Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)
Market Price (6/27/2026): $19.3 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)
Market Price (6/27/2026): $19.3Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 69% Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 9.3% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 133% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.2% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -28% Key risksNOG key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and the potential inability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its obligations, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 69% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 9.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 133% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -28% |
| Key risksNOG key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and the potential inability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its obligations, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) stock has lost about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant GAAP Net Loss in Fiscal Q1 2026 Driven by Non-Cash Charges.
Northern Oil & Gas reported a substantial GAAP net loss of $522.8 million, or a $5.31 loss per basic and diluted share, for fiscal Q1 2026 (period ending March 31, 2026). This loss was primarily due to a non-cash unrealized mark-to-market loss on derivatives of approximately $521.4 million and a non-cash ceiling test impairment charge of $268.3 million on its oil and gas assets, attributed to lower average oil prices. While the company did report an Adjusted Net Income of $74.7 million, or $0.74 per adjusted diluted share, beating analyst expectations, the large GAAP losses likely created significant investor concern.
2. Weakening and Volatile Crude Oil Prices.
The period saw significant volatility and a notable decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude eased below $100 per barrel in the final week of May 2026, having reached a local peak of $114 per barrel earlier in the month. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that the Brent crude oil spot price fell in May 2026 following reductions in oil demand and reports of a possible agreement between the United States and Iran. For fiscal Q3 2026, Westpac forecasts an average Brent price of $87 per barrel, a 13% reduction from their previous update. This downward pressure and uncertainty in the crude oil market negatively impacted the stock.
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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) stock has lost about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant GAAP Net Loss in Fiscal Q1 2026 Driven by Non-Cash Charges.
Northern Oil & Gas reported a substantial GAAP net loss of $522.8 million, or a $5.31 loss per basic and diluted share, for fiscal Q1 2026 (period ending March 31, 2026). This loss was primarily due to a non-cash unrealized mark-to-market loss on derivatives of approximately $521.4 million and a non-cash ceiling test impairment charge of $268.3 million on its oil and gas assets, attributed to lower average oil prices. While the company did report an Adjusted Net Income of $74.7 million, or $0.74 per adjusted diluted share, beating analyst expectations, the large GAAP losses likely created significant investor concern.
2. Weakening and Volatile Crude Oil Prices.
The period saw significant volatility and a notable decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude eased below $100 per barrel in the final week of May 2026, having reached a local peak of $114 per barrel earlier in the month. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that the Brent crude oil spot price fell in May 2026 following reductions in oil demand and reports of a possible agreement between the United States and Iran. For fiscal Q3 2026, Westpac forecasts an average Brent price of $87 per barrel, a 13% reduction from their previous update. This downward pressure and uncertainty in the crude oil market negatively impacted the stock.
3. Depressed Natural Gas Prices and Unfavorable Realizations.
Natural gas prices remained subdued throughout the period. The Henry Hub June contract closed at $3.04 per MMBtu on May 27, 2026, but was still 23.12% lower than a year ago as of June 18, 2026. Northern Oil & Gas's fiscal Q1 2026 net realized gas price was $2.50 per Mcf, representing only a 72% realization compared with Henry Hub pricing. This was further exacerbated by a lack of takeaway capacity in the Permian Basin, which put additional pressure on natural gas realizations.
4. Broader Energy Sector Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Factors.
Beyond specific commodity prices, the broader energy sector faced uncertainty. Geopolitical developments, such as the conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, initially led to price elevation but later saw expectations of a ceasefire, contributing to price volatility and an uncertain outlook for global oil supply and demand. The EIA's forecast indicated that natural gas prices would remain relatively flat in 2026 as supply growth was expected to outpace demand, suggesting a challenging pricing environment for gas-focused production.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.5% change in NOG stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.19 | 19.17 | -29.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,095 | 2,059 | -1.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 0.9 | -27.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 99 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOG | -29.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | -35.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | -3.1% | 80.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.3% change in NOG stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.61 | 19.17 | -11.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,193 | 2,059 | -6.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.0 | 0.9 | -4.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 99 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOG | -11.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | -15.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 20.8% | 77.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.9% change in NOG stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.85 | 19.17 | -22.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,209 | 2,059 | -6.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.1 | 0.9 | -17.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 99 | 99 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOG | -22.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.1% | 4.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 36.3% | 78.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.9% change in NOG stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.54 | 19.17 | -24.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,958 | 2,059 | 5.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.1 | 0.9 | -17.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 85 | 99 | -13.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOG | -24.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 39.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 55.0% | 81.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NOG Return | 137% | 55% | 26% | 5% | -38% | -7% | 178% |
| Peers Return | 66% | 40% | -0% | 46% | -16% | 12% | 217% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NOG Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 64% | 56% | 62% | 62% | 38% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NOG Max Drawdown | -33% | -39% | -24% | -21% | -50% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -25% | -35% | -22% | -32% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VTS, GRNT, VNOM, TPL, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -65.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1683 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 204 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -45.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Northern Oil & Gas's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -65.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1683 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 204 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -45.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 213.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Northern Oil & Gas's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG) is an independent energy company primarily engaged in the upstream sector of the oil and natural gas industry. The company's core business involves the full lifecycle of crude oil and natural gas properties, from their acquisition and exploration to their exploitation, development, and eventual production.
NOG's main products are crude oil and natural gas, which it extracts from its holdings across significant resource plays within the United States. The company's operations are concentrated in prolific regions such as the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin. Its primary market consists of the broader energy sector, where the crude oil and natural gas it produces are sold to refiners, pipelines, and other energy distributors for further processing and consumption across various industries and end-users in the U.S.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Northern Oil & Gas:
- It's like a pure-play oil and gas producer, similar to the upstream division of ExxonMobil.
- Think of it as a mining company like Barrick Gold, but for crude oil and natural gas.
- It's like an asset management firm for oil and gas properties, acquiring and developing them for production, similar to how Blackstone manages real estate.
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- Crude Oil: Northern Oil & Gas produces crude oil from its interests in various basins across the United States.
- Natural Gas: Northern Oil & Gas produces natural gas from its interests in various basins across the United States.
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- Refiners: Companies that process crude oil into various refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
- Integrated Oil Companies: Large companies involved in multiple aspects of the oil and gas industry, from exploration and production to refining, marketing, and distribution.
- Pipeline and Midstream Companies: Entities responsible for gathering, processing, and transporting crude oil and natural gas from production sites to market hubs or processing facilities.
- Marketing Companies: Trading firms or marketing divisions of larger energy companies that purchase crude oil and natural gas for resale or further distribution.
- Representative Refiners:
- Representative Integrated Oil Companies:
- Representative Pipeline and Midstream Companies:
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Nicholas O'Grady, Chief Executive Officer
Nicholas O'Grady has served as Chief Executive Officer of Northern Oil & Gas since January 2020 and was named to NOG's Board of Directors in 2024. He joined NOG in June 2018 as Chief Financial Officer and also held the title of President from September 2019 until his promotion to CEO. Mr. O'Grady leads the NOG team in all aspects of the business, including acquisitions, investments, financial management, and business strategy. Over his tenure, the NOG team has executed acquisitions and related financings worth billions of dollars. Prior to NOG, he had nearly two decades of energy-related finance experience as an investment banker and a principal investor. Mr. O'Grady began his career in the Natural Resources investment banking group at Bank of America. He later worked at asset management firms such as Highbridge Capital Management and Hudson Bay Capital Management, where he focused on energy-related equities, public credit, and private and direct investments.
Chad Allen, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Allen leads all accounting, financial, and public company-related functions as Chief Financial Officer for Northern Oil & Gas. He previously served as Chief Accounting Officer since August 2016 and as the company's Corporate Controller since joining Northern in August 2013. Mr. Allen also served as the company's Interim Chief Financial Officer from January to May 2018. Before joining Northern, Mr. Allen was in the audit practice with Grant Thornton LLP from 2010 to 2013, and with McGladrey & Pullen, LLP from 2004 to 2010.
Adam Dirlam, President
Mr. Dirlam leads the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital allocation efforts at Northern Oil & Gas. He previously served as Chief Operating Officer since January 2020 and as Executive Vice President - Land since May 2018. Mr. Dirlam has held various other roles with the company since 2009. Prior to his tenure at Northern, Mr. Dirlam served in various finance and accounting roles for Honeywell International.
