Tearsheet

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.14 | Market Cap: $2.3 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.14
Market Cap: $2.3 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 96%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4%
3   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 96%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NOG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) stock moved by -7.1% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Several analyst firms lowered their ratings or price targets for NOG during this period. Mizuho cut its target price from $32.00 to $28.00 in mid-September, assigning a "neutral" rating. Morgan Stanley reiterated an "underweight" rating in mid-October, reducing its price target from $27.00 to $26.00. Citigroup also decreased its price objective from $32.00 to $28.00 in late October.

2. Broader Market Sentiments and Commodity Price Volatility: Despite NOG boosting its 2025 production outlook in late October, its stock price experienced a sharp decline of over 22% in the preceding month. This divergence was attributed to broader market sentiments and prevailing volatile commodity price trends, which exerted significant influence on the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NOG Return-63%137%55%26%5%-36%15%
Peers Return-43%65%84%10%-19%4%59%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NOG Win Rate33%67%67%50%58%20% 
Peers Win Rate42%62%63%53%37%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NOG Max Drawdown-85%0%0%-14%-14%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown-74%-7%0%-17%-27%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVI, KOS, BSM, COP, CNQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNOGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-39.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-85.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven588.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven332 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-83.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven504.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven335 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven650.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven394 days1480 days

Compare to CVI, KOS, BSM, COP, CNQ


In The Past

Northern Oil & Gas's stock fell -39.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/10/2022. A -39.4% loss requires a 65.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)

Better Bets than Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NOG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Northern Oil & Gas

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NOGCVIKOSBSMCOPCNQMedian
NameNorthern.CVR Ener.Kosmos E.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Mkt Price23.9034.311.09-91.8134.1334.13
Mkt Cap2.33.40.5-114.371.33.4
Rev LTM2,1937,2981,39143159,78844,5214,746
Op Inc LTM693302-10527812,5499,022497
FCF LTM-141-146-1312247,0888,12447
FCF 3Y Avg-313240-1823718,9108,284305
CFO LTM1,48324227433619,93514,770909
CFO 3Y Avg1,35753260343720,72013,874980

Growth & Margins

NOGCVIKOSBSMCOPCNQMedian
NameNorthern.CVR Ener.Kosmos E.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Rev Chg LTM1.5%-7.2%-22.1%-8.5%8.2%8.3%-2.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.9%-10.7%-14.5%-16.4%-6.6%-2.4%-8.7%
Rev Chg Q-5.7%6.1%-23.7%1.9%15.3%6.4%4.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%1.5%-6.5%0.5%3.4%1.5%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM31.6%4.1%-7.6%64.3%21.0%20.3%20.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg39.6%6.3%24.7%66.2%24.1%21.9%24.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.9%8.7%-11.4%1.0%-1.0%-4.3%-1.9%
CFO/Rev LTM67.6%3.3%19.7%77.9%33.3%33.2%33.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg65.9%6.0%35.9%88.7%35.6%32.8%35.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-6.4%-2.0%-9.4%52.0%11.9%18.2%4.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17.1%2.3%-11.0%73.9%15.3%19.6%8.8%

Valuation

NOGCVIKOSBSMCOPCNQMedian
NameNorthern.CVR Ener.Kosmos E.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Mkt Cap2.33.40.5-114.371.33.4
P/S1.10.50.6-2.01.51.1
P/EBIT5.811.0-8.2-8.17.67.6
P/E13.322.1-2.4-13.310.013.3
P/CFO1.615.12.9-5.94.54.5
Total Yield14.6%4.5%-41.5%-10.8%17.1%10.8%
Dividend Yield7.1%0.0%0.0%-3.3%7.1%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-9.0%7.3%-11.8%-6.9%12.0%6.9%
D/E1.00.53.8-0.20.30.5
Net D/E1.00.33.7-0.10.30.3

Returns

NOGCVIKOSBSMCOPCNQMedian
NameNorthern.CVR Ener.Kosmos E.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
1M Rtn8.4%-6.8%-26.4%-4.6%6.8%4.6%
3M Rtn-5.3%11.1%-35.1%--2.1%10.7%-2.1%
6M Rtn-12.5%46.6%-39.8%-8.7%13.4%8.7%
12M Rtn-41.7%80.6%-71.4%--10.4%5.1%-10.4%
3Y Rtn-22.9%20.5%-83.0%--16.5%31.6%-16.5%
1M Excs Rtn8.4%-6.8%-26.3%-4.7%6.8%4.7%
3M Excs Rtn-12.0%5.4%-42.0%--8.6%4.9%-8.6%
6M Excs Rtn-27.3%31.8%-54.5%--6.0%-1.4%-6.0%
12M Excs Rtn-55.3%63.8%-85.9%--25.9%-7.2%-25.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-93.3%-66.0%-155.2%--90.4%-39.2%-90.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties2,166    
Gain (Loss) on Commodity Derivatives, Net -415-478228-129
Natural Gas and Natural gas liquids (NGL) Revenues 5112021927
Oil Revenues 1,475773305575
Other 0 00
Total2,1661,571497552472


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,060,081
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.6%
Average Daily Volume2,263,113
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.86
Basic Shares Quantity97,123,889
Short % of Basic Shares20.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021