Viper Energy (VNOM)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $37.93 | Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Viper Energy (VNOM)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $37.93Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 5.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.7% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -166% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% | Key risksVNOM key risks include [1] its reliance on third-party operators for all acreage development and [2] significant asset concentration in the Permian Basin. | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 54% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 5.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 54% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -166% |
| Key risksVNOM key risks include [1] its reliance on third-party operators for all acreage development and [2] significant asset concentration in the Permian Basin. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VNOM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Viper Energy's (VNOM) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to today:
1. Negative Market Reaction to Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: Despite Viper Energy Inc. (VNOM) exceeding its earnings per share and revenue forecasts for the third quarter of 2025, the stock experienced a decline of 2.11% on November 4, 2025, with an additional 1.14% decrease in premarket trading. This "sell the news" event indicated investor skepticism or profit-taking despite positive financial performance.
2. Recent Bearish Trend and Significant Price Decline in December 2025: Leading up to December 19, 2025, Viper Energy's stock price decreased in 7 out of 10 trading days, resulting in an overall decline of -6.78% during that short period. This recent bearish momentum significantly contributed to the overall negative movement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VNOM Return | � | � | � | � | 65% | -17% | � |
| Peers Return | -3% | 73% | 91% | -32% | 115% | -19% | 280% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VNOM Win Rate | � | � | � | 100% | 58% | 17% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VNOM Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -3% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -60% | 0% | -20% | -45% | -9% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
VNOM has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VNOM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Viper Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 468.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| Rev LTM | 981 |
| Op Inc LTM | 614 |
| FCF LTM | -867 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -154 |
| CFO LTM | 685 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 595 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 27.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 58.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 64.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 71.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 70.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 72.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -67.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| P/S | 15.7 |
| P/EBIT | 28.9 |
| P/E | 33.2 |
| P/CFO | 22.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -63.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -3.0% | -0.3% | 7.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 7.5% | ||
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -0.3% | |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | ||
| Max Negative | -3.0% | -0.3% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |