Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.14 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.14Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 96% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 96% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NOG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) stock moved by -7.1% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Several analyst firms lowered their ratings or price targets for NOG during this period. Mizuho cut its target price from $32.00 to $28.00 in mid-September, assigning a "neutral" rating. Morgan Stanley reiterated an "underweight" rating in mid-October, reducing its price target from $27.00 to $26.00. Citigroup also decreased its price objective from $32.00 to $28.00 in late October.
2. Broader Market Sentiments and Commodity Price Volatility: Despite NOG boosting its 2025 production outlook in late October, its stock price experienced a sharp decline of over 22% in the preceding month. This divergence was attributed to broader market sentiments and prevailing volatile commodity price trends, which exerted significant influence on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NOG Return | -63% | 137% | 55% | 26% | 5% | -36% | 15% |
| Peers Return | -43% | 65% | 84% | 10% | -19% | 4% | 59% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NOG Win Rate | 33% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 62% | 63% | 53% | 37% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NOG Max Drawdown | -85% | 0% | 0% | -14% | -14% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -74% | -7% | 0% | -17% | -27% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVI, KOS, BSM, COP, CNQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -85.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 588.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 332 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -83.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 504.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 335 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 650.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CVI, KOS, BSM, COP, CNQ
In The Past
Northern Oil & Gas's stock fell -39.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/10/2022. A -39.4% loss requires a 65.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NOG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Northern Oil & Gas
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,746 |
| Op Inc LTM | 497 |
| FCF LTM | 47 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 305 |
| CFO LTM | 909 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 980 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 13.3 |
| P/CFO | 4.5 |
| Total Yield | 10.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties | 2,166 | ||||
| Gain (Loss) on Commodity Derivatives, Net | -415 | -478 | 228 | -129 | |
| Natural Gas and Natural gas liquids (NGL) Revenues | 511 | 202 | 19 | 27 | |
| Oil Revenues | 1,475 | 773 | 305 | 575 | |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 2,166 | 1,571 | 497 | 552 | 472 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |