Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $64.34 | Market Cap: $34.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $64.34Market Cap: $34.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 732x |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Edge AI, Industrial Robotics, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% | |
| Key risksMCHP key risks include [1] high inventory levels and margin compression driven by a prolonged downturn in its key automotive and industrial segments. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Edge AI, Industrial Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 732x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
| Key risksMCHP key risks include [1] high inventory levels and margin compression driven by a prolonged downturn in its key automotive and industrial segments. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MCHP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Microchip Technology (MCHP) experienced a slight stock movement of -0.7% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, influenced by a mix of financial results, analyst adjustments, and forward-looking guidance. Here are five key points that likely contributed to this movement: 1. 1. Mixed Q2 and Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings and Guidance: Microchip Technology reported its Q2 fiscal year 2026 earnings on November 6, 2025, beating analyst estimates with $0.35 EPS on revenue of $1.14 billion. However, the company issued a weak financial forecast for Q4 fiscal year 2026, projecting revenue of approximately $1.13 billion, below Wall Street’s consensus of $1.18 billion. This cautious outlook reflected weakening demand due to customers in the automotive and industrial sectors working through excess inventory, leading to a 9.8% stock drop on November 7, 2025. Conversely, in early December, the company improved its Q3 fiscal year 2026 outlook, raising its adjusted EPS guidance to $0.40 and expecting net sales at the higher end of its $1.11 billion to $1.15 billion range, which caused the stock to climb by 9.34% on December 3, 2025. 2. 2. Analyst Rating and Price Target Adjustments: Throughout the period, analysts provided varying perspectives on MCHP. For instance, Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded Microchip Technology from "neutral" to "overweight" on December 16, 2025, raising its price target from $65.00 to $85.00. Needham & Company LLC also lifted their target price from $73.00 to $75.00 with a "buy" rating on December 4, 2025. Conversely, Truist Financial reaffirmed a "hold" rating and lowered its price target from $64.00 to $60.00 on November 7, 2025. Wells Fargo also dropped its price objective from $60.00 to $58.00 with an "equal weight" rating on November 7, 2025. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCHP Return | 34% | 27% | -18% | 31% | -35% | 19% | 41% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 33% | -24% | 31% | -2% | 40% | 136% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCHP Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 25% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 62% | 37% | 60% | 43% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCHP Max Drawdown | -47% | -4% | -35% | -2% | -37% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -3% | -34% | -8% | -13% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MU, TXN, ADI, NXPI, DIOD. See MCHP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCHP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 169 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 422 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,745 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MU, TXN, ADI, NXPI, DIOD
In The Past
Microchip Technology's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MCHP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 10312022 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 23.2% | 17.7% | -3.7% |
| 04302022 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.6% | 13.9% | -13.5% |
| 03312020 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 52.7% | 131.9% | -7.4% |
| 03312019 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.0% | -15.5% | -31.7% |
| 09302018 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.1% | 19.8% | -22.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 10312022 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 23.2% | 17.7% | -3.7% |
| 04302022 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.6% | 13.9% | -13.5% |
| 03312020 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 52.7% | 131.9% | -7.4% |
| 03312019 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.0% | -15.5% | -31.7% |
| 09302018 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.1% | 19.8% | -22.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Microchip Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 198.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 88.4 |
| Rev LTM | 11,532 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,002 |
| FCF LTM | 1,719 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,770 |
| CFO LTM | 3,566 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,797 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 88.4 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| P/EBIT | 26.8 |
| P/E | 30.5 |
| P/CFO | 24.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -5.2% | -7.6% | 13.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.6% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 12.6% | 23.7% | 39.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -2.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | -1.8% | -10.4% | -21.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -10.6% | -8.4% | -2.1% |
| 5/6/2024 | -1.8% | -1.3% | 1.0% |
| 2/1/2024 | -1.6% | -1.5% | 2.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.8% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 24.3% | 39.6% |
| Max Negative | -10.6% | -10.4% | -21.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5232025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5232024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5252023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5202022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |