NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $229.63 | Market Cap: $57.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $229.63Market Cap: $57.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 2.3 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 2.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NXPI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Geopolitical Tensions and China Dependence
NXP's revenue is significantly exposed to geopolitical tensions, especially concerning China, which represented around 33% of its total revenue last year. Tightening export curbs could slow sales to China, directly impacting NXP's revenue. Trade tensions and regulatory changes can affect NXP's operations and supply chain.
2. Slowdown in Automotive Sector and Inventory Digestion
A noticeable slowdown in spending by automotive customers, a major contributor to NXP's revenue, has been observed due to macroeconomic uncertainty. NXP's Q2 2025 results were anticipated to reflect softness in demand, with analysts expecting a 5% decline in automotive revenue because of inventory overhangs and delayed production shifts by automakers. The broader semiconductor industry also faces inventory digestion issues, particularly among Tier 1 Automotive OEMs.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXPI Return | 27% | 45% | -29% | 48% | -8% | 14% | 101% |
| Peers Return | 41% | 39% | -16% | 26% | -6% | 14% | 122% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXPI Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 25% | 58% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 62% | 40% | 60% | 37% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXPI Max Drawdown | -49% | 0% | -38% | -3% | -11% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -5% | -30% | -5% | -17% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TXN, ADI, MCHP, ON, QCOM. See NXPI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXPI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 496 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 358 days | 120 days |
Compare to LRCX, KLAC, MCHP, AMBQ, GLSA
In The Past
NXP Semiconductors's stock fell -42.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/7/2021. A -42.2% loss requires a 73.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NXPI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 04302025 | NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 25.5% | -1.3% |
| 08312022 | NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.8% | 27.7% | -15.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 04302025 | NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 25.5% | -1.3% |
| 08312022 | NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.8% | 27.7% | -15.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NXP Semiconductors
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 178.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 89.1 |
| Rev LTM | 11,532 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,002 |
| FCF LTM | 1,925 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,031 |
| CFO LTM | 3,566 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,797 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 89.1 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| P/EBIT | 22.8 |
| P/E | 32.7 |
| P/CFO | 24.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 30.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -3.9% | -5.0% | -13.8% |
| 7/22/2025 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 4/28/2025 | -6.9% | -5.8% | -0.0% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.1% | 2.6% | 5.9% |
| 11/5/2024 | -5.2% | -4.2% | -5.6% |
| 7/23/2024 | -7.6% | -9.9% | -10.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | 3.7% | 5.1% | 10.8% |
| 2/6/2024 | 0.9% | 7.1% | 13.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 5.1% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -4.2% | -4.4% |
| Max Positive | 5.0% | 9.7% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -9.9% | -13.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |