Valaris (VAL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $49.6 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Valaris (VAL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $49.6Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4%, FCF Yield is 7.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Key risksVAL key risks include [1] a projected drop in near-term revenues and Adjusted EBITDA due to fewer operating days as existing contracts conclude without immediate follow-on work. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Supply & Security. Themes include Offshore Oil & Gas Drilling, and Deepwater Energy Solutions. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4%, FCF Yield is 7.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Supply & Security. Themes include Offshore Oil & Gas Drilling, and Deepwater Energy Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.4% |
| Key risksVAL key risks include [1] a projected drop in near-term revenues and Adjusted EBITDA due to fewer operating days as existing contracts conclude without immediate follow-on work. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VAL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Valaris (VAL) experienced an approximate -0.1% movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, influenced by a combination of company-specific developments and broader market dynamics.
**1. Valaris secured significant new drilling contracts, bolstering its backlog.** In December 2025, Valaris was awarded a multi-year, $300 million contract by Shell for its drillship VALARIS DS-8, slated to commence in the first quarter of 2027. This contract significantly enhanced its existing backlog. Additionally, in October 2025, the company announced new contracts and extensions totaling $190 million, including a five-well contract with BP in Egypt valued at $140 million. These contract awards improved long-term revenue visibility.
**2. The company reported a strong beat on its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share.** On October 29, 2025, Valaris announced third-quarter results, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65, substantially surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of $1.00. Despite beating EPS, total operating revenues for the quarter were $596 million, also exceeding analyst expectations.
**3. Broader concerns regarding oil market oversupply created a cautious industry outlook.** Forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicated an anticipated oversupply in global crude oil markets, driven by robust non-OPEC+ production growth and moderating global demand. This outlook suggested potential downward pressure on crude oil prices, which could lead to reduced drilling activity and investment in the offshore sector.
**4. Analyst sentiment remained mixed, contributing to a neutral stance on the stock.** During the period, analyst ratings and price targets showed a varied perspective on Valaris. While some firms, such as Citigroup and BTIG Research, raised their price targets in October and November 2025, and Zacks Research upgraded its rating, other analysts maintained "hold" or "neutral" recommendations. For example, Clarkson Capital lowered its rating from "buy" to "neutral" in September 2025. The average 1-year price target from brokerages was approximately $54.06.
**5. Valaris experienced a decline in total operating revenues during the third quarter of 2025.** Despite the strong EPS beat, the company's Q3 2025 total operating revenues of $596 million represented a decrease from the $615 million reported in Q2 2025, and a 7.4% decline compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This revenue contraction, even with improved profitability per share, may have tempered overall investor optimism.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VAL Return | � | � | 88% | 1% | -35% | 13% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 40% | -34% | -7% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VAL Win Rate | � | 71% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 67% | 50% | 35% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VAL Max Drawdown | � | � | 0% | -19% | -40% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -7% | -40% | -48% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NE, RIG, SDRL, BORR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 103 days | 464 days |
Compare to FTI, WFRD, NE, RIG, HP
In The Past
Valaris's stock fell -37.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2022. A -37.7% loss requires a 60.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Can Valaris Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| Valaris vs Cal-Maine Foods: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Valaris vs Noble: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Valaris Stock vs Competition: Who Wins? | Peer Comparison | ||
| VAL Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Valaris (VAL) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Time To Buy Valaris Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Valaris (VAL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Valaris (VAL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Valaris (VAL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 12th, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 31st, 2025 | ||
| Big Decline for SLB, but Do VAL’s Margins and Growth Give It the Edge? | July 19th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Valaris
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,416 |
| Op Inc LTM | 548 |
| FCF LTM | 250 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -31 |
| CFO LTM | 599 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 407 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 30.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 4.7 |
| P/E | 10.2 |
| P/CFO | 5.0 |
| Total Yield | 8.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -7.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -73.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Floaters | 949 | 700 |
| Jackups | 660 | 744 |
| Aramco Rowan Offshore Drilling Company (ARO) | 497 | 460 |
| Other | 176 | 158 |
| Reconciling Items | -497 | -460 |
| Total | 1,784 | 1,602 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Jackups | 102 | 169 |
| Other | 96 | 77 |
| Floaters | 81 | -30 |
| Aramco Rowan Offshore Drilling Company (ARO) | 43 | 36 |
| Reconciling Items | -268 | -214 |
| Total | 54 | 37 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.2% | -5.9% | 2.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.1% | -1.1% | 0.9% |
| 4/30/2025 | 10.0% | 12.3% | 16.4% |
| 2/19/2025 | 4.1% | -13.3% | -5.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.7% | 7.1% | -5.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -6.4% | -20.1% | -23.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 1.5% | 14.9% | 20.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | 3.6% | -4.1% | 12.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 3.3% | 13.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.0% | -5.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.0% | 14.9% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.0% | -20.1% | -23.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Dibowitz Anton | President & CEO | 3062025 | Buy | 33.91 | 7,500 | 254,314 | 8,490,747 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |