 3,204,289 | 4,601,039 | Form | |
| 2 | Cox, Carrie Smith | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 306.41 | 8,838 | 2,708,029 | 11,528,885 | Form | |
| 3 | Leonard, Shanon J | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 295.22 | 4,963 | 1,465,186 | 7,341,281 | Form |
| 4 | Knecht, Julie C | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 278.70 | 9,956 | 2,774,786 | 2,541,789 | Form |
| 5 | Gary, Mark | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 279.25 | 13,689 | 3,822,671 | 12,719,059 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craighead, Martin S | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 320.43 | 10,000 | 3,204,289 | 4,601,039 | Form | |
| 2 | Cox, Carrie Smith | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 306.41 | 8,838 | 2,708,029 | 11,528,885 | Form | |
| 3 | Leonard, Shanon J | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 295.22 | 4,963 | 1,465,186 | 7,341,281 | Form |
| 4 | Knecht, Julie C | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 278.70 | 9,956 | 2,774,786 | 2,541,789 | Form |
| 5 | Gary, Mark | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 279.25 | 13,689 | 3,822,671 | 12,719,059 | Form |
| 6 | Roberts, Mark T | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 280.34 | 28,080 | 7,871,934 | 15,084,790 | Form |
| 7 | Yunus, Mohammad | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4302026 | 270.44 | 51,098 | 13,818,951 | 14,294,385 | Form |
| 8 | Kane, Katharine | SVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 270.41 | 6,125 | 1,656,283 | 6,817,667 | Form |
| 9 | Bahai, Ahmad | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 268.40 | 3,660 | 982,359 | 11,412,278 | Form |
| 10 | Leonard, Shanon J | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 277.95 | 18,189 | 5,055,707 | 8,887,582 | Form |
| 11 | Bluedorn, Todd M | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 274.25 | 4,306 | 1,180,930 | 2,246,399 | Form | |
| 12 | Ron, Amichai | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 272.43 | 18,365 | 5,003,214 | 22,090,149 | Form |
| 13 | Blinn, Mark A | Trust | Sell | 4272026 | 277.51 | 15,000 | Form | |||
| 14 | Lizardi, Rafael R | Sr. Vice President & CFO | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 274.23 | 40,541 | 11,117,556 | 23,442,547 | Form |
| 15 | Patsley, Pamela H | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 276.11 | 4,306 | 1,188,918 | 9,522,116 | Form | |
| 16 | Witzsche, Christine | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 275.52 | 3,625 | 998,771 | 7,058,070 | Form |
| 17 | Kozanian, Hagop H | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 225.95 | 6,843 | 1,546,168 | 17,042,188 | Form |
| 18 | Bahai, Ahmad | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 230.79 | 6,500 | 1,500,117 | 9,805,687 | Form |
| 19 | Gary, Mark | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 230.10 | 12,921 | 2,973,107 | 10,480,310 | Form |
| 20 | Lizardi, Rafael R | Sr. Vice President & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 230.78 | 7,096 | 1,637,611 | 19,721,031 | Form |
| 21 | Gary, Mark | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 220.83 | 10,248 | 2,263,098 | 10,058,285 | Form |
| 22 | Lizardi, Rafael R | Sr. Vice President & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 220.74 | 64,532 | 14,244,539 | 20,429,121 | Form |
| 23 | Roberts, Mark T | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 221.16 | 4,461 | 986,604 | 14,167,195 | Form |
| 24 | Blinn, Mark A | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 221.58 | 3,144 | 696,647 | 2,585,836 | Form | |
| 25 | Bahai, Ahmad | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 223.46 | 3,000 | 670,387 | 9,494,462 | Form |
| 26 | Kirk, Ronald | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 162.33 | 9,990 | 1,621,688 | 2,424,740 | Form | |
| 27 | Witzsche, Christine | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 164.31 | 1,000 | 164,306 | 3,421,019 | Form |
| 28 | Bahai, Ahmad | Sr. Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 205.35 | 1,500 | 308,030 | 7,984,756 | Form |
| 29 | Blinn, Mark A | Trust | Sell | 8272025 | 216.75 | 0 | 72 | 660,205 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indivisible Partners | $250.5 Mil | 22.2% | 482 | ADD +23.0% | 13F |
| Caledonia Investments PLC | $100.5 Mil | 11.7% | 15 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $87.6 Mil | 11.5% | 10 | ADD +32.5% | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $28.8 Mil | 9.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $518.4 Mil | 7.7% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $226.8 Mil | 7.7% | 16 | TRIM -43.9% | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $40.8 Mil | 5.4% | 23 | New | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.2% | 12 | TRIM -58.8% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $294.8 Mil | 4.2% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $260.2 Mil | 4.0% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Fundsmith LLP | $509.3 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | Hold | 13F |
| Fundsmith Investment Services LTD. | $168.3 Mil | 3.8% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $176.3 Mil | 3.8% | 32 | TRIM -9.2% | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $25.0 Mil | 3.6% | 39 | ADD +128.4% | 13F |
| Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. | $8.6 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $12.0 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $340.3 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | ADD +260.8% | 13F |
| Brilliance Asset Management LTD | $8.9 Mil | 2.6% | 16 | ADD +27.1% | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $108.6 Mil | 2.6% | 30 | ADD +26.9% | 13F |
| LHM, Inc. | $5.9 Mil | 2.3% | 22 | ADD +20.9% | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $6.2 Mil | 2.2% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $31.1 Mil | 2.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $12.0 Mil | 1.9% | 41 | ADD +5.2% | 13F |
| Walter Public Investments Inc. | $7.1 Mil | 1.7% | 48 | ADD +2260.3% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.3 Mil | 1.6% | 46 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slate Path Capital LP | $518.4 Mil | 7.7% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $294.8 Mil | 4.2% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $40.8 Mil | 5.4% | 23 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $28.8 Mil | 9.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $14.0 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| WS Management LLLP | $7.8 Mil | 1.0% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Walter Public Investments Inc. | $7.1 Mil | 1.7% | 48 | ADD +2260.3% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $340.3 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | ADD +260.8% | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $25.0 Mil | 3.6% | 39 | ADD +128.4% | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $87.6 Mil | 11.5% | 10 | ADD +32.5% | 13F |
| Brilliance Asset Management LTD | $8.9 Mil | 2.6% | 16 | ADD +27.1% | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $108.6 Mil | 2.6% | 30 | ADD +26.9% | 13F |
| Indivisible Partners | $250.5 Mil | 22.2% | 482 | ADD +23.0% | 13F |
| LHM, Inc. | $5.9 Mil | 2.3% | 22 | ADD +20.9% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $12.0 Mil | 1.9% | 41 | ADD +5.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vantage Wealth | $18.6 Mil | 4.0% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $16.4 Mil | 1.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $9.4 Mil | 3.0% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P. | $6.4 Mil | 0.9% | 25 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Grunden Financial Advisory, Inc. | $6.0 Mil | 2.3% | 35 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.2% | 12 | TRIM -58.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $226.8 Mil | 7.7% | 16 | TRIM -43.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $176.3 Mil | 3.8% | 32 | TRIM -9.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $32.2 Mil | 1.0% | 30 | TRIM -8.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.3 Mil | 1.6% | 46 | TRIM -7.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slate Path Capital LP | $518.4 Mil | 7.7% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Fundsmith LLP | $509.3 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | Hold | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $340.3 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | ADD +260.8% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $294.8 Mil | 4.2% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $260.2 Mil | 4.0% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Indivisible Partners | $250.5 Mil | 22.2% | 482 | ADD +23.0% | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $226.8 Mil | 7.7% | 16 | TRIM -43.9% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $176.3 Mil | 3.8% | 32 | TRIM -9.2% | 13F |
| Fundsmith Investment Services LTD. | $168.3 Mil | 3.8% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $108.6 Mil | 2.6% | 30 | ADD +26.9% | 13F |
| Caledonia Investments PLC | $100.5 Mil | 11.7% | 15 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $87.6 Mil | 11.5% | 10 | ADD +32.5% | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $40.8 Mil | 5.4% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $32.2 Mil | 1.0% | 30 | TRIM -8.2% | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $31.1 Mil | 2.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $28.8 Mil | 9.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $25.0 Mil | 3.6% | 39 | ADD +128.4% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.2% | 12 | TRIM -58.8% | 13F |
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $14.0 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $12.0 Mil | 1.9% | 41 | ADD +5.2% | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $12.0 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Brilliance Asset Management LTD | $8.9 Mil | 2.6% | 16 | ADD +27.1% | 13F |
| Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. | $8.6 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| WS Management LLLP | $7.8 Mil | 1.0% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Walter Public Investments Inc. | $7.1 Mil | 1.7% | 48 | ADD +2260.3% | 13F |
TXN Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on a powerful cyclical recovery in the industrial market, where revenue grew over 30% year-over-year. This is creating significant operating leverage as a multi-year, $2 billion to $3 billion annual capital spending cycle winds down. The primary uncertainty is the durability of this recovery, which management has noted with caution.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical ManufacturerVolume of chips sold x Average Selling Price (ASP) Factory Utilization. A significant portion of operating costs is fixed, so higher factory loadings spread these costs over more output, increasing profit margins.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a powerful earnings recovery is underway as a major capital investment cycle crests into accelerating demand.
- Industrial end market revenue grew more than 30% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
- Latest-quarter revenue growth of 18.6% YoY outpaced operating expense growth of 3.1% YoY.
- Q2 2026 revenue is guided to $5.0 billion to $5.4 billion, up from Q1's $4.83 billion.
- Capital expenditures in Q1 2026 were $676 million, down from $1.12 billion a year ago.
PRIMARY RISK
A faltering recovery would be punitive due to high fixed costs from the manufacturing buildout, compressing margins. The company has significant exposure, with 50% of 2025 revenue from products shipped to China.
- Management has expressed caution, wanting to 'see how sustainable the growth is'.
- About 50% of 2025 revenue was from products shipped into China, a geopolitical risk.
- A significant portion of operating cost is fixed due to owned manufacturing capacity.
- Options market implied volatility is at the 94.8th percentile of its one-year range.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial End Market Revenue Growth | Industrial revenue increased more than 30% year-on-year in Q1 2026. - Accelerating | The year-over-year growth in the strategic Industrial end market has accelerated significantly in the most recent quarter, following two quarters of already strong growth. The sequential growth of over 20% marks a sharp positive inflection from the seasonal sequential decline in the prior quarter, indicating robust underlying demand. |
| Inventory vs. Revenue Growth Divergence | An inventory-versus-revenue growth divergence of -18.4 percentage points in the latest quarter (ended 6/30/2026). - Turning around | This metric indicates that revenue is growing substantially faster than inventory. A large negative divergence is a strong positive signal, suggesting that demand is robustly pulling through existing inventory, which mitigates margin risk from potential overbuilds and obsolescence. This aligns with the company's stated strategy to build inventory ahead of demand. |
| Free cash flow per share growth | not stated in available sources (not stated in available sources) | Management states this is the 'ultimate measure to generate value' and the 'best metric for owners to measure our progress.' |
| Days of inventory | 209 (Q1 2026) | Reflects the execution of the company's strategy to build inventory ahead of demand to maintain high levels of customer service and competitive lead times. |
Sustainable Recovery vs. Cyclical Trap
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe accelerating industrial demand, with revenue up over 30% YoY, signals a durable upcycle that will drive significant margin expansion as new, cost-efficient factories ramp up.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating industrial bookings offset cyclical risks, which the market is pricing with implied volatility at the 94.8th percentile of its one-year range?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company's 15.6% upward revision to Q2 2026 revenue guidance, based on 'stronger booking', is a direct leading indicator of continued momentum.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a potential inventory restocking blip, pointing to management's own caution and high fixed costs that would crush margins if demand falters, a risk amplified by high China exposure.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
August 1, 2026 | New CFO Takes Role Watch: The company's new Chief Financial Officer, Julie Knecht, becomes effective, succeeding the retiring Rafael Lizardi. |
August 11, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A quarterly cash dividend of $1.42 per share is scheduled to be paid to stockholders. |
8/18/2026 | Peer Results Signal Sector Slowdown Watch: ADI's commentary on industrial and automotive demand, channel inventory levels, and pricing environment. |
9/2/2026 | Peer Broadcom Reports Watch: Peer Broadcom (AVGO) is scheduled to report earnings, offering insights into data center and communications equipment demand. |
10/19/2026 | Market Disappointment on Growth Sustainability Watch: Q4 revenue guidance, commentary on industrial and data center growth rates, and gross margin outlook. |
10/19/2026 | Next Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings, providing a business update and forward guidance. |
No set date | Geopolitical Trade Actions Impact China Watch: US or China government announcements regarding semiconductor trade policy, tariffs, or export controls. |
No set date | Priced-In Uncertainty Remains Elevated Watch: News flow that could resolve or heighten the uncertainty priced by options, such as trade news. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-16 | Declared Q3 Dividend Details: The board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.42 per share, payable on August 11, 2026. | -5.7% $301.19 -> $284.02 |
2026-06-02 | Announced CFO Transition Details: Announced that CFO Rafael Lizardi will retire in August 2026 after 25 years, to be succeeded by insider Julie Knecht, effective August 1, 2026. | +5.2% $293.20 -> $308.59 |
2026-04-22 | Reported Strong Q1 Results Details: Reported Q1 revenue of $4.83 billion and EPS of $1.68. The company also raised its Q2 revenue guidance, leading to a 21.0% two-day stock reaction. | +21.1% $231.97 -> $280.80 |
2026-03-10 | New Edge AI MCUs Launched Details: The company expanded its microcontroller portfolio with new MCUs featuring the TinyEngine NPU, designed to enable edge AI in various devices. | +1.3% $195.21 -> $197.67 |
2026-02-04 | Announced Silicon Labs Acquisition Details: Announced a definitive agreement to acquire Silicon Labs for approximately $7.5 billion in an all-cash transaction to enhance its position in embedded wireless connectivity. | -0.5% $224.07 -> $222.85 |
2026-01-27 | Strong Q1 Guidance Issued Details: The company forecast first-quarter revenue between $4.32 billion and, above estimates. The stock reacted positively, rising 10.0% over two days. | +10.0% $194.33 -> $213.68 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: TXN trades at roughly 54% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (3.7x the market), around the 95th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ADI - Analog Devices
High-Performance FocusAnalog Devices appears to capture more value in high-performance niches, evidenced by its higher gross margin of 64.5% versus TXN's 57.3%. It is also acquiring assets for the AI accelerator market.
AVGO - a business partner
Data Center Exposurea business partner has a much larger scale and a dominant position in data center and communications markets, reflected in its superior 44.1% operating margin compared to TXN's 36%.
A capital-intensive, vertically-integrated manufacturer using its scale in long-lifecycle analog chips to navigate semiconductor cycles with the primary goal of maximizing long-term free cash flow per share.
Texas Instruments is executing a long-term strategy centered on four competitive advantages: in-house manufacturing, a broad product portfolio, direct market channels, and product diversity. The company is nearing the end of a major capital expenditure cycle to build 300mm wafer capacity, which it believes provides a structural cost advantage. This heavy investment in fixed assets makes the business highly sensitive to the semiconductor cycle, but the ultimate objective is to leverage these advantages to generate and return significant cash to shareholders over time.
Sustained strong demand in industrial and automotive markets, evidence of market share gains due to supply availability, and expanding operating margins as new fabs ramp.
A sharp, prolonged semiconductor downturn leading to underutilization of its manufacturing assets, significant pricing pressure from Asian competitors, or failure to achieve expected cost savings from the 300mm transition.
Quarterly fluctuations in the personal electronics market or short-term changes in the calculator business.
Repricing Catalyst
Stronger-than-expected Q1 2026 results and above-seasonal Q2 2026 guidance, driven by accelerating demand in the industrial and data center markets, suggesting the current cyclical recovery is gaining momentum.
Analog
$14.0B TTM (79% of Total) · 39% MarginWhat It Is
Sells Power and Signal Chain semiconductors to electronics manufacturers. These chips manage power in electronic equipment and convert real-world signals like sound, temperature, or pressure into digital data for processing.
Who Pays & How
Electronics designers and manufacturers in markets like industrial, automotive, and data center pay for these chips. They are chosen for their role as critical interfaces with the real world and for power management as electronics become more digitized.
Competition
Embedded Processing
$2.7B TTM (15% of Total) · 11% MarginWhat It Is
Sells microcontrollers, processors, and wireless connectivity products that act as the digital 'brains' for electronic equipment, particularly in the industrial and automotive markets.
Who Pays & How
Electronics designers and manufacturers pay for these chips to handle specific tasks in their equipment. Customer investment in software for TXN's products tends to increase the length of customer relationships, as they prefer to reuse software across product generations.
Competition
Other
$979M TTM (6% of Total) · 31% MarginWhat It Is
Sells DLP® products (primarily for projecting high-definition images), calculators, and certain custom semiconductors known as application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs).
Who Pays & How
Customers in various markets for specific applications like projection systems and educational technology.
Competition
Texas Instruments — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Semiconductors Resources |
| EE Times |
| Semiconductor Engineering |
| Semiconductor Digest |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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