Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4%, FCF Yield is 7.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Key risks
VAL key risks include [1] a projected drop in near-term revenues and Adjusted EBITDA due to fewer operating days as existing contracts conclude without immediate follow-on work.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Energy Supply & Security. Themes include Offshore Oil & Gas Drilling, and Deepwater Energy Solutions.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4%, FCF Yield is 7.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Energy Supply & Security. Themes include Offshore Oil & Gas Drilling, and Deepwater Energy Solutions.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.4%
6 Key risks
VAL key risks include [1] a projected drop in near-term revenues and Adjusted EBITDA due to fewer operating days as existing contracts conclude without immediate follow-on work.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VAL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Valaris (VAL) experienced an approximate -0.1% movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, influenced by a combination of company-specific developments and broader market dynamics.

**1. Valaris secured significant new drilling contracts, bolstering its backlog.** In December 2025, Valaris was awarded a multi-year, $300 million contract by Shell for its drillship VALARIS DS-8, slated to commence in the first quarter of 2027. This contract significantly enhanced its existing backlog. Additionally, in October 2025, the company announced new contracts and extensions totaling $190 million, including a five-well contract with BP in Egypt valued at $140 million. These contract awards improved long-term revenue visibility.

**2. The company reported a strong beat on its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share.** On October 29, 2025, Valaris announced third-quarter results, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65, substantially surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of $1.00. Despite beating EPS, total operating revenues for the quarter were $596 million, also exceeding analyst expectations.

**3. Broader concerns regarding oil market oversupply created a cautious industry outlook.** Forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicated an anticipated oversupply in global crude oil markets, driven by robust non-OPEC+ production growth and moderating global demand. This outlook suggested potential downward pressure on crude oil prices, which could lead to reduced drilling activity and investment in the offshore sector.

**4. Analyst sentiment remained mixed, contributing to a neutral stance on the stock.** During the period, analyst ratings and price targets showed a varied perspective on Valaris. While some firms, such as Citigroup and BTIG Research, raised their price targets in October and November 2025, and Zacks Research upgraded its rating, other analysts maintained "hold" or "neutral" recommendations. For example, Clarkson Capital lowered its rating from "buy" to "neutral" in September 2025. The average 1-year price target from brokerages was approximately $54.06.

**5. Valaris experienced a decline in total operating revenues during the third quarter of 2025.** Despite the strong EPS beat, the company's Q3 2025 total operating revenues of $596 million represented a decrease from the $615 million reported in Q2 2025, and a 7.4% decline compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This revenue contraction, even with improved profitability per share, may have tempered overall investor optimism.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VAL Return88%1%-35%13%
Peers Return40%-34%-7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VAL Win Rate71%58%33%33%67% 
Peers Win Rate67%50%35%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VAL Max Drawdown0%-19%-40%-35% 
Peers Max Drawdown-7%-40%-48% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NE, RIG, SDRL, BORR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVALS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven103 days464 days

Compare to FTI, WFRD, NE, RIG, HP


In The Past

Valaris's stock fell -37.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2022. A -37.7% loss requires a 60.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Valaris (VAL)

Better Bets than Valaris (VAL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.4%9.4%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.1%27.1%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.0%-3.0%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.4%9.4%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.1%27.1%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.0%-3.0%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Valaris

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VALNERIGSDRLBORRMedian
NameValaris Noble Transoce.Seadrill Borr Dri. 
Mkt Price49.6328.523.9530.483.7228.52
Mkt Cap3.54.53.81.91.03.5
Rev LTM2,4163,4483,8741,3641,0242,416
Op Inc LTM54863660134356548
FCF LTM250392482-106-56250
FCF 3Y Avg-642491--105-31
CFO LTM59990160619206599
CFO 3Y Avg417722396-107407

Growth & Margins

VALNERIGSDRLBORRMedian
NameValaris Noble Transoce.Seadrill Borr Dri. 
Rev Chg LTM6.8%24.3%16.9%-9.3%5.8%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-59.6%14.6%13.9%45.4%30.0%
Rev Chg Q-7.4%-0.3%8.4%2.5%14.7%2.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.9%-0.1%2.1%0.7%3.6%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM22.7%18.5%15.5%2.5%34.7%18.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.6%21.8%5.9%14.3%33.0%14.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%-2.2%2.0%-1.6%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM24.8%26.1%15.6%1.4%20.1%20.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.3%24.3%11.6%-12.1%15.7%
FCF/Rev LTM10.3%11.4%12.4%-7.8%-5.5%10.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.9%8.2%-1.5%--10.9%-2.2%

Valuation

VALNERIGSDRLBORRMedian
NameValaris Noble Transoce.Seadrill Borr Dri. 
Mkt Cap3.54.53.81.91.03.5
P/S1.41.30.81.40.71.3
P/EBIT4.78.1-1.2117.12.24.7
P/E8.619.8-1.055.110.210.2
P/CFO5.85.04.998.63.65.0
Total Yield11.6%8.6%-97.8%1.8%11.0%8.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.6%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.3%4.9%2.5%--8.7%0.6%
D/E0.30.42.10.32.80.4
Net D/E0.10.31.80.12.50.3

Returns

VALNERIGSDRLBORRMedian
NameValaris Noble Transoce.Seadrill Borr Dri. 
1M Rtn-11.6%-3.3%-3.2%-0.6%17.7%-3.2%
3M Rtn-5.3%-4.3%16.2%-9.8%22.0%-4.3%
6M Rtn8.6%2.0%27.8%7.1%66.1%8.6%
12M Rtn15.2%1.4%7.6%-18.3%-1.6%1.4%
3Y Rtn-17.6%-5.3%-7.7%5.2%-9.2%-7.7%
1M Excs Rtn-12.3%-4.0%-3.9%-1.3%17.0%-3.9%
3M Excs Rtn-7.3%-4.8%12.8%-9.4%19.0%-4.8%
6M Excs Rtn-3.8%-10.4%15.4%-5.3%53.7%-3.8%
12M Excs Rtn2.8%-11.8%-8.7%-31.4%-10.6%-10.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-85.0%-73.6%-67.4%-63.7%-75.1%-73.6%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Floaters949700
Jackups660744
Aramco Rowan Offshore Drilling Company (ARO)497460
Other176158
Reconciling Items-497-460
Total1,7841,602


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Jackups102169
Other9677
Floaters81-30
Aramco Rowan Offshore Drilling Company (ARO)4336
Reconciling Items-268-214
Total5437


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,742,617
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.8%
Average Daily Volume811,830
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.54
Basic Shares Quantity70,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20252.2%-5.9%2.0%
7/30/2025-0.1%-1.1%0.9%
4/30/202510.0%12.3%16.4%
2/19/20254.1%-13.3%-5.7%
10/30/20243.7%7.1%-5.3%
7/31/2024-6.4%-20.1%-23.1%
5/2/20241.5%14.9%20.8%
2/22/20243.6%-4.1%12.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10810
# Negative101210
Median Positive3.9%3.3%13.1%
Median Negative-3.3%-3.0%-5.3%
Max Positive10.0%14.9%20.8%
Max Negative-9.0%-20.1%-23.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
93020211102202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Dibowitz AntonPresident & CEO3062025Buy33.917,500254,3148,490,747Form