Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)


Market Price (11/13/2026): $24.75 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)


Market Price (11/13/2026): $24.75
Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%

Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 7.0%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.81, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99%

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.7%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%

Key risks
NOG key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and the potential inability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its obligations, Show more.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 7.0%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.81, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.7%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
9 Key risks
NOG key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and the potential inability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its obligations, Show more.

NOG in ETFs

Weight = NOG's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.08%
IJR0.14%
VYM0.01%
VB0.03%
XOP2.1%
AVUV0.31%
+12 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Prices as of 11/12/2026

Nov 4: down 10.8% in one day (S&P 500 up 1.7%)
This move occurred without company news. The stock declined significantly despite the broader market rising that day.

Down 22.3% from its Oct 26 high to Nov 5, up 11.7% since (S&P 500 down 4.2%)
The overall decline occurred without specific company news during this period, though the broader market also fell. Major drops included November 2 and November 4, both without company-specific headlines.

Nov 6: up 3.2% the day after its Nov 5 earnings report (S&P 500 up 0.3%)
The stock reacted to the Q3 2026 earnings report, released after the prior day's close. The company reported revenue of $705 million, with improved net income and diluted EPS from a year earlier.

Show more
Prices as of 11/12/2026

Nov 4: down 10.8% in one day (S&P 500 up 1.7%)
This move occurred without company news. The stock declined significantly despite the broader market rising that day.

Down 22.3% from its Oct 26 high to Nov 5, up 11.7% since (S&P 500 down 4.2%)
The overall decline occurred without specific company news during this period, though the broader market also fell. Major drops included November 2 and November 4, both without company-specific headlines.

Nov 6: up 3.2% the day after its Nov 5 earnings report (S&P 500 up 0.3%)
The stock reacted to the Q3 2026 earnings report, released after the prior day's close. The company reported revenue of $705 million, with improved net income and diluted EPS from a year earlier.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 19.3% change in NOG stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)731202611122026Change
Stock Price ($)20.7424.7419.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,0592,37515.4%
P/S Multiple1.01.111.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)99106-7.0%
Cumulative Contribution19.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NOG19.3% 
Market (SPY)1.4%-17.4%
Sector (XLE)8.0%78.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -4.9% change in NOG stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)430202611122026Change
Stock Price ($)26.0124.74-4.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,0592,37515.4%
P/S Multiple1.21.1-11.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)99106-7.0%
Cumulative Contribution-4.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NOG-4.9% 
Market (SPY)5.6%-26.0%
Sector (XLE)8.6%78.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 21.0% change in NOG stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202511122026Change
Stock Price ($)20.4524.7421.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,2232,3756.9%
P/S Multiple0.91.122.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)98106-7.4%
Cumulative Contribution21.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NOG21.0% 
Market (SPY)11.9%-16.6%
Sector (XLE)49.3%76.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -22.7% change in NOG stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202311122026Change
Stock Price ($)32.0124.74-22.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,8272,37530.0%
P/S Multiple1.61.1-29.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)89106-16.2%
Cumulative Contribution-22.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NOG-22.7% 
Market (SPY)87.3%31.9%
Sector (XLE)65.0%80.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NOG Return137%55%26%5%-38%22%263%
Peers Return66%40%-0%46%-16%14%222%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NOG Win Rate67%67%50%58%25%55% 
Peers Win Rate64%56%62%62%38%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%45% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NOG Max Drawdown-33%-39%-24%-21%-50%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-25%-35%-22%-32%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VTS, GRNT, VNOM, TPL, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/12/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventNOGS&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-22.5%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven25 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-65.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven189.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven415 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-55.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven122.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1683 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-49.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven96.4%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven204 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-47.3%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven89.8%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven45 days62 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-45.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven84.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven80 days123 days

Compare to VTS, GRNT, VNOM, TPL, FANG

In The Past

Northern Oil & Gas's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventNOGS&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-22.5%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven25 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-65.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven189.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven415 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-55.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven122.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1683 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-49.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven96.4%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven204 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-47.3%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven89.8%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven45 days62 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-45.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven84.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven80 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-27.3%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.5%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven86 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-68.1%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven213.7%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven66 days1085 days

Compare to VTS, GRNT, VNOM, TPL, FANG

In The Past

Northern Oil & Gas's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG) is an independent energy company primarily engaged in the upstream sector of the oil and natural gas industry. The company's core business involves the full lifecycle of crude oil and natural gas properties, from their acquisition and exploration to their exploitation, development, and eventual production.

NOG's main products are crude oil and natural gas, which it extracts from its holdings across significant resource plays within the United States. The company's operations are concentrated in prolific regions such as the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin. Its primary market consists of the broader energy sector, where the crude oil and natural gas it produces are sold to refiners, pipelines, and other energy distributors for further processing and consumption across various industries and end-users in the U.S.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Northern Oil & Gas:

  • It's like a pure-play oil and gas producer, similar to the upstream division of ExxonMobil.
  • Think of it as a mining company like Barrick Gold, but for crude oil and natural gas.
  • It's like an asset management firm for oil and gas properties, acquiring and developing them for production, similar to how Blackstone manages real estate.
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  • Crude Oil: Northern Oil & Gas produces crude oil from its interests in various basins across the United States.
  • Natural Gas: Northern Oil & Gas produces natural gas from its interests in various basins across the United States.

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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is an upstream energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. As such, it sells its produced commodities (crude oil and natural gas) primarily to other companies within the energy sector, rather than to individuals. According to its public filings, Northern Oil & Gas has a diversified customer base and did not have any single customer that accounted for 10% or more of its revenues for the years ended December 31, 2022, or 2021. Therefore, NOG does not disclose individually named "major customers" in the traditional sense of companies representing a significant portion of its revenue. However, NOG sells its crude oil and natural gas production to a variety of purchasers that fall into the following categories:
  • Refiners: Companies that process crude oil into various refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
  • Integrated Oil Companies: Large companies involved in multiple aspects of the oil and gas industry, from exploration and production to refining, marketing, and distribution.
  • Pipeline and Midstream Companies: Entities responsible for gathering, processing, and transporting crude oil and natural gas from production sites to market hubs or processing facilities.
  • Marketing Companies: Trading firms or marketing divisions of larger energy companies that purchase crude oil and natural gas for resale or further distribution.
While Northern Oil & Gas does not disclose the specific names of its individual customers due to their diversified nature, representative examples of public companies operating within these customer categories in the U.S. energy market include:
  • Representative Refiners:
    • Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
    • Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
    • Phillips 66 (PSX)
  • Representative Integrated Oil Companies:
    • Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
    • Chevron Corporation (CVX)
  • Representative Pipeline and Midstream Companies:
    • Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)
    • Energy Transfer LP (ET)
    • The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)

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Nicholas O'Grady, Chief Executive Officer

Nicholas O'Grady has served as Chief Executive Officer of Northern Oil & Gas since January 2020 and was named to NOG's Board of Directors in 2024. He joined NOG in June 2018 as Chief Financial Officer and also held the title of President from September 2019 until his promotion to CEO. Mr. O'Grady leads the NOG team in all aspects of the business, including acquisitions, investments, financial management, and business strategy. Over his tenure, the NOG team has executed acquisitions and related financings worth billions of dollars. Prior to NOG, he had nearly two decades of energy-related finance experience as an investment banker and a principal investor. Mr. O'Grady began his career in the Natural Resources investment banking group at Bank of America. He later worked at asset management firms such as Highbridge Capital Management and Hudson Bay Capital Management, where he focused on energy-related equities, public credit, and private and direct investments.

Chad Allen, Chief Financial Officer

Mr. Allen leads all accounting, financial, and public company-related functions as Chief Financial Officer for Northern Oil & Gas. He previously served as Chief Accounting Officer since August 2016 and as the company's Corporate Controller since joining Northern in August 2013. Mr. Allen also served as the company's Interim Chief Financial Officer from January to May 2018. Before joining Northern, Mr. Allen was in the audit practice with Grant Thornton LLP from 2010 to 2013, and with McGladrey & Pullen, LLP from 2004 to 2010.

Adam Dirlam, President

Mr. Dirlam leads the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital allocation efforts at Northern Oil & Gas. He previously served as Chief Operating Officer since January 2020 and as Executive Vice President - Land since May 2018. Mr. Dirlam has held various other roles with the company since 2009. Prior to his tenure at Northern, Mr. Dirlam served in various finance and accounting roles for Honeywell International.

James Evans, Chief Technical Officer

Mr. Evans oversees all aspects of Northern Oil & Gas's engineering process, including the valuation of properties, reserves, and production forecasting. He was named Chief Technical Officer in April 2023, and prior to that, served as Executive Vice President & Chief Engineer since February 2021 and Senior Vice President of Engineering since January 2020. Mr. Evans has been with NOG since 2013, holding numerous progressive engineering roles. He began his career as a Reservoir Engineer with Cabot Oil & Gas and also worked for Cornerstone Natural Resources and Fidelity Exploration.

Erik Romslo, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary

Mr. Romslo oversees all legal, regulatory, and SEC-related matters as Chief Legal Officer and facilitates all Board functions as Secretary. He joined Northern Oil & Gas as General Counsel and Secretary in October 2011, and was promoted to Executive Vice President in January 2013, before becoming Chief Legal Officer in January 2020. Before joining the company, Mr. Romslo practiced law in the Minneapolis office of Faegre Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP (formerly Faegre & Benson LLP) from 2005 until 2011, where he was a member of the Corporate group.

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The key risks to Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) are primarily associated with the volatile nature of the energy industry and its operational model.

Key Risks to Northern Oil & Gas

  1. Commodity Price Volatility: As an independent energy company, Northern Oil & Gas's revenues are significantly influenced by the fluctuating prices of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). These prices are highly volatile and subject to numerous factors beyond the company's control, including global supply and demand, geopolitical events, and actions by organizations like OPEC+. While Northern Oil & Gas employs hedging strategies to mitigate some of this volatility, these measures only partially reduce the risk and do not eliminate it entirely. Extended periods of low commodity prices can adversely affect the company's financial position, results of operations, cash flow, and the economic viability of its reserves.
  2. Dependency on Third-Party Operators: Northern Oil & Gas operates as a non-operator, meaning it acquires working interests in wells but relies on third parties for drilling, completion, and overall operational management. This business model means that NOG has limited control over operational decisions, the timing of well completions, and the execution of development plans. The success of its business, therefore, extensively depends on the performance and financial stability of these third-party operators. Operator deferrals or challenges faced by these operators, particularly in a low commodity price environment, can negatively impact NOG's production, cash flow, and financial condition.
  3. Financial Leverage and Debt: Northern Oil & Gas carries a significant debt load, which poses a substantial financial risk. The company's liabilities are considerable compared to its cash and near-term receivables, suggesting that shareholders should closely monitor its debt management. Historically, Northern Oil & Gas has experienced periods of negative free cash flow, raising questions about its long-term financial flexibility. High debt levels can lead to increased financing costs and may necessitate raising new equity capital at potentially unfavorable prices, leading to shareholder dilution. Furthermore, covenants within the instruments governing its indebtedness may restrict the company's ability to pay dividends.

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The global energy transition away from fossil fuels, driven by the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources, the rapid growth of electric vehicles, and more stringent environmental policies aimed at decarbonization, poses a clear emerging threat to Northern Oil & Gas. This trend threatens to reduce long-term demand for crude oil and natural gas, potentially leading to declining asset values, stranded reserves, and diminished access to capital for exploration and production activities.

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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) primarily focuses on the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties across various basins in the United States, including the Williston, Appalachian, Permian, and Uinta Basins. Therefore, its addressable markets are the crude oil and natural gas markets within the U.S.

The overall U.S. oil and gas market was estimated at approximately USD 1.55 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 1.61 trillion in 2025. This market is expected to reach around USD 2.24 trillion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.75% between 2025 and 2034.

Specifically for natural gas, the U.S. natural gas market size is valued at approximately USD 473.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 601.8 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.5% during this forecast period.

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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Strategic Acquisitions and "Ground Game" Initiatives: Northern Oil & Gas consistently pursues strategic acquisitions, focusing on non-operated working interests and "ground game" opportunities. These involve acquiring small, accretive working-interest packages with near-term cash flow and low-risk proved undeveloped (PUD) conversions. For example, in October 2024, NOG acquired a 20% interest in Uinta Basin assets for approximately $511.3 million, and in February 2025, it expanded its Permian Basin footprint by acquiring 2,275 net acres for $40 million. This ongoing strategy of bolt-on acquisitions and ground game purchases contributes significantly to expanding its asset base and, consequently, its production capacity and revenue.
  2. Multi-Basin Diversification and Expansion: The company is strategically rebalancing its portfolio to mitigate basin-specific risks and enhance cash flow. This involves shifting from a concentration in the Bakken to an oil-weighted Permian footprint and incorporating gas optionality in the Marcellus and Appalachian basins. NOG's growth strategy emphasizes multi-basin diversification, including targeted expansion into the Permian and Marcellus, and has expanded its operational footprint into new territories like the Uinta Basin.
  3. Increased Production from Existing and New Assets: NOG aims to sustain and grow production volumes through capital efficiency and the development of its extensive inventory. The company targets thousands of future gross locations by adding de-risked locations across its various basins through quarterly bolt-ons. For instance, in Q4 2025, Northern Oil & Gas reported an average daily production of 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, a 7% increase from Q3 2025, with natural gas production reaching a record 392 million cubic feet (MMcf) per day, up 24% from Q4 2024. The company has also provided 2026 guidance projecting production between 139,000 and 148,000 BOE per day.
  4. Technological Innovation and Operational Efficiency: Northern Oil & Gas is focusing on leveraging data and advanced techniques to maximize performance across its diverse, non-operated portfolio. This commitment to technological innovation and operational efficiency helps to optimize production from its assets and can lead to increased output and potentially lower operating costs, thereby positively impacting revenue.
  5. Shift to Drill-Ready Projects: In 2026, Northern Oil & Gas plans to adjust its "ground game" strategy by transitioning from leasing activities to focusing more on drill-ready projects. This shift is anticipated to capitalize on opportunities that were previously less attractive, potentially leading to a more immediate realization of production and revenue.

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Share Repurchases

  • Northern Oil & Gas increased its share repurchase authorization by $100 million in March 2025, adding to an existing $100 million remaining on the program.
  • In 2024, the company repurchased 2,535,391 shares at a weighted average price of $37.27, contributing to approximately $260 million in total shareholder returns for the year.
  • During the first three quarters of 2025, NOG completed $50.0 million in common stock repurchases, as part of $179.7 million returned to shareholders. In Q2 2025, over 1.1 million shares were repurchased at an average price of $31.15 per share.

Share Issuance

  • In March 2026, Northern Oil & Gas completed a public offering of 7,207,208 common shares, raising approximately $200 million in gross proceeds. The net proceeds are designated for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility.
  • The company issued $200 million in 3.625% convertible unsecured notes due April 2029 in September 2025, generating approximately $211.2 million in gross proceeds.

Outbound Investments

  • Since 2018, NOG has executed over $5.0 billion in bolt-on strategic acquisitions and numerous "Ground-Game" interests in wells and drill-cos.
  • In February 2026, NOG completed the acquisition of non-operated interests in the Utica Shale in Ohio from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream for a cash payment of $464.5 million, securing a 40% stake in these assets.
  • In October 2024, NOG finalized the acquisition of Uinta Basin assets from XCL Resources, LLC for $511.3 million in cash, and in September 2024, acquired Delaware Basin assets from Point Energy Partners for $205.0 million.

Capital Expenditures

  • Total capital expenditures for 2025 were approximately $1.0 billion, which included $173.5 million for elective ground game opportunities. Initial guidance for 2025 capex ranged from $1,050 million to $1,200 million, later reduced to $925 million to $1,050 million.
  • The primary focus of 2025 capital spending was on the Permian Basin (57-66%), followed by the Williston, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins.
  • For 2026, the capital budget is designed to drive growth, with an anticipated activity split of 40% in the Permian, 25% in Appalachia, 25% in Williston, and 10% in Uinta Basins.

Better Bets vs. Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)

Peer Outperformance in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

NOG has trailed 58% of its 50 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are CNQ, CNX and RRC. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ranks 6th of 7 industries in Energy by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Oil & Gas Exploration & Production constituents that NOG has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
47%
of 60 industry peers · 21.5% return
3Y
27%
of 56 industry peers · -18.3% return
5Y
42%
of 50 industry peers · 32.9% return
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production peers with revenue growth within 4pp of NOG's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
NOG Northern Oil & Gas 9.8% -5.6x 21.5%-18.3%32.9% —
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources 11.3% 7.1x 57.8%73.2%203.6% +171pp
CNX CNX Resources 7.6% 5.8x -1.7%74.4%148.1% +115pp
RRC Range Resources 5.9% 13.5x 35.2%59.1%133.6% +101pp
EOG EOG Resources 8.1% 9.8x 47.7%40.7%108.2% +75pp
AR Antero Resources 6.9% 8.7x 12.3%47.1%101.0% +68pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Energy sector, ranked by 5Y. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production is NOG's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 11 75.4%117.7%306.9% MPC 601% · VLO 472% · PBF 418%
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 18 37.8%98.4%182.9% INSW 873% · LPG 722% · TRGP 509%
Integrated Oil & Gas 7 40.5%74.9%158.2% IMO 312% · SU 234% · XOM 213%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 33 15.8%26.2%70.2% SEI 902% · FTI 862% · TDW 555%
Oil & Gas Drilling 7 48.5%7.4%56.0% VAL 127% · NE 100% · RIG 56%
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ← 51 28.5%12.0%52.2% BTE 790% · PR 268% · CNQ 204%
Coal & Consumable Fuels 14 -42.1%-4.6%19.3% CNR 268% · CCJ 164% · BTU 58%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

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Financials

NOGVTSGRNTVNOMTPLFANGMedian
NameNorthern.Vitesse .Granite .Viper En.Texas Pa.Diamondb. 
Mkt Price24.7515.456.4940.93281.06182.5232.84
Mkt Cap2.60.70.87.919.451.15.3
Rev LTM2,3753005602,27896818,4661,623
Op Inc LTM793361421,2347317,398762
FCF LTM-2064-1136181184,02561
FCF 3Y Avg-8722-75-582230-923-81
CFO LTM1,3561262661,66164110,359998
CFO 3Y Avg1,4331492881,0275588,270793

Growth & Margins

NOGVTSGRNTVNOMTPLFANGMedian
NameNorthern.Vitesse .Granite .Viper En.Texas Pa.Diamondb. 
Rev Chg LTM8.3%10.6%24.2%91.6%25.3%20.8%22.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.8%13.2%12.3%45.0%16.3%32.8%14.8%
Rev Chg Q45.2%23.0%57.3%57.9%34.6%38.0%41.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.2%5.5%13.0%11.9%7.8%8.7%9.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM14.5%37.6%27.0%99.7%24.9%42.6%32.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-2.1%8.5%2.1%32.6%15.5%18.4%12.0%
Op Mgn LTM33.4%12.0%25.3%54.2%75.5%40.1%36.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg34.7%14.9%25.3%57.9%76.2%40.2%37.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.0%5.0%4.7%4.1%0.6%3.9%4.1%
CFO/Rev LTM57.1%42.1%47.5%72.9%66.2%56.1%56.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg64.1%54.5%64.1%71.3%69.3%57.7%64.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-8.7%1.2%-20.1%27.1%12.2%21.8%6.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.7%8.3%-15.3%-61.9%30.5%-15.0%-9.4%

Valuation

NOGVTSGRNTVNOMTPLFANGMedian
NameNorthern.Vitesse .Granite .Viper En.Texas Pa.Diamondb. 
Mkt Cap2.60.70.87.919.451.15.3
P/S1.12.21.53.520.02.82.5
P/Op Inc3.318.16.06.426.56.96.7
P/EBIT-6.1-14.0-47.09.426.116.91.6
P/E-5.6-14.1-16.328.833.024.99.7
P/CFO1.95.23.24.830.24.94.9
Total Yield-10.9%5.9%0.7%15.1%3.9%6.4%4.9%
Dividend Yield7.0%13.0%6.8%11.6%0.8%2.4%6.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.9%2.7%-11.8%-12.0%1.1%-3.7%-3.8%
D/E1.00.30.50.30.00.30.3
Net D/E1.00.30.50.3-0.00.20.3

Returns

NOGVTSGRNTVNOMTPLFANGMedian
NameNorthern.Vitesse .Granite .Viper En.Texas Pa.Diamondb. 
1M Rtn-6.2%-12.9%27.5%-6.6%-23.9%-7.3%-6.9%
3M Rtn3.2%-2.3%31.6%0.4%-18.9%-7.9%-1.0%
6M Rtn10.6%-10.8%27.6%-11.7%-27.4%-7.8%-9.3%
12M Rtn21.6%-18.6%38.9%16.2%-15.7%28.7%18.9%
3Y Rtn-18.3%-8.2%36.4%57.8%57.3%29.6%33.0%
1M Excs Rtn-4.6%-10.1%32.7%-4.8%-19.4%-5.7%-5.3%
3M Excs Rtn5.2%-0.3%32.0%0.1%-19.3%-7.1%-0.1%
6M Excs Rtn9.1%-12.4%26.0%-13.3%-29.0%-9.3%-10.9%
12M Excs Rtn6.9%-32.5%23.9%2.6%-25.5%15.7%4.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-92.7%-85.1%-39.7%-16.3%-20.0%-45.0%-42.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties2,4762,2262,1661,571 
Gain (Loss) on Commodity Derivatives, Net    -478
Natural Gas and Natural gas liquids (NGL) Revenues    202
Oil Revenues    773
Other    0
Total2,4762,2262,1661,571497


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$24.74 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.6 
First Trading Date04/13/2007 
Distance from 52W High-14.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$25.11$23.80
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-1.5%3.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility46.2%46.5%
Downside Capture-62.02-90.58
Upside Capture-61.96-61.24
Correlation (S&P 500)-19.1%-17.8%
NOG Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.98-1.13-0.98-1.19-0.620.97
Up Beta-0.22-3.12-1.89-2.12-1.421.16
Down Beta0.66-0.85-0.40-0.350.511.68
Up Capture20%-53%-8%-67%-25%12%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days12223465134398
Down Capture-340%-155%-253%-226%-219%78%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days10213060116348

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NOG
NOG18.2%46.5%0.49-
Sector ETF (XLE)43.9%23.4%1.4876.9%
Equity (SPY)11.8%13.7%0.55-18.4%
Gold (GLD)-6.6%28.9%-0.24-7.0%
Commodities (DBC)32.8%21.3%1.2259.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)9.8%14.2%0.41-18.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-28.5%43.4%-0.66-2.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NOG
NOG5.8%48.4%0.28-
Sector ETF (XLE)21.6%25.6%0.7480.4%
Equity (SPY)11.6%17.3%0.5036.6%
Gold (GLD)16.2%19.2%0.684.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%19.6%0.3059.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.4%18.9%-0.0423.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)3.7%51.5%0.2515.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NOG
NOG5.0%70.0%0.38-
Sector ETF (XLE)11.0%29.7%0.4063.9%
Equity (SPY)15.5%18.0%0.7334.5%
Gold (GLD)11.1%16.6%0.542.3%
Commodities (DBC)7.6%18.1%0.3348.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%20.7%0.2524.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.4%66.3%0.988.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152026-2.8%
Average Daily Volume1.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest12.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity105.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares18.7%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/13/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20263.2%11.7% 
8/6/20266.5%20.6%27.8%
4/28/20261.4%-3.3%-21.1%
2/25/2026-0.9%7.2%14.8%
11/6/20255.5%7.9%18.9%
7/31/2025-11.1%-12.4%-7.1%
4/29/2025-1.9%-1.3%9.7%
2/19/2025-0.1%-9.4%-13.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161616
# Negative10109
Median Positive5.6%7.8%13.2%
Median Negative-1.8%-5.1%-11.8%
Max Positive11.7%23.7%128.3%
Max Negative-11.1%-12.4%-21.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20263.2%11.7% 
8/6/20266.5%20.6%27.8%
4/28/20261.4%-3.3%-21.1%
2/25/2026-0.9%7.2%14.8%
11/6/20255.5%7.9%18.9%
7/31/2025-11.1%-12.4%-7.1%
4/29/2025-1.9%-1.3%9.7%
2/19/2025-0.1%-9.4%-13.0%
11/5/202411.7%10.7%12.9%
7/30/20246.3%-10.4%-2.2%
4/30/2024-2.7%-0.2%-1.8%
2/22/2024-0.1%3.2%12.8%
11/1/20232.3%-5.7%0.2%
8/2/20235.6%7.7%6.2%
5/4/20232.9%1.6%0.5%
2/23/20231.0%2.4%-10.8%
11/8/2022-3.5%6.6%-11.8%
8/3/2022-6.6%2.4%10.3%
5/5/20227.1%-4.4%25.4%
2/24/20221.5%10.4%26.2%
11/5/20216.5%-0.7%-19.0%
8/5/20216.9%11.0%9.2%
5/7/20219.5%0.1%28.0%
3/12/2021-1.4%-12.2%-17.0%
1/7/20211.8%13.9%13.4%
11/6/2020-1.7%23.7%128.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161616
# Negative10109
Median Positive5.6%7.8%13.2%
Median Negative-1.8%-5.1%-11.8%
Max Positive11.7%23.7%128.3%
Max Negative-11.1%-12.4%-21.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/06/202610-Q
06/30/202608/07/202610-Q
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/07/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/06/202610-Q
06/30/202608/07/202610-Q
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/07/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q
12/31/202102/25/202210-K
09/30/202111/05/202110-Q
06/30/202108/05/202110-Q
03/31/202105/07/202110-Q
12/31/202003/12/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/07/202010-Q
03/31/202005/11/202010-Q
12/31/201903/12/202010-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 11/6/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Dividends Per ShareReported 0.45    
2026 Annual Production (2-stream, Boe per day)Reported0.15 Mil0.15 Mil0.15 Mil   
2026 Annual Oil Production (Bbls per day)Reported717507262573500   
2026 Net Total Wells Turned-in-LineReported747576   
2026 LOE/Production Expenses (per Boe)Reported9.759.89.85   
2026 Oil Differential to NYMEX WTI (per Bbl)Reported-4.5-4.25-4   
2026 Gas Realization % of NYMEX Henry Hub (per Mcf)Reported77.5%80.0%82.5%   
2026 DD&A Rate (per Boe)Reported1515.2515.5   
2026 General and Administrative Expense Non-Cash (per Boe)Reported0.250.280.3   
2026 General and Administrative Expense Cash (per Boe)Reported0.850.880.9   
2026 Production Taxes (as a percentage of Oil & Gas Sales)Reported7.0%7.13%7.25%   
2026 Total Budgeted Capital ExpendituresReported850.00 Mil875.00 Mil900.00 Mil   


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Annual ProductionReported0.14 Mil0.15 Mil0.15 Mil   
2026 Annual Oil ProductionReported715007250073500   
2026 Net Total Wells Turned-in-LineReported747576   
2026 Total Budgeted Capital ExpendituresReported850.00 Mil875.00 Mil900.00 Mil   

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 TILs AccelerationReported      

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Annual ProductionReported0.14 Mil0.14 Mil0.15 Mil7.7% Higher NewActual: 0.13 Mil for 2025
2026 Annual Oil ProductionReported680007200076000-5.0% Lower NewActual: 75750 for 2025
2026 Net Total Wells Turned-in-LineReported67.577.2587   
2026 Total Capital ExpendituresReported850.00 Mil975.00 Mil1.10 Bil-1.3% Lower NewActual: 987.50 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 10/5/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Akradi, Bahram DirectBuy624202619.4025,760499,74133,240,642Form
2Easley, Roy Ernest DirectBuy1212202523.3810,000233,8371,943,934Form
3Easley, Roy Ernest DirectBuy1212202524.4615,000366,9331,788,970Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Akradi, Bahram DirectBuy624202619.4025,760499,74133,240,642Form
2Easley, Roy Ernest DirectBuy1212202523.3810,000233,8371,943,934Form
3Easley, Roy Ernest DirectBuy1212202524.4615,000366,9331,788,970Form

NOG Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Avoid

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Northern Oil & Gas shows impressive operational momentum, with record Q3 production driving a full-year guidance increase. However, this growth is built on a fragile financial foundation. The company's high debt levels and its practice of funding shareholder returns from its balance sheet rather than cash flow present significant risks that outweigh the current production growth story.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity Producer

Revenue = Production Volume (Boe) x Realized Price ($/Boe) Sourcing and acquiring non-operated interests at attractive, accretive valuations and managing commodity price exposure through a disciplined hedging program to protect cash flows.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can an acquisition-led production ramp-up create value ahead of balance sheet risks?

Evidence points to accelerating operational momentum, but the financial structure to support it appears weak.

Mechanism: Continued acquisitions and well completions drive production volumes higher. Q3 2026 production hit a record 156,239 Boe/day, leading to a raised 2026 guidance of 147 thousand Boe/day, which could boost cash flow and enable deleveraging.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Latest-quarter revenue growth accelerated to 45.2% year-over-year.
  • Average daily production reached a record 156,239 Boe per day in Q3 2026.
  • Full-year 2026 production guidance was raised to a new midpoint of 147 thousand Boe per day.
  • The company turned 23.9 net wells in line in Q3, nearly double the prior quarter's pace.
PRIMARY RISK
Unsustainable Payouts & High Leverage

The company is funding its dividend and buybacks with debt or balance sheet cash, not internal cash flow, while leverage calculated by standard measures is high and rising.

Mechanism: A downturn in commodity prices or operational performance could strain the company's ability to service its debt, forcing a cut to shareholder returns.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was negative at $-206.3 million.
  • Net debt is 6.91 times trailing-twelve-month EBITDA.
  • The payout funding ratio is -0.77, indicating returns are not funded by cash flow.
  • Net debt increased to $2.6 billion from $2.3 billion a year earlier.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Total Production (Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day)Approximately 156,239 BOE per day for Q3 2026 - AcceleratingThis follows a period of strong well performance.
Net Wells Added to Production23.9 net wells in Q3 2026 - Turning aroundWell completion activity ramped up significantly in the third quarter, with 23.9 net wells turned to production. This is a sharp increase from the 6.0 net wells added in Q1 and an implied ~12 net wells in Q2, and is comparable to the 24.2 net wells added in Q4 2025, indicating a strong recovery in development pace.
Net Debt to LQA Adjusted EBITDAsub-1.5x (Q3 2026)Market rewards The company's long-term goal is maintaining leverage at or near 1.0x Debt / Adjusted EBITDA.. A key leverage metric indicating the company's debt level relative to its recent cash-generating ability, which management is focused on improving.
Core Investment Debate

Operational Momentum vs. Financial Fragility

BULL VIEW

Bulls focus on the accelerating production, evidenced by the 45.2% Q3 revenue growth and raised guidance. They believe this operational inflection will soon generate enough cash to fix the balance sheet and justify the valuation.

CORE TENSION

Can the recent production surge, with Q3 volumes at 156,239 Boe/day, generate enough future cash to overcome the structural weakness of a balance sheet with a negative $-206.3M TTM free cash flow?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

The latest evidence favors the bears. While production growth is strong, the TTM financials confirm that shareholder returns are being funded by debt, a practice that is unsustainable, especially with high existing leverage.

BEAR VIEW

Bears point to the negative TTM free cash flow of $-206.3 million and high net debt of 6.91x TTM EBITDA. They argue the company is unsustainably funding its dividend with debt, creating significant financial risk.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
2/16/2027
Peer-Signaled Cost or Activity Headwinds
Watch: Peer commentary indicating rising well costs, service constraints, or reduced drilling activity in shared basins like the Permian and Williston.
2/22/2027
Peer Earnings Reports
Watch: Peers Viper Energy (VNOM) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are scheduled to report earnings.
2/26/2027
Debt Covenant and Service Strain
Watch: Deterioration in reported leverage or coverage ratios in the next earnings report, or any discussion of covenant waivers.
2/26/2027
Quarterly Earnings Report
Watch: Northern Oil & Gas is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings.
3/1/2027
Peer Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Vitesse Energy (VTS) is scheduled to report earnings.
No set date
Unsustainable Shareholder Payouts
Watch: Any reduction in the quarterly dividend from the guided $0.45 per share, or a suspension of the buyback program.
No set date
Williston Basin Infrastructure Disruption
Watch: A Record of Decision from the USACE regarding the DAPL easement or further court rulings in the ongoing litigation.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-11-05
Q3 Results and Guidance Raise
Details: The company announced third quarter results and raised its 2026 production guidance. The stock reacted positively, up 3.0% over two days.
+2.6%
$22.27 -> $22.84
2026-10-07
Third Quarter Earnings Scheduled
Details: The company scheduled its third quarter 2026 financial and operating results release for November 5, 2026.
+5.1%
$23.91 -> $25.14
2026-08-19
Senior Notes Offering Announced
Details: The company announced a proposed $500 million private offering of senior notes, which was priced later the same day.
+6.0%
$24.90 -> $26.39
2026-08-07
Positive Q2 Earnings Reaction
Details:
+15.8%
$19.89 -> $23.03
2026-07-13
Second Quarter Operational Update
Details: The company provided an operational update, reiterating its 2026 production and capital expenditure guidance.
+8.7%
$18.16 -> $19.75
2026-05-13
Quarterly Dividend Declared
Details: The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.45 per share, equal to the prior quarter's amount.
-2.1%
$22.86 -> $22.37
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: NOG trades at roughly 49% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (3.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
VNOM - Viper Energy
Higher-Margin Peer

NOG's TTM operating margin is 33.4%.

Core Thesis: Invest in a non-operator with superior asset quality, demonstrated by higher margins and strong free cash flow generation.
FANG - a business partner
Large-Scale Operator

As a large, integrated operator with revenue 7.8 times NOG's, Diamondback offers exposure to a more scaled and efficient business model, evidenced by its strong free-cash-flow margin.

Core Thesis: Gain exposure to the Permian basin through a large, efficient operator with a proven record of generating significant free cash flow.
How Is The Market Pricing NOG?

NOG is a diversified capital allocator in the energy sector, functioning like a publicly-traded portfolio of non-operated interests in oil and gas wells, focused on generating free cash flow for shareholder returns.

NOG's business model is to be a financial partner, not a field operator. It spreads capital across thousands of wells managed by over 100 different operators, primarily in top US basins. This diversification mitigates single-well or single-operator risk. Growth comes from constantly acquiring more interests through its 'ground game' and larger M&A, aiming to build a cash-generating machine that can fund a growing dividend and share buybacks, while navigating commodity cycles through active hedging.

What will confirm the thesis

Continued accretive acquisitions, raising production guidance, reducing leverage metrics, and increasing shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) funded by free cash flow.

What will damage the thesis

A sustained downturn in commodity prices that overwhelms hedges, a slowdown in acquisition opportunities, or poor performance from key operating partners leading to production misses.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarter-to-quarter volatility in well completion timing, short-term swings in commodity prices for which the company is hedged, and non-cash impairment charges or derivative marks.

Repricing Catalyst

Management believes the stock trades at a deep discount to the underlying value of its assets and has signaled an intent to close this gap through portfolio optimization, which could include divestitures, and by returning capital to shareholders via its buyback program.

What NOG Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
Acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties
$1.9B TTM (100% of Total)
What It Is

The company invests in non-operated minority working and mineral interests in oil and natural gas properties located primarily in the Williston, Permian, Appalachian, Uinta, and Duvernay Basins. It does not sell a product directly but receives its share of revenue from the oil and gas produced and sold from these properties.

Who Pays & How

Over 100 third-party operating partners manage the production and sale of commodities on NOG's behalf, remitting NOG's share of the revenue. The ultimate customers are purchasers of oil and gas who buy the production at market prices.

Revenue is based on prevailing market prices for oil and natural gas, typically reflecting a discount or premium to benchmark prices (NYMEX WTI and Henry Hub) due to transportation costs and regional supply/demand dynamics.
Competition
The oil and gas industry is intensely competitive, with many competitors having substantially greater financial and technical resources.
NOG's non-operator model allows it to diversify investment risk across a large number of wells, basins, and operators, providing capital flexibility and avoiding direct exploratory and infrastructure costs.
NOG Evolution: Price Return by Era
Prior to 2020 · Williston Basin Focus
-61%
The company's operations were exclusively focused on oil-weighted properties within the Williston Basin.
2020 - Present · Multi-Basin Diversification
+40%
Since 2020, NOG has significantly expanded its footprint through acquisitions, diversifying into the Permian, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins. In 2026, the company further expanded into the Duvernay Basin in Canada, transforming into a multi-basin, multi-commodity platform.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is mildly positive. The trend shows early signs of health but hasn't fully committed. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is clearly negative. The market punished the print and the drift confirms distribution. Thesis is under pressure.
① Structure
+1
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-2 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · Golden Cross ▾
2 Momentum Pausing ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Falling ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Diminishing Reward ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/12/2026