James Evans, Chief Technical Officer
Mr. Evans oversees all aspects of Northern Oil & Gas's engineering process, including the valuation of properties, reserves, and production forecasting. He was named Chief Technical Officer in April 2023, and prior to that, served as Executive Vice President & Chief Engineer since February 2021 and Senior Vice President of Engineering since January 2020. Mr. Evans has been with NOG since 2013, holding numerous progressive engineering roles. He began his career as a Reservoir Engineer with Cabot Oil & Gas and also worked for Cornerstone Natural Resources and Fidelity Exploration.
Erik Romslo, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Mr. Romslo oversees all legal, regulatory, and SEC-related matters as Chief Legal Officer and facilitates all Board functions as Secretary. He joined Northern Oil & Gas as General Counsel and Secretary in October 2011, and was promoted to Executive Vice President in January 2013, before becoming Chief Legal Officer in January 2020. Before joining the company, Mr. Romslo practiced law in the Minneapolis office of Faegre Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP (formerly Faegre & Benson LLP) from 2005 until 2011, where he was a member of the Corporate group.
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Key Risks to Northern Oil & Gas
- Commodity Price Volatility: As an independent energy company, Northern Oil & Gas's revenues are significantly influenced by the fluctuating prices of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). These prices are highly volatile and subject to numerous factors beyond the company's control, including global supply and demand, geopolitical events, and actions by organizations like OPEC+. While Northern Oil & Gas employs hedging strategies to mitigate some of this volatility, these measures only partially reduce the risk and do not eliminate it entirely. Extended periods of low commodity prices can adversely affect the company's financial position, results of operations, cash flow, and the economic viability of its reserves.
- Dependency on Third-Party Operators: Northern Oil & Gas operates as a non-operator, meaning it acquires working interests in wells but relies on third parties for drilling, completion, and overall operational management. This business model means that NOG has limited control over operational decisions, the timing of well completions, and the execution of development plans. The success of its business, therefore, extensively depends on the performance and financial stability of these third-party operators. Operator deferrals or challenges faced by these operators, particularly in a low commodity price environment, can negatively impact NOG's production, cash flow, and financial condition.
- Financial Leverage and Debt: Northern Oil & Gas carries a significant debt load, which poses a substantial financial risk. The company's liabilities are considerable compared to its cash and near-term receivables, suggesting that shareholders should closely monitor its debt management. Historically, Northern Oil & Gas has experienced periods of negative free cash flow, raising questions about its long-term financial flexibility. High debt levels can lead to increased financing costs and may necessitate raising new equity capital at potentially unfavorable prices, leading to shareholder dilution. Furthermore, covenants within the instruments governing its indebtedness may restrict the company's ability to pay dividends.
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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) primarily focuses on the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties across various basins in the United States, including the Williston, Appalachian, Permian, and Uinta Basins. Therefore, its addressable markets are the crude oil and natural gas markets within the U.S.
The overall U.S. oil and gas market was estimated at approximately USD 1.55 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 1.61 trillion in 2025. This market is expected to reach around USD 2.24 trillion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.75% between 2025 and 2034.
Specifically for natural gas, the U.S. natural gas market size is valued at approximately USD 473.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 601.8 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.5% during this forecast period.
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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Strategic Acquisitions and "Ground Game" Initiatives: Northern Oil & Gas consistently pursues strategic acquisitions, focusing on non-operated working interests and "ground game" opportunities. These involve acquiring small, accretive working-interest packages with near-term cash flow and low-risk proved undeveloped (PUD) conversions. For example, in October 2024, NOG acquired a 20% interest in Uinta Basin assets for approximately $511.3 million, and in February 2025, it expanded its Permian Basin footprint by acquiring 2,275 net acres for $40 million. This ongoing strategy of bolt-on acquisitions and ground game purchases contributes significantly to expanding its asset base and, consequently, its production capacity and revenue.
- Multi-Basin Diversification and Expansion: The company is strategically rebalancing its portfolio to mitigate basin-specific risks and enhance cash flow. This involves shifting from a concentration in the Bakken to an oil-weighted Permian footprint and incorporating gas optionality in the Marcellus and Appalachian basins. NOG's growth strategy emphasizes multi-basin diversification, including targeted expansion into the Permian and Marcellus, and has expanded its operational footprint into new territories like the Uinta Basin.
- Increased Production from Existing and New Assets: NOG aims to sustain and grow production volumes through capital efficiency and the development of its extensive inventory. The company targets thousands of future gross locations by adding de-risked locations across its various basins through quarterly bolt-ons. For instance, in Q4 2025, Northern Oil & Gas reported an average daily production of 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, a 7% increase from Q3 2025, with natural gas production reaching a record 392 million cubic feet (MMcf) per day, up 24% from Q4 2024. The company has also provided 2026 guidance projecting production between 139,000 and 148,000 BOE per day.
- Technological Innovation and Operational Efficiency: Northern Oil & Gas is focusing on leveraging data and advanced techniques to maximize performance across its diverse, non-operated portfolio. This commitment to technological innovation and operational efficiency helps to optimize production from its assets and can lead to increased output and potentially lower operating costs, thereby positively impacting revenue.
- Shift to Drill-Ready Projects: In 2026, Northern Oil & Gas plans to adjust its "ground game" strategy by transitioning from leasing activities to focusing more on drill-ready projects. This shift is anticipated to capitalize on opportunities that were previously less attractive, potentially leading to a more immediate realization of production and revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Northern Oil & Gas increased its share repurchase authorization by $100 million in March 2025, adding to an existing $100 million remaining on the program.
- In 2024, the company repurchased 2,535,391 shares at a weighted average price of $37.27, contributing to approximately $260 million in total shareholder returns for the year.
- During the first three quarters of 2025, NOG completed $50.0 million in common stock repurchases, as part of $179.7 million returned to shareholders. In Q2 2025, over 1.1 million shares were repurchased at an average price of $31.15 per share.
Share Issuance
- In March 2026, Northern Oil & Gas completed a public offering of 7,207,208 common shares, raising approximately $200 million in gross proceeds. The net proceeds are designated for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility.
- The company issued $200 million in 3.625% convertible unsecured notes due April 2029 in September 2025, generating approximately $211.2 million in gross proceeds.
Outbound Investments
- Since 2018, NOG has executed over $5.0 billion in bolt-on strategic acquisitions and numerous "Ground-Game" interests in wells and drill-cos.
- In February 2026, NOG completed the acquisition of non-operated interests in the Utica Shale in Ohio from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream for a cash payment of $464.5 million, securing a 40% stake in these assets.
- In October 2024, NOG finalized the acquisition of Uinta Basin assets from XCL Resources, LLC for $511.3 million in cash, and in September 2024, acquired Delaware Basin assets from Point Energy Partners for $205.0 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Total capital expenditures for 2025 were approximately $1.0 billion, which included $173.5 million for elective ground game opportunities. Initial guidance for 2025 capex ranged from $1,050 million to $1,200 million, later reduced to $925 million to $1,050 million.
- The primary focus of 2025 capital spending was on the Permian Basin (57-66%), followed by the Williston, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins.
- For 2026, the capital budget is designed to drive growth, with an anticipated activity split of 40% in the Permian, 25% in Appalachia, 25% in Williston, and 10% in Uinta Basins.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,250 |
| Op Inc LTM | 585 |
| FCF LTM | -155 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -171 |
| CFO LTM | 866 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 672 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -17.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -6.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 38.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 65.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 66.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -10.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.7 |
| P/EBIT | -29.9 |
| P/E | -10.6 |
| P/CFO | 4.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties | 2,476 | 2,226 | 2,166 | ||
| Gain (Loss) on Commodity Derivatives, Net | -415 | -478 | |||
| Natural Gas and Natural gas liquids (NGL) Revenues | 511 | 202 | |||
| Oil Revenues | 1,475 | 773 | |||
| Other | 0 | ||||
| Total | 2,476 | 2,226 | 2,166 | 1,571 | 497 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $19.17 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/13/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -37.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $23.18 | $23.75 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -17.3% | -19.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 43.7% | 44.8% |
| Downside Capture | 26.03 | 24.24 |
| Upside Capture | -151.92 | -24.29 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -40.0% | 4.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -2.82 | -2.65 | -1.39 | -0.68 | 0.18 | 1.11 |
| Up Beta | -4.52 | -3.21 | -2.14 | -1.47 | -0.46 | 1.29 |
| Down Beta | -4.90 | -4.46 | -0.85 | 0.51 | 1.33 | 1.72 |
| Up Capture | -246% | -149% | -104% | -46% | -6% | 25% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 36 | 68 | 130 | 406 |
| Down Capture | -21% | -227% | -116% | -124% | 11% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 27 | 56 | 118 | 338 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOG | -28.7% | 44.8% | -0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 30.5% | 20.8% | 1.18 | 78.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.4% | 1.26 | 5.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.7% | 0.70 | -3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.8% | 18.6% | 0.92 | 51.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.1% | 13.6% | 0.85 | -1.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.7% | 42.5% | -1.27 | 14.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOG | 4.4% | 49.1% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 19.9% | 26.0% | 0.69 | 79.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 39.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 58.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.9% | 0.08 | 25.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.7% | 54.0% | 0.39 | 15.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOG | -6.1% | 70.5% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.3% | 29.6% | 0.35 | 63.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 35.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.1% | 0.60 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 47.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 25.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 54.6% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 9.3% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.4% | -3.3% | -21.1% |
| 2/25/2026 | -0.9% | 7.2% | 16.5% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.5% | 7.9% | 18.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | -11.1% | -12.4% | -7.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | -1.9% | -1.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.1% | -9.4% | -13.0% |
| 11/5/2024 | 11.7% | 10.7% | 12.9% |
| 7/30/2024 | 6.3% | -10.4% | -2.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 7.4% | 12.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -5.7% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 23.7% | 128.3% |
| Max Negative | -11.1% | -12.4% | -28.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.4% | -3.3% | -21.1% |
| 2/25/2026 | -0.9% | 7.2% | 16.5% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.5% | 7.9% | 18.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | -11.1% | -12.4% | -7.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | -1.9% | -1.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.1% | -9.4% | -13.0% |
| 11/5/2024 | 11.7% | 10.7% | 12.9% |
| 7/30/2024 | 6.3% | -10.4% | -2.2% |
| 4/30/2024 | -2.7% | -0.2% | -1.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | -0.1% | 3.2% | 12.8% |
| 11/1/2023 | 2.3% | -5.7% | 0.2% |
| 8/2/2023 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| 5/4/2023 | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.0% | 2.4% | -10.8% |
| 11/8/2022 | -3.5% | 6.6% | -11.8% |
| 8/3/2022 | -6.6% | 2.4% | 10.3% |
| 5/5/2022 | 7.1% | -4.4% | 25.4% |
| 2/24/2022 | 1.5% | 10.4% | 26.2% |
| 11/5/2021 | 6.5% | -0.7% | -19.0% |
| 8/5/2021 | 6.9% | 11.0% | 9.2% |
| 5/7/2021 | 9.5% | 0.1% | 28.0% |
| 3/12/2021 | -1.4% | -12.2% | -17.0% |
| 1/7/2021 | 1.8% | 13.9% | 13.4% |
| 11/6/2020 | -1.7% | 23.7% | 128.3% |
| 8/7/2020 | -3.1% | -6.0% | -28.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 7.4% | 12.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -5.7% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 23.7% | 128.3% |
| Max Negative | -11.1% | -12.4% | -28.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/12/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/12/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Annual Production | 0.14 Mil | 0.14 Mil | 0.15 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.14 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Annual Oil Production | 68,000 | 72,000 | 76,000 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 72,000 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Capital Expenditures | 850.00 Mil | 975.00 Mil | 1.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 975.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Total Wells Turned-in-Line | 67.5 | 77.2 | 87 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 77.2 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Annual Production | 0.14 Mil | 0.14 Mil | 0.15 Mil | 7.7% | Raised | Guidance: 0.13 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Annual Oil Production | 68,000 | 72,000 | 76,000 | -5.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 75,750 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total Capital Expenditures | 850.00 Mil | 975.00 Mil | 1.10 Bil | -1.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 987.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Total Wells Turned-in-Line | 67.5 | 77.2 | 87 | ||||
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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