Cameco (CCJ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $89.58 | Market Cap: $39.0 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Coal & Consumable Fuels
Cameco (CCJ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $89.58Market Cap: $39.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Coal & Consumable Fuels
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 69x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Datacenter Power, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Nuclear Power Generation Fuel, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 94% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Datacenter Power, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Nuclear Power Generation Fuel, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 69x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 94% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CCJ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the public company Cameco (CCJ), several key factors influenced its stock performance during a recent period, which could contribute to a significant upward movement.
1. Strong Financial Performance and Outlook: Cameco reported a strong financial outlook for 2024, with expectations of robust cash flow generation and increased consolidated revenue, and announced a dividend growth plan aiming to double the 2023 dividend by 2026. The company's Q3 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $308 million, with adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2024 reaching $1.0 billion. Additionally, Cameco raised its estimated consolidated revenue for 2024 to between $3.01 billion and $3.16 billion.
2. Increased Production and Sales Volumes: Cameco demonstrated strong operational performance with increased production rates and higher sales volumes across its uranium and fuel services segments. Notably, the Key Lake mill set a new annual production record in 2024. The fuel services segment's production also significantly increased by 60% year-over-year in Q3 2024.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CCJ Return | 51% | 63% | 4% | 90% | 19% | 72% | 911% |
| Peers Return | 39% | 51% | 6% | 811% | -2% | 44% | 2729% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CCJ Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 53% | 40% | 67% | 48% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CCJ Max Drawdown | -38% | -8% | -16% | -1% | -14% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -9% | -17% | -16% | -24% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EU, NC, CCJ, UEC, NXE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CCJ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 396 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1138 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 370.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5809 days | 1480 days |
Compare to EU, NC, CCJ, UEC, NXE
In The Past
Cameco's stock fell -34.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -34.8% loss requires a 53.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Cameco Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CCJ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cameco
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 67 |
| Op Inc LTM | -73 |
| FCF LTM | -55 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -36 |
| CFO LTM | -23 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -32 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -14.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -63.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -187.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -14.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -51.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 11.3 |
| P/EBIT | -5.8 |
| P/E | -6.8 |
| P/CFO | -23.5 |
| Total Yield | -2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 45.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 50.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 247.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 30.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 36.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 185.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3222024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3292023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3222022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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